Sakura

Promotion/Demotion/Yusho Discussion Aki 2020

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@Asashosakari contacted me and said that he didn't have time for promotion and demotion writeups this time around and wondered if I would do the thread instead. For some reason, in what looks like a bit of a head-ache basho in terms of yusho races and the promotion/demotion lines I said yes....

Day 9 (results,text-only results )

7-2 Ow, Takakeisho, Se Shodai, M1e Terunofuji, M8w Wakatakakage, M9w Onosho, M14e Tobizaru

6-3 Oe Asanoyama, M5e Kiribayama, M6e Takayasu, M12e Kotoshoho

5-4 Sw Mitakeumi, M1w Takanosho, M5w Takarafuji, M6w Kagayaki, M7w Aoiyama, M10w Kotoeko, M11e Chiyotairyu, M13e Meisei, M17e Ichinojo

General intro

The basho started with seven sekitori missing. After undergoing surgery in August, it was no surprise that Hakuho pulled out of the tournament. If it weren't for the postponement of the Olympics I imagine that he would have retired by now. The only questions left are when exactly will he retire and whether or not he'll be granted the Ichidai-Toshiyori status or not. Bear in mind that Miyagino-Oyakata turns 65 on 21st August 2022 so Hakuho would have to retire by that date in 2021 to get the one-year retired requirement out of the way if he wants to be allowed officially to run the heya.

Joining Hakuho in missing the basho was fellow yokozuna Kakuryu, still suffering from the Day 1 injury back in July. It is looking increasingly likely that we are in the the last 12-months of Kakuryu's career as well. Hakuho's deshi Ishiura also missed the start of the basho with injury and Abi was of course suspended. Down in Juryo, Kizakiumi called it quits due to neck problems and Azumaryu and Fujiazuma as well as the rest of Tamanoi-beya pulled out of the tournament due to a COVID-19 outbreak.

Finally, we already saw Kyokutaisei, Yutakayama and Kotoshogiku pull out of the tournament due to injury, but Kotoshogiku came back in an attempt to save his rank, as did Ishiura.

Results from day 9

With no Yokozuna and possibly due to the lack of degeiko the quality at the top seems lower, the joi seems worse and we have a lot of parity throughout Makuuchi. The best looking wrestler so far is last-basho winner Terunofuji, looking to write the sumo history books with an unprecedented second straight yusho as a Maegashira. Even he took a couple of days to warm up though. Takakeisho looks to be in better shape this time around and is a co-leader and Asanoyama started off the basho with three straight losses.

The net result is that Makuuchi looks a lot like Juryo with 19 rikishi within two of the lead. In fact it's looking more like Juryo than Juryo is at the moment. There are six co-leaders at 7-2. This is better than the nine we had after Day 8 thanks to six of them being paired up. On Day 9 Takakeisho beat Kiribayama, Wakatakakage beat Takayasu and Onosho beat Kotoshoho.  For the other 6-2 rikishi, they all won with Shodai needeing two attempts to beat fellow Sekiwake Daieisho. Terunofuji outclassed Hokutofuji and newcomer Tobizaru beat Meisei for the first time.

With all the parity, it will be interesting to see what the schedulers do. I suspect that they won't change much, but attempt to scramble in the last few days. If they do need some Sanyaku opposition for high scoring Maegashira then Mitakeumi might be the beneficiary. He could be moved aside so that they could arrange a matchup for a Maegashira against an Ozeki or Shodai. Of course, the shimpan also have Terunofuji as a nice road-block for any aspiring yusho winners from lower in the division.

Sanyaku

With seven wins already, Shodai is set for one of the Sanyaku slots, but he is aiming for higher things than that. Fellow Ozeki hopeful Mitakeumi is squandering more Ozeki promotion chances. He can still put in double digits, but first he needs to concentrate on that kachi-koshi. Third Sekiwake Daieisho has even more work to do if he is to remain there. Okinoumi has been unable to retain his form from last basho and Endo has been his usual disappointing self. However, both Komusubi could still get a kachi-koshi.

