Sakura

Promotion/Demotion/Yusho Discussion Aki 2020

Recommended Posts

I think if Shodai wins today and gets the 13-2 Y he‘ll be promoted to Ozeki. This will lead to the Sw slot opening up, since Daieisho and both Komusubi will drop out out Sanyaku alltogether.

Takanosho and Terunofuji are pretty much locks for Sanyaku, with Terunofuji getting Ke and Takanosho because of his better record probably even going straight up to Sw.

The Kw slot will be decided today, I think it is between Kiribayama (M5e) and Takayasu (M6e). If the former wins today and gets his 9th win I think it doesn‘t matter what Takayasu does because even if he wins and is 10-5 Kiribayama will get the nod over him. If Kiribayama loses and Takayasu wins, then I‘m sure Takayasu will be promoted to Komusubi. If they both lose it should go to Kiribayama in my opinion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Hakuryuho said:

I think if Shodai wins today and gets the 13-2 Y he‘ll be promoted to Ozeki. This will lead to the Sw slot opening up, since Daieisho and both Komusubi will drop out out Sanyaku alltogether.

Takanosho and Terunofuji are pretty much locks for Sanyaku, with Terunofuji getting Ke and Takanosho because of his better record probably even going straight up to Sw.

The Kw slot will be decided today, I think it is between Kiribayama (M5e) and Takayasu (M6e). If the former wins today and gets his 9th win I think it doesn‘t matter what Takayasu does because even if he wins and is 10-5 Kiribayama will get the nod over him. If Kiribayama loses and Takayasu wins, then I‘m sure Takayasu will be promoted to Komusubi. If they both lose it should go to Kiribayama in my opinion.

A 10-5 over a 9-6 one rank above will still be considered a better record. If both men win today, Takayasu will get the nod.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That has to be that then. Shodai has 56 wins over his last five tournaments AND a yusho, that has to more than make up for 32 over three.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Hakuryuho said:

I think if Shodai wins today and gets the 13-2 Y he‘ll be promoted to Ozeki.

Done. 

4 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

A 10-5 over a 9-6 one rank above will still be considered a better record. If both men win today, Takayasu will get the nod.

I think Takanosho will be Sekiwake, Terunofuji and Kiribayama to be Komusubi. Lucky Takanosho! 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

31 win + fusen=ozeki? 
Noooo... I don't think so. 
We have long pause in may, we don't have yoko's on last tournament. 

Too easy for Shodai. 
I hope he will be just official candidate(with 10 more wins) in november. 

Edited by Qwerry

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Qwerry said:

31 win + fusen=ozeki? 
Noooo... I don't think so. 
We have long pause in may, we don't have yoko's on last tournament. 

Too easy for Shodai. 
I hope he will be just official candidate(with 10 more wins) in november. 

Well, the shimpanbu certainly thinks otherwise. They're recommending his promotion to the board, which is as good as promoted. Yesterday, Takadagawa oyakata was already quoted as saying Shodai's sumo was good this basho and promotion would depend on today's bout; that's confirmed by Nikkan's article after Shodai won his honwari bout and the yusho with powerful sumo.

Besides, beating yokozuna was never a condition of being promoted to ozeki, and Shodai thoroughly whooped both serving ozeki this basho. Both young, healthy, hungry, and in the title-race ozeki. He's shown himself to be their equal repeatedly - he's beaten Asanoyama this tournament, beaten Takakeisho in their last three meetings, exchanged bouts with Terunofuji (who is lower sanyaku standard minimum), and come off the back of two jun-yusho within the past year and secured a 13-2 yusho. Fusen are also no obstacle to promotion - Kotooshu, Asanoyama, and Tochiazuma all had a fusen in the tournament before being promoted.

I'll take that over someone who goes 11-4 thrice and loses to two yokozuna and two ozeki any day.

Also, note that juryo, ozeki, and yokozuna promotions are always announced almost immediately after a tournament instead of when the new banzuke is released, because of the huge change in status that those promotions entail. So there's not much fodder or time for us to discuss these as part of GTB guessing after a basho, since statements by the shimpanbu (or YDC, in the case of yokozuna) will always render these moot.

https://www.nikkansports.com/m/battle/sumo/news/amp/202009270000595.html

Edited by Seiyashi
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Atenzan said:

Well, that was quick. Ozeki promotion reportedly confirmed in a special meeting. 

