Kintamayama

September (Aki) Basho- offical thread (yay..)

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1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

Not sure about the time difference, but if it’s the 22nd, we share a birthday. Happy birthday!

Happy Birthday to both of you   (Birthday!)

You are so blessed because it's Yutakayama's birthday, too (my ikemen no. 1 (Inlove...))

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You both share a birthday with Bilbo and Frodo Baggins

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41 minutes ago, Mezzosoprano said:

Happy Birthday to both of you   (Birthday!)

You are so blessed because it's Yutakayama's birthday, too (my ikemen no. 1 (Inlove...))

Oh, that’s right. I actually noticed that last year. I’m exactly 10 years older than him and I have the same arthritic knees he will have if he retires in a decade.

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5 hours ago, pricklypomegranate said:

Or perhaps not. If it does go down to 12-3 or 11-4, with at least 2 fusensho, I don't think Asanoyama is making a great case for yokozuna before November. What do you guys think? I personally think that even if Asanoyama gets the yusho (which is a long shot with still so many first place contenders), it would still not be accepted. Is this widespread scramble for the yusho because there is no "common enemy" in a yokozuna to motivate them forward, or symptomatic of a larger problem of not having enough dominant players?  

It would seem that God never wants Asanoyama on time. :-D He made it to Juryo after his high school trainer died, made it to Ozeki after his university trainer died and may not make Yokozuna before Takasago retires. 

Would love to hear what you guys think. 

Arguably, Asanoyama is on a tsuna run, although a very tentative one.  If by some miracle he manages to win the yusho this time around, he will essentially have a consecutive junyusho + yusho record.  That's what Kakuryu had when he got promoted to Yokozuna in 2014.  But, and it is a big "but", the quality of Kakuryu's consecutive finishes was significantly more impressive 14-1-P and 14-1 versus Asanoyama's 12-3 and 12-3 at best.  

So my feeling is that he would not qualify for promotion after this tournament, even if he wins the yusho.  However, if he somehow manages to win the September Tournament yusho, and follows it up with a consecutive yusho in November (with victories over Hakuho and/or Kakuryu), then the odds of him getting his tuna before Takasago oyakata retires would be pretty good IMHO.

 

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2 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Oh, that’s right. I actually noticed that last year. I’m exactly 10 years older than him and I have the same arthritic knees he will have if he retires in a decade.

I'm sensing your wife's birthday present to you was not all that out of line... ;-)

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No way is Asanoyama on any tsuna run.

The absolute best he can do right now is 12-3, in a no-kozuna basho.

Plus, to get promoted so soon after making Ozeki, wouldn't he need results that really demand it for sure?

Edited by yohcun

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9 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

I'm sensing your wife's birthday present to you was not all that out of line... ;-)

No, I had a bad back for about a month thanks to working from home and not having an ergonomic chair. It’s better now but evidently she thinks I still need the support.

Anyway, enough about my failing musculoskeletal system, how about the sumo? ;)

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I love Terutsuyoshi's pre-match theatrical routine - a real showman. Genuine question though - does that kind of thing piss other rikishi off? 

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4 minutes ago, Morty said:

I love Terutsuyoshi's pre-match theatrical routine - a real showman. Genuine question though - does that kind of thing piss other rikishi off? 

I wonder if they find it disruptive to their own routine since they have to wait for him to do his salt shower before they can go back into the ring. He sets the tempo in a way. That must annoy some.

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59 minutes ago, Morty said:

I love Terutsuyoshi's pre-match theatrical routine - a real showman. Genuine question though - does that kind of thing piss other rikishi off? 

It used to bother me as cocky showboating until I heard the story behind it. Apparently, the town or prefecture he hails from was badly devastated by the tsunami. Huge loss of life and property. Lots of trauma and ptsd for survivors. He does the salt routine to inspire those in his hometown and give them something thrilling to cheer them. I think any rikishi who know motive this could get behind it. There’s also a history of guys who threw big salt, like Mitoizumi 

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Waka on Abema had changed his yusho prediction on day 8 to Terunofuji, after picking Takakeisho on day 1, so the 2 are out of the race.

It is looking better and better again for Onosho.

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1 hour ago, Amamaniac said:
7 hours ago, pricklypomegranate said:

Or perhaps not. If it does go down to 12-3 or 11-4, with at least 2 fusensho, I don't think Asanoyama is making a great case for yokozuna before November. What do you guys think? I personally think that even if Asanoyama gets the yusho (which is a long shot with still so many first place contenders), it would still not be accepted. Is this widespread scramble for the yusho because there is no "common enemy" in a yokozuna to motivate them forward, or symptomatic of a larger problem of not having enough dominant players?  

