Non-K-November basho 2020 Discussion (spoiler space)

[Seiyashi 4,068]

2 minutes ago, pricklypomegranate said:

Knowing Terunofuji's record against him, I think it's a tsuna run and crazy Hatsu next year. 

This. Next Hatsu is going to be electrifying from the get go, and it's either a horrible basho for the joi or we're going to see a big-name fall/retirement. With Hokutofuji, Daieisho, Takayasu and Mitakeumi in the joi/at komusubi next basho, the sanyaku aren't safe, and there's probably an opening day loss in store for one of the yokozuna or kadoban ozeki.

Just now, Shinobi Steve said:

Tomorrow will be great. Terunofuji can take it if he wants it. Of course it'll be difficult to win twice, but he still has a chance and it'll great for us to watch. 

I don't think Terunofuji can beat Takakeisho twice. Once, maybe, but not two times. 

[Djihi 33]

Great win by Takayusho! Number 200 at that. Takanoshou with solid win too, a great night for Chiganoura. 

[Kaninoyama 1,660]

9 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

Posted October 27
Shimanoumi gets the coveted M17 spot. Expect to see him in the yusho race. 

This prediction held up until Day 14th. Otsukaresama and good job Shimanoumi!

Edited November 21, 2020 by Kaninoyama

[Hakuryuho 334]

While I think that I normally am a rather pessimistic person, I don't think there's a chance in hell Takakeisho is giving up two in a row against Terunofuji.

Is there anyone who says he doesn't deserve this yusho? He's fighting almost flawlessly this basho and even though the pressure has been on him to deliver after both Yokozuna and his fellow Ozeki dropped out he didn't falter under the pressure and showed real Ozeki sumo.

And he would be the first Ozeki to win a basho since what, 2017, when Kisenosato won? That's crazy.

Good luck for tomorrow Takakeisho, bring it home!

[pricklypomegranate 730]

17 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

This. Next Hatsu is going to be electrifying from the get go, and it's either a horrible basho for the joi or we're going to see a big-name fall/retirement. With Hokutofuji, Daieisho, Takayasu and Mitakeumi in the joi/at komusubi next basho, the sanyaku aren't safe, and there's probably an opening day loss in store for one of the yokozuna or kadoban ozeki.

I don't think Terunofuji can beat Takakeisho twice. Once, maybe, but not two times. 

Do you think the YDC will let Hakuho and Kakuryu off with at least 10 wins? I think they will. 

Also, do you think that Takakeisho will make it on his first try? As much as I want a new Japanese yokozuna, I don't think he'll make it first try and miss it just barely. There's just too much at stake here from too many corners. 

Hakuho and Kakuryu fighting for their careers. 

Takakeisho fighting for the rope. 

Shodai and Asanoyama fighting to remain at Ozeki. 

And that's just the upper sanyaku. We've got people trying to kickstart an Ozeki run (Terunofuji), people trying to cement sanyaku status (Kotoshoho) and people just plain trying to claw their way back into makuuchi (Enho). 

I will be keeping a very close eye on the sumo news this next coming months... I know it's still a little early, but who's your prediction to win? 

Edited November 21, 2020 by pricklypomegranate

[Amamaniac 2,078]

Both frontrunners won today, keeping the yusho race exciting.

Terunofuji had to be careful with Shimanoumi.  One mistake and his yusho hopes would have been over.  With his long reach, he managed to get a right inside grip on Shimanoumi's mawashi, and then it was hold on for dear life, just like an American bronco rider.  Teru's grip strength was put to the test and it was up to the test.  It took a while, but Terunofuji finally got a right-hand grip and force/lifted Shianoumi out in the corner.  That was some nice power sumo.

In the final bout, Takakeisho was up against Mitakeumi, the banzuke's resident Suckywake.  In the pre-show, Abema TV's guest commentator, Wakanohana III, warned that Mitakeumi's fighting style is actually well suited for Takakeisho's high thrusts (i.e., Mitakeumi's arms come upwards and inwards when thrusting.  He felt there was a chance for Mitakeumi to cause an upset.  Early in the bout, you could see Mitakeumi's arms countering Takakeisho's attack.  But then, Mitakeumi changed tactics and started slapping from above.  At that point, he couldn't hold his ground and was sent out and down off the ring.

