This IS the July 2020 Basho thread!! Spoilers!!

[Amamaniac 2,066]

6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Levity aside, either way, one stable is getting all of that innit? So hypothetically, assuming the stables are equal, it doesn't matter which stable it goes to, but then Asanoyama can start a rope run with a yusho (junyusho-doten as well?) while Terunofuji is doing sod all with the same.

That's a little harsh, wouldn't you say?  I agree with your earlier comment that it might be best for Teru's career going forward to avoid a huge jump up the banzuke, to find his "Makuuchi legs" so to say.  But even if Terunofuji doesn't win the yusho, he is going to shoot a long way up the banzuke.  So if I were in his shoes, I would be more concerned with making the most of this opportunity.  And winning a Top Division championship is more than just a "wodge of cash" and some mushrooms.  It's also about establishing your record in the oozumo history books.  That counts for a little more than "sod all".

 

Edited July 30, 2020 by Amamaniac

[Seiyashi 4,059]

I take the point that a yusho is A Big Thing, and I'm not meaning to suggest that Terunofuji shouldn't strive for it. Abema's already using the term - and I wholly agree - "revival miracle" to caption Terunofuji's bouts, and I think it would make a lovely comeback story for him to win the yusho too, not to mention setting some kind of unique record with his fall to Jd55, return to makuuchi, and then immediately taking a makujiri yusho. His stock will rise immensely with sumo fans, which is something he needs.

But the point still stands - albeit maybe in not so harsh terms - that in terms of immediate promotion, the yusho matters much more for Asanoyama than for Terunofuji, and arguably for the long term future of the sport as well. I think we can all agree that even if Terunofuji gets back to ozeki or - even with some fairy dust, Shunba's sagari and Aminishiki's knee bracers, yokozuna - he's not likely to stay active long at that rank before his injuries catch up with him again. And this is not just old injuries but possibly new ones caused by compensating for the old ones.

I'd say we need Asanoyama to get to yokozuna ASAP, since at this time he's the best possible candidate, more than we need another Cinderella story or makujiri yusho, as much as the latter is heartwarming. That's what I meant when I said Terunofuji was doing sod all with another yusho, especially because it's not as if he hasn't already won one. 

[Eikokurai 3,430]

3 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I take the point that a yusho is A Big Thing, and I'm not meaning to suggest that Terunofuji shouldn't strive for it. Abema's already using the term - and I wholly agree - "revival miracle" to caption Terunofuji's bouts, and I think it would make a lovely comeback story for him to win the yusho too, not to mention setting some kind of unique record with his fall to Jd55, return to makuuchi, and then immediately taking a makujiri yusho. His stock will rise immensely with sumo fans, which is something he needs.

But the point still stands - albeit maybe in not so harsh terms - that in terms of immediate promotion, the yusho matters much more for Asanoyama than for Terunofuji, and arguably for the long term future of the sport as well. I think we can all agree that even if Terunofuji gets back to ozeki or - even with some fairy dust, Shunba's sagari and Aminishiki's knee bracers, yokozuna - he's not likely to stay active long at that rank before his injuries catch up with him again. And this is not just old injuries but possibly new ones caused by compensating for the old ones.

I'd say we need Asanoyama to get to yokozuna ASAP, since at this time he's the best possible candidate, more than we need another Cinderella story or makujiri yusho, as much as the latter is heartwarming. That's what I meant when I said Terunofuji was doing sod all with another yusho, especially because it's not as if he hasn't already won one. 

I think this is a fair assessment. All things being what they are and it not being possible to award a yusho to both men, Asanoyama winning it would be more significant for sumo at large, whereas a Terunofuji win would be an awesome feel-good story and one for the sport historians to remember, but more of a personal thing.

[Konosato 44]

What is striking about Hakuho for this basho is that he practically only used the pushing technique, where he mostly preferred the belt. He won only three times on Mawashi: Day 2 against Yutakayama, Day 5 against Onosho and Day 7 against Kiribayama.