It would seem that God never wants Asanoyama on time. :-D He made it to Juryo after his high school trainer died, made it to Ozeki after his university trainer died and may not make Yokozuna before Takasago retires. 

Would love to hear what you guys think. 

Arguably, Asanoyama is on a tsuna run, although a very tentative one.  If by some miracle he manages to win the yusho this time around, he will essentially have a consecutive junyusho + yusho record.  That's what Kakuryu had when he got promoted to Yokozuna in 2014.  But, and it is a big "but", the quality of Kakuryu's consecutive finishes was significantly more impressive 14-1-P and 14-1 versus Asanoyama's 12-3 and 12-3 at best.  

So my feeling is that he would not qualify for promotion after this tournament, even if he wins the yusho.  However, if he somehow manages to win the September Tournament yusho, and follows it up with a consecutive yusho in November (with victories over Hakuho and/or Kakuryu), then the odds of him getting his tuna before Takasago oyakata retires would be pretty good IMHO.

I think, as someone else put it recently, the quality of the makuuchi joi has reached parity such that it's a coin toss how they do against each other. There was a recent debate about what factor a declining yokozuna plays in the promotion, or lack thereof, of deserving candidates, but I argued then that since you can lose to a yokozuna in a playoff and still be promoted, the yokozuna don't necessarily bear on the matter. In addition, in true nokozuna scenarios (i.e. prior to Akebono's promotion), you don't even have a yokozuna to beat; therefore, it is the rikishi who can dominate enough to win two yushos or at least reach playoffs that is worthy of promotion.

I don't know how sumo used to be like pre-Hakuho; it may be that he is such an over-the-top recent example that no one else can imagine reaching yokozuna, but that's clearly not the case given three yokozuna promotions after him. It's more like you had a batch of recent really unfortunately and/or hapless ozeki - since Kisenosato, you've had something like 5-6 ozeki and, with 1 in 2 ozeki expected to be yokozuna, none of them ascending is really bad luck. So we had to both wait for that batch to retire and for new blood to come in. Much of 2019 was a beyond-sad case of Tochinoshin and Takakeisho taking turns to ride the ozekiwake escalator, and then once they were done, Takayasu hopped on, and then Goeido damn nearly went and hopped on too. And all this while, you had people on hot but inconsistent streaks like Tamawashi (5-10, 10-5, 5-10 in three consecutive tournaments after his yusho), Mitakeumi (nuff said), Aoiyama, Hokutofuji, Endo turning up and claiming a sanyaku spot every once in a while. It's worth noting that Asanoyama only got to komusubi in the one tournament they created 4 komusubi for, otherwise he'd have been jammed at M1e and we might not even have seen him as an ozeki here (11 wins from M1e not being an autopromotion unlike 11 wins from komusubi, for example). 

That's not the case here where the sanyaku and joi are still a little rough around the edges and dropping bouts they shouldn't be. I think John Gunning in one of his recent articles theorised that the lack of degeiko is robbing the sanyaku of their chance to polish their sumo against their would-be rivals. Considering how many bouts they can fight in san-ban degeiko against each other (double-digits in a single morning), having that same process take place one bout at a time over consecutive basho really slows things down. Every single member of the sanyaku this tournament has dropped bouts they really shouldn't be dropping if they were dominating, excuse or otherwise. So it's really just that no one has taken their sumo to the next level and is demolishing all comers enough to say, right, I'm the next yokozuna, come and get me suckers. 

1 hour ago, yohcun said:

No way is Asanoyama on any tsuna run.

The absolute best he can do right now is 12-3, in a no-kozuna basho.

Plus, to get promoted so soon after making Ozeki, wouldn't he need results that really demand it for sure?

I agree Asanoyama, at best, is just starting a tsuna run this tournament, and that is extremely contingent on him getting the yusho (which is a bit of a tall order given the arasoi at the moment). Isegahama shimpan-cho said a 12-3 J wasn't cutting it last round, and considering less than stellar results this time, I don't see any reason for them to go back and revisit it. The only way this 12-3 Y would count is if Asanoyama yushos in November because of the consecutive yusho criteria. I don't see Asanoyama or Takasago turning it down if it happens, but I do expect loads of grumbling about this basho's result in that event.  (but see above re the impact of a nokozuna basho).

