Non-K-November basho 2020 Discussion (spoiler space)

[Seiyashi 4,087]

15 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

I see your reasoning, but Miyabiyama was pretty hopeless in comparison. The Kyokai knows it was injury and not lack of ability that cost Terunofuji his rank first time around. He’s got two yusho under his belt and when reasonably healthy he also managed some good numbers at Ozeki too, including back-to-back near-promotion worthy basho around the time Kisenosato got the nod and before he started that spell of kyujo that led to his dramatic fall down the banzuke. I think they’ll show him some leniency.

But in recent times with everyone catching flak to kyujo, it makes for mixed messaging if you say a 8-4-3 can start an ozeki run. I think Terunofuji's health will be a major concern if his ozeki promotion is discussed, and a message we'll hear out of the NSK is "we will promote him if he shows he's healthy enough to compete at the top of the banzuke (regularly)".

[Akinomaki 40,489]

Sansho prediction:

Gino-sho Terunofuji

Kanto-sho Shimanoumi

Shukun-sho: Terunofuji if he wins the yusho

Edited October 3, 2022 by Akinomaki

[Eikokurai 3,437]

18 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

But in recent times with everyone catching flak to kyujo, it makes for mixed messaging if you say a 8-4-3 can start an ozeki run. I think Terunofuji's health will be a major concern if his ozeki promotion is discussed, and a message we'll hear out of the NSK is "we will promote him if he shows he's healthy enough to compete at the top of the banzuke (regularly)".

Yes, that’s a fair point. But then if he gets a JY-D this time and a JY next, that might be enough for them to ignore the kyujo basho completely. The first time he got promoted they basically did that, counting the 8-7 only insofar as it was a kachikoshi at a minimum.

But also, you’re right that his health issues may actually hinder his re-promotion as someone may (will) raise the possibility of his being able to maintain Ozeki-level sumo consistently enough to justify expediting his return to the rank.

Edited November 21, 2020 by Eikokurai

[Morty 1,495]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I would have concurred had they outright cancelled the Olympics. But now that they're trying their darndest to put the Olympics back on, I can see him just going into survival mode and putting out 10-11 wins a basho just to get to August, and then go out in a blaze of glory in Aki and retire on the spot.

Hak doesn't do survival mode. He is the Alpha Male of sumo and he goes out there to win yushos and put everyone else in their place by showing them that he is better than they are. He doesn't know how to do survival mode. Regardless of how old he is, or how injured, or the carrot of the Olympics, he will still do what he always does - go for the yusho, because that's who he is and that's what he does and his pride won't let him do any less. If he is in it until the end he will be contending for the yusho or at least making it hard for other contenders to get it. The only way he is going down is by making other people beat him.

Edited November 21, 2020 by Morty

[Seiyashi 4,087]

3 minutes ago, Morty said:

Hak doesn't do survival mode. He is the Alpha Male of sumo and he goes out there to win yushos and put everyone else in their place by showing them that he is better than they are. He doesn't know how to do survival mode. Regardless of how old he is, or how injured, or the carrot of the Olympics, he will still do what he always does - go for the yusho, because that's who he is and that's what he does and his pride won't let him do any less. If he is in it until the end he will be contending for the yusho or at least making it hard for other contenders to get it.

I would agree, but this time the YDC is watching him like a hawk; if his body is banged up, he no longer has the option of a face-saving kyujo and needs to go the full 15 days. He'll of course do it in the most Hakuho-like way possible, but my fear is that if his health doesn't hold up, he is forced to sacrifice either being an alpha male or making it to the Olympics. The only compromise solution he's done before is to start breaking out the kachiage-harite combo, but that's also going to get the YDC on his case as well.

Of course this is all moot if Hakuho's rehab over the next two months goes swimmingly and he turns in a zensho in January.