[Karasukurai 165]

33 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

And winning a Top Division championship is more than just a "wodge of cash" and some mushrooms.

I spat my coffee out laughing at that.

[hakutorizakura 565]

On Shodai/Mitakeumi, I was curious about how they perform on a day-by-day basis. So I made a graph of their win percentage in Makuuchi per basho day (until last basho). Looks like Mitakeumi's 2nd half slump is no myth.

[Ryoshishokunin 242]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Or the beef, mushrooms, rice, macarons, etcetc...

Levity aside, either way, one stable is getting all of that innit? So hypothetically, assuming the stables are equal, it doesn't matter which stable it goes to, but then Asanoyama can start a rope run with a yusho (junyusho-doten as well?) while Terunofuji is doing sod all with the same.

It matters a lot to them, though.  It seemed to me you were suggesting that Terunofuji himself shouldn't be that interested in winning because it would be bad for him going forward, but the reward in the short term is pretty great.  

(Also, there's bonus money for yusho winners as part of their salary, IIRC)

[RabidJohn 1,564]

5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

... Hochi quotes Miyagino as saying he will [go kyujo] if the right knee pain doesn't subside by tomorrow.

I've been umming and ahhing about this, but it was a gut feeling that came while I was watching Hakuho make his unnecessarily long way back on to the dohyo. Now the kyujo is a real possibility, I'll just come right out with it:

Hakuho was supposed to be done with all this by now. The first Sunday (i.e. the original senshuraku of the Nagoya Basho) should have been his last as an active yokozuna. That was the plan. Judging by his performance he could have gone out on a high as a yusho contender right to the end. Now he's injured - again.

And there's Asanoyama. If the 2021 Tokyo Olympics happen, fresh young Japanese yokozuna Asanoyama will be the one doing the dohyo iri. The former-Mongolian, indisputable GOAT knows it, so why hang on any longer?

Somebody is going to break Hakuho's fighting spirit sooner or later. I saw it happen to Chiyonofuji (I'm actually welling up a bit thinking about it), but what if that's what Mitakeumi really did today?

Edited July 30, 2020 by RabidJohn

[Seiyashi 4,059]

1 minute ago, Ryoshishokunin said:

It matters a lot to them, though.  It seemed to me you were suggesting that Terunofuji himself shouldn't be that interested in winning because it would be bad for him going forward, but the reward in the short term is pretty great.  

Yeah, it seems my initial post did give rise to that impression. I'm not going to edit them, for posterity's sake, because they've already been the subject of two different posts, but for the record I'm not suggesting that Terunofuji shouldn't be aiming for the yusho. Like I said earlier, it would cap off a wonderful comeback for him, but in the long term his yusho doesn't matter for sumo.

What I was driving at was that all else being equal, only Asanoyama in the ozeki rank can get anything more than anyone else would out of a yusho, because he's the only one on the current banzuke who can capitalise on the yusho to start a rope run.

Whoever wins the yusho - gets all the money, all the mushrooms, the prestige, and whatever, but it's otherwise identical for everyone up and down the banzuke. Of course there are knockons, like Tokushoryu hoping his yusho sparks a sumo revival in Nara etcetc, but everyone has their own reasons as such that can't really be compared, and for sake of argument can be lumped in with the non-material benefits of a yusho that anyone would get (if Okinoumi had won Hatsu 2020, for example, you could equally say more people in Shimane could be inspired).

[code_number3 688]

Is Hakuho still have desire to be oldest yusho winner as yokozuna (Chiyonofuji’s record) or even oldest makuuchi yusho (Kyokutenho’s record)?

Age can’t be lied, his body alarm is sounding very hard.

[Seiyashi 4,059]

1 minute ago, RabidJohn said:

I've been umming and ahhing about this, but it was a gut feeling that came while I was watching Hakuho make his unnecessarily long way back on to the dohyo. Now the kyujo is a real possibility, I'll just come right out with it:

Hakuho was supposed to be done with all this by now. The first Sunday (i.e. the original senshuraku of the Nagoya Basho) should have been his last as an active yokozuna. That was the plan. Judging by his performance he could have gone out on a high as a yusho contender right to the end. Now he's injured - again.

