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Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Aki 2020

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A more normal starting time again, with proper service hopefully to be restored for the coming two weeks as well.

The ballot for Aki:

 1. Kotoshoho      10
 2. Terunofuji      8
 3. Suzuki          8*
 4. Amakaze         8
 5. Tokisakae       7*
 6. Kitanowaka      7*
 7. Yoshii          7*
 8. Asanoyama       5  [score?]
 9. Murata          5
10. Kaishin         5
11. Shodai          4  [score?]
12. Terutsuyoshi    4
13. Tobizaru        4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

  • For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
  • For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 13 guys up there and the further 9 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 22. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 12 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Kotoshoho.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

1. Kotoshoho KKMK
2. Terunofuji KKMK
3. Suzuki KKMK
4. Amakaze KKMK
5. Tokisakae KKMK
6. Kitanowaka KKMK
7. Yoshii KKMK
8. Asanoyama W-L
9. Murata KKMK
10. Kaishin KKMK
11. Shodai W-L
12. Terutsuyoshi KKMK
13. Tobizaru KKMK

TB xx

Good luck!

Edited by Asashosakari
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1. Kotoshoho         KK
2. Terunofuji          KK
3. Suzuki                 KK
4. Amakaze            KK
5. Tokisakae          KK
6. Kitanowaka             MK
7. Yoshii                       MK
8. Asanoyama                    12-3
9. Murata                     MK
10. Kaishin                  MK
11. Shodai                           11-4
12. Terutsuyoshi        MK
13. Tobizaru               MK

TB 12

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1. Kotoshoho MK
2. Terunofuji KK
3. Suzuki KK
4. Amakaze MK
5. Tokisakae KK
6. Kitanowaka MK
7. Yoshii MK
8. Asanoyama 11-4
9. Murata KK
10. Kaishin KK
11. Shodai 10-5
12. Terutsuyoshi MK
13. Tobizaru MK

TB 13

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1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Terunofuji KK
3. Suzuki KK
4. Amakaze MK
5. Tokisakae KK
6. Kitanowaka MK
7. Yoshii MK
8. Asanoyama 12-3
9. Murata KK
10. Kaishin MK
11. Shodai 8-7
12. Terutsuyoshi MK
13. Tobizaru KK

TB 12

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 1. Kotoshoho      KK
 2. Terunofuji      KK   
 3. Suzuki           KK
 4. Amakaze        MK
 5. Tokisakae      KK
 6. Kitanowaka   KK
 7. Yoshii             KK
 8. Asanoyama       12
 9. Murata            KK
10. Kaishin          KK
11. Shodai         12
12. Terutsuyoshi     KK
13. Tobizaru       KK

TB:                       12

 

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17 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

 

1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Terunofuji KK
3. Suzuki MK
4. Amakaze KK
5. Tokisakae KK
6. Kitanowaka MK
7. Yoshii MK
8. Asanoyama 13-2
9. Murata KK
10. Kaishin MK
11. Shodai 10-5
12. Terutsuyoshi MK
13. Tobizaru KK

TB: 12

Edited by Sakura
TB change

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1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Terunofuji KK
3. Suzuki KK
4. Amakaze KK
5. Tokisakae KK
6. Kitanowaka KK
7. Yoshii KK
8. Asanoyama 11-4
9. Murata KK
10. Kaishin KK
11. Shodai 8-7
12. Terutsuyoshi KK
13. Tobizaru KK

TB 16

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1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Terunofuji KK
3. Suzuki KK
4. Amakaze MK
5. Tokisakae MK
6. Kitanowaka MK
7. Yoshii MK
8. Asanoyama 13-2
9. Murata KK
10. Kaishin KK
11. Shodai 9-6
12. Terutsuyoshi KK
13. Tobizaru kK

