Sakura

Promotion/Demotion/Yusho Discussion July 2020

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I'd argue Endo and Takanosho are now both ahead of Hokutofuji in the promotion queue, with one less win from 4 and 3 ranks higher, respectively.

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May be academic if Okinoumi wins one more, especially with his next bout against a not very fiery Enho.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Kashunowaka said:

It's possible that we will get a situation where everyone in sanyaku stays within their rank and no maegashira is promoted to sanyaku. As far as I could find, this has happened three times in the modern era, the last time being Natsu 1988.

Even better to grasp with this click.

Edit: But it's far from the latest instance, as you can see here. (scroll down)

Edited by Jakusotsu

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10 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Even better to grasp with this click.

Edit: But it's far from the latest instance, as you can see here. (scroll down)

I figured someone would come up with that query. :-)  Note: "where everyone in sanyaku stays within their rank"!

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7 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

Note: "where everyone in sanyaku stays within their rank"!

Nitpicker! :-P

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Edit: But it's far from the latest instance, as you can see here. (scroll down)

Technically, that's where there were no maegashira promotions; Mitakeumi and Kotoshogiku exchanged lower sanyaku rankings and Takayasu was promoted to ozeki in January 2017.

Hatsu 1998 is the last true latest instance, according to that bout query.

Edited by Seiyashi
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Reonito said:

I'd argue Endo and Takanosho are now both ahead of Hokutofuji in the promotion queue, with one less win from 4 and 3 ranks higher, respectively.

Certainly reasonable. I just have a personal dislike for records the wrong side of the W-L divide.

Their record/rank combinations are certainly better at this stage. Also, if they pull of 2 more wins are probably more promotable since they are proper joi members (though Hokutofuji's mini-tour of the Sanyaku might count for more than his rank otherwise might). An 8-7 Endo would probably get the nod over a 9-6 Takanosho due to Endo being the top ranked Maegashira and probably over a 10-5 Hokutofuji.

 

Edited by Sakura
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Juryo yusho race through Day 12:

9-3 J14w Mitoryu

8-4 J1e Meisei, J5e Kyokutaisei, J6e Hoshoryu, J8e Wakamotoharu, J12w Chiyonoo, J13w Akua

7-5 J2e TobizaruJ5w Ichinojo,

Mitoryu maintains has one win lead over a large chasing pack, all of whom (except for Ichinojo) won on Day 12. The two behind group was thinned out considerably. There are still 9 rikishi within 2 wins though. Mitoryu obviously has the advantage due to his record, but I wouldn't like to bet on him at this stage on being the eventual Juryo winner.

The Day 13 match-ups see some bouts between contenders, but then we also have some large W-L record mismatches as well. Here are all the leaders buts for Day 13:

9-3 Mitoryu vs Kyokutaisei  8-4

8-4 Meisei vs Daishoho 4-8
8-4 Hoshoryu vs Takagenji 6-6
8-4 Wakamotoharu vs Akua 8-4
8-4 Chiyonoo vs Ichinojo 7-5

7-5 Tobizaru vs Kizakiumi 5-7

Kyokutaisei can make the leaderboard very crowded by beating Mitoryu , but even if Mitoryu wins he'll still only be one win ahead thanks to the Wakamotoharu - Akua match-up.


Lower division yusho races:

Obviously no yusho action going on on Day 12, but the pairings are made down the banzuke as follows

6-0 Ms12w Chiyonokuni (Kokonoe)
6-0 Ms59w Tochiseiryu (Kasugano)


6-0 Sd41e Nakashima (Musashigawa)
6-0 Sd67e Fukai (Takasago)
6-0 Sd84w Mudoho (Otake)


6-0 Jd28e Daihisho (Oitezake)
6-0 Jd75w Nabatame (Futagoyama)
6-0 Jd84e Takeoka (Oguruma)

The Mudoho-Daihisho bout will determine whether or not there is a playoff in Sandanme or Jonidan.
 

