Sakura

Promotion/Demotion/Yusho Discussion Aki 2020

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8 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

An abundance of demotions from Juryo can only be expected if they do the normal thing for the people who were not allowed to compete.  They really should treat them as kosho; it's absolutely unforgivable in my mind to demote then when they are willing and able to fight, but aren't allowed to for a completely outside reason.  The only ones that seems certain are Oki and Kitaharima, and even the latter's not certain yet.  After that there's Daishoho who needs only 2 wins, and after that everyone's safe.  So if they do the "right" thing, that's at most 3 demotions.  We probably won't find out until next Wednesday.

Er yeah I uh forgot Kizakiumi actually retired.  He should be shown as retired on the DB, but it's just not entered yet.  So one more than I thought.

Edited by Gurowake
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8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

He's still Ms1w with a kachi-koshi, and with an abundance of demotion candidates at the bottom of Juryo in addition to Kizakiumi's slot, he's guaranteed a promotion (perhaps alongside Takagenji), quality of opposition or not. I don't even think the banzuke committee bothers looking at the quality of opposition too much when considering non-ozeki/yokozuna promotions, otherwise they'd have way more work than is necessary.

Given that there is a second spot for sure open now that I'm fully informed of things, I would agree that Jokoryu looks like a lock with only Chiyonoumi possibly ahead of him in queue, though you might see a 6-1 Ura ahead of him; that kind of thing I'm sure someone can do some research on, but it won't be me.

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10 hours ago, shumitto said:

Kudos to Jokoryu for getting his promotion. Even the commentators sounded somewhat enthused.  It was  a rough start (0-3), but when there are so many demotion candidates in Juryo you can't miss your kachikoshi. What doesn't look good is the fact that all his wins came against struggling opposition (three MK in makushita and Kitaharima at 5-7).

I mean, that's unavoidable that all your (makushita) wins are against makekoshi rikishi when you start 0-3 and finish 4-3.

Edited by Asashosakari
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14 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Given that there is a second spot for sure open now that I'm fully informed of things, I would agree that Jokoryu looks like a lock with only Chiyonoumi possibly ahead of him in queue, though you might see a 6-1 Ura ahead of him; that kind of thing I'm sure someone can do some research on, but it won't be me.

When 4-3 Daiseido went from Ms1w to Ms1e with two promotion slots available, those promoted ahead of him were a 5-2 Ms1e and a 7-0 Ms5e. The other two similar instances in the last decade involved promotion of a 4-3 Ms1e and a 6-1 Ms3e on one occasion, and a 5-2 Ms1e and a 6-1 Ms2w on the other. Here's the full list of such non-promotions.

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5 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I mean, that's unavoidable that all your (makushita) wins are against makekoshi rikishi when you start 0-3 and finish 4-3.

Well, one of his wins was against Kitaharima.  That's how he's 4-3 already after Day 12.  But if he wins at 3-3 in Juryo, it's a good bet the opposing rikishi is MK.

Edited by Gurowake

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1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

I mean, that's unavoidable that all your (makushita) wins are against makekoshi rikishi when you start 0-3 and finish 4-3.

I have been playing chess for years now so I am quite familiar with the Swiss system. I just rephrased what I previously said to add the idea that I am not to convinced he is ready to survive lower Juryo. But thanks anyway.

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1 hour ago, shumitto said:

I have been playing chess for years now so I am quite familiar with the Swiss system. I just rephrased what I previously said to add the idea that I am not to convinced he is ready to survive lower Juryo. But thanks anyway.

I didn't doubt your understanding of the system, I mentioned it to indicate that I don't think the "they're all makekoshi" factoid carries any significant meaning on its own. It's a 4-3 facing all opponents from a narrow band between J13 and Ms6, and Tsushimanada is the only opponent one might argue doesn't "belong" up there (and he's the lowest-ranked of the 7 anyway). There have been tons of similarly underwhelming 4-3's with different win-loss patterns that nobody tried to crystal-ball for added meaning, mostly because 4-3's are almost always underwhelming when they're done by rikishi who have a lot of miles on their career odometer.

