Hokuseiho - Shot at a record?

[Katooshu 3,135]

6-1 finish at Ms9 

Still looks slow and awkward at times, but, for the most part, when he gets a grip he moves guys back and out like they weigh nothing. Very good result for a 19-year old in his 5th basho, and clearly surpassing Kitanowaka and Tochikamiyama, who tended to get the better of him in high school.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Katooshu

[Seiyashi 4,071]

He needs some speed training from Hakuho oyakata. If he can move a bit faster than he is now he'll be unstoppable through Juryo.

[Katooshu 3,135]

Funnily enough, I've seen a few opponents seemingly thrown off by the glacial tachiai. Like expecting a fastball and then getting a changeup! 

I agree though, extra speed wouldn't hurt.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

I don't know if more speed is necessarily the answer. Fast and awkward, you get Hakuyozan.

[Kishinoyama 582]

Looking at the banzuke, I believe that he will be Makushita 3e next time. What is the opinion of the forum GTB experts?

[Gurowake 3,915]

6 hours ago, Kishinoyama said:

Looking at the banzuke, I believe that he will be Makushita 3e next time. What is the opinion of the forum GTB experts?

Well, Jokoryu, Tochimaru, and Shiba for sure are ahead of him.  He's probably ahead of Hiradoumi and definitely anyone with an MK in Makushita.  It's not immediately clear whether he'll be ahead of Churanoumi and Chiyonoumi, but going by my numbers I'd say he will be - Churanoumi should be the higher ranked one with a target of ms3w, while I have a target for Hokuseiho as ms2.  So my guess is ms2w, but maybe ms3e behind Hiradoumi, since my historical figures for movements here are a bit wonky, and out of date besides.

[Reonito 1,335]

That's 7 slots claimed in Ms1-Ms5; who fills out the rest of the promotion zone? Seems like Chiyoarashi is a lock. Then Terasawa and Shimazuumi? With Murata just dropping out of the top 10?

Edited May 24, 2021 by Reonito

[Gurowake 3,915]

5 hours ago, Reonito said:

That's 7 slots claimed in Ms1Ms5; who fills out the rest of the promotion zone? Seems like Chiyoarashi is a lock. Then Terasawa and Shimazuumi? With Murata just dropping out of the top 10?

Oops, I missed Chiyoarashi, who I'd say is more likely than not going to be ranked above Hokuseiho.

[robnplunder 974]

On 23/05/2021 at 00:58, Seiyashi said:

He needs some speed training from Hakuho oyakata. If he can move a bit faster than he is now he'll be unstoppable through Juryo.

Unfortunately for the most, speed cannot be taught. He may be unstoppable through Juryo but I just can't see him going beyond mid-Maegishira.   He appears to be much slower than Ichinojo. Best of luck to him though.   

[Katooshu 3,135]

Much slower than Ichinojo....now there's an accomplishment!

I predict no shortage of 'next ozeki' talk about him in the future 

Edited May 25, 2021 by Katooshu

[yohcun 393]

It'll be interesting when he starts facing opponents more than once. When he's no longer an awkward surprise package.

[Kotogouryuu 126]

18 hours ago, robnplunder said:

Unfortunately for the most, speed cannot be taught.

Well.. body control, sumo technique, confidence and ring sense can certainly be taught, all of which can manifest as speed.

[pricklypomegranate 730]

Never mind about the speed. Christ, that tachiai is terrible. 

[Yamanashi 3,724]

3 hours ago, pricklypomegranate said:

Never mind about the speed. Christ, that tachiai is terrible. 

Agreed, sometimes nonexistent (vs Asakoki).  He looks like one of those guys who expects to glom onto his opponents once he gets them in his grasp.  Wait till he gets bowled over by a sekitori oshi specialist.

[Gospodin 187]

On 24/05/2021 at 13:45, robnplunder said:

Unfortunately for the most, speed cannot be taught. He may be unstoppable through Juryo but I just can't see him going beyond mid-Maegishira.   He appears to be much slower than Ichinojo. Best of luck to him though.   

Speed and quickness can be taught, in the sense of making the most of someone´s natural gifts, imho Hokuseiho has ample room here.

(Ichinojo was not slow before he developed that chronic back condition. Actually, he looked surprisingly nimble when he got that jun-yusho in his Makuuchi debut.)

[Kishinoyama 582]

On 23/05/2021 at 13:43, Gurowake said:

....So my guess is ms2w, but maybe ms3e behind Hiradoumi, since my historical figures for movements here are a bit wonky, and out of date besides.

You got it right with ms2w. 