Both frontrunners did what they wanted to do today (i.e., win).  Terunofuji did what he "had to" do (if he wanted to stay in the race).  Takakeisho didn't have to win, but winning gave him a bit of a cushion, so he doesn't absolutely have to win the final bout tomorrow.  If he loses, he will still have a shot in a playoff.  But now if he wins the final bout, he can snag the championship right away.

Spoiler

Speaking of cushions, Takakeisho now has a new zabuton.  He had been using his old zabuton from the Takanohana Stable for the longest time.  Not sure when he started using this new black and gold one.

 

[Eikokurai 3,433]

Yeah, everything is falling into place at the same time for Hatsu to be an incredible basho: two Yokozuna fighting for their careers, Asanoyama and Shodai both kadoban, Takakeisho on a rope run and a very competitive sanyaku/joi with the likes of Terunofuji, Takayasu, Hokutofuji, Takanosho and Mitakeumi all in the mix, two of whom are yusho winners, two are ex-Ozeki and one has seven kinboshi. With so much at stake and no real room for kyujo, it stands to be a classic.

Edited November 21, 2020 by Eikokurai

[Seiyashi 4,068]

7 minutes ago, pricklypomegranate said:

Do you think the YDC will let Hakuho and Kakuryu off with at least 10 wins? I think they will. 

Also, do you think that Takakeisho will make it on his first try? As much as I want a new Japanese yokozuna, I don't think he'll make it first try and miss it just barely. There's just too much at stake here from too many corners. 

Hakuho and Kakuryu fighting for their careers. 

Takakeisho fighting for the rope. 

Shodai and Asanoyama fighting to remain at Ozeki. 

And that's just the upper sanyaku. We've got people trying to kickstart an Ozeki run (Terunofuji), people trying to cement sanyaku status (Kotoshoho) and people just plain trying to claw their way back into makuuchi (Enho). 

I will be keeping a very close eye on the sumo news this next coming months... I know it's still a little early, but who's your prediction to win? 

I think 10 wins will incur tut-tutting but that will save both their careers. I don't know if Hakuho, knowing this, will fight more conservatively to guarantee 10 wins over trying for a 45th. Kakuryu will have to bring everything to the table just to get 10 though.

Considering who's in the joi and in sanyaku next basho, I think Takakeisho will come short. He'll be lucky to take 10 wins, I think, unless half or more of the sanyaku next basho are seriously out of sorts. The only one I can see him beating is Kakuryu (and Mitakeumi if he doesn't lose tomorrow as well).

Asanoyama will either have a great basho or a horrible one. All the pressure from this basho is off, but the heya has changed hands and he's kadoban.

The key next basho isn't just the sanyaku but also the joi. Daieisho, Kotoshoho, Hokutofuji, Takarafuji, and possibly Tamawashi, Tochinoshin and Endo. All of them are well capable of delivering upsets. 

Too many storylines are clashing next basho for everyone to walk away with what they want. 10 years later, if anyone wants to point to one basho as the indication of the change of the guard, Hatsu 2021 might well be it.

Edited November 21, 2020 by Seiyashi

[Amamaniac 2,078]

2 minutes ago, pricklypomegranate said:

I will be keeping a very close eye on the sumo news this next coming months... I know it's still a little early, but who's your prediction to win?

In terms of an early prediction, I would say "Hakuho" – hoping that we at least get a healthy Hakuho in January.  He will definitely be motivated to snag another championship in yet another calendar year.  And 45 yusho is so much better than 44.

However, if he finishes the tournament and loses to two or more Ozeki (and losses the championship), I can see him announcing his retirement.  My concern is that Hakuho has been kyujo for 2+ tournaments straight.  His body may not be firing on all cylinders come January.  It might end up being a case of feeling that his body is up to the task, but it not performing at full capacity when push comes to shove.

