WAKATAKE

Japanese Yusho Resurgence? (A second drought)

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As we all know, there was a ten year drought of yusho being won by Japanese born rikishi between 2006 (Tochiazuma) and 2016 (Kotoshogiku). Since then, there has been a Japanese born rikishi that have been able to win every calendar year since then. However there is a chance to break an ever longer drought this year related to Japanese and the yusho.

In 2001, 5 of the 6 yusho that year were won by Japanese born rikishi. Since 2002, the majority of yusho in each calendar year have been won by foreign born rikishi, with Asashoryu even dominating the scene in 2005 by being the only wrestler to win all yusho in a calendar year.

Should any of the leaders besides Terunofuji win the yusho for November 2020 (Takakeisho, Shimanoumi, Terunofuji, Ryuden) this will be the first year since 2001 where Japanese born rikishi won the majority of the yusho, ending a 19 year drought.

Do they have a chance???

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1 hour ago, WAKATAKE said:

As we all know, there was a ten year drought of yusho being won by Japanese born rikishi between 2006 (Tochiazuma) and 2016 (Kotoshogiku). Since then, there has been a Japanese born rikishi that have been able to win every calendar year since then. However there is a chance to break an ever longer drought this year related to Japanese and the yusho.

In 2001, 5 of the 6 yusho that year were won by Japanese born rikishi. Since 2002, the majority of yusho in each calendar year have been won by foreign born rikishi, with Asashoryu even dominating the scene in 2005 by being the only wrestler to win all yusho in a calendar year.

Should any of the leaders besides Terunofuji win the yusho for November 2020 (Takakeisho, Shimanoumi, Terunofuji, Ryuden) this will be the first year since 2001 where Japanese born rikishi won the majority of the yusho, ending a 19 year drought.

Do they have a chance???

Considering Shimanoumi and Takakeisho are the frontrunners, I'd say the chances are pretty good. Also, the drought is really down to Asashoryu and Hakuho; with two dai-yokozuna back to back who aren't Japanese, there's bound to be a majority drought.

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The word "resurgence" is not the one I'd use if I started this thread. No offense to @WAKATAKE.   I think the one foreigner per heya policy is bearing fruit.  That and the fact that there is no Mongolian rikishi good enough to follow the footsteps of Kak, Hak,  or Haruma.  So, no, this isn't a resurgence.  This is being done by design.  I think the majority of future yusho will belong to Japanese born rikishi.  Hak and Kak are in their final twilight years and I don't see any promising (yusho wise) foreign rikishi.  Teruofuji excepted.  The quality of top-level sumo is no more, relatively speaking.  Sad but true.  For those who are getting into sumo now, you missed the golden years of yokozuna sumo.  

Edited by robnplunder
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10 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

The word "resurgence" is not the one I'd use if I started this thread. No offense to @WAKATAKE.   I think the one foreigner per heya policy is bearing fruit.  That and the fact that there is no Mongolian rikishi good enough to follow the footsteps of Kak, Hak,  or Haruma.  So, no, this isn't a resurgence.  This is being done by design.  I think the majority of future yusho will belong to Japanese born rikishi.  Hak and Kak are in their final twilight years and I don't see any promising (yusho wise) foreign rikishi.  Teruofuji excepted.  The quality of top-level sumo is no more, relatively speaking.  Sad but true.  For those who are getting into sumo now, you missed the golden years of yokozuna sumo.  

To add to that, the "desurgence" only started when Oshima-oyakata invited 6 Mongolians in around the 90s. So you had a good sharp shock to the system which, as robnplunder mentioned, has been carefully smoothed out and regulated in the meantime. The next big crowd will be led by Kotoshoho with Hoshoryu and Naya chasing him, but till we get there, we're going to see ish yokozuna performances from any of the current ozeki who make the rope.

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33 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Teruofuji excepted.

Funnily enough, I’ve started wondering if just as Hakuho buggers off Terunofuji is just going to slot in place as the regular yusho winner. If he stays healthy, he’s a beast. It’d be kind of amusing to see the Kyokai finally shake off the Mongolian dominance only to immediately have the one decent Mongolian left be the successor.

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16 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

If he stays healthy, he’s a beast.

That's a very big if. I don't see Terunofuji going all 6 honbasho a year without at least 1 if not 2 kyujo like he did last basho, and that will not go down well with the NSK/YDC after all the noise they're making about Hakuho and Kakuryu's attendance (and to a lesser extent Asanoyama and Shodai's kyujos).

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7 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

That's a very big if. I don't see Terunofuji going all 6 honbasho a year without at least 1 if not 2 kyujo like he did last basho, 

Agreed.  That makes it difficult for him to get to Yokozuna rank.  

The only immediate foreigner hope is Hoshoryu but his progress is being slowed by his lack of size & strength that comes from it.  He has the skills and age on his side.  So, who knows.  In a year or two, he may be the next Mongolian great.  

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1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

That's a very big if. I don't see Terunofuji going all 6 honbasho a year without at least 1 if not 2 kyujo like he did last basho, and that will not go down well with the NSK/YDC after all the noise they're making about Hakuho and Kakuryu's attendance (and to a lesser extent Asanoyama and Shodai's kyujos).