6-0 Jk18e Hokuseiho (Miyagino)

Hokuseiho has been paired up with low ranking 5-1 Jonidan Miyabi. If he loses then he'll end up in a playoff with all the other 1 loss Jonokuchi rikishi.

The matchups for them are as follows

Jk18w Hagiwara vs JK14w Shishi
JK27e Tamanohoshi vs Jk20w Hozan
JK23e Makio (4-2) vs Jk34e Ieshima

There is also Jk11e Chiyotaiho with a 5-1 record, but he doesn't have a day 13 bout. This one is puzzling. Unless I missed a kyujo announcement for him I don't see why he couldn't have been paired up with Ieshima.

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With Chiyonokuni 7-0 and Oki 5-2, I think both of them probably will be promoted to Juryo

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3 minutes ago, code_number3 said:

With Chiyonokuni 7-0 and Oki 5-2, I think both of them probably will be promoted to Juryo

Yes. Oki was essentially in a divisional exchange with Asabenkei.

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Posted (edited)

Day 13 (results, text-only results)

12-1 M17e Terunofuji

11-2 Ow Asanoyama

10-3 Ye HakuhoSe Shodai, Sw Mitakeumi,

Hakuho did indeed pull out of the tournament and give Shodai the free win. Mitakeumi also won and now both Sekiwake find themselves with double digits, which is actually what they should be aiming for given the small sanyaku size. In the important bout of the day Terunofuji overcame Asanoyama and is now the clear favourite to take the yusho. His next opponent is Shodai. Probably the biggest test they could give him, but I will be surprised if he loses. Asanoyama takes on Terutsuyoshi in an effort to make Day 15 interesting.

The two Sekiwake can still claim the Yusho but it'll probably take both of them to upset Terunofuji and Shodai to beat Asanoyama on Day 15.

Okinoumi managed to get his kachi-koshi as a Sanyaku wrestler for the first time so he'll stay as a Komusubi. Daieisho can still get to the 11 win mark so he may get promoted to Sekiwake, but the field of candidates for that promotion slot (should it occur) now has narrowed to Endo, Takanosho and Hokutofuji. There remains the interesting question as to what would happen if Daieisho doesn't get the numbers and Endo manages an 8-7 at the top of maegashira.

     10-3 Hakuho        Y    Kakuryu            0-2-11
     8-4-1Takakeisho   O    Asanoyama     11-2
     10-3  Shodai           S    Mitakeumi       10-3
     9-4  Daieisho         K    Okinoumi        8-5

     6-7  Endo               M1   
     7-6  Takanosho     M2   
                                     M3   
                                     M4   Aoiyama          5-8 (x)
                                     M5   Hokutofuji       8-5
 (x)5-8  Enho               M6   Ryuden             6-7 (x)
  (x)7-6  Terutsuyoshi M7 Tokushoryu        7-6 (x)
 (x)4-8 Ishiura             M8   Chiyotairyu      5-8 (x)
  (x)9-4  Tamawashi    M9
                                     M10   Myogiryu        9-4 (x)
                                     M11 Tochinoshin     8-5 (x)

 

The most important bout in the demotion zone saw Shimanoumi beating Kotoyuki to reach safety and make Kotoyuki now need to win the last two to be ensured of safety himself. Kotoyuki was hobbling a bit after the bout so we'll see what shape he's in going forward. Nishikigi now only needs one more after defeating Kaisei and Shohozan saved himself from a demotable record by henkaing hapless Onosho. Ikioi lost again and is looking like he might pull a repeat of Haru 2019 where ranked at M9w he went 2-13 and was demoted. Chiyomaru succumbed once again and should now be headed down to Juryo. Finally Kotonowaka makes an appearance on the Day 14 schedule in order to save his rank. 

The most important bout down here is Kotoyuki - Shohozan with the loser having a demotable record.

No miraculous 8-7 promotion from J4 for Hidenoumi and it's also looking like there won't be much in the way of banzuke luck promotions (at the moment). Kyokutaisei only needs one more, and Tobizaru, Ichinojo and Hoshoryu could get promotable records by winning out.