The fastest promotion to yokozuna was in 3 tournaments as ozeki, a record shared by Asashoryu, Chiyonofuji, and Kitanoumi. It's no coincidence all three of them are ichidai-toshiyori-level dai-yokozuna. I don't see Asanoyama as that sort of barnstormer, and it's possible that whatever yokozuna/ozeki coming out of this current batch of sanyaku are just going to be seat warmers for the next generation of hot stuff just making their way out of makushita and juryo right now (i.e. Kotonowaka, Kotoshoho, Hoshoryu, the Onami brothers, the Taiho grandsons etc).

Edited by Seiyashi
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On 21/09/2020 at 10:22, Hakuryuho said:

Terunofuji is not gonna lose another bout.

I'm rivalling the Oracle of Delphi 

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6 minutes ago, Hakuryuho said:
On 21/09/2020 at 16:22, Hakuryuho said:

Terunofuji is not gonna lose another bout.

I'm rivalling the Oracle of Delphi 

Well, you also can't lose another bout if you retire..... #justsaying

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8 hours ago, pricklypomegranate said:

Just heard that more woes plague the rising star, Kiribayama. It seems to be a rotator cuff injury. Lucki Hideki :-D

Or perhaps not. If it does go down to 12-3 or 11-4, with at least 2 fusensho, I don't think Asanoyama is making a great case for yokozuna before November. What do you guys think? I personally think that even if Asanoyama gets the yusho (which is a long shot with still so many first place contenders), it would still not be accepted. Is this widespread scramble for the yusho because there is no "common enemy" in a yokozuna to motivate them forward, or symptomatic of a larger problem of not having enough dominant players?  

It would seem that God never wants Asanoyama on time. :-D He made it to Juryo after his high school trainer died, made it to Ozeki after his university trainer died and may not make Yokozuna before Takasago retires. 

Would love to hear what you guys think. 

P.S. It's my birthday and I realised I usually get sumo on my birthday so truly I am blessed (Holidayfeeling...)

Happy Birthday!

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47 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

The fastest promotion to yokozuna was in 3 tournaments as ozeki, a record shared by Asashoryu, Chiyonofuji, and Kitanoumi. It's no coincidence all three of them are ichidai-toshiyori-level dai-yokozuna. I don't see Asanoyama as that sort of barnstormer, and it's possible that whatever yokozuna/ozeki coming out of this current batch of sanyaku are just going to be seat warmers for the next generation of hot stuff just making their way out of makushita and juryo right now (i.e. Kotonowaka, Kotoshoho, Hoshoryu, the Onami brothers, the Taiho grandsons etc).

10 minutes ago, Hakuryuho said:

I'm rivalling the Oracle of Delphi 

Speaking of the Oracle of Delphi, it's fun to predict how many yusho Asanoyama will have in his lifetime. Excluding some standouts like Asanoyama and maybe Takakeisho and Terunofuji (whose life will probably be short), I think the current generation of makuuchi, especially the current sanyaku simply lack something (not sure if its talent or will) and will be swallowed up by the new generation (i.e. Kotos, Hoshoryu, maybe even Hokuseiho wayyy into the future). Therefore, I think Asanoyama will win more yusho than Kisenosato, but might struggle to get even Kakuryu level of yusho. It's not that Kakuryu is a bad wrestler (I think Kakuryu is the only one that can match Hakuho's technical and yotsu-sumo when healthy right now). I do think that Asanoyama has the potential to be better than Kakuryu. However, I think judging from his skill level, he'll be so swamped by the rivals (which Hakuho and Kakuryu shall never live to fight) that he will just be bogged down. 

Also, don't want to be speculative, but I suspect Asanoyama has the same level of mental brittleness that Kisenosato had. Don't get me wrong, Kisenosato was as tough as nails and a damn good wrestler - being the first Japanese yokozuna in a few decades is not easy task, but I always felt he was mentally lacking in some aspect. I feel like both of them don't have the grit of Hakuho (whom they shouldn't be compared to as he is quite a phenomenon) or the Kakuryu-ness of Kakuryu (not sure what it is. Is it calm?)

Again, I hope I don't get dragged down by this predictions by people with the receipts with Asanoyama being a 20 yusho winner :-P

Edited by pricklypomegranate
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46 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Tochinoshin and Takakeisho taking turns to ride the ozekiwake escalator, and then once they were done, Takayasu hopped on,

Did you mean to switch Takakeisho and Takayasu?

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It may be an indictment of the level of sumo in makunouchi that the match I am most looking forward to on Day 11 is Hokuseiho vs Shishi in jonidan.