Maybe. His history is against him for sure, though I slightly suspect his kyujo last time was more tactical than anything, i.e. he’d secured his kachikoshi and sanyaku promotion but had dropped off the pace for the yusho, so took the rest. I imagine if he’s in the yusho hunt, he’d be more likely to stick around.

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11 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Maybe. His history is against him for sure, though I slightly suspect his kyujo last time was more tactical than anything, i.e. he’d secured his kachikoshi and sanyaku promotion but had dropped off the pace for the yusho, so took the rest. I imagine if he’s in the yusho hunt, he’d be more likely to stick around.

I concur his kyujo smacked of being tactical. But it's a lose-lose position. Taking a tactical kyujo doesn't look good and becomes obvious after a while. But if you don't take it, you don't have the rest you need to keep your body healthy in the next basho's yusho hunt.

It ultimately boils down to if Terunofuji's body can hold him up through 90 honbasho days a year. Considering he's already fought through catastrophic injuries and probably has enough existing conditions to claim kyujo at will, not to mention he's one bad bout away from another injury, I think it's fairly safe to say that he won't complete those 90 honbasho days; he'll be extremely lucky if he goes through 75 without incident. If he has to take tactical kyujo for some of the remaining 15, I also think it's further safe to say that it means he won't be in prime shape for some of that 75, which means even asking him to be in yusho contention half the time may be a bit of a tall ask.

So, for the purposes of the original question, I think Terunofuji might have another two or three yusho in him, but I don't think he'll succeed to Hakuho and Kakuryu as the continuation of Mongolian dominance. Until Asanoyama and Shodai sort out their head game (and maybe even after that), this current sengoku period might continue and we may see more random yushos; Kotoshoho, Naya, Hoshoryu, and the rest of their cohort need a bit more time to become the next shogun.

Edited by Seiyashi
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4 hours ago, robnplunder said:

The word "resurgence" is not the one I'd use if I started this thread. No offense to @WAKATAKE.   I think the one foreigner per heya policy is bearing fruit.  That and the fact that there is no Mongolian rikishi good enough to follow the footsteps of Kak, Hak,  or Haruma.  So, no, this isn't a resurgence.  This is being done by design.  I think the majority of future yusho will belong to Japanese born rikishi.  Hak and Kak are in their final twilight years and I don't see any promising (yusho wise) foreign rikishi.  Teruofuji excepted.  The quality of top-level sumo is no more, relatively speaking.  Sad but true.  For those who are getting into sumo now, you missed the golden years of yokozuna sumo.  

I used to feel sad that I had never seen Hakuho's, Kakuryu's or Kisenosato's prime or even a glimpse of Asashoryu or Harumafuji. However, I count myself lucky now - not only did I jump in at nearly the last possible minute to witness possibly the greatest yokozuna of our lives, but also how this historic transitional period is going to pan out, which could be equally as exciting, albeit not as flashy. And yes, I agree that there will be a lull in Mongolian success and that is attributed to the one foreigner per heya rule, but I think the Mongolians have gotten a lot more crafty in bypassing the system. They are coming a lot earlier, getting educated and trained in Japan and then claiming Japanese shusshin. Can they really be considered Japanese then? I'm not sure. They are starting to gain success and momentum too. This year, we had our first Mongolian Hakuho Cup champion and university champion. Yes, Terunofuji, Hoshoryu and to a lesser extent Ichinojo are fairly new if we consider the two ancient yokozunas, but in my opinion, they are the last vestiges of Gen 1. People like Hokuseiho, and those amateur champions are Gen 2. Like Terminators - they evolve and learn to adapt to their surroundings and the restrictions the Kyokai places on them. (Laughing...)

Conversely, there hasn't been a shin-juryo stable Japanese in a couple of basho (Midorifuji excepting and Naya perhaps excepting). We are just seeing the same old names again and again. And if the best the Japanese can make are the likes of Shodai and Asanoyama, who are college rikishi and have a limited amount of time to rise to yokozuna (an increasingly popular trend, mind you), or Takakeisho, who yes, is very young and looks very strong now but relies on a very volatile brand of sumo, their troubles have just merely been delayed. I hope Kotoshoho pans out for their sake. 

I'm not saying that there will never be a great Japanese hope again, but what I am saying is we shouldn't hold our breath. We've been absolutely spoiled for super dai-Yokozunas which stretch all the way back to Takanohana. You'd be hard pressed to find even a Kakuryu-level yokozuna for some time. He is a lot more accomplished than most give him credit for. Do you think Shodai and Asanoyama will win 6 yusho if they were promoted to yokozuna? I think there's a good chance they might, but it'll still be a little stretch. 

Edited by pricklypomegranate
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I'm not certain if anyone wrestling now will become a dominant yokozuna. I think there are some good prospects for the rope out there. Takakeisho and Asanoyama could both well do it, Hoshoryu has the lineage and appears to have the work ethic (but his size, though), and Hokuseiho could turn into a beast but it's too early to expect more than the next kachikoshi from him. But, I don't see any of them being consistent enough to own the sport like Hakuho, Asashoryu, or even Takanohana. 