 (?) 3-4-6 Abi              M5
                                     ...
                                     M9 Ikioi                2-11 (2)
                                     M10
(o) 5-8 Shimanoumi M11 
                                    M12 Shohozan     3-10 (2)
                                   M13 Kotonowaka 4-4-5 (2)
                                    M14
                                   M15 Chiyomaru     3-10 (x)
(1) 6-7 Nishikigi       M16
                                   M17 Kotoyuki        6-7 (2)
       
(o)  9-4  Meisei                 J1   
(2)  7-6  Tobizaru              J2   
                                            J3   Kyokushuho      6-7  (~)
(~)  6-7  Daiamami           J4   Hidenoumi    5-8  (x)
(1)  9-4  Kyokutaisei         J5   Ichinojo    8-5  (2)
(2)  9-4  Hoshoryu             J6
                                             J7  
(~)  9-4  Wakamotoharu   J8   
                        

J11 pair Fujiazuma and Kizakiumi are now safe, but it was losses all round for everyone else. This was a particular problem for Asabenkei who will now be demoted in favour of the man who beat him - Oki. Oki is 24 years old and will make his seitori appearance for the first time.

The other Makushitan to get promoted on Day 13 was Chiyonokuni who picked up win 7 and the yusho. He's been away from the sekitori ranks for 8 basho and this is the second time he's had to make his way back up after an injury. 

Nishikifuji does indeed get a crossover match. He could secure his own promotion by beating Chiyonoumi and sending the Kokonoe man down in the process. Kitaharima and Jokoryu wait until Day 15 for their final bouts.

                                       J2   Tochiozan       Intai 
                                       J9
(2)  4-9  Daishoho       J10  Asabenkei   3-10  (x)
(o)  6-7  Fujiazuma     J11  Kizakiumi    6-7  (o)
(1)  6-7  Midorifuji      J12  
(1)  6-7  Takagenji     J13   
(2)  6-7  Chiyonoumi    J14 

                                     Ms1  
                                     Ms2  Oki               5-2 (o)
     4-2  Nishikifuji    Ms3  Kitaharima    4-2
     3-3  Sakigake     Ms4  Jokoryu         4-2  
     4-3  Naya            Ms5
                              ....
                                 Ms12 Chiyonokuni 7-0 (o)


Explanation of symbols used:

numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted)
o = favourable outcome achieved
x = favourable outcome definitely missed
~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck.

Edited by Sakura
Tobizaru
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Posted (edited)

Juryo yusho race through Day 13:

9-4 J1e Meisei, J5e Kyokutaisei, J6e Hoshoryu, J8e Wakamotoharu, J14w Mitoryu

8-5 J5w Ichinojo, J12w Chiyonoo, J13w Akua

Mitoryu's loss brought the leading group to a size of five. With Meisei - Mitoryu & Kyokutaisei - Wakamotoharu scheduled for Day 14, the Juryo yusho winner will have at least 10 wins ruling out anyone who has yet to secure their kachi-koshi.

9-4 Meisei vs Mitoryu  9-4
9-4 Kyokutaisei vs Wakamotoharu 9-4
9-4 Hoshoryu vs Daishoho 4-9

8-5 Ichinojo vs Takagenji 6-7
8-5 Chiyonoo vs Hidenoumi 5-8
8-5 Akua vs Chiyootiri 7-6


Lower division yusho races:

7-0 Ms12w Chiyonokuni (Kokonoe)
6-1 Ms59w Tochiseiryu (Kasugano)


6-1 Sd41e Nakashima (Musashigawa)
7-0 Sd67e Fukai (Takasago)
7-0 Sd84w Mudoho (Otake)


6-1 Jd28e Daihisho (Oitezake)
6-1 Jd75w Nabatame (Futagoyama)
7-0 Jd84e Takeoka (Oguruma)

7-0 Jk18e Hokuseiho (Miyagino)

As mentioned before Chiyonokuni clinched the Makushita yusho. His last Makushita yusho was back in September where he managed to beat Terunofuji.... It's not surprising that Fukai and Mudoho both won and they'll contest the Sandanme playoff on Day 15. 18 year old Takeoka won the Jonidan yusho and Hakuho deshi Hokuseiho made Jonokuchi less complicated by taking the yusho there.