And there's Asanoyama. If the 2121 Tokyo Olympics happen, fresh young Japanese yokozuna Asanoyama will be the one doing the dohyo iri. The former-Mongolian, indisputable GOAT knows it, so why hang on any longer?

Somebody is going to break Hakuho's fighting spirit sooner or later. I saw it happen to Chiyonofuji (I'm actually welling up a bit thinking about it), but what if that's what Mitakeumi really did today?

I'm praying for Mitakeumi's sake that that's not what he did, because if he fails to make ozeki again, his win against Hakuho will have been for nothing, and that will be one more reason for me to dislike Mitakeumi.

Between Hakuho's public statements, I'm not sure that he will let Asanoyama take his place so easily just because Mitakeumi got the better of him one more time. At least one more bout between him and the next yokozuna will have to do it, because he will have to break his own fervently held wish to appear at the Olympics like his father. That filial aspiration can't be underestimated - Hakuho went to 36 because of his father, delayed taking Japanese citizenship until after his father's death for whatever reason, and has explicitly said he wants to appear at the Olympics like his father. He will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into retirement before he will break that promise, I think.

I think it's more likely that given how the pandemic is going, there's a good chance 2021 won't happen and will be cancelled, in which case we'll suddenly see Hakuho retire the day after that announcement or something. Because that will be an eternal regret, made worse in the short term by the fact that he can't do anything about it.

[Amamaniac 2,066]

4 minutes ago, code_number3 said:

Is Hakuho still have desire to be oldest yusho winner as yokozuna (Chiyonofuji’s record) or even oldest makuuchi yusho (Kyokutenho’s record)?

His more immediate goal is breaking the Wolf's oldest yusho winner as a Yokozuna record, which apparently he becomes eligible to do next tournament (i.e., September), ... if there is a tournament.  Given time and the semblance of the possibility, he could well come up with other goals.  Clearly, that has got him this far.

[Kashunowaka 298]

18 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

If the 2121 Tokyo Olympics happen

...we won't be around to watch them! 

[Karasukurai 165]

It wouldn't bother me at all if Asanoyama doesn't win this basho. I do appreciate that he has become Japan's great hope for a home-grown Yokozuna, fine,  but I've had things in my fridge longer than Asanoyama has been an Ozeki. I'd like him to find his feet for a few tournaments before going on a 'rope run'. Still, I am warming to him, perhaps I'm just a bit nervous given to what happened to the last great Japanese hope.

[Amamaniac 2,066]

33 minutes ago, Karasukurai said:

It wouldn't bother me at all if Asanoyama doesn't win this basho. I do appreciate that he has become Japan's great hope for a home-grown Yokozuna, fine,  but I've had things in my fridge longer than Asanoyama has been an Ozeki. I'd like him to find his feet for a few tournaments before going on a 'rope run'. Still, I am warming to him, perhaps I'm just a bit nervous given to what happened to the last great Japanese hope.

That's a coincidence.  I spat my coffee out laughing at that.  

[Seiyashi 4,059]

I barely refrained from spitting out my tea, but then Asanoyama's only been Ozeki for four months at best. Some cheeses need a while to, ah, ripen...

Now if you told me you have things in your fridge longer than Kaio's been an Ozeki...

[Seiyashi 4,059]

1 hour ago, hakutorizakura said:

On Shodai/Mitakeumi, I was curious about how they perform on a day-by-day basis. So I made a graph of their win percentage in Makuuchi per basho day (until last basho). Looks like Mitakeumi's 2nd half slump is no myth.

What would be interesting is if you control for quality of opposition, both in terms of rank and opposition. Mitakeumi has been in sanyaku a lot longer than Shodai, and the second week is traditionally when sekiwake start fighting the yokozuna and ozeki, especially given that there've been 3-4 ozeki for much of the time when Mitakeumi was sekiwake. Can his slump be attributed to the fact that he's fighting a generally higher quality of opposition? Or have they happened even with a depleted sanyaku slate?