Er, on doublechecking, it appears that this is just the report that the shimpanbu has recommended to Hakkaku that a extraordinary board meeting be convened on the 30th to discuss his promotion. So the promotion hasn't been set in stone yet, although it is unlikely that the board will decline.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regarding 32 wins and ozeki promotion: out of 26 promotions in the last 30 years, 4 were after 32 wins and 3 of those in the 2010s. Shodai's case with 8-7 / 11-4 / 13-2Y is arguably stronger than 32-winners Kisenosato, Goeido and Asanoyama because of that yusho and going 13-2, which neither of the others did in their ozeki runs. It resembles Chiyotaikai's 9-6 / 10-5 / 13-2Y in 1999 a lot. If you get the chance to promote a sekiwake after a 13-2 yusho, you take it.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Er, on doublechecking, it appears that this is just the report that the shimpanbu has recommended to Hakkaku that a extraordinary board meeting be convened on the 30th to discuss his promotion. So the promotion hasn't been set in stone yet, although it is unlikely that the board will decline.

Yes, this means that the Judging Committee (Shimpan-bu) has decided that he should be promoted, and it's sent to the board of directors (Riji-kai) for approval.  They need a special meeting to do that before the banzuke is made Wednesday. No one has ever been denied, and the closest is that Miyabiyama's approval was not unanimous.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

No one has ever been denied, and the closest is that Miyabiyama's approval was not unanimous.

Could you then say - avoiding the double negative - that Miyabiyama's approval was animous? (Whistling...)

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

Could you then say - avoiding the double negative - that Miyabiyama's approval was animous? (Whistling...)

Insofar as there was animosity, yes...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, bettega said:

Kiribayama the lucky komusubi?

Probably Takayasu. One more win from one rank lower, plus his past record in san'yaku.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 15 (results,text-only results )
 

13-2 Se Shodai

12-3 Ow Takakeisho

Results from day 15

Before the day 15 torikumi was out, I thought that there was a (small) possibility that they wouldn't pair Shodai with Tobizaru since the Maegashira was one win behind. As it turns out it seems that a) Sekiwake don't have the same sort of privilege to avoid a Maegashira competitor and b) Tobizaru was a much more competent opponent than Mitakeumi.

Tobizaru nearly had Shodai at the start and later on in the bout too, but the Sekiwake persevered and eventually threw Tobizaru down in what was quite an entertaining match. That was all Shodai needed to do and he walked away with the yusho, the Shukun and Kanto-shos and a recommendation from the judges that he be promoted to Ozeki. Since this recommendation has never been denied we sould be seeing former next-Ozeki Shodai become actual-Ozeki Shodai in November.

Tobizaru leaves with the Kanto-sho for an impressive debut as well as a priceless expression immortalised by the photographers.

Sanyaku

Takakeisho brought the intensity and beat Asanoyama to have the jun-yusho all to himself and therefore has a shot at Yokozuna promotion after November if he wins. For those that are skeptical look at the following list:

List One

That is a list of all Ozeki that went Jun-Yusho- Yusho - Yokozuna (mentally remove Kakuryu whose promotion was more conventional). So, I wouldn't rule out promotion for Takakeisho if he wins the yusho in November, particularly if it is a strong one. However, every Yokozuna on this list after Wakanohana had a string of Jun-Yusho to fall back on, not just one and generally did it when the yusho were won by Yokozuna and Ozeki.

List Two

The above list is a list of Ozeki who went jun-yusho-yusho but didn't get promoted to Yokozuna for various reasons. Takanohana for example was very young and eventually had to force the promotion with back-to-back yusho and Chiyotaikai had a 7-8 score before that run for example. The one who probably has the most to complain about on that list is Kaio, who had a decent amount of jun-yushos in the prior bashos.

So if Takakeisho wins the yusho in November, List One says we can't rule out a promotion to Yokozuna but List Two says we can't say it'll happen for definite either.

What else: Asanoyama will have to go back to the drawing board and start from scratch again. Mitakeumi looked lacklustre again and finishes with a mere kachi-koshi. As @Reonito says, an Ozeki promotion is possible if he pulls out 33 wins, but that means 14-1 to get to that number in November, probably quite difficult for a man who has just three double-digit winning records in 20 basho as a Sanyaku.

