Kintamayama

This IS the July 2020 Basho thread!! Spoilers!!

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The yusho prediction by Waka is usual the kiss of death - I was expecting Hakuho to go kyujo any day after that, but Kakuryu went first

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As long as Hakuho doesn't lose tomorrow also and pull a repeat of his Hatsu 2019 withdrawal. Kitanofuji will be on his case for that.

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And now things have gotten very interesting indeed. Mitakeumi, you are a glorious mess. Hakuho, put on your big boy pants: it was your match to lose and you lost it. Pleased to note that Takayasu and Tochinoshin both look poised to go KK this basho.

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1 minute ago, dada78641 said:

Incredible. For a second I thought Mitakeumi might've stepped out just before he was able to throw Hakuho, but guess not!

Hakuho looking groggy after that one!

Now we're looking at a possibility where Hakuho has to beat Asanoyama to force a playoff, if Terunofuji also loses. If he doesn't, Hakuho beating Asanoyama would mean Terunofuji can claim the prize without a playoff. Then we'll have had two M17 victories with only one basho in between (Yushowinner...)

This is assuming Hakuho doesn't face Terunofuji on day 14.

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Posted (edited)

Oh, nevermind what I said in my previous post about Terunofuji stealing the bone while two other dogs are fighting over it. He will be fighting Hakuho if it comes down to it.

Was just looking at the planned and expected matchups (from BEFORE the bout):

EePX60T.jpg

1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

This is assuming Hakuho doesn't face Terunofuji on day 14.

Absolutely right, just realized that

Edited by dada78641

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6 minutes ago, dada78641 said:

Incredible. For a second I thought Mitakeumi might've stepped out just before he was able to throw Hakuho, but guess not!

Hakuho looking groggy after that one!

Now we're looking at a possibility where Hakuho has to beat Asanoyama to force a playoff, if Terunofuji also loses. If he doesn't, Hakuho beating Asanoyama would mean Terunofuji can claim the prize without a playoff. Then we'll have had two M17 victories with only one basho in between (Yushowinner...)

Exciting as that prospect is (M17 yusho) I’m more eager to see the Ozeki yusho. It’s been a very long time indeed since we had one of those and it’d mean a proper Yokozuna run.

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Looks about right. So the winner of tomorrow's Asanoyama v Terunofuji bout will be 12-1 chased by the other two at 11-2 (assuming Shodai doesn't get ideas about ozeki). Now that Hakuho is one off and Takakeisho has pulled out, it seems right that they would put Terunofuji in it.

Whoever wins tomorrow's A v T bout, Hakuho can still force a playoff by winning out from here. The loser of the A v T bout can still play spoiler by beating Hakuho the day after, handing the yusho to the winner of the A v T bout. All this is assuming Hakuho doesn't go kyujo.

I'm more concerned about the damage to Asanoyama's promotion chances if Hakuho goes kyujo though. Even if he loses to Hakuho in a decider on senshuraku, it's good enough for an equivalent, but if he wins a yusho without beating Hakuho, there's still going to be a question mark over whether it's worth counting this in a rope run.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, dada78641 said:

Was just looking at the planned and expected matchups (from BEFORE the bout):

EePX60T.jpg

11 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

This is assuming Hakuho doesn't face Terunofuji on day 14.

 Absolutely right, just realized that

In a word, Terunofuji's final three days matchups are "brutal"!  Having to face the sole remaining Ozeki on day 13, the sole remaining Yokozuna on day 14, and a Sanyaku opponent on senshuraku is about as tough as you can make it.  I'd say that there is a conscious effort to make sure that Asanoyama wins the yusho in his Ozeki debut.  What I can't figure out is why the Head of the Judges Committee, Isegahama Oyakata, is allowing his own deshi to go through the this trial by fire.  If for whatever reason, Terunofuji prevails, there will be no question that he deserved the yusho and that ... he's back!

Edited by Amamaniac

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Looks about right. So the winner of tomorrow's Asanoyama v Terunofuji bout will be 12-1 chased by the other two at 11-2 (assuming Shodai doesn't get ideas about ozeki). Now that Hakuho is one off and Takakeisho has pulled out, it seems right that they would put Terunofuji in it.

Whoever wins tomorrow's A v T bout, Hakuho can still force a playoff by winning out from here. The loser of the A v T bout can still play spoiler by beating Hakuho the day after, handing the yusho to the winner of the A v T bout. All this is assuming Hakuho doesn't go kyujo.

I'm more concerned about the damage to Asanoyama's promotion chances if Hakuho goes kyujo though. Even if he loses to Hakuho in a decider on senshuraku, it's good enough for an equivalent, but if he wins a yusho without beating Hakuho, there's still going to be a question mark over whether it's worth counting this in a rope run.

