Kintamayama

September (Aki) Basho- offical thread (yay..)

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6 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

The Geek will be back on day 7 and he faces off against the struggling pixie. Who will have the better outcome?

The real question is whether Kotoshogiku's knee braces will be back!  I thought his appearance in this tournament without them was reckless, and the resulting injury was inevitable.  What was he thinking?  It was almost as if he wanted to create a reason to retire.  

But deciding to forego medical advice and return to tournament competition is not the mindset of someone already set on hanging up his mawashi...

FYI, Enho has beaten Kotoshogiku twice.  I'd say the odds are in his favour.

Edited by Amamaniac

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I've made a lot of "Next Ozeki Shodai" jokes in the years when he struggled. Might that actually be true now?

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48 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

And if the "bar was raised" for Miyabiyama in "his second attempt" - going from M7e to S1w with a random runner-up finish, then what would you call Terunofuji going from M1e to S1e with two consecutive yusho?  I know the rules are rules argument, and I am prepared to accept it.  However, it would scream "Terunofuji was robbed!"

The bar was raised in that he got 34/45 wins across three sanyaku basho and still was denied. As has been pointed out, Terunofuji didn’t fight a joi or sanyaku schedule last time around so the yusho, while a great story, wasn’t that strong a yusho as yusho go. If he is still an Ozeki in all but name, then the schedule he fought at M17 was no test at all for him and shouldn’t be given undue weight. If Hakuho was randomly given a makujiri schedule and cruised to 15-0, it wouldn’t rank as one of his best championships, would it? Obviously Terunofuji isn’t Hakuho; I merely use the extreme to illustrate the point that if a rikishi is below his ‘true‘ rank, a good record at that rank really isn’t much to shout about. 

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13 minutes ago, Sue said:

I've made a lot of "Next Ozeki Shodai" jokes in the years when he struggled. Might that actually be true now?

I hope so. I’m loving the current incarnation of Shodai. 

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3 hours ago, Morty said:

Man Takarafuji is strong. Aoiyama put all of his 200kg weight on him going forward, gave him his strongest shoves, was down low so he had leverage, and Takarafuji just shrugged it off and pushed him backwards. Repeatedly. I'm not sure how he lost that. He may have short(ish) arms but I wouldn't want to arm wrestle him - he'd pull your arm off.

There was an old post from 2016 that said that Takarafuji could benchpress 230kg and deadlift 300kg.

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My turn. The yusho will be a 13 win minimum yusho. Dont know who. If Shoudai gets a 13-2 yusho or a 14-1 playoff loss he will be promoted to Ozeki without question. Takakeishou will tire out in the second half. 11 wins maybe. Terunofuji 12-13. Ounoshou 10 max. Mitakeumi 12-13..Asanoyama 11-12. Kotoshouhou Jun yusho

 

Steak. 

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3 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

The bar was raised in that he got 34/45 wins across three sanyaku basho and still was denied. As has been pointed out, Terunofuji didn’t fight a joi or sanyaku schedule last time around so the yusho, while a great story, wasn’t that strong a yusho as yusho go. If he is still an Ozeki in all but name, then the schedule he fought at M17 was no test at all for him and shouldn’t be given undue weight. If Hakuho was randomly given a makujiri schedule and cruised to 15-0, it wouldn’t rank as one of his best championships, would it? Obviously Terunofuji isn’t Hakuho; I merely use the extreme to illustrate the point that if a rikishi is below his ‘true‘ rank, a good record at that rank really isn’t much to shout about. 