Terunofuji is clearly in pole position for any open Sanyaku slots, but we're not short on potential candidates.

 

0-0-9 Hakuho Y Kakuryu 0-0-9
6-3 Asanoyama O Takakeisho 7-2
7-2 Shodai S Mitakeumi 5-4
3-6 Daieisho S    
3-6 Okinoumi K Endo 3-6
         
7-2 Terunofuji M1 Takanosho 5-4
3-6 Hokutofuji M2 Tamawashi 4-5
3-6 Myogiryu M3 Terutsuyoshi 3-6
    M4 Tochinoshin 4-5
6-3 Kiribayama M5 Takarafuji 5-4
6-3 Takayasu M6 Kagayaki 5-4
    M7 Aoiyama 5-4
    M8 Wakatakakage 7-2
    M9 Onosho 7-2
    M10    
    M11    
6-3 Kotoshoho M12    
    M13    
7-2 Tobizaru M14    

Makuuchi-Juryo

No shortage of potential demotion candidates here. Suspended Abi will definitely be going down. Kyokutaisei looks set to join him, and Ishiura and Shohozan would need somewhat of a miracle. Kotoshogiku doesn't look like he could muster up any  more wins, but with so many demotion possibilities he could end up staying. I guess we'll have to see how this all pans out. After the most recent banzuke I'm not inclined to suggest that any rikishi with a demotable record is safe, so I've included Yutakayama. He should be safe by the numbers, but could be theoretically demotable if M17 goes away (by a Shodai promotion for example).

Also, given the last banzuke with Ichinojo's promotion I may already have removed too many rikishi from contention. I can always add them back in after Day 15 if needs be. As usual in Juryo, not much in the way of credible promotion candidates. Only Kotonowaka and Kotoyuki look like good options at the moment.

 

(~) 2-6-1 Yutakayama M4      
      ...      
(1) 2-7 Tokushoryu M8      
(2) 2-7 Enho M9      
      M10      
      M11 Kotoshogiku 2-4-3 (3)
      M12 Kaisei 4-5 (2)
(1) 5-4 Meisei M13 Ishiura 1-1-7 (5)
      M14 Abi 0-0-9 (x)
(3) 4-5 Shimanoumi M15 Shohozan 1-8 (6)
(5) 2-3-4 Kyokutaisei M16 Hoshoryu 4-5 (4)
(3) 5-4 Ichinojo M17      
             
(6) 2-7 Ikioi J1 Nishikigi 4-5 (4)
(3) 6-3 Kotoyuki J2 Kotonowaka 7-2 (2)
(5) 4-5 Wakamotoharu J3 Chiyomaru 4-5 (5)
(5) 5-4 Chiyoshoma J4 Daiamami 3-6 (~)
(~) 3-6 Daishomaru J5 Kyokushuho 4-5 (6)
(~) 4-5 Chiyonoo J6 Akua 6-3 (5)
(5) 6-3 Churanoumi J7      
      J8      
      J9      
(6) 7-2 Akiseyama J10      
      J11 Chiyonokuni 8-1 (5)


                        

Juryo-Makushita

The Juryo- Makushita exchange this time has been made complicated by the Tamanoi-beya kyujo rikishi. The Kyokai has said that their enforced kyujo will have to be discussed, but who knows if they'll get any leeway or not. We'll find out the answer to that hopefully when the Juryo promotions are announced. Azumaryu and Fujiazuma if kyujo normally would be shoo-ins for demotion, but I've marked them as ????, because who knows this time around. The first definite slot was opened up by Kizakiumi's retirement and shin-Juryo Oki has provided the second slot by failing to win so far. Kitaharima is also in a bit of trouble. 

No one in the Ms6-Ms15 extended promotion zone is undefeated, so any promotees will come from the Makushita-joi. Of those 10 rikishi we can rule out already make-koshi Asabenkei and covid-sidelined upcoming talent Shiraishi.