[Kaminariyuki 497]

15 hours ago, Kishinoyama said:

You got it right with ms2w. 

Yes, a KK will clearly put the boy into juryo but somehow I'm guessing that's a tall order. He's done remarkably well in makushita, though. I truly thought the meat grinder would slow him down a bit more.

[Katooshu 3,135]

I think he will KK, and while it's usually enough for a promotion at that rank, it's not always the case. Tochimaru just got denied with that, Kotodaigo was denied last year, and Fujiazuma, Ryuko, and Daiseido were denied in 2019 (Daiseido twice actually, he even got the Ms1w --> Ms1e treatment). Tobizaru also went 5-2 at the rank in 2017 and didn't get into juryo with it.

Edited June 21, 2021 by Katooshu

[Seiyashi 4,071]

It heavily depends on the promotion/demotion picture from juryo. If few slots open in juryo this time then even a strong result may not suffice, but if the bottom drops out of juryo then even a weak 4-3 will do.

[Reonito 1,335]

54 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

It heavily depends on the promotion/demotion picture from juryo. If few slots open in juryo this time then even a strong result may not suffice, but if the bottom drops out of juryo then even a weak 4-3 will do.

Since 2010, 15/20 Ms2w rikishi with 4-3 scores got promoted. For 5-2 it's 10/10.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

24 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Since 2010, 15/20 Ms2w rikishi with 4-3 scores got promoted. For 5-2 it's 10/10.

Right, so one of those cases actually mixed a 5-2 with a 4-3: Haru 2015 has a 5-2 Wakanoshima at Ms3e leapfrog Tokushinho at Ms2e with 4-3. That basho, only 4 promotion slots were open; one had to go to Dewahayate with a 7-0 from within Ms15, and the other three were up for grabs between the 5-2s at Ms1w, Ms2w and Ms3e, and Tokushinho's 4-3 at Ms2e.

In contrast, in Hatsu 2018, more than the bottom fell out of Juryo: 7 demotions! (the modern regular post-war record: pre-war saw 8 demotions, and there was a horrendous 16 demotions in 1967 when juryo was shrunk from 36 to 28 rikishi). As a result, everyone with a KK counting down from the top of makushita got promoted - all the way to 5-2 Ms6e Enho and 4-3 Ms7e Takayoshitoshi (better known as Takanofist Takanofuji).

There can also be particularly tight basho: Natsu 2012 had only 2 promotion slots open up, but the makushita joi almost entirely went MK except for the two eventual promotees, so it didn't matter.

In every of those 10 cases though, there were no cases where the 5-2 was pitted against a better rank/record combination for the promotion though (like say a 6-1 from one rank down, analogous to the Wakanoshima-Tokushinho case). So it's still not a surefire guarantee that a 5-2 gets Hokuseiho promoted, simply because an exact counterfactual hasn't happened. In the worst case scenario, let's say you have a Natsu 2012 situation where you only have 2 slots, there could be a 7-0 in the Ms15 zone combined with a equal or better record from any of the Ms1e, Ms1w or Ms2e, or even a better 6-1 record from a Ms3. On the flip side, if the bottom of Juryo has a meltdown, then really any KK will do even if there is a 7-0 in the Ms15 zone.

One slot will definitely open: Ryuden is at J9 and suspended. The remainder of the lower bits of juryo is a bit of a motley crew: Bushozan, Sadanoumi, Midorifuji, Nishikigi, Kyokushuho, Nishikifuji, Daishomaru, Daishoho, Oho, Kaisho, Kotokuzan, Abi, and Yago. All of them except Daishomaru, Sadanoumi, and Kyokushuho were KK last time out. Looking at Hokuseiho's competition in makushita, no really big names really jump out. There's solid competitors in the area but no Abi or notable ex-sekitori about to go on a rampage. So assuming most of the makushita joi will perform reasonably average, it really depends on how the bottom of juryo shakes out and makes slots available.

Edited June 21, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Kaminariyuki 497]

Well, I'm pulling for the kid but I'll be surprised if he gets yet another KK this basho.

Of course, I was surprised at the last KK, though, so I'm not the crystal ball on this one.

[Kaminariyuki 497]

I should have said "probably" rather than "clearly" and saved a couple of y'all having to jump into sumodb to check the stats. Even though I suspect it wasn't much of an inconvenience...

 

[Reonito 1,335]

Yeah the only way to make certain would be to go 7-0, but he's got better than even odds at 4-3, and highly likely with anything stronger.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

One down, 3/4 to go: Hokuseiho starts his Nagoya campaign with a win by yoritaoshi against fellow Ms2 Shiba, a makushita joi stalwart.