Sakura

Promotion/Demotion/Yusho Discussion July 2020

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Posted (edited)

I'm no @Asashosakari, but since he is absent this basho I thought I'd try to provide some of the analysis. I won't be as good, but it'll be better than nothing. I'll try to follow his format as much as possible (because it's a great format).

I'll edit this post with the first info when it's done. But I thought I'd get this up now since people were asking in the main thread.

Day 10 (results, text-only results)

10-0 Ye Hakuho

9-1 Ow Asanoyama, M17e Terunofuji

8-2 Se Shodai, Sw Mitakeumi, 

Going into the basho there was a question of how ready everyone would be. How would rikishi from smaller heya and heya with few sekitori do? How much ring rust would there be? To my eyes, it seems like some (Ikioi) the basho has been very hard going but for others the rest has done them a lot of good. Hakuho is looking like he is moving a bit better and his results show. Terunofuji is doing exceptionally well at the bottom of the division. Other veterans such as Kotoshogiku, Myogiryu and Okinoumi put in a good first week. Can their stamina hold up? Kakuryu was not so fortunate, getting himself injured in a self-inflicted Day 1 loss. We've only had one other injury so far - Kotonowaka, but of course there was Abi who found himself a novel way of exiting the basho.

Shin-Ozeki Asanoyama performed much better than I expected him to, putting in some good Ozeki-like sumo until he was surprised by Mitakeumi on Day 10. Mitakeumi tends to be very motivated for these higher kensho bouts. Will we see that against Takakeisho on Day 11? Speaking of which the kadoban Ozeki is just one win away from securing his rank. He hasn't looked great, feasting on a weakly performing joi. He has only faced (and lost to) one Sanyaku opponent so far and the remainder of his basho should be his highest 5 opponents left.

Shodai and Mitakeumi have both locked down Sekiwake slots already. The incumbent Komusbui duo of Daieisho and Okinoumi have a good shot of retaining their ranks too, meaning that there might not be any Sanyaku slots available. The current front-runner for any open slot is M2 Takanosho.

     10-0  Hakuho        Y    Kakuryu            0-2-8
     7-3  Takakeisho    O    Asanoyama     9-1
     8-2  Shodai            S    Mitakeumi      8-2
     6-4  Daieisho         K    Okinoumi       5-5

     4-6  Endo               M1   
     5-5  Takanosho     M2   
     4-6  Takarafuji       M3   Kiribayama     4-6
     4-6  Kagayaki        M4   Aoiyama          3-7
                                     M5   Hokutofuji       6-4
     4-6  Enho               M6   Ryuden             4-6
     5-5  Terutsuyoshi M7 Tokushoryu        6-4
     4-6 Ishiura             M8   Chiyotairyu      5-5
     7-3  Tamawashi    M9
                                     M10   Myogiryu        7-3
                                     M11 Tochinoshin     6-4

 

I've left Abi in the chart below. He ought to be safe, but who knows how mad he's made the Kyokai? Aside from him the most in danger rikishi are Kotoyuki and Chiyomaru (4 from 5) and Shimanoumi, Shohozan and Nishikigi who each need 3.

On the Juryo side only Meisei stands out as a credible promotion candidate. Everyone else has a lot to do.

 (?) 3-4-3 Abi              M5
                                     ...
                                     M9 Ikioi                2-8 (2)
                                     M10
(3) 2-4 Shimanoumi M11 
(1) 4-6 Sadanoumi   M12 Shohozan     2-8 (3)
(1) 5-5 Takayasu      M13 Kotonowaka 4-4-2 (2)
                                    M14
                                   M15 Chyomaru     3-7 (4)
(3) 4-6 Nishikigi       M16
                                   M17 Kotoyuki        4-6 (4)
       
(2)  6-4  Meisei                 J1   Chiyoshoma    3-7  (5)
(4)  5-5  Tobizaru              J2   
(5)  4-6  Azumaryu           J3   Kyokushuho      4-6  (5)
(5)  5-5  Daiamami           J4   Hidenoumi    4-6  (~)
(4)  6-4  Kyokutaisei         J5   Ichinojo    6-4  (4)
(5)  6-4  Hoshoryu             J6
                                             J7   Tsurugisho    5-5  (~)
(5)  7-3  Wakamotoharu   J8   
                        


It's just as well Tochiozan retired because that's the only slot that's opened up so far. With the way things are going it could be the only slot as only Asabenkei requires more than 2 wins for safety. At the moment that one slot would probably go to Ms3 Nishikifuji just ahead of Kitaharima. However, Chiyonokuni can still claim the top promotion spot from Ms12 with the Makushita yusho.