      J7 Azumaryu 0-0-9 (????)
(2) 3-6 Mitoryu J8 Tsurugisho 4-5 (1)
      J9      
      J10      
(2) 4-5 Hakuyozan J11      
intai   Kizakiumi J12 Daishoho 4-5 (3)
(x) 0-9 Oki J13 Nishikifuji 6-3 (1)
(????) 0-0-9 Fujiazuma J14 Kitaharima 3-6 (5)
             
  2-3 Takagenji Ms1 Jokoryu 2-3  
  3-2 Chiyonoumi Ms2 Shiraishi 0-0-4 (x)
  2-3 Kaisho Ms3 Sakigake 3-2  
(x) 1-4 Asabenkei Ms4 Naya 3-2  
  3-2 Kotodaigo Ms5 Ura 5-0  


Explanation of symbols used:

numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted)
o = favourable outcome achieved
x = favourable outcome definitely missed
~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck

 

Edited by Sakura
links & Tobizaru
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Juryo yusho race through Day 9:

8-1 J11w Chiyonokuni 

7-2 J2w Kotonowaka, J10e Akiseyama

6-3 J2e Kotoyuki, J6w Akua, J7e Churanoumi, J10w Midorifuji, J13w Nishikifuji

With Makuuchi looking like Juryo, it makes sense that the Juryo  race should look more like Makuuchi. We have just one solitary leader in Juryo in the form of already kachi-koshi Chiyonokuni who after taking a couple of years to return to the paid ranks after his injury seems determined to stay. Having Kotonowaka as one of his nearest challengers is not too much of a surprise but having Akiseyama as one of them certainly is.

It's probably too early to think about the match-ups for all the leaders, though Day 10 highlights include Kotoyuki vs Churanoumi and Kotonowaka vs Akua. 

Lower division yusho races:

5-0 Ms5w Ura (Kise)
5-0 Ms28w Tochiseriyu (Kasugano)
5-0 Ms42e Terasawa (Takasago)

5-0 Sd7w Tamakongo (Katanonami)
5-0 Sd20e Hokutenkai (Onoe)
5-0 Sd30w Otsuji (Takadagawa)
5-0 Sd63w Nishinoryu (Sakaigawa)
5-0 Sd69e Nihonyanagi (Onomatsu)
5-0 Sd90e Miryzan (Otake)

5-0 Jd4w Nabatame (Futagoyama)
5-0 Jd14w Hokuseiho (Miyagino)
5-0 Jd47e Shishi (Irumagawa)
5-0 Jd64e Mimurodake (Isegahama)
5-0 Jd79e Ofukasawa (Naruto)
5-0 Jd82e Hagiwara (Naruto)

5-0 Jk5w Hisanotora (Dewanoumi)
5-0 Jk28w Akiyoshi (Onomatsu)

5-0 Jk30e Yutakanami (Tatsunami)

In Makushita we only have three undefeated rikishi, which raises the possibility of a big 6-1 yusho playoff. Ura maybe the most well known, but it's not a sure thing with both Tochiseryu and Terasawa capable of the upset. Recovering Nihonyanagi might be the most interesting yusho hopeful in Sandanme. The Jonidan division looks like the most interesting of the lower divisions with Hakuho - disciple Hokuseiho the biggest name and most likely yusho winner, but others in that group such as Nabatame, Shishi and Hagiwara provide more interest than usual.

Finally, I have nothing positive to say about Jonokuchi at all...

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24 minutes ago, Sakura said:

Finally, I have nothing positive to say about Jonokuchi at all...

Aw, come on, what about Iwata, who fought his way up to Jk2 without ever going katchikoshi in 6 basho, and at 3-2 he may yet rocket into the Elysian fields of lower Jonidan.

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2 hours ago, Sakura said:

Kotoshogiku doesn't look like he could muster up any  more wins, but with so many demotion possibilities he could end up staying.

I don't see any way he'd get to stay from M11 with only 2 (or even 3) wins; especially given what they just did with Ikioi. Four seems like a minimum, and still doesn't guarantee safety...

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5 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I don't see any way he'd get to stay from M11 with only 2 (or even 3) wins; especially given what they just did with Ikioi. Four seems like a minimum, and still doesn't guarantee safety...