It's interesting you mention the concept of "true" rank, since I've said somewhere else that the banzuke is a very delayed ranking system not necessarily indicative of a rikishi's current ability even excluding injuries. I'm not sure if it helps to include the two further concepts of "sustained" rank and "pinnacle" rank - sustained rank is the rank that best represents your overall fighting ability, while pinnacle rank is the highest possible rank you can reach with a burst of best sumo (which is not necessarily sustainable). The distinction is perhaps best seen in the case of many shin-juryo who subsequently fall back down to makushita. They might have fought well for that one basho in the makushita joi, but their current ability cannot sustain them at their thus-far pinnacle rank of juryo. Enho is a good example here. Clearly as a rikishi's ability improves, their sustained rank can go up as well. Conversely, some rikishi may never be able to reachieve their pinnacle rank because of injuries, like Tochinoshin.

Regarding ozeki promotion, I think there was a discussion here somewhere regarding why the criteria of 33/45 - or consistent good performance - is in place. Clearly they want to know if, as an ozeki, you'll be a credit to the rank and a sustained challenger for titles. For normal would-be ozeki, this is a complete unknown, so the criteria is there as a sort of conditional probability - the argument is that, if you can put up that kind of numbers in sanyaku/joi, you're likely to be an ok ozeki. Of course there have been injury flubs and pinnacle ozeki (the best example of both quite unfortunately combined is Tochinoshin), but the criteria works well to generally select the people who would do well.

But for former ozeki, the conditional probability doesn't work so much because there is former evidence for how that rikishi would perform as ozeki. Clearly for Miyabiyama, his tenure as ozeki was not impressive - no double-digit scores let alone challenges for yusho, lasted less than 2 years, possibly promoted too fast. In fact, his career up to ozeki by the numbers looks almost like Tochinoshin's later career - four makushita and juryo championships in a row, and a relatively fast ascent to ozeki, but no yusho, no excuse of injuries, and no prior makuuchi experience. @Amamaniac argues that Terunofuji's tenure was better. I beg to differ slightly - I agree that Terunofuji had his moments at the rank, but while Terunofuji's peaks are higher (three runner ups and multiple double-digit records), his lows are also lower (one 2-13 howler in particular), so his ozeki variance is a lot larger than Miyabiyama. So it goes both ways. You'd probably agree that Miyabiyama didn't show himself to be a good ozeki at all, but Terunofuji's tenure was a lot memorable for a mixed bag of reasons, and his highs or his lows could both be cited for or against him. The biggest headache of Miyabiyama's very existence is that his precedent says: if you're a former ozeki who fell, we can deny you repromotion even after three objectively good basho entirely in sanyaku. So Terunofuji's proponents in the NSK will have to be able to distinguish that precedent while his opponents will try and maintain that precedent.

The big first question about bar raising, which won't be answered till two basho later and good performances for Terunofuji in the meantime, is whether or not this basho (assuming a double-digit score) will be the start of an ozeki run. On paper, if the NSK/YDC were minded to deny him promotion on the basis of not knowing if he would be a sustained success in the ranks, especially given the circumstances of his last fall, they could strictly argue that being out of sanyaku, this basho shouldn't count, and they should wait one more basho to decide if he is truly worthy of the rank. This would be raising the bar for Terunofuji in the sense that ozeki runs have started from M1 or lower previously (including himself), so why should he not get the benefit of that this time? On the other hand, they could also argue, internally, that Terunofuji is a known quantity at ozeki and if he continues to perform well it shows his injuries are under control and no obstacle to his fighting well. So the real headscratching will start after two basho of good performances where people start to ask, seriously, if this current basho should count for Terunofuji's reascension. Given how unprecedented his case is, it really could go either way; there's plenty of good and not-so-good arguments to be made for and against him.

The second question about bar raising is, three basho later, whether the Miyabiyama precedent will hold against him. I think a yusho by then in sanyaku will distinguish it sufficiently, but the danger of the Miyabiyama precedent is that even a doten may not be enough. But that is getting ahead of ourselves, since it assumes Terunofuji can maintain his form from now till then.

The problem is, I get the feeling Terunofuji is sort of on a ticking clock because his body will only hold up so long under the load of his existing injuries. He's been putting on fantastic sumo for now, but I hope he is promoted sooner rather than later, and I hope his promotion will not be yet another case of pinnacle rank promotion.

