Kaminariyuki

Hokuseiho - Shot at a record?

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

Now at 5-0, the question is can he complete the toriteki yusho sweep?

More importantly, 5-0 has guaranteed he cannot be displaced from at least second in the promotion queue: with both Ms1 having 3 losses, Ms2e Shiba having 2, and no other rikishi in the Ms15 zone having a perfect record thus far, he must always take at least the second of the two slots available in juryo, and that is only if Shiba wins out and he loses out.

Ishizaki will be his toughest opponent for the yusho - probably the closest to sekitori quality he will end up fighting before being promoted to juryo proper. The other two contenders, Tsushimanada and Mineyaiba, don't look to pose a threat based on their records since entering sumo.

Edited by Seiyashi

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11 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

More importantly, 5-0 has guaranteed he cannot be displaced from at least second in the promotion queue: with both Ms1 having 3 losses, Ms2e Shiba having 2, and no other rikishi in the Ms15 zone having a perfect record thus far, he must always take at least the second of the two slots available in juryo, and that is only if Shiba wins out and he loses out.

I agree he's in great shape, but theoretically, wouldn't both a 5-2 Shiba and a 4-3 Ms1e be ahead of him should he lose out?

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Reonito said:

I agree he's in great shape, but theoretically, wouldn't both a 5-2 Shiba and a 4-3 Ms1e be ahead of him should he lose out?

Yeah, I forgot the case where both Jokoryu and Tochimaru theoretically end with 4-3s. Of course he makes it academic if he wins one more.

Edited by Seiyashi

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Seiyashi said:
14 hours ago, Reonito said:

I agree he's in great shape, but theoretically, wouldn't both a 5-2 Shiba and a 4-3 Ms1e be ahead of him should he lose out?

Yeah, I forgot the case where both Jokoryu and Tochimaru theoretically end with 4-3s. Of course he makes it academic if he wins one more.

Now guaranteed promotion, after Tochimaru went 1-4 removing himself from any possibility of being ahead of Hokuseiho, and Kotokuzan went 2-8 at J13 to ensure 3 demotees from juryo next basho. Even if Jokoryu and Shiba win out and Hokuseiho loses out, all three are headed to Juryo in that scenario.

Edited by Seiyashi

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7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Now guaranteed promotion, after Tochimaru went 1-4 removing himself from any possibility of being ahead of Hokuseiho, and Kotokuzan went 2-8 at J13 to ensure 3 demotees from juryo next basho. Even if Jokoryu and Shiba win out and Hokuseiho loses out, all three are headed to Juryo in that scenario.

Kotokuzan could theoretcially save himself by winning out, but yeah...that's 11 bouts that would all have to come out in a specific way, and that's not even taking into account other demotion candidates.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

that's 11 bouts that would all have to come out in a specific way

11 bouts coming out in a specific way, in a manner contrary to the form of the rikishi for the majority of the basho, yeah. As much as past performance is no indicator of future success, I don't see sudden meltdowns or surges unless someone starts tinkering with chanko in illegal ways.

Edited by Seiyashi
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2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

11 bouts coming out in a specific way, in a manner contrary to the form of the rikishi for the majority of the basho, yeah. As much as past performance is no indicator of future success, I don't see sudden meltdowns or surges unless someone starts tinkering with chanko in illegal ways.

Gawd, on top of everything else this basho, the last thing we need is a Chanko-Tinkering Scandal.

It looks like your math is correct (and the db agrees); he's a lock (i.e., "kiss of death")

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On 07/07/2021 at 21:36, Seiyashi said:

He virtually stands up straight at the tachiai

I think we can assume that everyone at Miyagino (including Hokuseiho himself) knows that his tachiai looks awful. I have a feeling that if he started in the approved "hard, fast and low" style he would get slapped down regularly and would not be making the best of his physical advantages. I also remember that a couple of basho ago he had his back heavily taped, so his style may be a way of minimising stress in this area.

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Posted (edited)

6-0. Dominated Tsushimanada hard for the yorikiri win. Even without Jokoryu and Kotokuzan losing, he's first in line for one of the two vacated juryo spots. It's now a straight fight between him and Ishizaki for the makushita yusho, possibly the toughest challenge he can get before being promoted.

One new sekitori incoming, and yet another for Miyagino.

Edited by Seiyashi
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I'm sticking with my earlier nickname for the kid, Lumbering Lightening. His style is growing on me. Really, I'm very impressed and even though this basho is sizing up as a doozy, I'm already looking forward to September. I wonder what color mawashi we'll be seeing...

And, for your viewing pleasure:

 

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Actually, you know whose tachiai his reminds me of? Shodai. 

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56 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Actually, you know whose tachiai his reminds me of? Shodai. 

And just about all the great wrestlers of the 70s (the "no hands down" era). As has been noted many times on SF, those guys just stood up and started fighting.

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1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said:
2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Actually, you know whose tachiai his reminds me of? Shodai. 

