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Kaminariyuki

Aki Predictions (Only as ridiculous as you like)

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I think I was better at this, myself, when I didn't know squat about sumo. Mostly looking for yusho predictions here, but with only three days to go, knock yourselves out, anything that you want in indelible digital ink before the basho begins. Of course, I'll start:

Asanoyama's second makuuchi yusho

Enho returns to KK territory (the myth that he's been "figure out" persists, but loses steam)

Ura ysho and returns to sekitori ranks

 

 

 

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Not a prediction but a question: what happens if Terunofuji yushos again? Is he auto-promoted to Ozeki? 

Edited by Kaninoyama

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17 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

Not a prediction but a question: what happens if Terunofuji yushos again? Is he auto-promoted to Ozeki? 

Quite unlikely. He'd need another yusho to be considered and even so with 2 basho out of sanyaku proper, there may be a lot of arguing at the banzuke committee before it happens.

I'd rather he turn in a solid 11 consistently and get to ozeki later than sooner; the last comeback from injury with a push to ozeki ended up not being very spectacular at the rank. 

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1 hour ago, Kaninoyama said:

Not a prediction but a question: what happens if Terunofuji yushos again? Is he auto-promoted to Ozeki? 

No, and he doesn't get the rope either.(Onthebanzuke...)

The usual criterion, as the real pros on the Forum (not me) know, is 33 wins over three basho.  The committee starts getting sniffy if one of the basho was in the lower joi (~M4).  Imagine if the first basho was in Juryo! Ol' Gangula would have to zensho yusho, then whip the Shimpan crew in an all-against-one, etc.  Even then, he'd be denied because he had a fusen win.

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I think this will be Asanoyama's tournament. I think he won't be nervous anymore since he now knows how it's like to be an Ozeki. I think that was a big issue for him especially in the last few days when he had to face the higher ranked guys and an Ex-Ozeki with the eventual winner Terunofuji.

As much as it pains me to admit this I have to say that I don't think Takakeisho will win this basho. I don't even think he will finish the basho to be quite honest, the 14kg increase on his already big body won't be helpful with making sure that his body and especially his knees hold up.

I think Hoshoryu will get double digit wins and get a special prize in his first makuuchi tournament.

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I think this banzuke, of all the ones since Hakuho started pulling out regularly, is the closest we've been to seeing what the new generation of sumo looks like. We've got an ozeki looking to be in great shape for a rope in a year, three sekiwake finally looking like ozeki prospects, a scattering of rising talent in the middle of the banzuke, and hot new entrants. More excitingly, it's entirely plausible that based on their performances last basho, four men at the top of the banzuke are front runners for the cup, with the possibility of another M17 spoiler from Ichinojo who's come tantalisingly close twice before. It's exciting times for us sumo fans.

The even better news is, I don't think it matters who wins this tournament, amongst the top quintuplet of Asanoyama, Shodai, Mitakeumi, Daieisho and Terunofuji. The three sekiwake either can make ozeki or can sustain a run with strong results even without a yusho, Terunofuji will go up to sanyaku with a KK, and Asanoyama can still start a rope run with a yusho-doten. The bad news is, all five of them needing good results means that the rest of the joijin will take a thrashing.

Serious stuff out of the way, now for a very ill-fated prediction:

Considering how the front runners are all but guaranteed to meet each other, I think a 12-3 result is the most likely yusho score, especially if the winner is Asanoyama, Shodai, or Mitakeumi. 13-2 is possible from Asanoyama as well, but only Terunofuji can pull a 14-1, I think - the other three are too evenly matched in strength to beat the other two as well as Terunofuji. I think the yusho goes down to a 13-2 playoff between Asanoyama and Terunofuji, with a double promotion for Shodai and Mitakeumi at 12-3!

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Meisei is the top riser on the November banzuke.

Sadanoumi goes 8-7 or 7-8.

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12 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

Not a prediction but a question: what happens if Terunofuji yushos again? Is he auto-promoted to Ozeki? 

Obviously, it would put him in wagyu territory for November.

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Ridiculous predictions are more my specialty, but I'll have a go at some real ones anyway:

I'm predicting a makekoshi for Hoshoryu or maybe an 8-7. 9-6 is within the realm of possibility (but outside my prediction). I'd be surprised by anything above that.

The yusho will go to one of "the usual non-yokozuna suspects," i.e. Asanoyama or Mitakeumi.

I also expect a performance drop for Terunofuji, but I expected that before the last basho so he'll probably go undefeated this time.

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Asanoyama clearly has ozeki staying power whether or not the current yokozuna attend a basho. He's probably number one on everyone's list of next yokozuna at this point too.

I really wonder about Takakeisho. He became Ozeki in a very strange time. It might have been better for his long term career if he hadn't made Ozeki so young. If Shodai's step up from the last two basho is real and mitakeumi continues to gather it together, Takakeisho is in a bind.

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Asanoyama is the safest bet for yusho so I’ll predict he wins it all this month. He’s getting better and better and I see him joining the Yokozuna ranks before next summer.

Shodai and Mitakeumi both have good, double digit win tournaments and tie for runner up. Both are Ozeki by the end of the year. 
 

Terunofuji has a good tournament but fighting against higher rank opponents from day one combined with a shorter turnaround time from the last basho slows him down just enough that he doesn’t repeat the yusho. 
 

Takakeisho I really hope has a good tournament or at least gets his KK. I wasn’t a big fan a year or so back when he looked poised to dominate sumo, but now that he is struggling I really want to see him back in that old form. I’ll guess 8-7. 
 

Predictions aside it’s going to be an exciting basho with an interesting story line behind whoever does win in the end. 

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I reckon Asanoyama will be the favourite, followed by Shodai and Mitakeumi, but the situation is like 1991/1992 where the old guard is fading and the new guard is taking turns to establish supremacy.  So another unlikely winner is a strong possibility as well.

 

If Terunofuji gets 10 or 11 wins this time, he'll be doing well.   I don't think Takakeisho will be much of a factor, his lack of height plus the dramatic weight gain - I would be surprised if he lasts very long at ozeki.

 

Swami

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LOL, maybe I can restrain myself from putting this up again next basho. Several of liked Asanoyama before it started, and I still think he has ah  chance, but you really don't like to lose on Day 1.

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Yeah, I thoroughly jinxed my two front runners. Endo yusho, you heard it here first :D

 

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On 13/09/2020 at 14:44, Seiyashi said:

Yeah, I thoroughly jinxed my two front runners. Endo yusho, you heard it here first :D

 

Ah, wait, you meant Miyogiryu, right? I absolutely should not laugh, but it distracts me from my own questionable prognosticating. Endo looked great on Day 1. I haven't seen the highlights yet today, but I thin I really will try to restrain myself from putting this thread up again in November. Of course, I'll forget by then and be cranked for another basho and will probably do it again...

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On 13/09/2020 at 14:44, Seiyashi said:

Yeah, I thoroughly jinxed my two front runners. Endo yusho, you heard it here first :D

 

Maybe that was a typo and you meant Enho for the yusho/  :)  No, I suppose that's not too likely. That would have been me, and I guess it would have belonged in the other prediction thread.

I would make another brash long-shot prediction here, but I don't want to hex the smaller salt-thrower...who was looking superb at the end of the last basho and on Day 1 here.

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