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Promotion/Demotion/Yusho Discussion July 2020

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, ryafuji said:

So Ikioi, Chiyomaru, Kotonowaka and Kotoyuki are down by the numbers. (Nishikigi survives because he's Nishikigi.) Meisei, Tobizaru and Kyokutaisei are relatively easy, but who gets the fourth? Hoshoryu? 

Has to be between Hoshoryu and Ichinojo. But I guess Ichi's bout against Shohozan was his test and because he lost I think Hoshoryu gets the nod over him now.

Edited by Hakuryuho

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If one of Ikioi and Nishikigi goes down, it should be Nishikigi.

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Posted (edited)

Day 15 (results, text-only results)

13-2 M17e Terunofuji

12-3 Ow Asanoyama

Terunofuji overpowered Mitakeumi in short order and that was that. He's the second M17 yusho winner this year, but I find it a bit more palatable than Tokushoryu's because he's an ex-Ozeki and performed some very good yotsu sumo. Personally, I wish they'd push lower ranked Maegashira contenders to tougher opponents before Day 13 but you can only fight the people they give you to fight.

Asanoyama won his bout afterwards to claim a 12-3 Jun-Yusho. I don't think that'll count towards any sort of tsuna-run especially given that he's just a brand new Ozeki. Disappointment over the way the tournament ended after his great start notwithstanding, he had a pretty good shin-Ozeki basho being one of only 14 rikishi to get at least 12 wins on their Ozeki debut.

Asanoyama was also the only one of the Yokkozuna and Ozeki group to last all 15 days, which I imagine is a bit of a disappointment for the Kyokai. Hakuho started well but got injured and had to pull out once he started facing tougher competition. Kakuryu suffered an injury in an embarrassing opening Day loss and Takakeisho had knee issues, did bad looking sumo and pulled out as soon as he cleared kadoban.

A great showing from the Sekiwake and Komusubi group with only Okinoumi missing out on double-digit wins.

The final Maegashira standings have Endo ahead of Takanosho ahead of Hokutofuji for promotion to Komusubi by the numbers but it's essentially academic anyway given that there are no ordinary open slots - except for these following questions

1) Will Shodai be promoted to Ozeki? No. There has been no talk about that. His first basho was only at M4 and he didn't win the yusho in it. He'll have to put up good numbers next time, and I suspect the time after that. A Shodai promotion would of course mean that Daieisho would get promoted to Sekiwake and opening up that Komusubi slot for Endo. However, the next question is

2) Will Daieisho get promoted anyway? He has 11 wins which is usually enough to force a promotion, but as @Gurowake says he had two fusen wins and didn't face Mitakeumi. If he did get promoted then Endo moves up to Komusubi. I don't know the answer to that question. I don't think not facing Mitakeumi would be an issue, but I;m not sure about the fusen wins.

3)Will Endo get promoted anyway? If Daieisho doesn't move up, what happens to Endo? We have a precedence for a 9-6 M1e forcing a promotion, but not for an 8-7. I don't know the answer to that one either.

     10-3-2 Hakuho        Y    Kakuryu            0-2-13
     8-4-3 Takakeisho   O    Asanoyama     12-3
     11-4  Shodai           S    Mitakeumi       11-4
     11-4  Daieisho         K    Okinoumi        9-6

     8-7  Endo               M1   
     8-7  Takanosho     M2   
                                     M3   
                                     M4 
                                     M5   Hokutofuji       9-6
 

 

Tobizaru joined Meisei and Kyokutaisei with promotable records and they should replace Kotoyuki, Chiyomaru and Kotonowaka. Shohozan beat Ichinojo in the exchange matchup so he is safe and I don't see a promotion for Ichinojo. Nishikigi lost to give him a demotable record but Ikioi won placing both of them on the bubble. Hoshoryu won, but doesn't have a promotable record, but it wouldn't be out of order to promote him. They don't usually overpromote people, but if they did I'd expect Ikioi to be safe as his rank-record combination is better than Nishikigi's. Nishikigi's 6-9 isn't a guaranteed demotion from the second rank above when there are no suitable promotees either. I've put them as  ? to mark this uncertainty. Of course, the could choose to demote Abi as a punishment as well.