Anyway, at the very least a fairly done strength-of-schedule argument needs to also look at who he lost to, not only who he beat. "He only beat guys who were worse" makes little sense without allowing for the possibility of "he only lost to guys who were better".

Edited by Asashosakari
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28 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Anyway, at the very least a fairly done strength-of-schedule argument needs to also look at who he lost to, not only who he beat. "He only beat guys who were worse" makes little sense without allowing for the possibility of "he only lost to guys who were better".

This is sort of implicit in any ranking system to be honest. It's just that it's easy to overlook this since sumo rankings are 2 months out of date.

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5 hours ago, Sakura said:

Perhaps you would like to spend hours crafting these posts....

Relax, I'm just kidding.  You're doing a great job subbing for the master.

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And with Daieisho and Okinoumi at 4-9, and Endo at effectively 3-10, the entire bottom has just dropped out of junior sanyaku. Terunofuji and Takanosho should be locks for komusubi next tournament, and we're back to our regular programming of an 8-man sanyaku. The snafu might be if Mitakeumi goes on a mega losing streak from here out to go 7-8, then Takanosho will likely make sekiwake as long as he clocks one more win.

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Day 13 (results,text-only results )
 

11-2 Se Shodai, M14e Tobizaru

10-3 Oe Asanoyama, Ow TakakeishoM8w Wakatakakage, M9w Onosho

9-4 -

Results from day 13

He did it again - not Ms. Spears, rather Tobizaru who prevailed against Takanosho. He's like a 16 year old figure skater who hasn't yet suffered the injury of self-doubt to realise that in fact they should be losing. In the highlight bout it was Seiwake Shodai who withstood Takakeisho's thrusts and prevailed. Either Shodai has gotten stronger or Takakeisho's thrusts aren't what they were. Onosho overcame Takarafuji and Asanoyama dominated Mitakeumi. Wakatakakage got the fusensho after Terunofuji pulled out. Terunofuji has his eight wins, has a Sanyaku slot and nothing to play for and won't be continuing. This is a change from Ozeki Terunofuji who would enter in poor shape and continue to get 2-13 records. This isn't great news for anyone hoping for a Terunofuji return to Ozeki. Before any win totals are discussed he's first going to have to show he can last for 15 days in consecutive tournaments.

Finally, Chiyotairyu pulled out and Kiribayama chose to return to try and get a KK record.

Day 14 match-ups

The day 14 match-ups were posted before the day 13 action (as is usual) and wisely the schedulers decided to take Mitakeumi out of the rotation. In comes Tobizaru instead to face Takakeisho. Takakeisho therefore can at least give one of the leaders a loss even if he has to hope someone else beats Shodai. That person might just be Asanoyama who faces Shodai on Day 14. Mitakeumi for his part gets yusho hopeful Wakatakakage. Onosho gets Takanosho.

I suspect they will once again wait until after Day 14 before announcing the torikumi for Day 15. If Tobizaru wins then I believe he'll face Shodai, as long as Shodai wins. If Tobizaru and Asanoyama win then conceivably they could break up the Ozeki matchup since that would give Asanoyama a shot of having the fate of the yusho in his own hands and Takakeisho would be out of the hunt. If Shodai and Tobizaru both lose and we could see any of Tobizaru, Wakatakakage and Onosho face Shodai (and presumably one facing Mitakeumi). Onosho would be the only one of those three Maegashira not to have faced a Sanyaku opponent before Day 15.

Sanyaku

Win number 11 at least guarantees a decent Ozeki run next time out. Personally, I think if he gets a 13-2 Yusho he gets promoted. Mitakeumi lost again and once again his Ozeki aspirations seem to be down the drain. He still needs one to retain the Sekiwake rank. Daieisho's ninth loss drops him from Sanyaku altogether, and so we should be seeing both Terunofuji and Takanosho up in Sanyaku. A third slot could still open if Shodai manages to get promoted. 