 

                                       J2   Tochiozan       Intai 
(1)  4-6  Akiseyama     J9
(2)  4-6  Daishoho       J10  Asabenkei   3-7  (3)
(2)  4-6  Fujiazuma     J11  Kizakiumi    4-6  (2)
(2)  5-5  Midorifuji      J12  Chiyonoo      6-4  (1)
(2)  5-5  Takagenji     J13   
(2)  6-4  Chiyooumi    J14  Mitoryu         7-3  (1)

    2-3   Kotodaigo      Ms1  
                                     Ms2  Oki               3-2
     4-1  Nishikifuji    Ms3  Kitaharima    4-1
     3-2  Sakigake     Ms4  Jokoryu         3-2  
     2-3  Naya            Ms5
                              ....
                                 Ms12 Chiyonokuni 5-0


Explanation of symbols used:

numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted)
o = favourable outcome achieved
x = favourable outcome definitely missed
~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck

Ok. My tables aren't as neat as @Asashosakari's. I've also used his entire methodology - not because I want to plagiarise but because he is a master at this and I wanted to keep as much of his wonderful work as possible.

Edited by Sakura
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Juryo yusho race through Day 10:

7-3 J8e Wakamotoharu, J13w Akua, J14w Mitoryu

6-4 J1e Meisei, J5e Kyokutaisei, J5w Ichinojo, J6e Hoshoryu, J8w Chiyootori, J12w Chiyonoo, J14e Chiyonoumi

5-5 J2e Tobizaru, J4e Daiamami, J7w Tsurugisho, J9w Churanoumi, J12e Midorifuji, J13e Takagenji

I haven't actually watched enough Juryo, so I can't comment on the quality of the action. By the numbers though, it seems like the regular Juryo scenario with 16 rikishi within two of the lead after Day 10.


Lower division yusho races:

5-0 Ms12w Chiyonokuni (Kokonoe)
5-0 Ms28w Ichiyamamoto (Nishonoseki)
5-0 Ms52w Yuma (Onomatsu)
5-0 Ms59w Tochiseiryu (Kasugano)

5-0 Sd25w Chiyodaigo (Kokonoe)
5-0 Sd41e Nakashima (Musashigawa)
5-0 Sd49e Dewanoryu (Dewanoumi)
5-0 Sd67e Fukai (Takasago)
5-0 Sd84w Mudoho (Otake)

5-0 Jd3w Hokuyozan (Tatsunami)
5-0 Jd28e Daihisho (Oitezake)
5-0 Jd46e Imafuku (Nishonoseki)
5-0 Jd62e Tomiyutaka (Tokitsuzake)
5-0 Jd75w Nabatama (Futagoyama)
5-0 Jd84e Takeoka (Oguruma)
5-0 Jd110w Azumaiwa (Tamanoi)

5-0 Jk18e Hokuseiho (Miyagino)
5-0 Jk20w Hozan (Otake)

In Makushita we have the interesting pairing of Chiyonokuni vs Ichiyamamoto, both of whom are trying to return to seitorihood after injuries. That race should come down to a single 6-0 vs 6-0 matchup on Day 12 anyway. Sandanme has 5 undefeated wrestlers and Jonidan 7, which means that if Mudoho loses his cross-division matchup then Sadanme will also come down to a single 6-0 vs 6-0 matchup. Mudoho is one of a couple of interesting wrestlers in Sandanme aiming for the Yusho, the other being Dewanoryu.