 (?) 3-4-8 Abi              M5
                                     ...
                                     M9 Ikioi                3-12 (~)
                                     M10
                                    M11 
                                    M12 Shohozan     5-10 (o)
                                   M13 Kotonowaka 4-6-5 (x)
                                    M14
                                   M15 Chiyomaru     4-11 (x)
(?) 6-9 Nishikigi       M16
                                   M17 Kotoyuki        6-8-1 (x)
       
(o)  10-5  Meisei                 J1   
(o)  9-6  Tobizaru              J2   
                                            J3   
(x)  7-8  Daiamami           J4   
(o)  10-5  Kyokutaisei       J5   Ichinojo    9-6  (~)
(?)  10-5  Hoshoryu           J6
                                             J7  
                                             J8   
                        

In the crossover bout Kitaharima beat Takagenji to secure his own return to Juryo and send Takagenji down. Jokoryu did win but so did Daishoho, so Jokoryu will miss out. The situation here is quite clear, Chiyonokuni takes advantage of Tochiozan's intai, and Oki, Nishikifuji and Kitaharima secured their own promotions at the expense of their opponents. 

 

                                       J2   Tochiozan       Intai 
                                        ....

(o)  6-9  Daishoho       J10  Asabenkei 3-12 (x)
                                      J11  
                                     J12  
(x)  6-9  Takagenji     J13   
(x)  6-9  Chiyonoumi    J14 

                                     Ms1  
                                     Ms2  Oki               5-2 (o)
 (o)5-2  Nishikifuji    Ms3  Kitaharima    5-2 (o)
     4-3  Sakigake     Ms4  Jokoryu         5-2  
     4-3  Naya            Ms5
                              ....
                                 Ms12 Chiyonokuni 7-0 (o)


Explanation of symbols used:

numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted)
o = favourable outcome achieved
x = favourable outcome definitely missed
~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck.

Edited by Sakura
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2 minutes ago, Sakura said:

2) Will Daieisho get promoted anyway? He has 11 wins which is usually enough to force a promotion, but as @Gurowake says he had two fusen losses and didn't face Mitakeumi. If he did get promoted then Endo moves up to Komusubi. I don't know the answer to that question. 

 

Two fusen wins.  I didn't mean for my comment to suggest that his 11 wins wasn't going to be good enough.  I mean, I guess they might not, but generally for banzuke purposes they only look at the results.  Quality of wins might matter for Ozeki and Yokozuna promotion, but I don't think it'll stop 11-4 K -> S.

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1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

Two fusen wins.  I didn't mean for my comment to suggest that his 11 wins wasn't going to be good enough.  I mean, I guess they might not, but generally for banzuke purposes they only look at the results.  Quality of wins might matter for Ozeki and Yokozuna promotion, but I don't think it'll stop 11-4 K -> S.

Thanks for the correction. I agree that his record is unlikely to mean much in any Ozeki run. 

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Juryo yusho race through Day 15:

10-5 J1e Meisei, J5e Kyokutaisei, J6e HoshoryuJ12w Chiyonoo, J13w Akua, J14w Mitoryu

Kyokutaisei and Mitoryu both lost their regulation bouts so we were treated to a playoff. Most of the 9-5 rikishi going in to the day won, with the exception of Wakamotoharu and Ichinojo. We ended up with a 6 rikishi playoff, 3 from Tatsunami-beya (Meisei, Hoshoryu and Akua). The playoff started with a straight-elimination going into a 3-man tournament where the first rikishi to win two in a row gets the yusho.

Interestingly, none of the Tatsunami rikishi were paired up in the first round and all three won making for an exciting playoff. It was one of the few pieces of live sumo I managed to watch and it was clear that the rikishi train with each other a lot as Meisei and Hoshoryu seemed to know each other's strengths and weaknesses very well. Meisei won that match and that seemed to be the decisive moment as Akua provided not much of a challenge. Meisei wins the yusho and will be back in Makuuchi next time.