Edited by Seiyashi
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On 15/09/2020 at 09:23, Jakusotsu said:

"Two weeks required for recovery" translates to "back in action after four days" in the world of Ozumo.

Nailed it.

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3 hours ago, Sue said:

I've made a lot of "Next Ozeki Shodai" jokes in the years when he struggled. Might that actually be true now?

He certainly looks it now.   I've always thought if he can improve on his tachihai, he can be a consistent sanyuku.  It appears he has improved on his tachihai and more.  This is my subjective observation - he seems to be more aggressive and determined.  

Edited by robnplunder
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An interesting basho so far - perhaps of the kind we can expect with two fading yokozuna. Asanoyama looked very nervous the first couple of days, the weight of expectation is a heavy one. Enho is no longer a mystery and Onosho has bounced back like a rubber ball. Shodai is looking great and Teruno had to get past the 'I've made my comeback now what?' moment.

My heart kind of went out to Ikoi today, he gave absolutely everything in his bout but it simply wasn't enough. The expression on his face was one of frustration and pain, he's a man whose spirit is willing but his body is failing; even Daiamami acknowledged his effort at the end and seemed to ask Ikioi if he was OK.

Lots of little stories being played out. Thoroughly enthralling.

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There is another interesting storyline developing down in Juryo.  ShinJuryo Nishikifuji lost his yusho-race lead today when he lost to Chiyootori.  But in that loss he showed his dedication to the sport.

Both men were in a nage-throw position at the bales.  Both men fell together.  And the result remained close because the new-comer resisted the urge to reach down with his free left hand.  Essentially, he took the impact "on the chin" (i.e., went face down in the corner).  That's what I call commitment!  

 

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8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

It's probably what some people on this thread have earlier guessed - Kotoshogiku will try and save his place in the top division. Sumodb shows the rough line in recent times is 9 losses - any more than that, and it's most likely juryo for him at his rank. If he doesn't save it, I think he will retire; it's probably not really an ultimatum but just a wish to go out fighting.

He is almost certainly safe with 5 wins, I think even 4 may do the job, as Abi is definitely down, Ishiura and Kyokutaisei all but certainly down and things aren't looking rosy for Shohozan which would put him 5th in line to go down. I also reckon there's likely to be someone else in front of him (Shimanoumi?)  for demotion. Depends what happens in juryo of course , but already I can't personally see more than 4 promotion candidates. 

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43 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

ShinJuryo Nishikifuji lost his yusho-race lead today when he lost to Chiyootori.  But in that loss he showed his dedication to the sport.

Thanks for flagging that one up - a great bout.

Juryo has been described of late as mainly 'has beens' and not worth our attention, perhaps that's a bit unfair, after all, many of these guys have been our favourites over the years. It's always interesting to see which mature rikishi can get a second wind and make it back to the top, also to see how the up and coming youngsters deal with the experienced professionals. Hoping to see Ura back very soon too.

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6 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

The bar was raised in that he got 34/45 wins across three sanyaku basho and still was denied. As has been pointed out, Terunofuji didn’t fight a joi or sanyaku schedule last time around so the yusho, while a great story, wasn’t that strong a yusho as yusho go. If he is still an Ozeki in all but name, then the schedule he fought at M17 was no test at all for him and shouldn’t be given undue weight. If Hakuho was randomly given a makujiri schedule and cruised to 15-0, it wouldn’t rank as one of his best championships, would it? Obviously Terunofuji isn’t Hakuho; I merely use the extreme to illustrate the point that if a rikishi is below his ‘true‘ rank, a good record at that rank really isn’t much to shout about. 

I take your point, and based on your previous post, you understand mine.  

Keep in mind that these are strange times "inside the curtain".  The absentee Yokozunas make for a diminishing of the level of competition.  But even with the best wrestlers out of action, the championship is available to all the rest.  

