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Kaminariyuki

General Corona Banter

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2 hours ago, Kaminariyuki said:

Interesting etymology, I suspect, on "haze."  

although a lot of this COVID-19 bit has gone as I expected, I'm seriously confused by some of the numbers being reported. Even though I understand the extreme measures that have been taken in China, but I don't see how they could be down to 19 new cases in a day. It's going to be very enlightening to see what happens in Japan, Italy, Germany, the USA and France, IMO.

For me the most fascinating thing is seeing the numbers coming out of Italy. 167 dead yesterday. 196 today. That’s a 6.6% death rate. Wuhan, epicentre of the outbreak and worst hit region, only reported a one-day toll that high once, when it changed the way it records deaths. I think Italy’s data gives us a clearer insight into the true virulence of this disease and suggests Wuhan’s numbers weren’t entirely accurate/honest. I don’t see how one city with overwhelmed hospitals could keep its rate between 3% and 4% but the whole of Italy can’t. Note I’m just talking about death rate here. China may have done a good job containing the spread, but that shouldn’t make much of a difference on the death rate percentage.

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14 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

For me the most fascinating thing is seeing the numbers coming out of Italy. 167 dead yesterday. 196 today. That’s a 6.6% death rate. Wuhan, epicentre of the outbreak and worst hit region, only reported a one-day toll that high once, when it changed the way it records deaths. I think Italy’s data gives us a clearer insight into the true virulence of this disease and suggests Wuhan’s numbers weren’t entirely accurate/honest. I don’t see how one city with overwhelmed hospitals could keep its rate between 3% and 4% but the whole of Italy can’t. Note I’m just talking about death rate here. China may have done a good job containing the spread, but that shouldn’t make much of a difference on the death rate percentage.

It's worth noting that one reason this has hit Italy so hard is that they have an older population than the rest of Europe on average, also older than China. (Median age of population for China vs. Italy is 38.4 vs. 46.) The average age of Italian victims is 81, even given the high mortality rate. They also don't have China's flexibility to erect new facilities on an emergency basis, and don't have the industrial capacity to ramp up production of supplies as does China. The health care system in Italy is now in a state of collapse, and they're having to triage patients, frankly leaving many to die in favor of saving those who can be saved. This is also greatly increasing the mortality rate.

Note too that even according to China, as of 20 February the mortality rate in Wuhan was 5.8%, much closer to Italy's. The 3.8% figure was nationwide.

So to an extent, comparing mortality rates between the two countries is apples and oranges. Different populations, different situations. South Korea, which has been extremely proactive in testing and treatment, has a mortality rate of less than 1%.

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24 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

For me the most fascinating thing is seeing the numbers coming out of Italy. 167 dead yesterday. 196 today. That’s a 6.6% death rate. I think Italy’s data gives us a clearer insight into the true virulence of this disease and suggests Wuhan’s numbers weren’t entirely accurate/honest. I don’t see how one city with overwhelmed hospitals could keep its rate between 3% and 4% but the whole of Italy can’t. Note I’m just talking about death rate here. 

I suspect Italy's apparent higher death rate is a result of Italy not having tested as many people. There may well be many more infected in Italy that have not been tested yet.

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26 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

For me the most fascinating thing is seeing the numbers coming out of Italy. 167 dead yesterday. 196 today. That’s a 6.6% death rate. Wuhan, epicentre of the outbreak and worst hit region, only reported a one-day toll that high once, when it changed the way it records deaths. I think Italy’s data gives us a clearer insight into the true virulence of this disease and suggests Wuhan’s numbers weren’t entirely accurate/honest. I don’t see how one city with overwhelmed hospitals could keep its rate between 3% and 4% but the whole of Italy can’t. Note I’m just talking about death rate here. China may have done a good job containing the spread, but that shouldn’t make much of a difference on the death rate percentage.

10 x the actual numbers reported by Wuhan/Hubei was the general consensus.   Even the local Wuhan official admitted that they couldn't count people who died at home.   And there are many video evidence (thanks to smartphones) of dead bodies being picked up from apartments, off streets, etc.. before the Chinese government shut off the internet.   

In the early days of Iran's outbreak, QOM local official reported 50 dead for his region.   On the same day, the entire Iranian death reported was in single digit.   Wuhan = Iran when it comes to the numbers.

I trust the Italian and Korean numbers.   Other country numbers in suspect: Egypt, Turkey, Vietnam, just to name a few.

Japan is a bit strange.   They have a strict guideline to qualify for COVID 19 testing, hence, higher death rate than Korea who has been testing every suspect. 

Going back to the topic, as the time of making the decision to hold the basho or not, there were less than 10 infected in Osaka.  Now, it is closer to 100.  If the decision was to be made today, would the basho still happen?   