The one last yusho we haven't covered is Sandanme. Former Sandanme-tsukedashi starter Fukai had a decisive victory over Taiho-grandson Mudoho.

Thank you for putting up with me. I've been doing this on the fly during the short amount of time I get access to the computer each day, and as a result there have been a few errors and things, but I hope it has been ok. Hopefully, Asashosakari will be back next time with regular coverage.

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2 hours ago, Sakura said:

Asanoyama won his bout afterwards to claim a 12-3 Jun-Yusho. I don't think that'll count towards any sort of tsuna-run especially given that he's just a brand new Ozeki. Disappointment over the way the tournament ended after his great start notwithstanding, he had a pretty good shin-Ozeki basho being one of only 14 rikishi to get at least 12 wins on their Ozeki debut.

Technically, any runner-up result of an ozeki starts a tsuna-run - yusho equivalent as a rule is just an urban myth, it only is decisive for the success of the run. Consequently chief shimpan Isegahama had this to say about it: "First of all he has to get the yusho. Talk starts then. Saying 'if he gets the yusho next time' is also premature." - and he praises the result of Asanoyama in his first ozeki basho, with some critical points of course.

https://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2020/08/02/kiji/20200802s00005000447000c.html

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1 hour ago, Sakura said:

Thank you for putting up with me. I've been doing this on the fly during the short amount of time I get access to the computer each day, and as a result there have been a few errors and things, but I hope it has been ok. Hopefully, Asashosakari will be back next time with regular coverage.

Thank you, Sakura.  While we miss Asashosakari's well of knowledge and analysis, your impromptu work as understudy has been very welcome.  

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1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

Technically, any runner-up result of an ozeki starts a tsuna-run - yusho equivalent as a rule is just an urban myth, it only is decisive for the success of the run. Consequently chief shimpan Isegahama had this to say about it: "First of all he has to get the yusho. Talk starts then. Saying 'if he gets the yusho next time' is also premature." - and he praises the result of Asanoyama in his first ozeki basho, with some critical points of course.

https://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2020/08/02/kiji/20200802s00005000447000c.html

If he gets a 13-wins non yusho in Sept and a yusho in Nov, this basho's 12-wins junyusho will be a plus when the NSK considers whether to promote him.

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Takagenji going from makuuchi to Makushita with 6 straight makekoshis. He looked so strong the first few days in his only makuuchi tournament then it went all downhill. 

Meanwhile Hoshoryu will probably make his debut in the highest division. From ms5 to makuuchi in 5 tournaments having only 7 wins more than losses. Maybe you can call that 'banzukeluck'. Anyway i'm looking forward to his throws in makuuchi!

 

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1 hour ago, Gooner said:

Takagenji going from makuuchi to Makushita with 6 straight makekoshis. He looked so strong the first few days in his only makuuchi tournament then it went all downhill. 

 

Never been the same since his twin brother was kicked out. I'm sure that can't be coincidental. 

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If Abi is forced to retire, as is being reported, does the additional open Juryo slot go to Kitaharima (Ms3w 5-2) over Sakigake (Ms3e 4-3)? And who goes up from Juryo to Makuuchi?

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6 minutes ago, Sue said:

If Abi is forced to retire, as is being reported, does the additional open Juryo slot go to Kitaharima (Ms3w 5-2) over Sakigake (Ms3e 4-3)? And who goes up from Juryo to Makuuchi?

Ichinojo would accompany Meisei, Tobizaru, Kyokutaisei and Hoshoryu up to Makuuchi.

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Kitaharima was already going up; should now be joined by Jokoryu. And it's either Ichinojo promoted or Nishikigi survives.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Hakuryuho said:

Ichinojo would accompany Meisei, Tobizaru, Kyokutaisei and Hoshoryu up to Makuuchi.

I think they would spare Ikioi and Nishikigi rather than overpromote Ichinojō.

Edited by ryafuji

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If the official retirement comes after the banzuke committee meets, then there will be no extra slots

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Juryo promotions were announced and it's 4 up.....Oki, Nishikifuji, Kitaharima, and Chiyonokuni

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Abi got one basho so no extra slot right now. 

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