[Akinomaki 40,489]

Day 15 is the only one this basho to have sold (once) all tickets, but there are still 5 two person masu seat boxes and 20 chair seat tickets available in the resale http://sumo.pia.jp/ticket11.jsp

[Morty 1,495]

30 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I would agree, but this time the YDC is watching him like a hawk; if his body is banged up, he no longer has the option of a face-saving kyujo and needs to go the full 15 days. He'll of course do it in the most Hakuho-like way possible, but my fear is that if his health doesn't hold up, he is forced to sacrifice either being an alpha male or making it to the Olympics. The only compromise solution he's done before is to start breaking out the kachiage-harite combo, but that's also going to get the YDC on his case as well.

Of course this is all moot if Hakuho's rehab over the next two months goes swimmingly and he turns in a zensho in January.

It's Hak, the normal rules don't apply to him. He won't give a damn what the YDC says and they have zero power to force him to intai anyway. He could sit out the next three basho and the YDC could grumble about it the whole way and he will just ignore them like he always does. If he is in he will be contending. If he loses two of the first four he'll go kyujo. If he isn't fit he'll sit it out for another basho and come back when he's ready. If he can't win he doesn't compete, simple as that. 

[Seiyashi 4,087]

1 minute ago, Morty said:

It's Hak, the normal rules don't apply to him. He won't give a damn what the YDC says and they have zero power to force him to intai anyway. He could sit out the next three basho and the YDC could grumble about it the whole way and he will just ignore them like he always does. If he is in he will be contending. If he loses two of the first four he'll go kyujo. If he isn't fit he'll sit it out for another basho and come back when he's ready. If he can't win he doesn't compete, simple as that. 

As much as I fervently hope you're right and the YDC's toothlessness is exposed, the lead-up to this basho heavily suggests otherwise. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

So with Naya looking to join the sekitori (salaried) ranks, Takakeisho will be in the market for a new tsukebito (man slave).

Any takers? 

[Seiyashi 4,087]

1 minute ago, Amamaniac said:

So with Naya looking to join the sekitori (salaried) ranks, Takakeisho will be in the market for a new tsukebito (man slave).

Any takers? 

Mudoho/Hozan?

[Morty 1,495]

1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

As much as I fervently hope you're right and the YDC's toothlessness is exposed, the lead-up to this basho heavily suggests otherwise. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

In the lead up to the basho he attended degeiko and beat everyone else up, and then still sat out the basho... At this stage he doesn't have to follow the same rules the others do. Kak does, and I doubt he lasts beyond the next basho. But the only way Hak is going Intai is if his shisho puts the papers in, which he won't do unless Hak agrees. Hak will retire when he wants to, which will be when he can't be a contender anymore, in his own mind.  So to go back to my original point, he won't do survival mode, he'll just kyujo if he can't compete and the YDC will whinge and he'll ignore them.

[Kashunowaka 300]

54 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Sansho prediction:

Gino-sho Terunofuji

Kanto-sho Shimanoumi

Shukun-sho: Terunofuji if he wins the tournament

I think that's a good prediction. Hokutofuji has been mentioned in this thread as well but I don't think he will get a sansho this time, although I hope I'm wrong.

[Seiyashi 4,087]

1 minute ago, Kashunowaka said:

1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

Sansho prediction:

Gino-sho Terunofuji

Kanto-sho Shimanoumi

Shukun-sho: Terunofuji if he wins the tournament

I think that's a good prediction. Hokutofuji has been mentioned in this thread as well but I don't think he will get a sansho this time, although I hope I'm wrong.

Is it a hard and fast that the winner of the Shukunsho must either yusho or beat the yusho winner? It feels more appropriate to the name of the award that Shimanoumi gets that and the Kantosho goes to Hokutofuji based on his marathon performances.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

23 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Mudoho/Hozan?

The limited-time-only offer was for Forum members only! 

[dada78641 884]

Beautiful Enho-like sumo in Enho's match today. It's just unfortunate it came from Terutsuyoshi instead of Enho.