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2 hours ago, pricklypomegranate said:

Yes, Terunofuji, Hoshoryu and to a lesser extent Ichinojo are fairly new if we consider the two ancient yokozunas, but in my opinion, they are the last vestiges of Gen 1. People like Hokuseiho, and those amateur champions are Gen 2.

So only three more generations until we get the stealth Mongolians?

That joke doesn’t work as well having just talked about them getting Japanese hometowns.

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Whether you want to call it resurgence or not, 2020 now officially has more yusho won by Japanese born rikishi over foreign rikishi. Tokushoryu, Shodai and Takakeisho were the winners for Japan. Hakuho and Terunofuji represented the foreigners this time around.

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Sorry for bumping a week old thread here, but I'm kind of struggling with the overall narrative. Especially this part (no offence obviously!!!)

On 19/11/2020 at 00:45, robnplunder said:

 I think the one foreigner per heya policy is bearing fruit. 

I don't know that it's possible to fully reach that conclusion, when you look at the fact that there are about as many spaces open for foreigners now as there are occupied. So an awful lot could change in an awfully short amount of time. Part of that might be down to this being a particularly difficult year for scouting, but on the whole, I look at scouting not being a strength for an awful lot of heya. It's not like dominant talent is being blocked by the rule at the moment. The heya that are typically good at scouting/development do typically happen to have strong foreigners in their slot, granted, and a few stables have a pair of them due to mergers and transfers.

Without being dominant - I know this thread started about yusho - foreigners continue to over-index in terms of results. There have been a string of recruits that haven't or don't look like panning out at various levels recently (Torakio, Mitoryu, Yoshoyama so far), but you can still project guys like Roga, Hokutenkai, or even Shishi as being guys who could in a couple years or so factor in the yusho reckoning. I feel like it's less about the rule and more about the desire of foreigner-free heya to actually find, recruit, integrate, and develop the talent. I don't even know if Hoshoryu has got it in him to be honest, and feel like others (e.g. Kiribayama) are likelier to develop into yusho candidates. So I think there will be another wave of foreign yusho winners, and don't know if I'd feel comfortable saying that we're looking at more than a 2-3 year period of Japanese "dominance."

I take the point and will concede though that - if you look at Miyagino for example - Hakuho has been aggressively recruiting and developing talent and surely he would have another foreigner in the stable (I know a family connection is rumoured for after his retirement) if it were already allowed. 

Edited by themistyseas

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28 minutes ago, themistyseas said:

Sorry for bumping a week old thread here, but I'm kind of struggling with the overall narrative. Especially this part (no offence obviously!!!)

I don't know that it's possible to fully reach that conclusion, when you look at the fact that there are about as many spaces open for foreigners now as there are occupied. So an awful lot could change in an awfully short amount of time. Part of that might be down to this being a particularly difficult year for scouting, but on the whole, I look at scouting not being a strength for an awful lot of heya. It's not like dominant talent is being blocked by the rule at the moment. The heya that are typically good at scouting/development do typically happen to have strong foreigners in their slot, granted, and a few stables have a pair of them due to mergers and transfers.

Without being dominant - I know this thread started about yusho - foreigners continue to over-index in terms of results. There have been a string of recruits that haven't or don't look like panning out at various levels recently (Torakio, Mitoryu, Yoshoyama so far), but you can still project guys like Roga, Hokutenkai, or even Shishi as being guys who could in a couple years or so factor in the yusho reckoning. I feel like it's less about the rule and more about the desire of foreigner-free heya to actually find, recruit, integrate, and develop the talent. I don't even know if Hoshoryu has got it in him to be honest, and feel like others (e.g. Kiribayama) are likelier to develop into yusho candidates. So I think there will be another wave of foreign yusho winners, and don't know if I'd feel comfortable saying that we're looking at more than a 2-3 year period of Japanese "dominance."

I take the point and will concede though that - if you look at Miyagino for example - Hakuho has been aggressively recruiting and developing talent and surely he would have another foreigner in the stable (I know a family connection is rumoured for after his retirement) if it were already allowed. 

A big change seems to be the wave of Mongolian kids who move to Japan and go through the Japanese school and Sumo system.  You have a better chance of using your one foreigner wisely with that arrangement than by recruiting some "hick" from Jargalant.  But you never know.

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On 29/11/2020 at 11:49, Yamanashi said:

A big change seems to be the wave of Mongolian kids who move to Japan and go through the Japanese school and Sumo system.  You have a better chance of using your one foreigner wisely with that arrangement than by recruiting some "hick" from Jargalant.  But you never know.

There might not be a big difference in perception of a hick from Jargalant or a hick from Hokkaido (Laughing...)

If a tract of land doesn't have a building, mountain, or rice paddy on it, the big red INAKA stamp comes out.

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I was watching a Kintamayama video of 2017 January basho, day 5.  He makes the "Shodai, next Ozeki" line; meanwhile, Osunaarashi gets oshidashi'd by some new kid named Takakeisho.(Takingaphoto...)

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