TB 12

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1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Terunofuji KK
3. Suzuki KK
4. Amakaze MK
5. Tokisakae KK
6. Kitanowaka MK
7. Yoshii KK
8. Asanoyama 13-2
9. Murata KK
10. Kaishin MK
11. Shodai 9-6
12. Terutsuyoshi MK
13. Tobizaru MK

TB 12

Edited by Hakuryuho

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. Kotoshoho KK
2. Terunofuji KK
3. Suzuki KK
4. Amakaze KK
5. Tokisakae KK
6. Kitanowaka KK
7. Yoshii MK
8. Asanoyama 13-2
9. Murata KK
10. Kaishin MK
11. Shodai 10-5
12. Terutsuyoshi MK
13. Tobizaru MK

TB 13

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1. Kotoshoho         KK
2. Terunofuji          KK
3. Suzuki                 KK
4. Amakaze            KK
5. Tokisakae          KK
6. Kitanowaka       KK
7. Yoshii                 KK
8. Asanoyama      14
9. Murata               KK
10. Kaishin            MK
11. Shodai            10
12. Terutsuyoshi  MK
13. Tobizaru         MK

TB 16

 

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+ Kotoshoho
+ Terunofuji
- Suzuki
+ Amakaze
- Tokisakae
+ Kitanowaka
- Yoshii
12 Asanoyama
+ Murata
- Kaishin
10 Shodai
- Terutsuyoshi
- Tobizaru

TB 11

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1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Terunofuji KK
3. Suzuki KK
4. Amakaze MK
5. Tokisakae MK
6. Kitanowaka MK
7. Yoshii KK
8. Asanoyama 13-2
9. Murata KK
10. Kaishin MK
11. Shodai 10-5
12. Terutsuyoshi MK
13. Tobizaru KK

TB 12

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The selection stats for this basho's 13 players:

Player K'sho Terun Suzuki Amak Toki Kita Yoshii Asano Murata Kaish Shodai Terut Tobi   TB   Cons
chishafuwaku + + + + + - - - 12-3 - - + 11-4 - - 12 1.54
WAKATAKE - + + - + - - - 11-4 + + + 10-5 - - 13 1.64
Athenayama + + + - + - - - 12-3 + - - 8-7 - + 12 1.27
Profomisakari + + + - + + + - 12-3 + + + 12-3 + + 12 1.62
Sakura + + - + + - - + 13-2 + - + 10-5 - + 12 1.49
Ryoshishokunin + + + - + + - - 11-4 + - - 9-6 - + 13 1.30
Jejima + + + + + + + - 11-4 + + - 8-7 + + 16 1.71
Holleshoryu + + + - - - - + 13-2 + + - 9-6 + + 12 1.78
Hakuryuho + + + - + - + + 13-2 + - - 9-6 - - 12 1.41
Mmikasazuma + + + + + + - + 13-2 + - + 10-5 - - 13 1.30
Achiyama + + + + + + + + 14-1 + - + 10-5 - - 16 1.39
Asashosakari + + - + - + - - 12-3 + - + 10-5 - - 11 1.69
Tsuchinoninjin + + + - - - + + 13-2 + - + 10-5 - + 12 1.49
  12:1 13:0 11:2 6:7 10:3 6:7 5:8 6:7 12:1 4:9 8:5 3:10 7:6    
Results + + + + - + + + + + + - +    

 

Edited by Asashosakari
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Wow, lots of early decisions this basho...

Day 3

The quickest possible end to Asanoyama's 13-2 record which had been projected as the upside score by us, as he opened up Aki basho with three straight losses. Good news for the slight majority who had entered lower guesses.

Day 7

Our first new entry for Kyushu basho was secured here courtesy of comeback kid Ura's 4-0 start to the basho. Another rikishi's hopes were ended in equally quick fashion, however, with an 0-4 for Izumigawa.

Day 8

And another couple of minimum-time KKs, on this day for ballot rikishi Murata who's also blazing along the comeback trail, as well as for newcomer Otsuji who's aiming to join both makushita and LKS in time for his 17th birthday; he has achieved the latter now.