My 2¢

[Seiyashi 4,068]

12 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

In terms of an early prediction, I would say "Hakuho" – hoping that we at least get a healthy Hakuho in January.  He will definitely be motivated to snag another championship in yet another calendar year.  And 45 yusho is so much better than 44.

However, if he finishes the tournament and loses to two or more Ozeki (and losses the championship), I can see him announcing his retirement.  My concern is that Hakuho has been kyujo for 2+ tournaments straight.  His body may not be firing on all cylinders come January.  It might end up being a case of feeling that his body is up to the task, but it not performing at full capacity when push comes to shove.

I would have concurred had they outright cancelled the Olympics. But now that they're trying their darndest to put the Olympics back on, I can see him just going into survival mode and putting out 10-11 wins a basho just to get to August, and then go out in a blaze of glory in Aki and retire on the spot.

(Considering how intai papers are filed, I don't see it being possible, but it would be the highest-profile exit to file intai papers on senshuraku with 14-0, win with a 16th zensho, and announce intai at the on-dohyo yusho interview. If Asanoyama won the previous basho and lost 14-1 to a zensho Hakuho, that would be such a fairytale transition.)

Kakuryu is the far bigger risk for Hatsu. So much more is on the line for him with much less room and much less capability on his part.

Edited November 21, 2020 by Seiyashi

[pricklypomegranate 730]

28 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I think 10 wins will incur tut-tutting but that will save both their careers. I don't know if Hakuho, knowing this, will fight more conservatively to guarantee 10 wins over trying for a 45th. Kakuryu will have to bring everything to the table just to get 10 though.

Considering who's in the joi and in sanyaku next basho, I think Takakeisho will come short. He'll be lucky to take 10 wins, I think, unless half or more of the sanyaku next basho are seriously out of sorts. The only one I can see him beating is Kakuryu (and Mitakeumi if he doesn't lose tomorrow as well).

Asanoyama will either have a great basho or a horrible one. All the pressure from this basho is off, but the heya has changed hands and he's kadoban.

The key next basho isn't just the sanyaku but also the joi. Daieisho, Kotoshoho, Hokutofuji, Takarafuji, and possibly Tamawashi, Tochinoshin and Endo. All of them are well capable of delivering upsets. 

Too many storylines are clashing next basho for everyone to walk away with what they want. 10 years later, if anyone wants to point to one basho as the indication of the change of the guard, Hatsu 2021 might well be it.

27 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

In terms of an early prediction, I would say "Hakuho" – hoping that we at least get a healthy Hakuho in January.  He will definitely be motivated to snag another championship in yet another calendar year.  And 45 yusho is so much better than 44.

However, if he finishes the tournament and loses to two or more Ozeki (and losses the championship), I can see him announcing his retirement.  My concern is that Hakuho has been kyujo for 2+ tournaments straight.  His body may not be firing on all cylinders come January.  It might end up being a case of feeling that his body is up to the task, but it not performing at full capacity when push comes to shove.

My 2¢

Damn straight. The basho's not big enough for all of them. Someone has got to give, and I think it might be Kakuryu or one of the Ozekis (whether that's Shodai, Asanoyama or Takakeisho).

With three COVID-19 vaccines seeming to be successful, I can definitely see the Olympics coming. That means, if the Kyokai wants Hakuho out, they are going to have to force him out, and that's a nigh-on impossible task with most of the sanyaku having the quality of three day old Christmas dinner. I can definitely see Hakuho concentrating very hard and fighting conservatively (i.e. almost airtight tachiai, slap and grab, careful foot placement) and him winning at least 10 wins, if not yusho (or even zensho). I would be very shocked if he suddenly panicked and gave a retirement-worthy performance in Hatsu. I think the dream means so much to him that he doesn't care if he cedes the championship, crowns Takekeisho the new yokozuna or gets defeated by a couple of Ozekis. 

