Kintamayama

Not the Kyushu basho 2020 GTB invite - and Results!!

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7 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

my first draft still looked totally different (Tobizaru and Kotoshoho last instead of first) and was arguably equally justifiable. 

I ended up with the same solution as you because I felt Tamawashi ahead of Takarafuji was just too awful when there was another reasonable option; it felt to me much more reasonable than how they ended up from the initial draft.  I see Reonito went full bore the opposite way putting even Tochinoshin ahead of Takarafuji.  It's going to be that area and the exact placement of the Juryo promotions that will likely matter assuming all three of us are right where we agree.  Of course, there'll be heavy diversion from what makes sense just because they're required to not have anyone be able to guess correctly.

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40 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I see Reonito went full bore the opposite way putting even Tochinoshin ahead of Takarafuji.

Seeing the solution you guys went with, that's the one I'm questioning the most. Maybe they'll depart from what they did last time and just leave Takarafuji in place.

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43 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

It's going to be that area and the exact placement of the Juryo promotions that will likely matter assuming all three of us are right where we agree.

We agree on the Juryo placements except for the order of Akua and Shimanoumi FWIW.

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14 minutes ago, Reonito said:

We agree on the Juryo placements except for the order of Akua and Shimanoumi FWIW. 

Which is still a 4 point swing against whoever's wrong.

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58. Generally good. Didn't miss anybody by more than a half-rank. Feeling disappointed anyway cause I missed a lot of those 4 point swings. Shimanoumi/Akua was the main thing I was debating still at the deadline. Nice to see a banzuke that makes sense though.

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1 minute ago, Kaito said:

58. Generally good. Didn't miss anybody by more than a half-rank. Feeling disappointed anyway cause I missed a lot of those 4 point swings. Shimanoumi/Akua was the main thing I was debating still at the deadline. Nice to see a banzuke that makes sense though.

Ditto for me, 58. Thought I had a great entry but a lot of 4 point reversals and Akua at bottom.

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Fairly sure I've got 59. I didn't think they'd put Kotoshoho up that high, and that messed up my middle a little but that's like 19 points better than my previous guess, so pretty happy with that. Looking forward to seeing the full results!

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44 for me. There are four lines where I had the correct ranks but not the east vs west slots correct.

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84 possible to start.

Daieisho and Onosho switched -2 (82 still possible)

Hokutofuji below Kagayaki and Okinoumi -5 (77)

Myogiryu and Tobizaru switched -4 (73)

Terutsuyoshi and Aoiyama switched -2 (71)

Meisei and Ryuden switched -2 (69)

Chiyotairyu and Kotonowaka switched -4 (65)

Finish with 65.

I'm not sure I've seen so much hate on 6-9s in the joi before.  Will anyone have Hokutofuji and Myogiryu right?  I was really scared after those two placements, but it settled down pretty to something reasonable after that.

Edited by Gurowake

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Hokutofuji above Kagayaki would have been a surprise, but below Okinoumi?! Tochinoshin also part of the 6-9 hate brigade, and the 5-10s (Tamawashi, Terutsuyoshi) didn't fare any better.

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24 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Tochinoshin also part of the 6-9 hate brigade

Well he's right where I expected him, though that suggests that they looked at the distance they had to drop him and said Hokutofuji and Myogiryu needed to be brought down a notch as well to be more consistent with how far 6-9s are being dropped from the joi this basho.  That's something that's very hard to predict when it happens, and not something I generally think about all that much since you're much more likely to be wrong about it than guess exactly where it happens.  For example, following it all the way to its logical conclusion one might have said that Kotoshoho needed to be above Myogiryu.

Edited by Gurowake
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The results are in- the yusho was won by Pandaazuma- third time- congratulations and jubilations! Top ranked is Gurowake, followed by Reonito and Okisuruga.  130 players, 13 new players. 

Milestones:

Leonishiki -120 bashos!!

Kaiomitsuki- 100 bashos!!

Taxinohana- 90 bashos

Itachiyama- 80 bashos

Kuroimori- 60 bashos

Muhomatsu- 40 bashos

Reonito - 20 bashos

Tatsuomi- 20 bashos

Atenzan- 20 bashos

Special thanks as usual to Andoreasu and Doitsuyama, without whom you would not be reading this.