 

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Thank you for stepping in! Hypothetically, if there is only one open slot in Juryo, Ms1e Kotodaigo (2-3) wins his remaining bouts and finishes 4-3, and Chiyonokuni finishes 7-0, who gets promoted? It seems like neither a kachi-koshi Ms1e nor a 7-0 record from Ms15 and above has been denied promotion since the 1960s, so it's hard to say who'd have the stronger claim.

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9 hours ago, Reonito said:

Thank you for stepping in! Hypothetically, if there is only one open slot in Juryo, Ms1e Kotodaigo (2-3) wins his remaining bouts and finishes 4-3, and Chiyonokuni finishes 7-0, who gets promoted? It seems like neither a kachi-koshi Ms1e nor a 7-0 record from Ms15 and above has been denied promotion since the 1960s, so it's hard to say who'd have the stronger claim.

I'd be surprised if they couldn't manufacture a spot.

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10 hours ago, Reonito said:

Thank you for stepping in! Hypothetically, if there is only one open slot in Juryo, Ms1e Kotodaigo (2-3) wins his remaining bouts and finishes 4-3, and Chiyonokuni finishes 7-0, who gets promoted? It seems like neither a kachi-koshi Ms1e nor a 7-0 record from Ms15 and above has been denied promotion since the 1960s, so it's hard to say who'd have the stronger claim.

Well there was one tragic case of a 7-0 ms15TD not being promoted..

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Day 11 (results, text-only results)

10-1 Ye HakuhoOw Asanoyama, M17e Terunofuji

9-2 

8-3 Oe TakakeishoSe Shodai, Sw Mitakeumi, M9e Tamawashi, M14e Kotoshogiku, M16w Kotoeko

Daieisho's upset of Hakuho has brought Asanoyama and Terunofuji into the lead with him. Terunofuji hasn't exactly had the toughest slate and it'll be interesting to see how his match-ups go from hereon-out. He has Tamawashi on Day 12. Will they give him a Mitakeumi on Day 13 or perhaps two-off-the-pace Kotoshogiku? In recent basho they have waited until after the results of Day 14 to make the Day 15 torikumi and last time out they even waited until after Day 13 to make Day 14. I suspect they may do something similar here.

The 8 win rikishi are now just (still) two wins behind. Aside from the two Sekiwake who both lost, this includes Ozeki Takakeisho who erased his kadoban status (despite looking awful doing it) and a trio of lower ranked rikishi in Tamawashi, Kotoshogiku and Kotoeko. All in all we have seven former yusho winners out of the nine people in contention, but realistically the yusho winner should come from one of the leading trio. Takakeisho's status now means we'll have no kadoban Ozeki next basho, which is quite rare these days.

Sekiwake pair Shodai and Mitakeumi will try to get at least two more wins to get the magic double-digit number. Shodai has the tougher slate with the expected top-4 round robin still to come. Daieisho now needs just one win to remain in Sanyaku and Okinoumi only two. The best Okinoumi can hope for is a Komusubi slot, but Daieisho could get promoted to Sekiwake if he runs the table to finish 11-4. The current front-runner for any open slot is M5 Hokutofuji though that could change if Endo manages to pull off a KK from his rough first week. 

     10-1 Hakuho        Y    Kakuryu            0-2-9
     8-3  Takakeisho    O    Asanoyama     10-1
     8-3  Shodai            S    Mitakeumi       8-3
     7-4  Daieisho         K    Okinoumi        6-5

     5-6  Endo               M1   
     5-6  Takanosho     M2   
     4-7  Takarafuji       M3   Kiribayama     4-7
     4-7  Kagayaki        M4   Aoiyama          4-7
                                     M5   Hokutofuji       7-4
     5-6  Enho               M6   Ryuden             5-6
     5-6  Terutsuyoshi M7 Tokushoryu        6-5
     4-7 Ishiura             M8   Chiyotairyu      5-6
     8-3  Tamawashi    M9
                                     M10   Myogiryu        7-4
                                     M11 Tochinoshin     6-5

 

Aside from injured Kotonowaka, the rikishi most in danger of demotion is Chiyomaru who needs to win out to avoid having a demotable record. There were wins for Shimanoumi (against fellow demotion candidate Shohozan), Nishikigi, Kotoyuki, Sadanoumi and Takayasu. The latter two are now safe. 