And just about all the great wrestlers of the 70s (the "no hands down" era). As has been noted many times on SF, those guys just stood up and started fighting.

They didn't need to have fists anywhere near the dohyo though, so visually it looks distinct: just two guys running straight into each other. The "stand up" tachiai is a lot more obvious where you've got to have hands down to start with.

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20 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Actually, you know whose tachiai his reminds me of? Shodai. 

The sumo version of "brace for impact".

This matchup against Ishizaki for the yusho is going to be a very intriguing one.

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Posted (edited)

Zensho yusho for the big man, clean sweep of the toriteki titles (Clappingwildly...)

On his rise he defeated all but 1 of his opponents, the only unavenged loss was to Tsukahara. 

Ya he may have an ugly style, but coming from high school and doing this is pretty special. He majorly improved from year 2 to year 3 in high school, and as a pro won both rematches vs opponents who'd beaten him, so he's getting better still. He will be an interesting one to follow up the sekitori ranks...

Edited by Katooshu
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I love the way he accidentally said "juryo yusho" in his interview before correcting himself to say "makushita yusho." His head's already in the next tournament.

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6 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

 

This matchup against Ishizaki for the yusho is going to be a very intriguing one.

I'd say it lived up to expectations. Very entertaining bout. Well earned victory over the impressive physique of Ishizaki.

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Guy has kept his promise to win a Yusho from each division to Sekitorihood. Now he needs two more scalps to make it 6/6.

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Seeing most of his bouts this basho, I wonder if Takayasu-style sumo suits him strategically: take a big hit at the tachiai, nullify whatever the opponent does, then wear them down and shut down their angles with his size. His ability to absorb attacks without being braced against the tawara is impressive.

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1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Seeing most of his bouts this basho, I wonder if Takayasu-style sumo suits him strategically: take a big hit at the tachiai, nullify whatever the opponent does, then wear them down and shut down their angles with his size.

Much like an early version of Terunofuji.

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Posted (edited)

Now, to bring this topic back on track after a detour into becoming Hokuseiho's fan club, the next relevant record that Hokuseiho can match or even beat is going to be fastest progress to makuuchi from hatsu dohyo. The current record holder is Jokoryu, with 9 tournaments (counting maezumo); Hokuseiho is sitting at 7.

Hokuseiho is likely to end up anywhere between J8-J13 with a 7-0 from Ms2. From that relatively low rank, only a zensho will send him to makuuchi immediately and have him as the new record holder with 8 basho. However, it's more reasonable that he gets two double-digit KKs in juryo and ties the record.

FWIW I don't think he's going to go zensho, so he's probably at best tying the record but not beating it. That said, we shall see.

Edited by Seiyashi

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1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Now, to bring this topic back on track after a detour into becoming Hokuseiho's fan club, the next relevant record that Hokuseiho can match or even beat is going to be fastest progress to makuuchi from hatsu dohyo. The current record holder is Jokoryu, with 9 tournaments (counting maezumo); Hokuseiho is sitting at 7.

Hokuseiho is likely to end up anywhere between J8-J13 with a 7-0 from Ms2. From that relatively low rank, only a zensho will send him to makuuchi immediately and have him as the new record holder with 8 basho. However, it's more reasonable that he gets two double-digit KKs in juryo and ties the record.

FWIW I don't think he's going to go zensho, so he's probably at best tying the record but not beating it. That said, we shall see.

I think whoever keeps track of the records should do well to consider that in only six of his seven basho was Hokuseihou actually allowed to fight.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Atenzan said:

I think whoever keeps track of the records should do well to consider that in only six of his seven basho was Hokuseihou actually allowed to fight.

For avoidance of doubt I checked Jokoryu's record: his record of 9 is inclusive of maezumo but exclusive of his debut tournament in makuuchi. My computing of 7 for Hokuseiho to reach juryo likewise includes maezumo, so he has 2 basho within which to tie Jokoryu's record and reach makuuchi within 9 fighting basho - in other words, I've excluded the forced COVID kyujo from January this year.

IMO the correct solution is to consider him either first or joint first, if he does break or tie the record, but caveat it to say he was forced to sit out one tournament which had no effect on his ranking, similar to how Tsunenohana and Tochigiyama's zensho are caveated as including draws, holds, and rest days.

Edited by Seiyashi
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Posted (edited)

OK, what is clearly evident from the bouts over the last few bash - you do not want the big kid getting a double-over-the-shoulder grip on your mawashi. Not at all good. It's difficult not to like this style, although I'm still getting used to it. I also suspect that a few folks in juryo may be able to slow the rising star's ascent. But, nothing short of serious injury is going to prevent him from rising very high, maybe to the pinnacle by and by.

 

Edited by Kaminariyuki
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Hokuseiho is departing the offensive only realm of the lower ranks and entering the offensive/defensive paid ranks.  Repeat matches and personal contact are a rarity in the lower ranks.  In the paid ranks, degeiko and repeated contacts begin.  He will now face the familiarity that often becomes the downfall of rapidly rising unknowns.  The challenge begins. 

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