Still no sign of Chiyotaiho though.

Edited by Sakura
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Endo may well get stuck at M1 if Daieisho and Okinoumi don't go anywhere. Hokutofuji also got stuck at M1 for at least one basho last year before the shimpan department went and created a bumper crop of komusubi. 8-7 is definitely not strong enough to force a promotion in the ordinary course of things.

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13 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Endo may well get stuck at M1 if Daieisho and Okinoumi don't go anywhere. Hokutofuji also got stuck at M1 for at least one basho last year before the shimpan department went and created a bumper crop of komusubi. 8-7 is definitely not strong enough to force a promotion in the ordinary course of things.

Yet the last time a M1-EAST got stuck was more than 50 years ago.

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Yet the last time a M1-EAST got stuck was more than 50 years ago.

First, I stand corrected on my original point - I went back and looked at the banzukes for last year and didn't see any 8-7 M1e getting stuck. Memory let me down somewhere.

Second, this is of course academic if Endo fails to secure his KK. 

Third, if Endo has his KK and Daieisho gets only 10, then we are in a situation where the entire sanyaku is not going anywhere and where an M1e is getting stuck. Since 1969, the last time an M1e has been stuck with 8-7 (leapfrogged to the one open komusubi slot in that case by a M5 junyusho-doten), there have been only 8 basho where no sanyaku have been demoted to maegashira. Only 2 of those 8 basho have had no sanyaku movement (Hatsu 1998 and Natsu 1988), and the joi in those two basho took a collective beating, with none of them KK. So if Endo gets KK and Daieisho doesn't force a third sekiwake slot with 11, you could argue that the combination of circumstances is quite unusual (no sanyaku movement and a joi KK), and it would be reasonable to keep Endo jammed at M1e.

On the subject of Daieisho, there were two cases where an 11-4 at komusubi still resulted in forcing a promotion to haridashi/third sekiwake even with a fusensho - Ozutsu in Haru 1981 and Wakamisugi in Kyushu 1974. Dated examples, to be sure, but Daieisho's got some hope if he can win out.

To address the elephant in the room, it is of course possible that with two KK in the joi - Endo and Takanosho - we may again get 4 komusubi. But given the horrible results of the rest of the joi, that would probably result in overpromotions across the rest of the board. Unless Terunofuji wins out here with a 14-1 and gets jumped straight to komusubi as well, in which case we may well see Daieisho K1e, Okinoumi K1w, Terunofuji K2e, Endo K2w and Takanosho M1e. But I don't think this is at all likely, unless the shimpan have a collective fit of madness.

Edited by Seiyashi

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Posted (edited)

Day 14 (results, text-only results)

12-2 M17e Terunofuji

11-3 Ow AsanoyamaSe Shodai, Sw Mitakeumi,

Shodai pulled off the upset (a strange thing to write about a Sekiwake over an M17) to make the race interesting. Asanoyama threw the gift away by succumbing to a Terutsuyoshi ashitori. I don't know if I'm more upset with Terutsuyoshi for doing it or Asanoyama for not predicting it. If Terunofuji wins his scheduled bout against Mitakeumi then the yusho is his. If not he'll end up in a 3-way playoff with Mitakeumi and the winner of the Shodai-Asanoyama bout.

With Mitakeumi facing Terunofuji, Daieisho instead gets 10-win Myogiryu as an opponent. Okinoumi also goes for 10 wins against Tamawashi. The ozeki question for Shodai is an interesting one. Last basho was a mere 8-7 but before that it was a 13-2J from M4. I'm of the opinion that the previous two basho won't count and he's not on a run, but stranger things have happened. 