So if Terunofuji does snag two straight yusho, it will speak volumes about his level of sumo vis-a-vis the rest.  After all, he is winning despite his knees!  And yes, his M17 schedule was not exactly junior-Sanyaku-worthy, but he did face the three highest ranked active men on the banzuke in the final days, and still walked away with the championship.  Tokushoryu only faced one Sanyaku opponent in his makujiri championship in January.  And even if Terunofuji's yusho in July isn't exactly the equivalent of a Hakuho-like schedule one, a back-to-back yusho performance will prove that the first yusho was no fluke, and that Terunofuji is dominating the current host of Ozeki hopefuls.

But this is, after all, all conjecture at this point.

Edited by Amamaniac
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Ichinojo, you baffle me.  You're bigger and heavier than your opponent and have him directly in front of you near the edge.  He awaits the inevitable yorikiri and instead you move backward and try for a slapdown.  You lost weight, yes, but you're not Endo.  When victory beckons, don't look for style points!

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Since the beginning of his comeback, Terunofuji has wrestled 86 times.

His record over that span is 74-12, with two lower-level yushos and a Makuuchi Yusho. 

He has been dominating. 

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8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

The big first question about bar raising, which won't be answered till two basho later and good performances for Terunofuji in the meantime, is whether or not this basho (assuming a double-digit score) will be the start of an ozeki run. On paper, if the NSK/YDC were minded to deny him promotion on the basis of not knowing if he would be a sustained success in the ranks, especially given the circumstances of his last fall, they could strictly argue that being out of sanyaku, this basho shouldn't count, and they should wait one more basho to decide if he is truly worthy of the rank. This would be raising the bar for Terunofuji in the sense that ozeki runs have started from M1 or lower previously (including himself), so why should he not get the benefit of that this time? On the other hand, they could also argue, internally, that Terunofuji is a known quantity at ozeki and if he continues to perform well it shows his injuries are under control and no obstacle to his fighting well. So the real headscratching will start after two basho of good performances where people start to ask, seriously, if this current basho should count for Terunofuji's reascension. Given how unprecedented his case is, it really could go either way; there's plenty of good and not-so-good arguments to be made for and against him.

[I could have quoted other sections, too, but I don't like to increase column inches on replies(Bow...)]

My opinion (worth little): Terunofiji's Ozeki run starts now, at M1.  Ex-Ozeki, screaming back to the top, etc. gets him a one-rank non-Sanyaku credit.  If he takes the Tochinoshin path, the knees will tell us whether he is back for good, because now he is consistently working against top-rankers with every reason to test his health.  It would be better if Hak and Kak were present, but that's the breaks.

Since Kotoshogiku, Ozekis have gone Se-Se-Se or Ko-Se-Se to Ozeki with two exceptions: Tochinoshin (M3 Y, Se, Se) and Terunofuji (M2 8-7, Se, Se Y).  Assuming this represents the "Current Era", he starts his Ozeki run now, and if it's a 34 vs 33 vs 32 question at the end, his Yusho at M17 would be a good "character witness" for him.

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Aoiyama’s attempted foot sweep of Takarafuji today looked more like a kick when watching it on tv, but kudos to him for trying something. And kudos to him for winning a match that lasted more than a few seconds. Usually if he doesn’t win right away I expect to see him pushed out of the ring. But he surprised me today and we got an entertaining bout out of it as well. 

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On 17/09/2020 at 18:19, sahaven111 said:

This is a long shot, with 10 days to go you can't really accurately predict the yusho winner, but i say that it will either be a win where someone does better than ever before, or an 11-4 yusho. I would say technically anyone with a 4-1 or better right now could win it, especially if we go the 11-4 route. and out of the 3-2s, Mitakeumi, Endo, Myogiryu, and Kagayaki are too inconsistent. Terunofuji and Takanosho have fought the best of his opposition, so he could win it. and Kiribayama, Wakatakakage and Hoshoryu are much too new to be likely contenders, but you never know, given the recent times (Sadanoyama won a yusho in his 2nd Maegashira Tournament, iirc.) and i wouldn't count Meisei with his fusen win (a win is a win, however, so you never know). Only Asanoyama out of the "More-losses-than-wins group" i think has the ability to win out, or almost do so. On the other hand he hasn't faced his greatest competition yet. A recent trend i've seen around different sites is a "tier list"...