As we have seen with Takakeisho, he's pulling a lot more, and with highly motivated and hopefully well-rested Yokozunas and Ozekis (especially Hakuho), that's just not going to fly. I am glad I'm not the only one with this opinion. If Takakeisho makes it against all odds next basho, it's going to be one of the most well-deserved tsuna runs in quite some time. It's difficult to even find an argument against that - his credibility is going to be rock solid as a Yokozuna from day 1. 

Shodai I am less worried about than Asanoyama. I definitely do not want him to choke again. 

I will be very surprised if our Hatsu yusho winner isn't in the top brass - but that doesn't mean we should count them out either - they can majorly crew things up (see Tobizaru, Kotoshoho especially). 

We'll definitely have to see what's happening in the limited degeiko if they are still holding it in. I know it's just degeiko, and not representative of true performance, but it could at least give us some indicators. 

We'll see if my prediction of a Takakeisho yusho is right tomorrrow... 

Edited November 21, 2020 by pricklypomegranate

[Seiyashi 4,068]

25 minutes ago, pricklypomegranate said:

Damn straight. The basho's not big enough for all of them. Someone has got to give, and I think it might be Kakuryu or one of the Ozekis (whether that's Shodai, Asanoyama or Takakeisho).

With three COVID-19 vaccines seeming to be successful, I can definitely see the Olympics coming. That means, if the Kyokai wants Hakuho out, they are going to have to force him out, and that's a nigh-on impossible task with most of the sanyaku having the quality of three day old Christmas dinner. I can definitely see Hakuho concentrating very hard and fighting conservatively (i.e. almost airtight tachiai, slap and grab, careful foot placement) and him winning at least 10 wins, if not yusho (or even zensho). I would be very shocked if he suddenly panicked and gave a retirement-worthy performance in Hatsu. I think the dream means so much to him that he doesn't care if he cedes the championship, crowns Takekeisho the new yokozuna or gets defeated by a couple of Ozekis. 

As we have seen with Takakeisho, he's pulling a lot more, and with highly motivated and hopefully well-rested Yokozunas and Ozekis (especially Hakuho), that's just not going to fly. I am glad I'm not the only one with this opinion. If Takakeisho makes it against all odds next basho, it's going to be one of the most well-deserved tsuna runs in quite some time. It's difficult to even find an argument against that - his credibility is going to be rock solid as a Yokozuna from day 1. 

Shodai I am less worried about than Asanoyama. I definitely do not want him to choke again. 

I will be very surprised if our Hatsu yusho winner isn't in the top brass - but that doesn't mean we should count them out either - they can majorly crew things up (see Tobizaru, Kotoshoho especially). 

We'll definitely have to see what's happening in the limited degeiko if they are still holding it in. I know it's just degeiko, and not representative of true performance, but it could at least give us some indicators. 

We'll see if my prediction of a Takakeisho yusho is right tomorrrow... 

As correct as all of this is, that's only half the story. Intra-sanyaku matches only come into play in week 2. Until then, none of the five senior sanyaku can afford to be dropping random matches to joi in week 1, unless they want a round robin of Takakeisho-Tochinoshin ozeki switcheroo-type bouts.

If the joi had been the joi of this basho, I wouldn't be too worried, but the joi of the next basho (i.e. the senior sanyaku's week 1 opponents) are almost all known giant killers: Daieisho, Kotoshoho, Hokutofuji, Takarafuji, and possibly Tamawashi, Tochinoshin and Endo.

Some of the storylines might unfortunately be wrapped up by the end of week 1. Whatever the results of tomorrow's matches, Daieisho, Hokutofuji, Mitakeumi and Takayasu are likely to be Kakuryu's first four opponents next basho; I don't see Kakuryu exiting this gauntlet with less than 2 losses. Add that to the fact that he's probably the most out of form of all the sanyaku, and that's another 3-5 losses incoming. Kakuryu has very very little room to manuevre next basho.

Edited November 21, 2020 by Seiyashi

[Eikokurai 3,433]

4 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

the joi of the next basho (i.e. the senior sanyaku's week 1 opponents) are all known giant killers: Daieisho, Kotoshoho, Hokutofuji, Takarafuji, and possibly Tamawashi, Tochinoshin and Endo.