Hokutofuji can't pass Takanosho for a slot now, but 7-7 Endo might still claim any theoretical openings. We still have to see if Daieisho gets promoted to Sekiwake and whether or not Endo can win on Day 15 (he's up against 7-7 Tokushoryu). The interesting question is of course no Sekiwake promotion for Daieisho and Endo on 8-7. We still have a day left to go, however, so I'll save any further speculation on that point until then.

     10-3-1 Hakuho        Y    Kakuryu            0-2-12
     8-4-2 Takakeisho   O    Asanoyama     11-3
     11-3  Shodai           S    Mitakeumi       11-3
     10-4  Daieisho         K    Okinoumi        9-5

     7-7  Endo               M1   
     8-6  Takanosho     M2   
                                     M3   
                                     M4 
                                     M5   Hokutofuji       8-6
 

 

Kotoyuki was indeed too injured to participate on Day 14, and with no appearance on Day 15 he'll be demoted. Ikioi lost to previously winless Onosho so he is now demotable. So is  Kotonowaka, who's comeback attempt almost worked against Kagayaki. Nishikigi found that Takayasu was still motivated to win, so Shohozan was the only one to improve his status thanks to the freebie of Kotoyuki's withdrawal.

Kyokutaisei  won today to secure a promotion spot, as did Ichinojo and Tobizaru who only need one more. Tobizaru might be good anyway from M2. Hoshoryu lost and requires a bit of luck. The usual picture emerges with more available demotees than promotees at the moment, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Nishikigi survive with a 6-9 say. 

They have paired up Shohozan and Ichinojo in a clear winner gets to be in Makuuchi bout. Shohozan might still survive even if he loses. He'll be lower in the demotion queue than Kotoyuki and Chiyomaru and also lower than Kotonowaka and Nishikigi if they lose.

 (?) 3-4-6 Abi              M5
                                     ...
                                     M9 Ikioi                2-12 (~)
                                     M10
                                    M11 
                                    M12 Shohozan     4-10 (1)
                                   M13 Kotonowaka 4-4-5 (~)
                                    M14
                                   M15 Chiyomaru     4-10 (x)
(1) 6-8 Nishikigi       M16
                                   M17 Kotoyuki        6-7 (x)
       
(o)  9-5  Meisei                 J1   
(1)  8-6  Tobizaru              J2   
                                            J3   Kyokushuho      6-8  (x)
(~)  7-7  Daiamami           J4   
(o)  10-4  Kyokutaisei       J5   Ichinojo    9-5  (1)
(~)  9-5  Hoshoryu             J6
                                             J7  
(x)  9-5  Wakamotoharu   J8   
                        

Midorifuji was victorious and is now safe and will be joined in Juryo by stablemate and same-basho starter Nishikifuji who condemned Chiyonoumi to demotion. Daishoho and Takagenji both need one more to stay safe.

Nishikifuji does indeed get a crossover match. He could secure his own promotion by beating Chiyonoumi and sending the Kokonoe man down in the process. Kitaharima and Jokoryu wait until Day 15 for their final bouts. Takagenji gets Kitaharima in the last crossover bout. Jokoryu goes against fellow Makushitan Ichiki and I guess will have to win and hope Daishoho loses. I suspect if Midorifuji had lost we could have seen a Midorifuji-Jokoryu matchup. As it is we have Asabenkei - Yago, which is interesting only in that it gives Yago an 8th bout. 

                                       J2   Tochiozan       Intai 
                                        ....

(1)  5-9  Daishoho       J10  Asabenkei  3-11 (x)
                                      J11  
(o)  7-7  Midorifuji      J12  
(1)  6-8  Takagenji     J13   
(x)  6-8  Chiyonoumi    J14 

                                     Ms1  
                                     Ms2  Oki               5-2 (o)
 (o)5-2  Nishikifuji    Ms3  Kitaharima    4-2
     4-3  Sakigake     Ms4  Jokoryu         4-2  
     4-3  Naya            Ms5
                              ....
                                 Ms12 Chiyonokuni 7-0 (o)


Explanation of symbols used:

numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted)
o = favourable outcome achieved
x = favourable outcome definitely missed
~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck.