Only one detractor failed to score on Murata, and it was one of the players who had picked up the Asanoyama point earlier, so nobody had to leave the middle weekend completely scoreless.
 

Day 8:
2/13 Decisions, TB 3-21
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Athenayama 2 12
1 Profomisakari 2 12
3 Asashosakari 2 11
3 Ryoshishokunin 2 13
3 WAKATAKE 2 13
6 Jejima 2 16
7 chishafuwaku 1 12
7 Hakuryuho 1 12
7 Holleshoryu 1 12
7 Sakura 1 12
7 Tsuchinoninjin 1 12
12 Mmikasazuma 1 13
13 Achiyama 1 16

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Day 9

And yet more positive outcomes, most notably a 4-1 record by potential future star Suzuki for his 9th straight kachikoshi since turning pro. A very impressive result for his first appearance in the upper half of makushita, coming off a major jump up the rankings after his July 6-1, no less. All but two players correctly expected him to continue his ascent this basho.

4-1 also for 30-year-old veteran Sadanoryu, who has picked up 5 KKs now since he changed his name from Obamaumi after two tournaments missed through injury. We'll be seeing him on the ballot proper for November.

One player left the leading group again.
 

Day 9:
3/13 Decisions, TB 5-21
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Ryoshishokunin 3 13
1 WAKATAKE 3 13
3 Athenayama 3 12
3 Profomisakari 3 12
5 Jejima 3 16
6 Mmikasazuma 2 13
7 chishafuwaku 2 12
7 Hakuryuho 2 12
7 Holleshoryu 2 12
7 Tsuchinoninjin 2 12
11 Asashosakari 2 11
12 Achiyama 2 16
13 Sakura 1 12

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Day 10

A couple of new scores to finish off the middle third of the basho. Makuuchi newcomer Tobizaru has been a man possessed for his top division debut; he ran his score to 8-2 on this day, and just might end up posting his most wins ever as a sekitori here as he never went past 10 wins in juryo. Conversely, young collegiate hope Tokisakae has found himself running into his personal wall at last and fell to 2-4 in his 8th ranked tournament. In addition sekiwake Shodai achieved an early KK as well to retain his ballot spot, but he needs a couple more wins for his 10-5 target record.

The Tobizaru KK was a slight majority choice, while only 3 players predicted Tokisakae's result. A pair of players in Holleshoryu and Tsuchinoninjin scored with both, but neither was among of the leaders coming into the day, so they're just new co-leaders with plenty of others.
 

Day 10:
5/13 Decisions, TB 7-20
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Ryoshishokunin 4 13
2 Athenayama 4 12
2 Holleshoryu 4 12
2 Profomisakari 4 12
2 Tsuchinoninjin 4 12
6 Jejima 4 16
7 WAKATAKE 3 13
8 Asashosakari 3 11
9 Mmikasazuma 2 13
10 chishafuwaku 2 12
10 Hakuryuho 2 12
10 Sakura 2 12
13 Achiyama 2 16

 

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 11

And the same results in summary as on the previous day, with a sanyaku KK alongside one positive and one negative outcome. Ozeki Asanoyama completed the 8-3 turnaround from his opening losing streak and will be around for us to predict on again in November, and so will Terunofuji who is certain to find himself back in sanyaku after today's kachikoshi. (Good thing for LKS, too, after this basho's boring unanimous KK votes...) Not joining us for not-Kyushu is the ex-ozeki's Isegahama stablemate Terutsuyoshi after today's 3-8 makekoshi. That one has also come as a relatively unsurprising outcome with only three players who had expected him to KK.

One more backupper secured his ballot spot as well with Dewataikai achieving his 5th straight KK, in his makushita debut no less.

All three players who picked the wrong Terutsuyoshi result were among yesterday's 6 leaders, so we're down to half as many frontrunners now.
 