Daieisho showed his better side as he beat Okinoumi.

With a Shodai promotion there will be three slots available for Sanyaku. Mitakeumi should slide over to the East Sekiwake slot. The West side should be taken by Takanosho. Terunofuji should then take the East Komusbi position. The West Komusubi slot should either be Kiribayama or Takayasu. Kiribayama is higher ranked and faced more joi opponents, but Takayasu is only one rank lower with one more win and also faced some joi/sanyaku opponents (thanks to Kiribayama pulling out). I don't know what they will choose to do. Personally, I hope it is Takayasu because then I can finish one of the Banzuke surfing waves :-)

 

  0-0-15 Hakuho Y Kakuryu 0-0-15  
  10-5 Asanoyama O Takakeisho 12-3  
(o) 13-2 Shodai S Mitakeumi 8-7  
(x) 5-10 Daieisho S      
(x) 4-11 Okinoumi K Endo 3-9-3 (x)
             
(o) 8-5-2 Terunofuji M1 Takanosho 10-5 (o)
      M2      
      M3      
      M4      
  9-4-2 Kiribayama M5      
  10-5 Takayasu M6      
      M7      
      M8 Wakatakakage 11-4 (x)
      M9 Onosho 10-4 (x)
      ...      
(x) 11-4 Tobizaru M14      



Makuuchi-Juryo

Hoshoryu and Ichinojo both secured last day kachi-koshis and will be staying a Makuuchi. Shimanoumi lost today and now has a demotable record. However given the lack of good promotion candidates in Juryo and the fact that there are five rikishi ahead of him in the demotion queue I'm going to go ahead and say he'll end up being safe. I've marked him with a ~ to indicate that. Kotoyuki failed to pick up win 9 so we still have just two rikishi with promotable records in Juryo - Chiyonokuni and Kotonowaka. With the demotion picture as it is, Kotoyuki should still go up however.

In the table below I've placed numbers by each rikishi in order of how demotable or promotable they are. 

 

      M11 Kotoshogiku 2-10-3 (x3)
      M12      
      M13 Ishiura 4-4-7 (x4a)
      M14 Abi 0-0-14 (x1)
(~6) 6-9 Shimanoumi M15 Shohozan 5-10 (x4b)
(x2) 2-3-9 Kyokutaisei M16 Hoshoryu 8-7 (o)
(o) 8-7 Ichinojo M17      
             
      J1      
(~3) 8-7 Kotoyuki J2 Kotonowaka 9-6 (o2)
      J3      
(~4) 9-6 Chiyoshoma J4      
      J5      
(~6) 9-6 Chiyonoo J6 Akua 10-5 (~5)
      J7      
      J8      
      J9      
(x) 11-4 Akiseyama J10      
      J11 Chiyonokuni 14-1 (o1)

Chiyonokuni and Kotonowaka should replace Abi and Kyokutaisei. We may well have seen the last of Kotoshogiku especially as he's the third most demotable. I expect a retirement, but he ought to be replaced by stablemate Kotoyuki. Beyond that, it's how you feel about overpromotions vs under demotions. I feel like they'd choose Shimanoumi over Chiyonoo, but I'd need to think more about Ishiura/Shohozan vs Chiyoshoma/Akua

Juryo - Makushita

Ura beat Daishoho in the exchange match so the latter is now demotable. I expect Ura will take his place. In Ura ought to be ahead of Naya in the queue. I think Naya will take the fourth slot after Takagenji, Jokoryu and Ura, but I'm not a 100% sure, so I added a ? to him. The four slots are opened up by Kizakiumi's intai, Oki, Kitaharima and Daishoho. A Kotoshogiku retirement could open up a slot for Chiyonoumi (or Naya, if the Kokonoe man is ahead). If they do decide to demote Fujiazuma and Azumaryu (sidelined because of the Tamanoi-beya COVID quarantine), then we could end up seeing a promotion for Kotodaigo (and Chiyonoumi/Naya depending on any retirements above) or a reprieve for Daishoho. The fate of Tamanoi-beya is the big if at the moment and we'll have to wait and see for any announcements or the Juryo promotion list to find out.
 