Edited by Sakura
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Posted (edited)

Juryo yusho race through Day 14:

10-4 J5e KyokutaiseiJ14w Mitoryu

9-5 J1e Meisei, J5w Ichinojo, J6e Hoshoryu, J8e WakamotoharuJ12w Chiyonoo, J13w Akua

Kyokutaisei and Mitoryu won their respective bouts but they've already faced off so instead we have the following matchups:

10-4 Kyokutaisei vs Daishomaru 7-7
10-4 Mitoryu vs Hoshoryu 9-5

9-5 Meisei vs Chiyootori 7-7
9-5 Wakamotoharu vs Daishoho 5-9
9-5 Chiyonoo vs Hakuyozan 5-9
9-5 Akua vs Hidenoumi 5-9

As well as the aforementioned Ichinojo - Shohozan bout. This means we could end up with anything from a single 11-4 winner to an 8-man playoff.

Edited by Sakura
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1 hour ago, Sakura said:

so it wouldn't surprise me to see Nishikigi survive with a 6-9 say

That would be extremely rare.

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6 minutes ago, Reonito said:

That would be extremely rare.

You missed the joke about Nishikigi's fortunate demotion record:-)

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Nishikigi has ridiculously good banzuke luck, having survived in makuuchi with 6 straight MK at one point. It's a question of where they draw the promotion line for Juryo. J8/9 seems to be the lowest promotable record to makuuchi with 10 wins; with something like 6 possible promotees depending on tomorrow's bouts, and with him practically second or third in line for demotion, he will have to be very lucky again to stay in makuuchi.

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3 hours ago, Sakura said:

Juryo yusho race through Day 14:

10-4 J5e KyokutaiseiJ14w Mitoryu

 

Glad to see Mitoizumi's deshi is making progress. I'm so sorry if this has been said before, but The Beatles predicted this sekitori's coming many decades ago: "with love from Mitoryu"...

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Reonito said:

That would be extremely rare.

That query presumably encompasses a lot of times that M16 was the lowest rank in Makuuchi, making demotion much more likely.  A 6-9 at the second-lowest rank is perfectly reasonable to keep if there are no promotion candidates.  Nishikigi has already gotten more lucky than surviving with such a record.  While it's something of a joke about Nishikigi as has been noted, it's a real possibility given the apparent lack of people to take the place of those that "must" be demoted.  I see a very strong possibility for Abi, and Sakura notes it as well, to be punished with demotion (even though he really "shouldn't" be) should there be a reasonable replacement for him, allowing others to get lucky as there won't be additional reasonable replacements for them.

Edited by Gurowake

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4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Nishikigi has ridiculously good banzuke luck, having survived in makuuchi with 6 straight MK at one point. It's a question of where they draw the promotion line for Juryo. J8/9 seems to be the lowest promotable record to makuuchi with 10 wins; with something like 6 possible promotees depending on tomorrow's bouts, and with him practically second or third in line for demotion, he will have to be very lucky again to stay in makuuchi.

The Nishikigi example I just linked shows they really do not want to severely overpromote people from Juryo, in particular 8-7 J5 or 10-5 J8.  At least back then a few years ago.  Bump the latter up one rank and they're only one win short, so it's more reasonable, and is the basis of the ~ mark in Juryo.

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That's a fair point; in only two of the last 10 instances did the banzuke go below M16, and both of those entailed demotion of M16w with M17e the lowest rank.

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So Ikioi, Chiyomaru, Kotonowaka and Kotoyuki are down by the numbers. (Nishikigi survives because he's Nishikigi.) Meisei, Tobizaru and Kyokutaisei are relatively easy, but who gets the fourth? Hoshoryu? 

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