I’m not sure I’d put Kotoshoho in the category of known giant killers just yet. :)

He’s beaten two Sekiwake and a Komusubi, which is impressive, but he’s never faced, let alone beaten, a Yokozuna, and his one bout with an Ozeki was a loss. 

I overlooked Daieisho in my joi list above though. He’s definitely one for the Y/O to be wary of.

[pricklypomegranate 730]

25 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

As correct as all of this is, that's only half the story. Intra-sanyaku matches only come into play in week 2. Until then, none of the five senior sanyaku can afford to be dropping random matches to joi in week 1, unless they want a round robin of Takakeisho-Tochinoshin ozeki switcheroo-type bouts.

If the joi had been the joi of this basho, I wouldn't be too worried, but the joi of the next basho (i.e. the senior sanyaku's week 1 opponents) are almost all known giant killers: Daieisho, Kotoshoho, Hokutofuji, Takarafuji, and possibly Tamawashi, Tochinoshin and Endo.

Some of the storylines might unfortunately be wrapped up by the end of week 1. Whatever the results of tomorrow's matches, Daieisho, Hokutofuji, Mitakeumi and Takayasu are likely to be Kakuryu's first four opponents next basho; I don't see Kakuryu exiting this gauntlet with less than 2 losses. Add that to the fact that he's probably the most out of form of all the sanyaku, and that's another 3-5 losses incoming. Kakuryu has very very little room to manuevre next basho.

14 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

I’m not sure I’d put Kotoshoho in the category of known giant killers just yet. :)

He’s beaten two Sekiwake and a Komusubi, which is impressive, but he’s never faced, let alone beaten, a Yokozuna, and his one bout with an Ozeki was a loss. 

I overlooked Daieisho in my joi list above though. He’s definitely one for the Y/O to be wary of.

Yeah, you are right. We often think that the upper sanyaku hold all the cards, but I think the joi will hold the the key to the yusho. 

Haha, after all this accomplishment, Daieisho still slips past everyone's radar. I don't really quit know why he doesn't give a strong impression. 

[Amamaniac 2,078]

6 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

the joi of the next basho (i.e. the senior sanyaku's week 1 opponents) are all known giant killers: Daieisho, Kotoshoho, Hokutofuji, Takarafuji, and possibly Tamawashi, Tochinoshin and Endo.

I’m not sure I’d put Kotoshoho in the category of known giant killers just yet. :)

He’s beaten two Sekiwake and a Komusubi, which is impressive, but he’s never faced, let alone beaten, a Yokozuna, and his one bout with an Ozeki was a loss. 

I overlooked Daieisho in my joi list above though. He’s definitely one for the Y/O to be wary of.

While Tobizaru is still a new commodity, if you are going to list giant killers, and you put Kotoshoho on the list, then I would be inclined to add the flying monkey.  Even though he will walk away from his second tournament in the Top Division with an MK, if you look at the scalps he took along the way, it is actually quite impressive and what might qualify him for "giant killer" consideration: Takakeisho on day 9, Takanosho on day 11, and Takayasu on day 13.

While Tubbyzaru didn't get much attention on this thread, I have to say that I have been pleasantly impressed by his performance.  He's definitely got a strong sumo physique and his energy and spirit are refreshing.  What surprises me is how well he seems to have transitioned from Juryo to Makuuchi.  He looks like he belongs in the Top Division, and he is handling guys with much more Top Division experience as though he were their equal. (... just not all the guys) (...yet).

Edited November 21, 2020 by Amamaniac

[hakutorizakura 582]

Nice day with a couple rare kimarite! So it's come down to the final showdown tomorrow. Mitakeumi did not disappoint 

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Quick note - I wrote the list, realised Kotoshoho wasn't a known giant killer, then edited the entry to say almost all were known giant killers. But I take the point, and the most dangerous are, as rightly identified elsewhere, Daieisho and Hokutofuji. Mitakeumi... let's just call him the Schrodinger's Sanyaku at the moment.

Edited November 21, 2020 by Seiyashi

[Amamaniac 2,078]

Meanwhile down in Juryo...