Not normally he wouldn't (see e.g. Daiamami in Natsu 2018), but with 4 others almost guaranteed to drop to Juryo below him, only 2 plausible Juryo promotees, and the next plausible candidates being 6-3s at J6 and J7, Akiseyama and/or Chiyonokuni would have to wrestle the sumo of their lives to force the exchange. A similar scenario unfolded in Aki 2014; Chiyomaru at M11 had 4-11 but was saved by 5 worse records below him and only 5 plausible juryo promotees (including an extremely dubious promotion of a 8-7 J4 Kotoyuki).

Considering the extremely ambivalent records of much of upper Juryo, I'd say it's way too early to tell if Kotoshogiku gets the drop or no. His demotion or otherwise is far more dependent on banzuke luck than the other four, who are pretty much guaranteed to go down. Hell, either Hoshoryu or Ichinojo could yet fluff the rest of their tournament and give Kotoshogiku even more of a cushion - or, for that matter, Ishiura and Shohozan.

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13 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Well, the point is more that Kotoshogiku's survival is less in his own hands (if even his legs can help him now) than it is upon the performances of those below him. Even the recent 2-3 win demotions to Juryo have had relatively clear cut and few choices for promotion and demotion. At nakabi this tournament, it's not clear at all; I daresay we need three more days for the picture to clear up, so Sakura's approach of just not saying much about him is probably for the best.

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2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I guess all I'm saying is that if someone's Makuuchi record is bad enough, they'll find a way to demote them, even if they have to, say, promote a J8 with a 10-5: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201403#J

This is a bit circular, because "what is 'bad enough'?" is pretty much the core of such a debate, even if it's not spelled out that way. And that's simply impossible to answer conclusively just based on precedents. Of course there's no doubt that usually, the various puzzle pieces will align such that 2 wins at M11 are a super-clear demotion. But there have been cases such as Tamanoshima dropping only 7 ranks on a 2-9-4 (and that was just 12 spots, since the sanyaku shrunk by 2), so it's certainly conceivable that Kotoshogiku could find himself hanging on at M17.

And leaving the numbers aside - there are few rikishi better positioned to get the nod over an equally undeserving juryo rikishi in such a scenario than a veteran ex-ozeki would be, IMHO.

I do have to take issue with one argument from the "other" side as well:

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Not normally he wouldn't (see e.g. Daiamami in Natsu 2018), but with 4 others almost guaranteed to drop to Juryo below him (...)

Ishiura, Abi, Shohozan and Kyokutaisei, I assume? That they're ranked below Kotoshogiku is only meaningful if they actually end up with worse rank/record combinations than the M11w 2-10-3 that's being mooted as the extreme case for Giku here, and at least for Ishiura and arguably also for Shohozan that's far from assured at this point. Even for 3-9-3 I'd say Ishiura would be a decent bet to beat that.
 

4 hours ago, Sakura said:

The basho started with seven sekitori missing. After undergoing surgery in August, it was no surprise that Hakuho pulled out of the tournament. If it weren't for the postponement of the Olympics I imagine that he would have retired by now. The only questions left are when exactly will he retire and whether or not he'll be granted the Ichidai-Toshiyori status or not. Bear in mind that Miyagino-Oyakata turns 65 on 21st August 2022 so Hakuho would have to retire by that date in 2021 to get the one-year retired requirement out of the way if he wants to be allowed officially to run the heya.

That one-year rule only applies to establishing a stable from scratch, mere takeovers can be done instantaneously.

(You already know it, but I should be expressing my gratitude here, too: Many thanks for keeping this thing alive both last basho and this time.)

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Thanks to everyone on their thoughts re: Kotoshogiku. There are too many moving parts at the bottom of the Makuuchi to know too much right now. 

On my thoughts re: Yutakayama and M17. I posited that M17 could go away if Shodai got promoted, but we'd have to still have 3 sekiwake afterward for the M17 to disappear. Other situations might be the three sekiwake and two komusubi end up with kachi-koshi and Terunofuji forces a promotion. So it's possible, if unlikely, that the M17 would go away.