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Posted (edited)

For those on here still wondering if this coronavirus thing is serious or not, the NBA has just suspended its season after a player, Rudy Gobert of Utah Jazz, has tested postiive.

Edited by Kaninoyama

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5 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

For those on here still wondering if this coronavirus thing is serious or not, the NBA has just suspended its season after a player, Rudy Gobert of Utah Jazz, has tested postiive.

Tom Hanks too

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The annual Houston (Texas ) Livestock & Rodeo, the biggest one in the world, has been cancelled after it started last week.  Last year, its profit was $227 million dollars.

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Trump has suspended all travel between the EU and US for 30 days. Doesn't include UK.

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27 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Trump has suspended all travel between the EU and US for 30 days. Doesn't include UK.

Not quite true as I believe US citizens can return from EU albeit how not known atm.

 

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Just now, specialweek 2 said:

Not quite true as I believe US citizens can return from EU albeit how not known atm.

 

Sorry, just thought that was a given. They can't actually stop a US citizen from returning. All they can do legally is quarantine them when they get here.

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32 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Trump has suspended all travel between the EU and US for 30 days. Doesn't include UK.

All countries outside Schengen are exempt.

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14 minutes ago, wolfgangho said:

trump is a fool

i hope he gets the Virus instead of being reelected

Knock off the political talk. 

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On 07/03/2020 at 19:43, Benihana said:

If you want to follow the outbreak more closely, i recommend you this platform:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Their sources are WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC and DXY. You probably won't find any better global overview..

Just wanted to say thanks for the link to this map - amazing resource.

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16 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

For me the most fascinating thing is seeing the numbers coming out of Italy. 167 dead yesterday. 196 today. That’s a 6.6% death rate. 

That makes me suspect that there are a lot more cases than have been detected or reported.

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51 minutes ago, Sue said:

That makes me suspect that there are a lot more cases than have been detected or reported.

Indeed, the differences in reported numbers between countries may be largely due to differences in testing.

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9 hours ago, Morty said:

Just wanted to say thanks for the link to this map - amazing resource.

The one I frequent is this ->   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/    It has a lot of interesting details.

I am afraid that Japan''s number appears to be entering the exponential growth stage.  If this continues, the next basho will be in jeopardy.   

FYI, only China & Korea's new infection rates arae in a declining stage.   All other major countries' numbers are accelerating. 

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41 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

I am afraid that Japan''s number appears to be entering the exponential growth stage.  If this continues, the next basho will be in jeopardy.   

With exponential growth, nearly everybody would have caught the virus by May, and everything could proceed as usual.

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30 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

With exponential growth, nearly everybody would have caught the virus by May, and everything could proceed as usual.

Among the countries I've been following, Japan seems to have been doing a really good job of flattening out the curve. Not a big surprise, given the cultural acceptance of mask-wearing and generally following prescribed behaviors. Flattening the curve helps in terms of access to hospital beds and other medical needs, but also stretches out the length of time that significant cases are being reported. There's also the issue of re-infection, which is worrisome, but which we should also know more about in the next month or two.

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28 minutes ago, Kaminariyuki said:

Among the countries I've been following, Japan seems to have been doing a really good job of flattening out the curve. Not a big surprise, given the cultural acceptance of mask-wearing and generally following prescribed behaviors. Flattening the curve helps in terms of access to hospital beds and other medical needs, but also stretches out the length of time that significant cases are being reported. There's also the issue of re-infection, which is worrisome, but which we should also know more about in the next month or two.

Accurately put.   I am actually very impressed by how Japanese people have kept the virus under control.   If they can hang on until the warm weather season (there is some evidence that warm weather countries are fairing better) starts, that would be fantastic.   As for future basho, if it is canceled, it would be b/c the virus would have spread to the wrestlers.   Given the nature of the sport (close contact, living together, chanko, ...), any infection can lead to the cancellation.

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Posted (edited)

March Madness (American NCAA College Basketball tournament) is canceled. No big surprise, I suppose. In basketball this will be the year without champions.

Edited by Kaminariyuki

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Posted (edited)

Arsenal’s manager Mikel Arteta has been confirmed to have the virus, which has resulted in the team going into quarantine. Their games are off and the Premier League in general is now at risk of cancellation (as, frankly, it should be anyway).

Correction: Their games aren’t yet cancelled officially and the club is reviewing its options, but you’d think with the first-team players in isolation there isn’t much they can do about the weekend game.

Edited by Eikokurai

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XFL has cancelled its season, as well as the NCAA Division I wrestling championships have been cancelled after originally only going to be held with family members in attendance.

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