And now I am officially juryo, do I get paid for posting? Can I have my own room? Wear turquoise? Get married?

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Just now, Tigerboy1966 said:

It may be an indictment of the level of sumo in makunouchi that the match I am most looking forward to on Day 11 is Hokuseiho vs Shishi in jonidan.

And now I am officially juryo, do I get paid for posting? Can I have my own room? Wear turquoise? Get married?

With the way his makunouchi students are doing now, I bet Hakuho feels the same :-D

Congrats on reaching sekitori level! I just got out of my geta... 

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22 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Did you mean to switch Takakeisho and Takayasu?

No, I meant Tochinoshin and Takakeisho. Started in Haru 2019 where Tochinoshin and Takakeisho swapped ranks, then Natsu 2019 where Tochinoshin earned repromotion (including that bout against Asanoyama) but Takakeisho went double kyujo and kadoban, then Nagoya 2019 where Takakeisho sat out (and therefore would be ozekiwake) and Tochinoshin went kyujo and kadoban, then Aki 2019 where Takakeisho went 12-3 and repromoted but Tochinoshin went ozekiwake himself, and then in Kyushu 2019 Tochinoshin failed to repromote and Takayasu, as kadoban ozeki, himself went down. And Goeido was also kadoban heading into Hatsu 2020, but chose to retire rather than to fight as ozekiwake in Haru 2020. So we had a double ozeki repromotion from ozekiwake in 2019 alone when only 4-5 people (out of presumably 100+ ozeki but probably a lot less demotions, including Kotooshu and Chiyotaikai) had done it before, the prior record holder being Tochiazuma II (the current Tamanoi-oyakata) who did it twice. 

If the above looks like a hot, steaming mess... that's because it was. 2019 was not a good year to be ozeki.

22 minutes ago, pricklypomegranate said:

Also, don't want to be speculative, but I suspect Asanoyama has the same level of mental brittleness that Kisenosato had. Don't get me wrong, Kisenosato was as tough as nails and a damn good wrestler - being the first Japanese yokozuna in a few decades is not easy task, but I always felt he was mentally lacking in some aspect. I feel like both of them don't have the grit of Hakuho (whom they shouldn't be compared to as he is quite a phenomenon) or the Kakuryu-ness of Kakuryu (not sure what it is. Is it calm?)

Again, I hope I don't get dragged down by this predictions by people with the receipts :-P

Well, it's still really early days yet for Asanoyama. It is true Kisenosato went through a few noticeable stages in his mental evolution, but for Asanoyama, a 2nd basho as ozeki is way too early to tell, especially when, unlike Kisenosato, you a) don't have a huge string of jun-yusho and major league upsets to your name and b) are expected not to be just the next Japanese yokozuna, but the next yokozuna, period. The pressure on Asanoyama at this point, whether self-inflicted or otherwise, is way less justified than it was for Kisenosato, and so it's much more understandable if Asanoyama chokes. Of course, if he makes a regular habit of this into the next year, then that's when the Kisenosato comparisons will start in earnest, and then make it all much worse.

22 minutes ago, pricklypomegranate said:

It's not that Kakuryu is a bad wrestler (I think Kakuryu is the only one that can match Hakuho's technical and yotsu-sumo when healthy right now). I do think that Asanoyama has the potential to be better than Kakuryu. However, I think he'll be so swamped by the rivals (which Hakuho and Kakuryu shall never live to fight) that he will just be bogged down. 

Asanoyama's sumo has noticeably calmed down a bit since the start of the basho; he was way way too eager to finish things off early on and that undid him thrice. His sumo is a bit more dynamic than Kakuryu's; so comparing them might be a bit of apples to oranges. Besides, Kakuryu is really the only one left of Hakuho's generation of wrestlers who still fights him on a regular basis - Shohozan and Kotoshogiku have dropped too far down the banzuke, and the old guard of ozeki almost never made it to senshuraku to fight him over the past year. With Hakuho I don't think it's a matter of matching, it's more a matter of respect, because Hakuho will harite and kachiage the everloving bejeesus out of the young punks (and even nekodamashi Tochiozan twice in a bout) but he won't do it to his yokozuna peer however inferior. So you get a good classic yotsu battle between the two, which never happens with Hakuho and anyone else because someone will be trying something funny somewhere somehow.