To see how you did, go here..

Thank you all for playing and now - on with the ba-show!!

 

 

 

Edited by Kintamayama
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10 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Tatsuomi- 20 bashos

Atenzan- 20 bashos

According to the GTB main page, it's 20 for me as well.

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14 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Will anyone have Hokutofuji and Myogiryu right?  

I did, but I then went ahead and messed up  the bottom of the banzuke.

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Okinoumi over Hokutofuji?
3½ rank drop from Ke with 4-11
2  rank drop from M2e with 6-9

Everyone here seem to agree that this is strange. Even the winning guess has Hokutofuji above Okinoumi. 

And no rebate at all for Terutsuyoshi, he was dropped the full 5 ranks with 5-10. I think he is the only one in that part of the banzuke who got the full demotion treatment, if I not missing someone.

Edited by Kashunowaka
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Another look at the drops from sanyaku: you would expect that Daieisho, Okinoumi and Endo with consecutive ranks and and consecutive results (5-4-3) should have been rather evenly spread out but they ended up at M2w, M3w and M7w. I think everyone in this thread has posted better suggestions than that. :-D

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I was hoping that my score was maybe good enough for the Yusho, and it was close, but I didn't expect everyone above me in rank to collapse to the point where I managed to jump so many spots up to the top of the ranking.  It's my second 3rd, to go with 2 4ths, a 5th, 2 6ths, a 10th, and a bunch of 11ths that were all ties for 10th I think.  Top of the rankings without a Yusho - just call me Futahagurowake now.

11 hours ago, Sakura said:

I did, but I then went ahead and messed up  the bottom of the banzuke.

And Pandaazuma's guess, being available already as the winner, has them even lower in rank!  That's the danger of using what I'll call the "pull-down" movement that was apparently the cause of Hokutofuji and Myogiryu being ranked lower than I thought.  I'm also very glad to see he made many of the same east-west switches (Like Aoiyama-Terutsuyoshi) from the actual banzuke that I did.  Given that he as the winner of this GTB contest and I as the current top ranked player, that is, the two players with greatest concordance with the Kyokai otherwise, had these the same way shows that it really was the Kyokai that was wrong.

Edited by Gurowake
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59 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Given that he as the winner of this GTB contest and I as the current top ranked player, that is, the two players with greatest concordance with the Kyokai otherwise, had these the same way shows that it really was the Kyokai that was wrong.

I spent several years proving that the Kyokai was wrong.  It doesn't do any good.

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17 hours ago, Reonito said:

According to the GTB main page, it's 20 for me as well.

Indeed.. Deepest apologies, sir.. <bow>

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12 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Given that he as the winner of this GTB contest and I as the current top ranked player, that is, the two players with greatest concordance with the Kyokai otherwise, had these the same way shows that it really was the Kyokai that was wrong.

But if the Kyokai outsourced the banzuke making to you two guys, the banzuke would be far too consistent and all the excitement with GTB would be gone. :-P

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5 hours ago, Kashunowaka said:

But if the Kyokai outsourced the banzuke making to you two guys, the banzuke would be far too consistent and all the excitement with GTB would be gone. :-P

Indeed. After all it's Guess The Banzuke - not Construct a Logical Banzuke. :-)

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On 26/10/2020 at 19:45, Gurowake said:

Given that he as the winner of this GTB contest and I as the current top ranked player, that is, the two players with greatest concordance with the Kyokai otherwise, had these the same way shows that it really was the Kyokai that was wrong.

The GTB selection stats (not yet up for November) give a good idea when the Kyokai "got it wrong," at least in the sense that I don't second-guess my picks for those rikishi. On the Aki 2020 banzuke, Terunofuji, Kagayaki, Onosho, Abi and Ichinojo clearly fell into that category.

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of course the Kyokai is wrong !

i started saying this more than 50 ba-show ago,

basically when playing GtB, everyone finds out how terrible wrong they are !

Endo should be Yokozuna loooooooong time ago ;)

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