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15 minutes ago, Yubinhaad said:

Press report that Kiribayama is kyujo from Day 10 due to a left shoulder injury, sustained in his bout against Takakeisho yesterday.

Asanoyama gets his second fusensho of the basho.

This has to mean no rope run for Asanoyama, right? Even if he goes on to win a 12-3 yusho, two fusensho doesn't leave a good taste in the mouth. 

That said, it's a yusho? So interesting.

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1 hour ago, Houmanumi said:

This has to mean no rope run for Asanoyama, right?

The ugly start to the basho probably meant that already, alas.

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2 hours ago, Houmanumi said:

This has to mean no rope run for Asanoyama, right?

Hmmm.. He is now in a three way tie for seventh place in the yusho race.  He has yet to beat anyone with a positive record for the basho.  Two of his wins were gimmes.  It looks like a safe bet that he will  not meet rope criteria in Aki.

Edited by Asojima

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1 hour ago, Asojima said:

Two of his wins were gimmes.

And to point out once more: Asanoyama is in no way to blame for two of his opponents not showing up for matches he was expected to win anyway. A win is a win is a win.

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19 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

And to point out once more: Asanoyama is in no way to blame for two of his opponents not showing up for matches he was expected to win anyway. A win is a win is a win.

He is coming off a relatively weak (12-3) jun-yusho.  To get the rope he would need a strong yusho or jun-yusho.  He has been outside the race from the start.  The gimmes are not strong wins, and 2 of his 3 losses were against weak opponents.  There has been nothing there (yet) to impress the YDC or the Kyokai.

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If we take Isegahama shimpan-cho's statement last basho that Asanoyama is not on a rope run, then even if Asanoyama yushos this tournament (fusen notwithstanding), he'll only have started a rope run and can seal it with a commanding performance in November. I'm, however, inclined to agree with Asojima that this tournament is not going to be considered either, because it's even weaker than his previous tournament, and if the previous one wasn't considered as even starting a rope run, neither should this.

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I think Terunofiji will receive an additional sekiwake slot if he earns more than 10.
Because if he gets 9-6 or 8-7 next basho, he still needs to be lifted in sekiwake, but opening an extra slot for 9/8 wins = setting a bad precedent.

Better solve the problem in advance. o/

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58 minutes ago, Qwerry said:

I think Terunofiji will receive an additional sekiwake slot if he earns more than 10.
Because if he gets 9-6 or 8-7 next basho, he still needs to be lifted in sekiwake, but opening an extra slot for 9/8 wins = setting a bad precedent.

Better solve the problem in advance. o/

I don't think the banzuke committee deals that far ahead. What is clear though that 11-12 wins from M1 does on occasion cause an S2 slot to open - as happened to Takatoriki twice. But at the same time, it can also not happen with a sekiwake logjam - see Goeido in Natsu/Nagoya 2011, where Kakuryu's superior record at komusubi caused Kakuryu to be promoted to a third sekiwake slot, but not Goeido with an 11-4 at M1e. So if the sekiwake still salvage their records and in the absence of an ozeki promotion for Shodai, Terunofuji might well be stuck at komusubi. And, getting stuck at komusubi with 9-6 or 8-7 is not unusual - see Abi in Aki 2019, where Takakeisho and Tochinoshin exchanging sekiwake slots meant that Abi was stuck at K1e despite a 9-6.

So Terunofuji doesn't "need" to be lifted to sekiwake. The requirement for promotion to ozeki is usually 3 basho in junior sanyaku, not at sekiwake only, although the last promotion to ozeki without being ranked at sekiwake was pre-modern. In any case, the requirements for promotion to ozeki will usually cause a komusubi to force a sekiwake slot (since the komusubi will average 11 wins a tournament) anyway even if one had not been available at some point in time - bar a highly unusual 10-5, 10-5, 14-1 or something along those lines. 