Edited July 30, 2020 by Seiyashi

[Sue 470]

8 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

What would be interesting is if you control for quality of opposition, both in terms of rank and opposition. Mitakeumi has been in sanyaku a lot longer than Shodai, and the second week is traditionally when sekiwake start fighting the yokozuna and ozeki, especially given that there've been 3-4 ozeki for much of the time when Mitakeumi was sekiwake. Can his slump be attributed to the fact that he's fighting a generally higher quality of opposition? Or have they happened even with a depleted sanyaku slate?

I would expect someone in the joi to suffer in the first week, and someone in sanyaku to suffer in the second week. But why does Mitakeumi have such trouble on nakabi?

[Jakusotsu 5,500]

20 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

56 minutes ago, Karasukurai said:

It wouldn't bother me at all if Asanoyama doesn't win this basho. I do appreciate that he has become Japan's great hope for a home-grown Yokozuna, fine,  but I've had things in my fridge longer than Asanoyama has been an Ozeki. I'd like him to find his feet for a few tournaments before going on a 'rope run'. Still, I am warming to him, perhaps I'm just a bit nervous given to what happened to the last great Japanese hope.

That's a coincidence.  I spat my coffee out laughing at that.

As it happens, I have this particular piece of butter in my fridge since Kakuryu won his first career yusho - in Sandanme!
(...at least I suppose it's still there - I haven't been looking under the cover for a quite a while...)

Now, what does that tell us about Asanoyama?

[Jakusotsu 5,500]

8 minutes ago, Sue said:

But why does Mitakeumi have such trouble on nakabi?

Perhaps his Mom is watching?

[Seiyashi 4,059]

8 minutes ago, Sue said:

I would expect someone in the joi to suffer in the first week, and someone in sanyaku to suffer in the second week. But why does Mitakeumi have such trouble on nakabi?

Too much drinking on Saturday?

Early on as komusubi, he was repeatedly running into yokozuna and ozeki. Looking at his sumodb page, he was repeatedly losing on nakabi for much of 2017 and 2018, and only evened it out later on.

[Karasukurai 165]

Now Mitakeumi , never liked the guy. He's got the 'proper' rikishi 'look', vast amounts of skill and whenever I've seen him in programmes he comes across as a nice guy. He's totally infuriating, beats the best then loses to the worst and there's a lot of Mita dislike on here, perhaps rightfully so.

1 hour ago, hakutorizakura said:

Looks like Mitakeumi's 2nd half slump is no myth.

There's that too. He's also failed to deliver Ozeki and has had so many runs it's like he's eating nothing but dodgy curry.

Now, I'm standing up in this forum and saying ... "I like Mitakeumi, he's become one of my favourites". Phew, said it, I'm out at last. The lads going to do good, ... eventually.

[Kintamayama 43,577]

4 minutes ago, Karasukurai said:

 

Now, I'm standing up in this forum and saying ... "I like Mitakeumi, he's become one of my favourites". Phew, said it, I'm out at last. The lads going to do good, ... eventually.

Shades of Wakanosato, I say. Will never make it to Ozeki, regardless of his being a nice guy. We shall see. 

[Karasukurai 165]

1 minute ago, Kintamayama said:

Will never make it to Ozeki, regardless of his being a nice guy. We shall see.

I bow to your wisdom and no doubt you're right. Still, I'll be shouting at the TV nevertheless! Come on Mita lad.

[Kintamayama 43,577]

7 minutes ago, Karasukurai said:

I bow to your wisdom and no doubt you're right. Still, I'll be shouting at the TV nevertheless! Come on Mita lad.

Last May I was at the kkan. Quietly but visibly, Mitakeumi fans outnumbered other fans by far, including Enhou fans. By far. The elderly conservative crowd see in him the perfect classic sumotori.