Day 11:
7/13 Decisions, TB 10-19
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Ryoshishokunin 6 13
2 Athenayama 6 12
2 Tsuchinoninjin 6 12
4 Jejima 5 16
4 WAKATAKE 5 13
6 Holleshoryu 5 12
6 Profomisakari 5 12
8 Asashosakari 5 11
9 Achiyama 4 16
9 Mmikasazuma 4 13
11 chishafuwaku 4 12
11 Hakuryuho 4 12
11 Sakura 4 12

 

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 12

Wow, quite some upheaval here in LKS with lots and lots of new decisions. Starting at the top, the day saw sekiwake Shodai's target-clinching 10th win. Youngster Kotoshoho avoided the sophomore slump in his second top division appearance and secured his kachikoshi today, running his impressive streak of positive basho records further into double digits. An even newer hope in Kitanowaka is also KK in the makushita division, and yet another kachikoshi was scored by our bottom-ranked ballot member Kaishin in sandanme.

The two sekitori results were majority expectations, but fewer than half of us had foreseen these outcomes for the toriteki pair. Quite a few players did manage to collect three points today, not including any of yesterday's three leaders though, while one intrepid entrant picked up the full four points. And he's now the sole leader:
 

Day 12:
11/13 Decisions, TB 15-17
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Profomisakari 9 12
2 Jejima 8 16
3 Asashosakari 8 11
3 Ryoshishokunin 8 13
3 Tsuchinoninjin 8 12
6 Achiyama 7 16
7 Athenayama 7 12
7 Holleshoryu 7 12
7 Mmikasazuma 7 13
7 WAKATAKE 7 13
11 chishafuwaku 6 12
11 Sakura 6 12
13 Hakuryuho 5 12


The backup team has achieved the astonishing feat of being completely done already as none of its 9 members is 3-3 after Day 12. Completing the slate the day brought mixed results, with kachikoshi and November ballot entry for Jokoryu (quite likely as a sekitori again after nearly two years) as well as often-injured Tosamidori, and makekoshi for Kotoseigo and Tennozan. So that's 6 ballot additions for next time, quite a large batch of successful applicants.


So with still three days to go we're down to just two undecided rikishi, these being veteran ex-maegashira Amakaze and 17-year-old phenom Yoshii, both 3-3 of course. The list of players who can still catch up to the leader's score includes four names: 3 of Profomisakari's 4 pursuers - Tsuchinoninjin is out having identical picks to the leader - alongside two-points-down Mmikasazuma.

The only possible outright winners are Profomisakari with MK for Amakaze and KK for Yoshii, and Asashosakari with both results the other way around. Makekoshi for both would see Profomisakari and Ryoshishokunin jointly atop the table, with the latter taking it on a 7th bracket tie-breaker (that's Yoshii). A double KK would see a tied score between Profomisakari and Jejima, where Jejima would be winning in 4 brackets (that's Amakaze). In other words, every possible combination of the two still-to-come results will crown a different LKS champion. Couldn't have written it any better!

Mmikasazuma is out of the running as her preferred outcome is also Asashosakari's, so her ability to catch the current leader is unfortunately insufficient to actually win.

Amakaze will go first, so we'll be down to two yusho contenders after Day 13, before Yoshii's final match will serve to decide the winner on Day 14.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 13

Victory for Amakaze to complete a nuke-nuke kachikoshi with the 5th straight 4-3 record in his now 9-KK streak, so our yusho race has come down to Jejima and Asashosakari.
 