On the Juryo side there were a number of wins in the promotion zone, but only Meisei remains close. Amazingly there have been some promotions from J4 with 8-7 records in the past so I've left Hidenoumi in given the absence of great promotion candidates.

 (?) 3-4-3 Abi              M5
                                     ...
                                     M9 Ikioi                2-9 (2)
                                     M10
(2) 3-8 Shimanoumi M11 
(o) 5-6 Sadanoumi   M12 Shohozan     2-9 (3)
(o) 6-5 Takayasu      M13 Kotonowaka 4-4-3 (2)
                                    M14
                                   M15 Chyomaru     3-8 (4)
(2) 5-6 Nishikigi       M16
                                   M17 Kotoyuki        5-6 (3)
       
(1)  7-4  Meisei                 J1   Chiyoshoma    3-8  (x)
(3)  6-5  Tobizaru              J2   
(~)  4-7  Azumaryu           J3   Kyokushuho      5-6  (4)
(~)  5-6  Daiamami           J4   Hidenoumi    4-7  (~)
(3)  7-4  Kyokutaisei         J5   Ichinojo    7-4  (3)
(4)  7-4  Hoshoryu             J6
                                             J7   Tsurugisho    5-6  (x)
(~)  7-4  Wakamotoharu   J8   
                        

Victories by Mitoryu, Chiyonoo and Akiseyama mean they are now safe, and there were victories also for Kizakiumi, Midorifuji and Takagenji. There are no matchups between demotion contenders on Day 12 so the picture could change a lot - or not at all.

To answer @Reonito's question. My guess is that Chiyonokuni would still get preference. We won't find out this basho though since Kotodaigo managed to lose to fellow contender Naya and put himself out of the running for promotion. Oki is now the nominal frontrunner after his win against promotion candidate Sakigake and losses by Nishikifuji and Kitaharima. 

                                       J2   Tochiozan       Intai 
(o)  5-6  Akiseyama     J9
(2)  4-7  Daishoho       J10  Asabenkei   3-8  (3)
(2)  4-7  Fujiazuma     J11  Kizakiumi    5-6  (1)
(1)  6-5  Midorifuji      J12  Chiyonoo      7-4  (o)
(1)  6-5  Takagenji     J13   
(2)  6-5  Chiyooumi    J14  Mitoryu         8-3  (o)

 (x)   2-4   Kotodaigo      Ms1  
                                     Ms2  Oki               4-2
     4-2  Nishikifuji    Ms3  Kitaharima    4-2
     3-3  Sakigake     Ms4  Jokoryu         4-2  
     3-3  Naya            Ms5
                              ....
                                 Ms12 Chiyonokuni 6-0


Explanation of symbols used:

numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted)
o = favourable outcome achieved
x = favourable outcome definitely missed
~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck.

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Posted (edited)

Juryo yusho race through Day 11:

8-3 J14w Mitoryu

7-4 J1e Meisei, J5e Kyokutaisei, J5w Ichinojo, J6e Hoshoryu, J8e Wakamotoharu, J12w Chiyonoo, J13w Akua

6-5 J2e TobizaruJ8w Chiyootori, J12e Midorifuji, J13e Takagenji, J14e Chiyonoumi

Mitoryu was the only one of the leaders to win on Day 11 so he now has the lead all to himself. Former leader Wakamotoharu has now lost 3 in a row and finds himself playing catch-up. The schedulers aren't doing any match-ups between contenders yet (aside from Wakamotoharu - Takagenji) so I won't list them. A result of the scheduling is that the names on this list could change a lot again tomorrow.