 

  0-0-13 Hakuho Y Kakuryu 0-0-13  
  10-3 Asanoyama O Takakeisho 10-3  
  11-2 Shodai S Mitakeumi 7-6  
(x) 4-9 Daieisho S      
(x) 4-9 Okinoumi K Endo 3-9-1 (x)
             
  8-5 Terunofuji M1 Takanosho 8-5  
(x) 5-8 Hokutofuji M2 Tamawashi 5-8 (x)
  6-7 Myogiryu M3      
      M4      
      M5      
  8-5 Takayasu M6      
      M7      
      M8 Wakatakakage 10-3  
      M9 Onosho 10-3  
      ...      
  11-2 Tobizaru M14      
             



Makuuchi-Juryo

Shimanoumi, Hoshoryu and Ichinojo all had the fortune of being faced up with struggling demotion candidates on Day 13 and were all able to move one step closer to safety. Shohozan and Ishiura now have records that ought to see them demoted and Kotoshogiku needs some banzuke luck.

Kotoyuki managed to get win number eight and even though he needs one more for a normal promotion record should be going up. Chiyonokuni won again and just needs one more to have a normal promotion record from deep in the Juryo banzuke. Daiamami and Daishomaru will not be getting a lucky promotion as the Oitekaze duo picked up make-koshi records. I've also removed Midorifuji as I don't think even 11 wins would be enough for banzuke luck.

      M11 Kotoshogiku 2-8-3 (~)
      M12      
      M13 Ishiura 2-4-7 (x)
      M14 Abi 0-0-9 (x)
(1) 6-7 Shimanoumi M15 Shohozan 3-10 (x)
(x) 2-3-5 Kyokutaisei M16 Hoshoryu 6-7 (2)
(1) 7-6 Ichinojo M17      
             
      J1      
(1) 8-5 Kotoyuki J2 Kotonowaka 9-4 (o)
(~) 6-7 Wakamotoharu J3 Chiyomaru 5-7 (~)
(~) 7-6 Chiyoshoma J4 Daiamami 5-8 (x)
(x) 5-8 Daishomaru J5      
(~) 8-5 Chiyonoo J6 Akua 8-5 (~)
(~) 7-6 Churanoumi J7      
      J8      
      J9      
(~) 10-3 Akiseyama J10 Midorifuji 9-4 (x)
      J11 Chiyonokuni 12-1 (1)


Juryo-Makushita

Kitaharima's make-koshi now means that there should be three open slots in Juryo already. Daishoho saved himself for now and just needs one more. HIs victory was over visiting Chiyonoumi who now finds himself behind Takagenji and Jokoryu in the promotion queue. I've marked those two as promotees now as I don't think they'll be leapfrogged by either Naya or Ura. (Takagenji as an Ms1e should be first in line anyway). It should be noted that Takagenji's important fourth win came at the hands of fellow promotion hopeful Sakigake. 

Naya has his final match in Juryo against Daishoho. The fact that he's up in Juryo suggests that should he win, he'll be ahead of Chiyonoumi in the promotion queue. They have placed more emphasis on winning cross-over bouts in recent times. 

      J7 Azumaryu 0-0-13 (????)
      ...      
intai   Kizakiumi J12 Daishoho 6-7 (1)
(x) 0-13 Oki J13      
(????) 0-0-13 Fujiazuma J14 Kitaharima 5-8 (x)
             
(o) 4-3 Takagenji Ms1 Jokoryu 4-3 (o)
  4-3 Chiyonoumi Ms2      
      Ms3 Sakigake 3-4 (x)
      Ms4 Naya 4-2  
  3-3 Kotodaigo Ms5 Ura 5-1  


~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck
x = favourable outcome definitely missedo = favourable outcome achieved
numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted)
Explanation of symbols used:

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Juryo yusho race through Day 13:

12-1 J11w Chiyonokuni 

10-3 J10e Akiseyama,  

Chiyonokuni's defeat of Kotonowaka leaves him two wins ahead with two days to go and no chance for Kotonowaka to pick up the yusho. Akiseyama is the only other rikishi with a mathematical possibility of winning after he defeated Wakamotoharu. Midorifuji fell from contention after a loss to Akua. A single win for Chiyonokuni over the next two days will do it. Alternatively, a single Akiseyama loss will also work. 