As for rivalries, Asanoyama is young enough that I think he just might have a chance to reach dai-yokozuna level. Rivalries are not necessarily a bad thing for this; sumo is defined as much by its rivalries as it is by its luminaries, and a lot of good wrestlers have been shaken and declined before their time because their rival suddenly dropped out. Classic pairs would be Taiho-Kashiwado, Wakanohana I-Tochinishiki, Kitanofuji-Tamanoumi (which ended prematurely due to Tamanoumi's death while still active), and, in more recent times, Akebono-WakaTaka, Asashoryu-Hakuho and Hakuho-Harumafuji. It's way too early to tell, given none of them are yokozuna yet, who Asanoyama's great rival as yokozuna will be, although the money is good that it'll be a relatively even one.

Edited by Seiyashi

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11 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

It may be an indictment of the level of sumo in makunouchi that the match I am most looking forward to on Day 11 is Hokuseiho vs Shishi in jonidan.

And now I am officially juryo, do I get paid for posting? Can I have my own room? Wear turquoise? Get married?

I'm a Sekiwake now, so let's see ... you get half my pay.

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14 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

It may be an indictment of the level of sumo in makunouchi that the match I am most looking forward to on Day 11 is Hokuseiho vs Shishi in jonidan.

And now I am officially juryo, do I get paid for posting? Can I have my own room? Wear turquoise? Get married?

Not in Kokonoe stable you won't. Get to yokozuna first, and then maybe you'll be allowed to get married.... :-P

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5 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

So Asanoyama will get another freebie this basho and moves to 7-3, level with Terunofuji.

Shodai secures his Sekiwake status for next basho, maintains his place tied for the lead and is just a couple of wins off what he needs to make next basho makes Ozeki confirmation more straightforward.

Question, if Shodai wins out (crazy thought I know) would he get promoted to Ozeki with 32 wins and a yusho? 

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17 minutes ago, nelimw said:

Question, if Shodai wins out (crazy thought I know) would he get promoted to Ozeki with 32 wins and a yusho? 

He just might. We only have two Ozeki right now and there’s a fair chance of either one or both getting demoted or promoted out of the rank in the next year. Add that both Yokozuna aren’t long for the game and the stars may just be aligning for Shodai to benefit from some leniency. I’ve argued before that sometimes the Kyokai needs to seize an opportunity to promote to Y/O when it comes along or else risk one not coming along again for a while. An 8-7, 11-4, 13-2Y run, preceded by two jun-yusho further down the banzuke (with one 13-2 in the joi) makes a strong case. Heck, he might not even need the yusho with 13-2. His run of form is not that dissimilar to Asanoyama’s during his run actually, albeit he got his hands on the cup while Shodai lost out to M17 Tokushoryu.

Shodai

M10: 11-4J 
M4: 13-2J 
S: 8-7
S: 11-4 
S: 8-2*

Asanoyama

M8: 12-3Y 
M1: 7-8 
M2: 10-5 
K: 11-4J 
S: 10-5 
S: 11-4

Edited by Eikokurai
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16 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

He just might. We only have two Ozeki right now and there’s a fair chance of either one or both getting demoted or promoted out of the rank in the next year. Add that both Yokozuna aren’t long for the game and the stars may just be aligning for Shodai to benefit from some leniency. I’ve argued before that sometimes the Kyokai needs to seize an opportunity to promote to Y/O when it comes along or else risk one not coming along again for a while. An 8-7, 11-4, 13-2Y run, preceded by two jun-yusho further down the banzuke (with one 13-2 in the joi) makes a strong case. Heck, he might not even need the yusho with 13-2. His run of form is not that dissimilar to Asanoyama’s actually, albeit he got his hands on the cup.

Shodai

M10: 11-4J 
M4: 13-2J 
S: 8-7
S: 11-4 
S: 8-2*

Asanoyama

M8: 12-3Y 
M1: 7-8 
M2: 10-5 
K: 11-4J 
S: 10-5 
S: 11-4

Asanoyama made it really open and shut with 4 consecutive double-digit performances starting from the joi though. Purists will be wont to niggle at Shodai's 8-7. Also, there's been a surprisingly little amount of chatter about ozeki promotion this basho - perhaps overshadowed by Asanoyama and Terunofuji, I don't know - but maybe the reason no one is saying anything is because it's not by the numbers but by the quality (e.g. Asanoyama's bout with Kakuryu). The key points to watch might not just be the yusho, but the manner in which Shodai claims it. If he absolutely thrashes Asanoyama and Takakeisho en route, I'd say he's a shoo in, yusho or no yusho.

Edited by Seiyashi

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