Yeah, there is still stuff to see down in the second division.  Midorifuji took the sole lead today after defeating Takagenji.  It is really impressive to see how he uses positioning to compensate for his slight size in comparison with bigger opponents.

Tomorrow he'll go up against 9-5 Kyokushuho.  It'll be like a pre-ja-vu of the Takakeisho v. Terunofuji bout up in Makuuchi, except that if Midorifuji loses, there is the potential for a 5-way tie.  In short, Midorifuji has more incentive to win his scheduled bout!  Who in their right mind would feel comfortable fighting a 5-man playoff?

But it will also be interesting to see who will end up dropping down out of Juryo.  Everyone knows that 0-14 Fujiazuma's Juryo days are over.  Abi is dropping to Makuuchi as per his punishment.  Nishikigi is definitely out.  Takagenji is in danger, especially if he ends with a 6-9 record.  My concern is whether potentially 4-11 Ikioi (J8w) will be packing up his shikome.  But perhaps I worry too much...

Aside from Naya, there don't look to be many Makuuchi boys poised to break out of sumo hell and into sumo heaven, so Takagenji and Ikioi will probably catch a break.

Edited November 21, 2020 by Amamaniac

[Hakuryuho 334]

2 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Abi is dropping to Makuuchi as per his punishment. 

Strange punishments they got over there in Japan 

[Jyuunomori 226]

If Takakeisho wins tomorrow 14-1...YDC wouldn't promote him, would they?

[Akinomaki 39,548]

2 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Yeah, everything is falling into place at the same time for Hatsu to be an incredible basho: two Yokozuna fighting for their careers, Asanoyama and Shodai both kadoban, Takakeisho on a rope run and a very competitive sanyaku/joi with the likes of Terunofuji, Takayasu, Hokutofuji, Takanosho and Mitakeumi all in the mix, two of whom are yusho winners, two are ex-Ozeki and one has seven kinboshi. With so much at stake and no real room for kyujo, it stands to be a classic.

Takakeisho will be on rope run also if he loses in a play-off, but if Terunofuji wins this, we have an additional suspense next basho: that another yusho will have him promoted back to ozeki on the spot for sure. With a ketteisen loss he has a good chance for that as well, but then it is easier to demand one more basho.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

7 minutes ago, Jyuunomori said:

If Takakeisho wins tomorrow 14-1...YDC wouldn't promote him, would they?

Can’t see it. The JY last time was nothing out of the ordinary: 12-3 with no Yokozuna and it included a fusen, which doesn’t matter much for lesser promotions but probably counts against when considering someone for the biggest promotion of all. They also set a high bar for his Ozeki promotion so I don’t see them giving him a shortcut to the rope.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

2 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Takakeisho will be on rope run also if he loses in a play-off

Indeed. He’s guaranteed at least a “yusho equivalent”.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

4 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Takakeisho will be on rope run also if he loses in a play-off, but if Terunofuji wins this, we have an additional suspense next basho: that another yusho will have him promoted back to ozeki on the spot for sure. With a ketteisen loss he has a good chance for that as well, but then it is easier to demand one more basho.

With a 12-2, he's still in good shape to start an ozeki run. Not sure if next basho's yusho will guarantee him an ozeki promotion with a 8-4-3 kyujo last basho and with Miyabiyama's precedent; I think he needs three straight doubledigits.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

With a 12-2, he's still in good shape to start an ozeki run. Not sure if next basho's yusho will guarantee him an ozeki promotion with a 8-4-3 kyujo last basho and with Miyabiyama's precedent; I think he needs three straight doubledigits.

I see your reasoning, but Miyabiyama was pretty hopeless in comparison. The Kyokai knows it was injury and not lack of ability that cost Terunofuji his rank first time around. He’s got two yusho under his belt and when reasonably healthy he also managed some good numbers at Ozeki too, including back-to-back near-promotion worthy basho around the time Kisenosato got the nod and before he started that spell of kyujo that led to his dramatic fall down the banzuke. I think they’ll show him some leniency.