However, if Mitakeumi, Daieisho, and both komusubi undergo a collective meltdown in this week (both komusubi definitely on course for that now), Terunofuji can still be promoted to a regular sekiwake slot even with less than 10 wins - Okinoumi did it with 9 in 2016. Again, as with Kotoshogiku, too many variables to make a call one way or the other right now. And with a third loss today, the question may well become moot before senshuraku. 

Edited by Seiyashi

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9 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

What is clear though that 11-12 wins from M1 does...

Yeah. Seems like old reсords disagree with my theory. :(

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They could go the other way, and accept that competition at the top isn't what it was a little while ago and accept this as the start of a tsuna run if he pulls out the yusho. While this tournament is pretty weak overall, if he wins it would still mean he's the best of who showed up. With the sitting yokozuna both being game-time decisions each basho, a bunch of practically elderly wrestlers in makuuchi, and the virus knocking out whole stables at random, it's not like the level of competition is going to improve suddenly in November.

I don't know how likely that would be, just possible.

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8 hours ago, Asojima said:

three way tie for seventh place

Seven wins, second place?

-- Yamanashi, picker of nits

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33 minutes ago, Churaumi said:

They could go the other way, and accept that competition at the top isn't what it was a little while ago and accept this as the start of a tsuna run if he pulls out the yusho. While this tournament is pretty weak overall, if he wins it would still mean he's the best of who showed up. With the sitting yokozuna both being game-time decisions each basho, a bunch of practically elderly wrestlers in makuuchi, and the virus knocking out whole stables at random, it's not like the level of competition is going to improve suddenly in November.

I don't know how likely that would be, just possible.

If - and this is at the moment a humongous if - he pulls out the yusho, he can force the issue by yushoing in November. I would expect there to be grumbling about the quality of this yusho then, but I don't think anyone will want to be a major bitch about Asanoyama getting the rope as a retirement present for Takasago. Same goes if Asanoyama pulls a good 13+ jun-yusho or doten in November.

I can buy there having been equal or worse 2 tournament promotion records in the past (notably Asashio and Onokuni), but the picture drastically changes once you consider the three-tournament record, because both of those men yushoed once, then turned in two junyushos before being promoted. And even amongst other headscratchers to this rule, like Wakanohana (I) and Kashiwado, they won yushos as ozeki and multiple jun-yushos, and maintained reasonable records prior to their promotion. The true headscratcher is probably Kisenosato, who never yushoed before, and whose 12-3J 14-1Y two tournament record was looked at askance by some commentators (source: Herouth (twitter @Sumofollower)), but he served as ozeki long enough with enough junyushos to make it a reasonable bet. And by any account, his shin-yokozuna tournament was a rousing success that only got buggered by injury.

None of these apply to Asanoyama, whose previous yusho was a relatively weak hiramaku 12-3 and whose best score to date is 12 wins, and who has no long record of consistent performance at ozeki level. I can see why Isegahama was pretty categorical about him not starting a tsuna run, and I don't see what has changed in this 1 basho - even with a whole stable being knocked out - that drastically changes that picture as far as the NSK is concerned. Futahaguro is still recent enough that it'd be within the memory of many of the present riji, and I don't think any of them are in a hurry to follow that example.

Er, in any case, not sure whether this discussion should be excised from this thread and merged with Sakura's promotion/demotion thread. It seems to have gone (Iamgoingoff-topic...) from the original discussion of how the fusen affects Asanoyama's chances at the rope.

Edited by Seiyashi

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The NSK has a well-earned reputation for opaque and unpredictable decision-making. I doubt they would call this the start of a tsuna run myself, but it's possible they could go the other way, to build some buzz if nothing else. I second that t this should be moved to the promotion thread. MODS!

Edited by Jakusotsu
Done.
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While all the tsuna run talk here has focused on Asanoyama, it seems like Takakeisho is more likely to start one at this point, as he is actually tied for the lead in the yusho race.

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7 minutes ago, Reonito said:

While all the tsuna run talk here has focused on Asanoyama, it seems like Takakeisho is more likely to start one at this point, as he is actually tied for the lead in the yusho race.

Which, of course, Asanoyama will do his best to spoil on senshuraku for the sake of his own, fading, hopes at one.

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