Lower division yusho races:

6-0 Ms12w Chiyonokuni (Kokonoe)
5-1 Ms28w Ichiyamamoto (Nishonoseki)
5-1 Ms52w Yuma (Onomatsu)
6-0 Ms59w Tochiseiryu (Kasugano)

5-1 Sd25w Chiyodaigo (Kokonoe)
6-0 Sd41e Nakashima (Musashigawa)
5-1 Sd49e Dewanoryu (Dewanoumi)
6-0 Sd67e Fukai (Takasago)
6-0 Sd84w Mudoho (Otake)

5-1 Jd3w Hokuyozan (Tatsunami)
6-0 Jd28e Daihisho (Oitezake)
5-1 Jd46e Imafuku (Nishonoseki)
5-1 Jd62e Tomiyutaka (Tokitsuzake)
6-0 Jd75w Nabatame (Futagoyama)
6-0 Jd84e Takeoka (Oguruma)
5-1 Jd110w Azumaiwa (Tamanoi)

6-0 Jk18e Hokuseiho (Miyagino)
5-1 Jk20w Hozan (Otake)

I don't have access to any of the lower division match-ups so if anyone could mention who they think might win would be great :-). What I can say is that the match-ups were paired down the banzuke in the usual fashion and there were no real surprises on paper as to the winners. Even Dewanoryu losing to last-basho's Sandanme Tsukedashi Fukai doesn't count as one.

Chiyonokuni has promotion as well as the Yusho on the line in the Makushita match-up on Day 13.  I imagine they'll pair Mudoho up with Daihisho with the winner moving into a divisional playoff. In Sandanme it'd be Nakashima or Fukai and I expect Fukai to be the favourite. In Jonidan it'll be Nabatame or Takeoka each appearing in only their second basho. Neither had outstanding Jonokuchi performances last time around, so it could be an interesting yusho for one of them. In Jonokuchi it'll be interesting to see if they match Hokuseiho up with a 5-1 rikishi from Jonidan or Jonokuchi. I suspect the latter given his low divisional rank.

 

Edited by Sakura
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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Sakura said:

6-0 Jk18e Hokuseiho (Miyagino)
5-1 Jk20w Hozan (Otake)

Isn't Hozan still in the race if Hokuseiho loses his final match?

Edited by Jakusotsu

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8 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Isn't Hozan still in the race if Hokuseiho loses his final match?

Yes. But I vaguely remember Asashosakari doing this, so I did it too. There are still a number of 1 loss rikishi still to fight on Day 12 so I'll wait until after that to make an amendment.

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Thank you for stepping in, Sakura. Much appreciated.

At what point do you think Onosho will start to figure among the at-risk rikishi? Abi has at least put 3 wins on the scoreboard, but I'm sure I remember 0-15 kyujo M1s going down before. I know the number of ranks between M1E and juryo varies with the number of sanyaku, but Onosho will have to secure a win or two to guarantee staying up by the numbers, won't he?

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3 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

Thank you for stepping in, Sakura. Much appreciated.

At what point do you think Onosho will start to figure among the at-risk rikishi? Abi has at least put 3 wins on the scoreboard, but I'm sure I remember 0-15 kyujo M1s going down before. I know the number of ranks between M1E and juryo varies with the number of sanyaku, but Onosho will have to secure a win or two to guarantee staying up by the numbers, won't he?

Not happened since 1798, so I think your memory is faulty.

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As I may have mentioned previously, my memory is awful. I was actually thinking of Osunaarashi, but he'd already dropped from M1 to M5 when he when 0-15. 

My question remains, but I'll rephrase it: can Onosho remain in makuuchi with no wins from M2?

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

As I may have mentioned previously, my memory is awful. I was actually thinking of Osunaarashi, but he'd already dropped from M1 to M5 when he when 0-15. 

My question remains, but I'll rephrase it: can Onosho remain in makuuchi with no wins from M2?

Sorry, I wasn't looking at the banzuke and assumed from your question that Onosho was M1. Tochitsukasa is the one unlucky rikishi in the modern era to be demoted to juryo with 0 wins from M2. With the expansion of the maegashira ranks these days it's very unlikely Onosho would go down.

Edited by ryafuji

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1 minute ago, RabidJohn said:

As I may have mentioned previously, my memory is awful. I was actually thinking of Osunaarashi, but he'd already dropped from M1 to M5 when he when 0-15. 

My question remains, but I'll rephrase it: can Onosho remain in makuuchi with no wins from M2?

Just last basho, Takayasu went 0-5-10 from M1, which is worse than 0-15 for banzuke purpose, and still ended up at M13.
Or Meisei went 1-7-7 from M5 in January and wasn't demoted neither. So yeah, Onosho is totally safe.