There’s absolutely no question of discounting any yusho by an Ozeki towards a Yokozuna run in my humble opinion, Hakuho or no. He can only win against who they put in front of him.

Edited by Eikokurai
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Just now, Amamaniac said:

What I can't figure out is why the Head of the Judges Committee, Isegahama Oyakata, is allowing his own deshi to go through the this trial by fire.

It's the same type of question around Harumafuji and Hakuho's friendship, back when the former was challenging for yokozuna promotion.

Some people wondered if Hakuho went soft, but that's the worst thing to do as a friend at that time, because you don't want that hanging over your friendship for the rest of time.

Terunofuji's no maiden M17, and he's fought this calibre of opponent before. If he can't beat them, he just needs more time to climb back up. If he can, well, as you say, he back. I see it as a chance to prove himself and, if he does win the yusho, there can be no doubts about the quality of his opposition. Cf Tokushoryu, who faced a oddball ozeki and a streaky (to-be) sekiwake for his yusho; I'd say the quality of that yusho is highly questionable.

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1 minute ago, Eikokurai said:

There’s absolutely no question of discounting any yusho by an Ozeki towards a Yokozuna run in my humble opinion, Hakuho or no.

There's the Chiyonoyama "precedent", where he won 2 basho back to back but in the absence of yokozuna in the first basho at least. That said, his was the first modern promotion, and you could argue (and I also hope) that the age and unusual nature of the precedent mean it's unlikely to bear here.

The more recent precedent which gives me hope that you're right is Asashoryu's own rope run, both of which were in the absence of Yokozuna for the relevant parts of the bashos. Musashimaru was kyujo for both basho, and Takanohana was kyujo in the first and retired in the second.

So if Asanoyama does win the yusho, it's a rope run for him, I hope.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

There's the Chiyonoyama "precedent", where he won 2 basho back to back but in the absence of yokozuna in the first basho at least. That said, his was the first modern promotion, and you could argue (and I also hope) that the age and unusual nature of the precedent mean it's unlikely to bear here.

The more recent precedent which gives me hope that you're right is Asashoryu's own rope run, both of which were in the absence of Yokozuna for the relevant parts of the bashos. Musashimaru was kyujo for both basho, and Takanohana was kyujo in the first and retired in the second.

So if Asanoyama does win the yusho, it's a rope run for him, I hope.

Different times. We haven’t had an Ozeki yusho for more than 3.5 years and, frankly, sumo needs a new Yokozuna pretty soon. I don’t see the Kyokai turning down an opportunity to put an Ozeki on a tsuna-run, however green he may be. If they pass him up, they risk waiting a while before he’s back in the hunt under the ‘Win when there’s a Yokozuna’ terms and conditions.

Moreover, they’ve already shown willingness to loosen the requirements for Asanoyama with his Ozeki promotion. He didn’t make the typical 33/45 and it bothered no one. They rightly looked at the bigger picture (long term form, bout quality, etc.)

Edited by Eikokurai
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50 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

In a word, Terunofuji's final three days matchups are "brutal"!  Having to face the sole remaining Ozeki on day 13, the sole remaining Yokozuna on day 14, and a Sanyaku opponent on senshuraku is about as tough as you can make it.  I'd say that there is a conscious effort to make sure that Asanoyama wins the yusho in his Ozeki debut.  What I can't figure out is why the Head of the Judges Committee, Isegahama Oyakata, is allowing his own deshi to go through the this trial by fire.  If for whatever reason, Terunofuji prevails, there will be no question that he deserved the yusho and that ... he's back!

I dunno. If any rikishi goes 11-1 at the bottom of the division, it's not the time for the torikumi committee to be pulling punches. Let alone if it's a former ozeki.

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19 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Different times. We haven’t had an Ozeki yusho for more than 3.5 years and, frankly, sumo needs a new Yokozuna pretty soon. I don’t see the Kyokai turning down an opportunity to put an Ozeki on a tsuna-run, however green he may be. If they pass him up, they risk waiting a while before he’s back in the hunt under the ‘Win when there’s a Yokozuna’ terms and conditions.

Moreover, they’ve already shown willingness to loosen the requirements for Asanoyama with his Ozeki promotion. He didn’t make the typical 33/45 and it bothered no one. They rightly looked at the bigger picture (long term form, bout quality, etc.)

Exactly. Now there is the YDC, which has a written rule that a yusho forces a yokozuna run, because a 2nd forces the promotion - lack of hinkaku is the only thing to stop it. Only in case of a runner-up result, the quality counts, because then the rule demands a vote in the YDC. There are ways to avoid a YDC decision though (cancel the meetings due to Corona is one).

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WTH.... Mitakeumi -- does he need to be slapped like that in his 2nd week bouts to stay awake??

Wonder if Hakuho would go kyujo. He was limping and it doesn't seem that he likes to fight back strongly after consecutive losses.