Match-ups for the leaders:

12-1 Chiyonokuni vs Wakamotoharu 6-7 J3e

10-3 Akiseyama vs Chiyomaru 6-7 J3w

Sensible scheduling there. They've paired them up with a couple of rikishi looking to avoid a losing record. Akiseyama's opponent also happens to be one of Chiyonokuni's stablemates, former Maegashira Chiyomaru.

Lower division yusho races:

Thanks to @mt fuji I was able to watch the lower division highlights today. Hisanotora picks up his third Jonokuchi yusho, his last coming in 2011. It's a record he now shares with Ikeru. In Jonidan Ofukasawa did lose to one-loss Shishi, meaning that there would be no playoff in Jonidan or in fact in any lower division. A very rare occurrence indeed. The Jonidan yusho was claimed by Hakuho deshi Hokuseiho of whom I believe John Gunning has high hopes. Ex-Takanoiwa's nephew Hokutenkai won the Sandanme division in a spirited matchup against prospect Nihonyanagi. Finally, Makushita was claimed by Teraswa, who apparently doesn't need a rabbit-charm at all.

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46 minutes ago, Sakura said:

f Shodai and Tobizaru both lose and we could see any of Tobizaru, Wakatakakage and Onosho face Shodai (and presumably one facing Mitakeumi). Onosho would be the only one of those three Maegashira not to have faced a Sanyaku opponent before Day 15.

Good point, I hadn't thought of that.  Onosho has reached Komosubi, and he doesn't have anything to prove compared to the newbies (well, twobies in the case of Wakaetc.).

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1 hour ago, Sakura said:

He did it again - not Ms. Spears, rather Tobizaru who prevailed against Takanosho. He's like a 16 year old figure skater who hasn't yet suffered the injury of self-doubt to realise that in fact they should be losing

(Whateverabove,itisfunny...)  brilliant (Applauding...)

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4 hours ago, Sakura said:

Mitakeumi lost again and once again his Ozeki aspirations seem to be down the drain.

Not that I see it happening, but should he win out, 11-9-13 is a feasible Ozeki run.

4 hours ago, Sakura said:

I've also removed Midorifuji as I don't think even 11 wins would be enough for banzuke luck.

I have Churanoumi out of contention as well.

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With no dearth of makuuchi rikishi to demote but relatively slim pickings for promotions from juryo as it stands, is it safe to assume that another (honwari) win for Chiyonokuni would see him back into makuuchi? 

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2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Not that I see it happening, but should he win out, 11-9-13 is a feasible Ozeki run.

I have Churanoumi out of contention as well.

If I could work out how to separate the quotes I would....

I wonder if they would demand three consecutive 10+ win basho from Mitakeumi to show some more consistency. In 20 basho in Sanyaku he's managed just 3 double-digit records.  Comparing his stint(s) with Goeido. Mitakeumi has the higher highs (yusho) but much lower lows. Goeido had a number of 8-7 records with a few double digits thrown in, until he finally strung together a 12-8-12 wins count over three basho. Goeido was in Sanyaku for long enough to be a mainstay and that I think must have helped his promotion. It's certainly conceivable that Mitakeumi could benefit from being a mainstay as well. I just don't much faith in him though.

Re: Churanoumi - I did consider removing him, and he does seem a rather unlikely candidate, but I couldn't make up my mind and decided to leave him in for now.