But you may wanna exclude him from you GTB entry, your call :-P

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1 minute ago, RabidJohn said:

As I may have mentioned previously, my memory is awful. I was actually thinking of Osunaarashi, but he'd already dropped from M1 to M5 when he when 0-15. 

My question remains, but I'll rephrase it: can Onosho remain in makuuchi with no wins from M2?

Yes. I believe so. He's not absent and the division stretches down to M17.

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29 minutes ago, Oortael said:

So yeah, Onosho is totally safe.

He may still go clubbing with Abi, though...

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3 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

He may still go clubbing with Abi, though...

Perhaps he already did and he’s carrying a bug.

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5 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

As I may have mentioned previously, my memory is awful. I was actually thinking of Osunaarashi, but he'd already dropped from M1 to M5 when he when 0-15.

Assuming it's what you're thinking of, Osunaarashi was also apparently being punished for getting married without telling anyone beforehand.

 

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Posted (edited)

With Takakeisho's withdrawal today, Terunofuji's matchup against Asanoyama tomorrow, and Hakuho's loss today, the yusho considerations are drastically simplified.

Terunofuji is likely to face Hakuho on D14.

The winner of the A v T match goes into day 14 as sole leader, although Hakuho can force a playoff if he wins out.

If the loser of the A v T match beats Hakuho, then the winner of the A v T match wins outright.

So the yusho could be decided on D14 if Terunofuji loses to Asanoyama but beats Hakuho. Otherwise, Hakuho will have to win twice on senshuraku to take the yusho.

Edited by Seiyashi
Damn you, Mitakeumi

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12 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Assuming it's what you're thinking of, Osunaarashi was also apparently being punished for getting married without telling anyone beforehand.

Must have been a shock for the bride.

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8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

If the loser of the A v T match beats Hakuho, then the winner of the A v T match wins outright.

Not really... The loser will just be one win off the pace on senshuraku so still has a chance of playoff.

A 12-3 yusho is still a possibility, so even Kotoeko has an outside yusho chance. One way for this to happen is if Asanoyama, Terunofuji and Hakuho meet each other and win one match each in their internal bouts, and then all three lose their remaining bout.

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1 minute ago, Kashunowaka said:

A 12-3 yusho is still a possibility, so even Kotoeko has an outside yusho chance. One way for this to happen is if Asanoyama, Terunofuji and Hakuho meet each other and win one match each in their internal bouts, and then all three lose their remaining bout.

Looking possible for Hakuho, especially if he goes kyujo, but I sure hope Asanoyama or Terunofuji don't let the yusho slip through their hands like that. That would be a really damp squib to end this basho on.

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Just now, Seiyashi said:

Looking possible for Hakuho, especially if he goes kyujo, but I sure hope Asanoyama or Terunofuji don't let the yusho slip through their hands like that. That would be a really damp squib to end this basho on.

It would indeed and it's *very* unlikely to play out that way. :-)

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Posted (edited)

Day 12 (results, text-only results)

11-1 Ow Asanoyama, M17e Terunofuji

10-2 Ye Hakuho

9-3 Se Shodai, Sw Mitakeumi, M16w Kotoeko

Shades of Hatsu 2019 as Hakuho loses two in a row late. Will he pull out of the tournament? Asanoyama and Terunofuji both won and they face off on Day 13 meaning that the yusho winner will have a record no worse than 12-3. It seems unlikely that the winner of that bout would then go on to lose two more so I'm fairly confident that the 3 loss rikishi are now out of the race.  

After securing his 8th win, Takakeisho pulled out of the basho giving Daieisho a freebie. This means that he has secured his Sanyaku spot. It'd be interesting if he does get to 11-4. Would he be given a Sekiwake slot with two fusen wins in his record? Okinoumi now needs just one more to retain his rank and get a first KK in Sanyaku. Stablemate Hokutofuji remains the front-runner for a slot but his Day 13 opponent Endo is trying to make things as interesting as possible for the banzuke committee.