Day 13:
12/13 Decisions, TB 16-17
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Jejima 9 16
2 Asashosakari 9 11
2 Profomisakari 9 12
4 Achiyama 8 16
5 Mmikasazuma 8 13
5 Ryoshishokunin 8 13
5 Tsuchinoninjin 8 12
8 Athenayama 7 12
8 chishafuwaku 7 12
8 Holleshoryu 7 12
8 Sakura 7 12
8 WAKATAKE 7 13
13 Hakuryuho 5 12


Achiyama and Jejima can still hit the tie-breaker with their (what I thought to be absurdly high...) guesses of 16 if Yoshii loses tomorrow. I have a feeling Jejima would still prefer him to win, though. ;-)

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Sorry about the delay!

Day 14

Kachikoshi at the finish line for youngster Yoshii, and therefore the LKS yusho goes to Jejima! It's his 9th career yusho, but the others were all quite a way back, most recently in Natsu 2014. Profomisakari takes the yusho-doten with the same points score, unfortunately losing a bracket playoff for the fourth time in four attempts. Day 13 co-contender Asashosakari has had to settle for a share of third place.

The final standings:
 

Day 15:
13/13 Decisions, TB 17
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Jejima 10 16
2 Profomisakari 10 12
3 Achiyama 9 16
3 Asashosakari 9 11
3 Tsuchinoninjin 9 12
6 Mmikasazuma 8 13
6 Ryoshishokunin 8 13
8 Athenayama 7 12
8 chishafuwaku 7 12
8 Holleshoryu 7 12
8 Sakura 7 12
8 WAKATAKE 7 13
13 Hakuryuho 6 12

No hits on the extremely high tie-breaker result of 17 KK from 22 participating rikishi.


The new ballot for Kyushu 2020:

 1. Kotoshoho      11
 2. Terunofuji      9
 3. Suzuki          9*
 4. Amakaze         9
    Tokisakae       7*
 5. Kitanowaka      8*
 6. Yoshii          8*
 7. Asanoyama       6
 8. Murata          6
 9. Kaishin         6
10. Shodai          5
    Terutsuyoshi    4
11. Tobizaru        5
12. Jokoryu         5
13. Ura             5
14. Dewataikai      5
15. Sadanoryu       5
16. Otsuji          5
17. Tosamidori      5
---
18. Wakatakakage    4
19. Hoshoryu        4
20. Chiyonoo        4

Lots of predicting work for us next time around.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Scores for banzuke purposes:

Jejima 11 (10+top)
Profomisakari 11 (10+top)
Achiyama 9
Asashosakari 9
Tsuchinoninjin 9
Mmikasazuma 8
Ryoshishokunin 8
Athenayama 7
chishafuwaku 7
Holleshoryu 7
Sakura 7
WAKATAKE 7
Hakuryuho 6

Total: 106 / 13 = 8.15 ---> no adjustment

Minus 1 win was narrowly indicated by the average score, but as usual when it's close I also looked at the potential KK/MK splits, and the non-adjustment led to a better split of 7/6 than the reduced score would have with 5/8.


The new banzuke for Kyushu 2020:

Asashosakari (Ye 9-6)       Y   ---
Mmikasazuma (O2w 8-7)       O1  chishafuwaku (O1e 7-8)
---                         O2  Athenayama (O1w 7-8)
Jejima (M3e 11-4 Y)         S   Tsuchinoninjin (M1e 9-6)
Profomisakari (M6e 11-4 D)  K   Achiyama (M4e 9-6)
Holleshoryu (Se 7-8)        M1  Pandaazuma (Kw kosho)
wolfgangho (M2e kosho)      M2  WAKATAKE (M1w 7-8)
Ryoshishokunin (M6w 8-7)    M3  Sakura (M3w 7-8)
Hakuryuho (M5w 6-9)         M4  Tenshinhan (Sw 0-0-15)
Rocks (Ke 0-0-15)           M5  ryafuji (M2w 0-0-15)
Katsunorifuji (M4w 0-0-15)  M6  Pitinosato (M5e 0-0-15)

Mmikasazuma narrowly escaped from kadoban status, while chishafuwaku (ending his tsunatori) and Athenayama find themselves in that predicament for Kyushu. 

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