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1 hour ago, Sakura said:
1 hour ago, Sakura said:

I wonder if they would demand three consecutive 10+ win basho from Mitakeumi to show some more consistency. In 20 basho in Sanyaku he's managed just 3 double-digit records.  Comparing his stint(s) with Goeido. Mitakeumi has the higher highs (yusho) but much lower lows. Goeido had a number of 8-7 records with a few double digits thrown in, until he finally strung together a 12-8-12 wins count over three basho. Goeido was in Sanyaku for long enough to be a mainstay and that I think must have helped his promotion. It's certainly conceivable that Mitakeumi could benefit from being a mainstay as well. I just don't much faith in him though.

My only point is that no run of 33 wins over 3 basho, all at Sekiwake, all kachi-koshi, has ever failed to earn promotion, with the exception of Miyabiyama's, who (1) was a former Ozeki and (2) only got 9 wins in the final basho. Quite a few of the runs started with 8 or 9 wins, and one had 8 in the middle basho. Do I want Mitakeumi to pull it off? Yes. Do I have faith? Not so much.

 

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So Ura gets a bout up in Juryo, while Chiyonoumi lost his last bout in Juryo (to the same person), so the way things have been going lately, it looks like Ura controls his destiny here and should get the nod over Chiyonoumi if it comes down to deciding between those two.  We already have Takagenji and Jokoryu heading up, and with 3 spots open for sure, we might think Naya is the one in that 3rd guaranteed spot, again being picked over Chiyonoumi due to winning his 7th match in Juryo (and also against the same guy) while Ura and Daishoho have an exchange match.  If there are those two additional spots from Azumaryu and Fujiazuma, then Ura would already have a spot and be fighting to possibly open a spot for Kotodaigo although a 6-9 J12 probably doesn't get replaced by a 4-3 Ms5.  I don't know the level of coordination between the banzuke makers and torikumi makers, and the fate of Ichinojo last time suggests there isn't any at all.  Additionally, the torikumi makers were forced by their previous day decisions on which 5-1s to pair up to give Ura his last match in Juryo, so one might say that not a lot should be read into the choice of giving Ura a match in Juryo, and the choice of opponent is pretty obvious when forced to do so, so the banzuke committee may end up deciding things much different than what might be read from the torikumi decisions.

 

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Day 14 (results,text-only results )
 

12-2 Se Shodai

11-3 Ow Takakeisho, M14e Tobizaru

Results from day 14

Yes, that was Shodai making Asanoyama look like a mere Maegashira. With that he stayed at the top of the leaderboard and eliminated Asanoyama entirely. Ozeki Takakeisho dispatched Tobizaru and they are the only two that are capable of catching Shodai after Onosho and Wakatakakage were dispatched by Takanosho and Mitakeumi respectively.

Day 15 match-ups

Despite his loss, Tobizaru still has the yusho in his hands as he gets to face Shodai on Day 15. A win by Shodai would guarantee him the yusho, and I think an Ozeki promotion too. A win by Tobizaru would put him and Shodai into a playoff, potentially with Takakeisho if he can overcome fellow Ozeki Asanoyama.

With Mitakeumi having to make room for Tobizaru again, he instead faces Kiribayama, assuming the latter turns up after securing his KK. Daieisho and Okinoumi do face off in their regularly scheduled bout.

Sanyaku

Shodai still hopes for that Ozeki promotion. Mitakeumi gets win number 8 and retains his rank. Takanosho and Terunofuji should be going up. Whether or not a third slot opens up depends on Shodai's Ozeki hopes.

If it does, it certainly won't be going the way of now 8-loss Myogiryu. I had removed Kiribayama when he went kyujo, but I have put him back in as a possibility.