     10-2 Hakuho        Y    Kakuryu            0-2-10
     8-4  Takakeisho    O    Asanoyama     11-1
     9-3  Shodai            S    Mitakeumi       9-3
     8-4  Daieisho         K    Okinoumi        7-5

     6-6  Endo               M1   
     6-6  Takanosho     M2   
(x)
4-8  Takarafuji       M3   Kiribayama     4-8  (x)
(x)4-8  Kagayaki        M4   Aoiyama          5-7
                                     M5   Hokutofuji       7-5
     5-7  Enho               M6   Ryuden             5-7
     6-6  Terutsuyoshi M7 Tokushoryu        6-6
 (x)4-8 Ishiura             M8   Chiyotairyu      5-7
     8-4  Tamawashi    M9
                                     M10   Myogiryu        8-4
                                     M11 Tochinoshin     7-5

 

If Kotonowaka does not appear on the Day 14 slate he'll have a demotable record. There were wins by Shimanoumi and Kotoyuki but losses by the rest. This means that Chiyomaru becomes our first rikishi with a demotable record. He still might get some luck if he wins out.

We do have someone to replace him (or Kotonowaka) though. Meisei secured his KK and a return to the top division. Tobizaru was the one to give Chiyomaru a loss in a crucial cross-divison bout and Tobizaru needs just two more for a regular promotion-worthy record. One might do it however depending on how the situation shakes out. There were wins also for Kyokushuho, Kyokutaisei and Hoshoryu so we haven't yet finished with the promotion possibilities.

 (?) 3-4-5 Abi              M5
                                     ...
                                     M9 Ikioi                2-10 (2)
                                     M10
(1) 4-8 Shimanoumi M11 
                                    M12 Shohozan     2-10 (3)
                                   M13 Kotonowaka 4-4-3 (2)
                                    M14
                                   M15 Chyomaru     3-9 (~)
(2) 5-7 Nishikigi       M16
                                   M17 Kotoyuki        6-6 (2)
       
(o)  8-4  Meisei                 J1   
(2)  7-5  Tobizaru              J2   
(x)  4-8  Azumaryu           J3   Kyokushuho      6-6  (3)
(~)  6-6  Daiamami           J4   Hidenoumi    5-7  (~)
(2)  8-4  Kyokutaisei         J5   Ichinojo    7-5  (3)
(3)  8-4  Hoshoryu             J6
                                             J7  
(~)  8-4  Wakamotoharu   J8   
                        

The only winner in the demotion zone was Fujiazuma, who now becomes one of four rikishi who only need one more win for safety. Asabenkei needs to win out and Daishoho and Chiyonoumi both need two from three.

There was no action in the Makushita promotion zone so that picture remains the same. They have paired Oki up with Asabenkei on Day 13. A win by Oki would send Asabenkei down and secure his own slot. The only other action up her is 3-3 Naya against Hokaho. However, at best he'll only be 5th in the queue so I don;t think he'll be promoted anyway.

Nishikifuji has already faced Kitaharima and Jokoryu so I suspect he'll be pulled up for a Juryo match on Day 14. Kitaharima and Jokoryu could face each other or be pulled up themselves.

                                       J2   Tochiozan       Intai 
                                       J9
(2)  4-8  Daishoho       J10  Asabenkei   3-9  (3)
(1)  5-7  Fujiazuma     J11  Kizakiumi    5-7  (1)
(1)  6-6  Midorifuji      J12  
(1)  6-6  Takagenji     J13   
(2)  6-6  Chiyonoumi    J14 

                                     Ms1  
                                     Ms2  Oki               4-2
     4-2  Nishikifuji    Ms3  Kitaharima    4-2
     3-3  Sakigake     Ms4  Jokoryu         4-2  
     3-3  Naya            Ms5
                              ....
                                 Ms12 Chiyonokuni 6-0


Explanation of symbols used:

numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted)
o = favourable outcome achieved
x = favourable outcome definitely missed
~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck.

Edited by Sakura
Forgot Tochiozan existed.
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It's possible that we will get a situation where everyone in sanyaku stays within their rank and no maegashira is promoted to sanyaku. As far as I could find, this has happened three times in the modern era, the last time being Natsu 1988.

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