...So here it is:

Tier 1: Takakeisho, Shodai, Onosho
Tier 2: Mitakeumi, Terunofuji, Takayasu, Ichinojo

Tier 3: Asanoyama, Endo, Takanosho, Kiribayama

Tier 4: Takarafuji, Chiyotairyu, Tobizaru, Myogiryu, Kotoshoho

Tier 5: Kagayaki, Meisei, Wakatakakage, Hoshoryu

Mere Fodder: Everyone else except Shohozan

I'm only saying this so i get a "laugh" emoji: Shohozan

 

welcome to the sequel ;-):

Tier 1: Takakeisho, Shodai
Tier 2: Mitakeumi, Terunofuji, Takayasu, Onosho

Tier 3: Asanoyama, Kiribayama, Ichinojo, Chiyotairyu

Tier 4: Tobizaru, Kotoshoho, Takanosho

Tier 5: Kagayaki, Wakatakakage, Endo

Mere Fodder: Everyone else except Okinoumi, Tokushoryu, Enho, Kotoshogiku, Shohozan (They have no chance)

 

 

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5 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

Since the beginning of his comeback, Terunofuji has wrestled 86 times.

His record over that span is 74-12, with two lower-level yushos and a Makuuchi Yusho. 

He has been dominating. 

He has been recovering from his injuries.  In this basho, he looks to be 100% healthy.  When he is, he has the Ozeki qualities.  In that vein, Takayasu appears to be full of his former self as well.

Asanoyama started the basho with a few losses but I think he will get his KK.

I am sticking with Shodai's yusho prediction.

The surprise of the basho is Tobizaru.  

It is safe to say that an M17 ranked rikishi will not take the yusho in this basho.  

Enho will get an easy win over the injured Kotoshogiku.  But the little dude's MK is certain.  It seems all his opponents are standing ground and manhandling Enho before he can do his tricks.  

 

Edited by robnplunder

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The impressive 21-year-old Kotoshoho is now 4-0 against Hoshoryu and goes to 6-1.  The next Japanese Yokozuna hope is in the yusho race while his Mongolian counterpart is fighting for KK.  There is much talk about Hoshoryu and his pedigree but I think he may just turn out to be a little stronger version of Chiyoshoma.  He just does not seem to have the strength to jump to the next level.  Perhaps, increasing his Chanko intake and hitting the weights more will help (Showingoff...).

Meanwhile, Tobizaru keeps on winning.  He, too, goes to 6-1.  

Enho can't even beat one-legged Kotoshogiku?  Hmm.  

Edited by robnplunder

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24 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

The impressive 21-year-old Kotoshoho is now 4-0 against Hoshoryu and goes to 6-1.  The next Japanese Yokozuna hope is in the yusho race while his Mongolian counterpart is fighting for KK.  There is much talk about Hoshoryu and his pedigree but I think he may just turn out to be a little stronger version of Chiyoshoma.  He just does not seem to have the strength to jump to the next level.  Perhaps, increasing his Chanko intake and hitting the weights more will help (Showingoff...).

Meanwhile, Tobizaru keeps on winning.  He, too, goes to 6-1.  

Enho can't even beat one-legged Kotoshogiku?  Hmm.  

Enho weighs about the same as Kotoshogiku's leg right now, so it's about even.

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Takanosho is now 7-5  "career" against the 3 sekiwake (Mitakeumi, Daieisho, Shodai).  He may join the sanyuku rank as soon as the next basho.

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