Shohozan goes it alone - the veteran poll 2021

[Jejima]

Shohozan is the oldest sekitori (a rikishi ranked in either Makunouchi or Juryo). He will be turning 37 in February.

He had a year in 2020, going MK in all five of the bashos that took place. He dropped from M7E in January 2020 to J2W in November 2020. He will probably be ranked around J5 on the January 2021 banzuke.

Is 2021 the year when he decides to hang up his mawashi?

Please include your predictions (be as precise as you can!) in the comments below. 

Please also include in your comment your guess for either

a) Shohozani's rank on the January 2022 banzuke  

or

b) Shohozan's final banzuke rank before he goes intai in 2021

(These might well be used as a tie-breaker!)

 

Previous poll:

2020

Edited November 25, 2020 by Jejima

[just_some_guy]

I predict he goes 6-9 and retires before the next banzuke is created, so ends wherever he lands next basho... Let's say Juryo 6w.

[sahaven111]

He retires at J12w

[Karasukurai]

I reckon he'll bomb in January and March then will retire at around J13w to avoid being sent to Makushita. It would be great to see him get his mojo back but I fear his sumo basho days are extremely limited.

[Kashunowaka]

Final rank J9e.

[Pitinosato]

b) J8w 

[hakutorizakura]

Intai before basho.

[MumboJumbo]

Retires at J4w.

[Godango]

Intai at J11w.

[WAKATAKE]

Makushita 2E due to bad banzuke luck

[Shatsume]

Looking at the guys he's likely to fight in January, I think he will have one last brawling hurrah, get repromoted to makuuchi then slide all the way down to bottom of juryo to retire at his home basho. 

[Churaumi]

I think he'll go 5-10 in January and pull the plug before March. I just don't see him having much in the tank.

[Jejima]

I have learnt over the years that it is usually best not to predict the retirement of the 'oldie' in the annual poll. I think that he still has some fight in him. I don't think that he will get promoted back to Makunouchi, but he can certainly spend a year chilling in Juryo, getting smallish MKs (6-9 and 7-8s) and a couple of small KKs (8-7). 

So, I think that there will be a 2022 poll for Shohozan too!  

[Oshirokita]

Shohozan's record versus Maegashira shows a distinct decline.

2018 - 38W 30L

2019 - 40W 43L

2020 - 15W 38L

 

I think he goes 5-10 in January dropping to J10e. He will enter the March basho, get a few losses and retire before the May banzuke is released.

[Morty]

I don't think he will finish the year on the banzuke, and I don't think he will get back to makuuchi. Probable drop to makushita (Ms2) then intai

[Jejima]

By far the majority of us think that he will retire this year, with nearly half of us thinking that it will be this year.

Almost two-thirds of us think that he won't have any KKs at all this year. The MK in the January basho means that that is on the cards.

6-9 is the slightly preferred prediction for Shohozan's best record this year. He could achieve that in January if he wins on the final day. Everyone predicting 4 or fewer  as the best record (one eighth of us), well you are wrong.

Let's see who wins this poll's yusho at the end of the year (or possibly earlier, if he does go intai).

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Jejima

[Jejima]

Shohozan's records in 2021 were....

January: J4E (5-10)
March:  J8W (8-7)
May: J6E (8-7)
July: J1W (5-10)
September: J4E (10-5)
November: M17W (4-11)

Is it just me, or has he had more banzuke luck than average this year?

I have not heard of any retirement news, so I presume that he will be fighting in Juryo in January (around J4 or J5 with his banzuke luck?).

Only  Kotononami, ChickyStarr and Jejima correctly predicted no retirement* in 2021.

He managed three kachikoshis, as predicted by just ChickyStarr.

His best record was 10-5, as predicted by only Shatsume. ChickyStarr came close with a 9-6 prediction.

Shatsume was one off with question two.

Therefore, the yusho here goes to @ChickyStarr , with a Jun-Yusho for @Shatsume.

*However*, if there is an intai announcement by Shohozan in December (as predicted by Shatsume), there will be a mono-ii, with the Yusho then going to Shatsume.

*probably