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1 minute ago, hakutorizakura said:

Wonder if Hakuho would go kyujo. He was limping and it doesn't seem that he likes to fight back strongly after consecutive losses.

That's the $500,000 question right now.  He had a nasty scrape on his right shoulder after hitting the tamara on his way down off the ring (not that that should stop a dedicated grappling athlete).  But when Hakuho pulled out of the New Year Tournament earlier this year (pre-COVID), he cited feeling injured after his fall in the bout he lost to Endo on day 2.  Let's just say, Hakuho now has some excuses reasons at hand ("consecutive losses" as you say and a potentially bothersome injury) to decide to withdraw from the tournament.  If he does do that, then Terunofuji will have one less "big fish" on his torikumi plate – and the same goes for co-frontrunner Asanoyama.  With Takakeisho and potentially Hakuho gone, I wonder who Asanoyama would end up fighting on senshuraku...

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

With Takakeisho and potentially Hakuho gone, I wonder who Asanoyama would end up fighting on senshuraku...

Maybe Kotoeko, who is currently 9-3 and tied for third place with Shodai & Mitakeumi?  I can't think of anyone else.

Edited by sumojoann

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8 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

That's the $500,000 question right now.  He had a nasty scrape on his right shoulder after hitting the tamara on his way down off the ring (not that that should stop a dedicated grappling athlete).  But when Hakuho pulled out of the New Year Tournament earlier this year (pre-COVID), he cited feeling injured after his fall in the bout he lost to Endo on day 2.  

I thought Hakuho injured himself on 9 when he went Gyoji bowling. He got up pretty slowly and appeared to be walking slowly and carefully afterwards. 

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Can we spare a thought for Kotoshoho who has been within one win of a maiden makuuchi kachikoshi for three straight days but unable to cross the line? Poor chap. Hope he makes it.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Can we spare a thought for Kotoshoho who has been within one win of a maiden makuuchi kachikoshi for three straight days but unable to cross the line? Poor chap. Hope he makes it.

Even if he doesn't, he should be fine. He's only a half-rank below Enho's M14W, who also choked his makuuchi debut with a 7-8. I hope he gets his KK too, but the rest of his potential fight card is doing fairly well this tournament - Myogiryu, Tochinoshin, Ishiura, and Tokushoryu. The worst-performing opponents he could reasonably get would be the M6 pair of Enho and Ryuden, both at 5-7, but that might be a little out of his league scheduling-wise.

21 minutes ago, sumojoann said:

Maybe Kotoeko, who is currently 9-3 and tied for third place with Shodai & Mitakeumi?  I can't think of anyone else.

Ignoring arasoi performance, and looking at the W/L matrix so far, Enho's also a possible candidate, although that would be quite an inconsequential note to end the tournament on.

Edited by Seiyashi

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2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Even if he doesn't, he should be fine. He's only a half-rank below Enho's M14W, who also choked his makuuchi debut with a 7-8. I hope he gets his KK too, but the rest of his potential fight card is doing fairly well this tournament - Myogiryu, Tochinoshin, Ishiura, and Tokushoryu. The worst-performing opponents he could reasonably get would be the M6 pair of Enho and Ryuden, both at 5-7, but that might be a little out of his league scheduling-wise.

Yeah, I’m not worried about his top division status, just a shame to see his early form come to such an abrupt halt. He started 5-0 and was 6-2 on Nakabi. I thought he was heading towards a prize; now he’ll be thrilled just to KK.

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On 27/07/2020 at 16:09, Akinomaki said:

Takadagawa was head shimpan - maybe he has still aftereffects from Corona. Unfortunately the best head shimpan they had, Fujishima, was removed from duty at the dohyo

On 25/03/2020 at 18:34, Kintamayama said:

More posts- Fujishima and Hanakago will be deputies of the judging department and will be in charge of torikumi and banzuke making , but will not do actual dohyo-side shinpan duties. 

Actually, Fujishima is alternating with Nishiko as head shimpan in the sekitori shifts this basho

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Such a fairy tale story Terunofuji is living.

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Posted (edited)

Tomorrow Asanoyama vs Terunofuji for the lead! I can't remember the last time I was this exited for a single sumo battle.

As it stands after day 12 Hoshoryu is 4th in line for promotion to makuuchi. Chiyomaru and Kotonowaka are already sure of demotion and Shohozan needs to win his last three. Nishikigi needs two more wins to be safe and Ikioi probably too. I'd say were on track for Hoshoryus makuuchi debut in Aki!

Edited by Gooner
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18 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

 

Ignoring arasoi performance, and looking at the W/L matrix so far, Enho's also a possible candidate, although that would be quite an inconsequential note to end the tournament on.

That would be hilarious to have Asanoyama fight Enho on Senshuraku!!!  lol   But I don't think Enho has his KK yet.  Wouldn't that make a difference?

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