      J7 Azumaryu 0-0-15 (????)
      ...      
intai   Kizakiumi J12 Daishoho 6-9 (x)
(x) 0-15 Oki J13      
(????) 0-0-15 Fujiazuma J14 Kitaharima 5-9 (x)
             
(o) 4-3 Takagenji Ms1 Jokoryu 4-3 (o)
  4-3 Chiyonoumi Ms2      
      Ms3      
      Ms4 Naya 5-2 (o?)
  4-3 Kotodaigo Ms5 Ura 6-1 (o)

Explanation of symbols used:
~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck
x = favourable outcome definitely missedo = favourable outcome achieved
numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted)
 

Edited by Sakura
Missing table
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Sakura said:

So if Takakeisho wins the yusho in November, List One says we can't rule out a promotion to Yokozuna but List Two says we can't say it'll happen for definite either.

Excellent analysis. Presumably his tenure in seven tournaments at the rank so far, including two kadobans and one demotion to sekiwake, plus the most recent 7-8 and 8-4-3 results, would argue against promotion, but let's see him pull off a strong yusho first.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sakura I want to say thank you so much for filling in for Asashosakari. One thing I love about this forum community is that all of us in some way help out each other. Keep up the great work!!!

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Excellent analysis. Presumably his tenure in seven tournaments at the rank so far, including two kadobans and one demotion to sekiwake, plus the most recent 7-8 and 8-4-3 results, would argue against promotion, but let's see him pull off a strong yusho first.

He doesn't have the strong Ozeki history at the moment like Kisenosato for sure. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

Sakura I want to say thank you so much for filling in for Asashosakari. One thing I love about this forum community is that all of us in some way help out each other. Keep up the great work!!!

Thank you. Your top 10 records are great.

It's been a tough stretch. Much busier than I hoped, and harder to do than in July. It was fun though.

Final note - No playoffs in any division. Any one know when that last happened?

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Excellent analysis. Presumably his tenure in seven tournaments at the rank so far, including two kadobans and one demotion to sekiwake, plus the most recent 7-8 and 8-4-3 results, would argue against promotion, but let's see him pull off a strong yusho first.

Agreed. His record is nowhere near good enough to justify a promotion with one yusho backed up by a 12-3 jun-yusho. 12-3 is solid but it isn’t strong enough to do all the heavy lifting on its own. If he had a history of JYs, like Kisenosato had, or if the JY was a yusho equivalent, like Kakuryu’s 14-1D, then it might be a different story.

Edited by Eikokurai
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Agreed. His record is nowhere near good enough to justify a promotion with one yusho backed up by a 12-3 jun-yusho. 12-3 is solid but it isn’t strong enough to do all the heavy lifting on its own. If he had a history of JYs, like Kisenosato had, or if the JY was a yusho equivalent, like Kakuryu’s 14-1D, then it might be a different story.

What about if, and it's a big if indeed. IF he pulls off a zensho-yusho?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, sahaven111 said:

What about if, and it's a big if indeed. IF he pulls off a zensho-yusho?

My gut feeling is that they’d still ask for more. I just feel that one 12-3 – which isn’t the strongest jun-yusho as jun-yusho go – isn’t quite enough to back up one yusho, even a zensho. He’s had only seven basho at the rank with only four KKs and one demotion. It’s not a great foundation. (I guess if we’re being generous his 12-3 Ozekiwake jun-yusho could be counted as a second.)

But then again, with two Yokozuna on the verge of retirement there is always the outside chance they’ll seize the opportunity to promote a candidate to the top rank when they can and zensho might be enough of an excuse for them.

Edited by Eikokurai
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've always really liked Shodai, so am thrilled to see him get a yusho, and glad he gets the great achievement of reaching Ozeki status.

I do worry if it's one basho too early. From 2017-2019, he had 6 kachikoshi vs 12 makekoshi. His sumo has clearly changed and he has been a different rikishi, strengthening his brand here in 2020. That being said, the long tenure of inconsistency does give me some pause as to how successful his Ozeki reign will be, especially if the Yokozuna return for one more run in 2021. It might have been a good mental test to give him a goal of 10 wins in November with the Yokozuna potentially in contention to see how his resolve is with a clear goal on the line to make the rank. Regardless, ganbatte Shodai and may you have a long and successful run!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now