 

  0-0-14 Hakuho Y Kakuryu 0-0-14  
  10-4 Asanoyama O Takakeisho 11-3  
  12-2 Shodai S Mitakeumi 8-6  
(x) 4-10 Daieisho S      
(x) 4-10 Okinoumi K Endo 3-9-2 (x)
             
  8-5-1 Terunofuji M1 Takanosho 9-5  
      M2      
(x) 6-8 Myogiryu M3      
      M4      
  8-4-2 Kiribayama M5      
  9-5 Takayasu M6      
      M7      
      M8 Wakatakakage 10-4  
      M9 Onosho 10-4  
      ...      
  11-3 Tobizaru M14      




Makuuchi-Juryo

A win for Hoshoryu, but losses for Shimanoumi and Ichinojo leaves them all needing one win to be secure. However, looking at the promotion/demotion picture and the matchups for Day 15, I'd venture to guess that Shimanoumi and Hoshoryu are safe anyway. Abi, Kyokutaisei, Ishiura, Shohozan and Kotoshogiku all have records that would seem impossible for them to stay in Makuuchi. 

Chiyonokuni's 13th win should see him promoted to Makuuchi next time around. Kotoyuki is look for win 9, but is probably going up anyway alongside Kotonowaka. An eighth loss for both Wakamotoharu and Chiyomaru eliminates them entirely from any good banzuke luck and I've also removed Churanoumi as even with the win he is now at best number 6 in the promotion queue. 

They've paired Ichinojo with J6 Chiyonoo which suggests that the winner could be in Makuuchi and the loser in Juryo. However, last basho they did the same with Ichinojo-Shohozan and promoted Ichinojo anyway. 

 

      M11 Kotoshogiku 2-9-3 (x)
      M12      
      M13 Ishiura 3-4-7 (x)
      M14 Abi 0-0-14 (x)
(1) 6-8 Shimanoumi M15 Shohozan 4-10 (x)
(x) 2-3-9 Kyokutaisei M16 Hoshoryu 7-7 (1)
(1) 7-7 Ichinojo M17      
             
      J1      
(1) 8-6 Kotoyuki J2 Kotonowaka 9-5 (o)
(x) 6-8 Wakamotoharu J3 Chiyomaru 6-8 (x)
(~) 8-6 Chiyoshoma J4      
      J5      
(~) 9-5 Chiyonoo J6 Akua 9-5 (~)
(x) 8-6 Churanoumi J7      
      J8      
      J9      
(~) 11-3 Akiseyama J10      
      J11 Chiyonokuni 13-1 (o)



Juryo-Makushita

Daishoho lost to visiting Naya and still needs one more to be safe. As @Gurowake said given recent banzuke decisions it probably means that Naya is ahead of Chiyonoumi since Naya beat Daishoho and Chiyonoumi did not. Daishoho has his third straight Makushita opponent to end the basho, this time in the form of injury-returnee Ura. I imagine if Ura wins I think Ura will take Daishoho's place. Since at that point there would be four places open and so Naya would also be promoted. If Ura loses, then there are still three open slots and Naya would be ahead of Ura. So, assuming that they follow the same thinking in promotion that they have done recently we should see Naya making his Juyo debut. Chiyonoumi might have to hope for a sekitori retirement.

 

      J7 Azumaryu 0-0-14 (????)
      ...      
intai   Kizakiumi J12 Daishoho 6-8 (1)
(x) 0-14 Oki J13      
(????) 0-0-14 Fujiazuma J14 Kitaharima 5-9 (x)
             
(o) 4-3 Takagenji Ms1 Jokoryu 4-3 (o)
  4-3 Chiyonoumi Ms2      
      Ms3      
      Ms4 Naya 5-2 (o)
  4-3 Kotodaigo Ms5 Ura 5-1  



~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck
x = favourable outcome definitely missedo = favourable outcome achieved
numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted)
Explanation of symbols used:

Edited by Sakura
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Juryo yusho race through Day 14:

13-1 J11w Chiyonokuni 

11-3 J10e Akiseyama,  

That's it. Chiyonokuni deals with Wakamotoharu's henka and takes the yusho, we're all done here except for some banzuke positioning. 

Finally, if Shodai beats Tobizaru in regulation there will be no playoff in any division this time around.

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