[Kashunowaka 300]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Is it a hard and fast that the winner of the Shukunsho must either yusho or beat the yusho winner? It feels more appropriate to the name of the award that Shimanoumi gets that and the Kantosho goes to Hokutofuji based on his marathon performances.

Shukun-sho normally goes hand-in-hand with beating the yokozuna, no yusho required. An example is Mitakeumi in Natsu 2017 who went 8-7, didn't yusho, didn't beat the yusho winner, but did beat two yokozuna. In the absence of yokozuna, it is harder to predict the shukun-sho IMHO. It would certainly have helped Shimanoumi had he defeated either of the two yusho candidates. But your sansho guess is as good as mine. 

Edited November 21, 2020 by Kashunowaka
Edit: speling.

[hakutorizakura 629]

1 hour ago, dada78641 said:

Beautiful Enho-like sumo in Enho's match today. It's just unfortunate it came from Terutsuyoshi instead of Enho.

Teru is actually the more versatile between the two I think. He has more recorded kimarite, plus an attitude. And kintama (balls).

 

[nelimw 80]

So who realistically thinks that Terunofuji will beat Takakeisho twice tomorrow? Honestly I hope he does but my mind is saying "naa that's not going to happen" 

[lackmaker 437]

50 minutes ago, nelimw said:

So who realistically thinks that Terunofuji will beat Takakeisho twice tomorrow? Honestly I hope he does but my mind is saying "naa that's not going to happen" 

Specific factors aside he has a one in four chance.

[Seiyashi 4,087]

1 minute ago, lackmaker said:

53 minutes ago, nelimw said:

So who realistically thinks that Terunofuji will beat Takakeisho twice tomorrow? Honestly I hope he does but my mind is saying "naa that's not going to happen" 

Specific factors aside he has a one in four chance.

Specific factors inside, he's never beaten Takakeisho, so it's probably quite a bit worse than one in four.

[Kaito 292]

26 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Specific factors inside, he's never beaten Takakeisho, so it's probably quite a bit worse than one in four.

Okay, but he really only faced him last tournament. The other meeting, from 3 years ago, was a 1-5-9 tournament for Terunofuji, following knee surgery. He didn't lose because it's a bad matchup; he lost because he couldn't do sumo.

[Seiyashi 4,087]

2 minutes ago, Kaito said:

Okay, but he really only faced him last tournament. The other meeting, from 3 years ago, was a 1-5-9 tournament for Terunofuji, following knee surgery. He didn't lose because it's a bad matchup; he lost because he couldn't do sumo.

I grant you that. Even so in that tournament, Terunofuji had no way of penetrating Takakeisho's offense to get a hold of his belt. Now come to think of it, if Takakeisho has no yotsu game, I haven't seen Terunofuji have a decent oshi game either.

[Highway 46]

Fascinating showdown set for tomorrow. The irresistable pushing vs Terunofuji's scary upper body strength and belt game. I am leaning toward Takakeisho however, as he also has the speed to throw Terunofuji off his game. The latter will have to pull of the performance of his career to win twice in a row tomorrow, but we shall see.

Otherwise, sad to see Enho drop down, he has been this year's sumo showstopper. Convinced he will jump back up though.

[Yamanashi 3,840]

1 hour ago, lackmaker said:

Specific factors aside he has a one in four chance.

I give him even money.

[robnplunder 975]

8 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

While Tubbyzaru didn't get much attention on this thread, I have to say that I have been pleasantly impressed by his performance.  He's definitely got a strong sumo physique and his energy and spirit are refreshing.  What surprises me is how well he seems to have transitioned from Juryo to Makuuchi.  He looks like he belongs in the Top Division, and he is handling guys with much more Top Division experience as though he were their equal. (... just not all the guys) (...yet).

I believe I was screaming on top of my lung on this thread about Tobizaru.     His wins were impressive.  Heck, even his losses were impressive (except his loss against Terunofuji).  For a little guy, he showed a lot of strength and stamina.  If Hoshoryu learns a little bit of that ....

Edited November 21, 2020 by robnplunder