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Kaminariyuki

General Corona Banter

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I think all this media frenesi about  cv19 have more relation with the US-China economic war than with the virus itself. I doubt that they will cancel the Haru basho.

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2 hours ago, Kuroyama said:

There isn't really a question. The main difference between COVID-19 and the seasonal flu is that it's not a flu. Influenza is caused by a different sort of virus.

As far as whether a global pandemic will result, it appears to be highly contagious in the same way a cold or flu might be and can be carried asymptomatically for a week or longer. Individuals can be spreading the disease well before they're aware they're infected. As we've seen in Wuhan, once it reaches a population it's capable of infecting numbers of people on an exponential trend. This is not inevitable, I think, and transmission can be substantially reduced by ordinary hygiene such as regular hand washing, but it would be foolish to pretend there's no risk.

"When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive.
If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done."

-Nassim Taleb, Author, Black Swan

Maybe this will never rise to the level of full-blown pandemic and the skeptics will have an "I-told-you-so moment" at the expense of the paranoid. I would be thrilled with that result.

But maybe also, if it doesn't become the pandemic some of us fear, it was because of the measures viewed by many as paranoid and excessive now being taken.

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9 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Today the Japanese ministry of health admitted their tests per day were not 3800 as previously stated but actually 900. Samples sent in from around the country may be refused testing due to lack of human resources.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200227/k10012303331000.html?utm_int=word_contents_list-items_107&word_result=新型コロナウイルス

That is terrible.   Japanese people are ok with this?   This does not make sense.  (Thinkingindepth...)

Back to the topic ... it is up to 4 infected in Osaka.   I was wishing for the crowd-less basho but it appears even that is no longer an option.

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Epidemic of epic proportions. Crowded Tokyo with its 11 million and how many affected? I'm pretty sure a very low percentage of people are taking the suggested full measures of hygiene at the moment. Forgive me for being suspicious.

Edited by Kintamayama

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6 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

But maybe also, if it doesn't become the pandemic some of us fear, it was because of the measures viewed by many as paranoid and excessive now being taken.

What measures exactly are being taken? Public events and schools are closed. For a few days now. I thought this killer epidemic takes 14 days to appear.  I don't think anything is excessive when there is a real threat. This is not a real threat. We'll know in a month for sure. Other than the stricken area, where something is terribly wrong, the headlines screaming "ONE CASE IN DENMARK" and some such idiocy are only good for inciting panic. 

Edited by Kintamayama
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13 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Epidemic of epic proportions. Crowded Tokyo with its 11 million and how many affected? I'm pretty sure a very low percentage of people are taking the suggested full measures of hygiene at the moment. Forgive me for being suspicious.

I don't see anyone in this forum saying the epidemic of epic proportions.   I have been gleaming Japanese news and the media is very calm about it.   Some people's claim about media blowing this way out of proportion is unjustified.    If anything, Japanese media is strangely not covering enough about COVID 19.   But I beg to differ that things are under control in Japan.   Outwardly, it is under control with only 200+ land cases so far but the daily infected rate is now in 20+ a day instead of 10+ a day just a week ago.  It is on the wrong trend.  If you have been tracking China, Korea, Italy, and Iran's COVID 19 situation, you would know the thing can explode in a matter of weeks.   We will know in a week or two if Japan's infection increase rate will go exponential.   I hope it does not but I am not as optimistic as you are.   

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5 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

 you would know the thing can explode in a matter of weeks.   

Explode? How many people in all worldwide were affected? 

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25 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Explode? How many people in all worldwide were affected? 

How many will make you happy?    Unhappy?   

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24 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

How many will make you happy?    Unhappy?   

Happiness has nowt to do with it. To be brutally honest, the planet would benefit enormously from a virus with a 90%-plus mortality rate. Corona virus ain't it. Armageddon postponed again...

---

I was much younger and more gullible when the AIDS/HIV scare hit the British press in a big way in 1986, a totally untreatable, (primarily) sexually transmitted retrovirus that destroyed your immune system and caused a very unpleasant lingering death. It was horrifying. It even forced people to start talking openly about sex and sexual matters on prime time TV, which in the sexually hung-up UK was astonishing!

Yet now, people with HIV can look forward to a long life thanks to new drugs (in developed countries at least). 

"It would have worked, too, if it weren't for those pesky, meddling scientists!" grumbled Mother Nature as she turned backed to her drawing board.

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24 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

Happiness has nowt to do with it. To be brutally honest, the planet would benefit enormously from a virus with a 90%-plus mortality rate. Corona virus ain't it. Armageddon postponed again...

---

I was much younger and more gullible when the AIDS/HIV scare hit the British press in a big way in 1986, a totally untreatable, (primarily) sexually transmitted retrovirus that destroyed your immune system and caused a very unpleasant lingering death. It was horrifying. It even forced people to start talking openly about sex and sexual matters on prime time TV, which in the sexually hung-up UK was astonishing!

Yet now, people with HIV can look forward to a long life thanks to new drugs (in developed countries at least). 

"It would have worked, too, if it weren't for those pesky, meddling scientists!" grumbled Mother Nature as she turned backed to her drawing board.

Any virus with a 90% mortality rate wouldn’t make its way around the planet most likely. It would kill its hosts before they had a chance to travel and transmit it. Unless of course they can engineer one to kill very slowly.

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1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

Any virus with a 90% mortality rate wouldn’t make its way around the planet most likely. It would kill its hosts before they had a chance to travel and transmit it. Unless of course they can engineer one to kill very slowly.

That's a bit wrong. The rate of lethality isn't related to how fast a virus spreads.

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4 hours ago, robnplunder said:

How many will make you happy?    Unhappy?   

Just the facts, just the facts. Where does happy come in here? I want to see the "explosion". Maybe, as we are now being warned, it will come soon, but it certainly hasn't come yet. Every death is terrible. 

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2 hours ago, Benihana said:

That's a bit wrong. The rate of lethality isn't related to how fast a virus spreads.

If the virus kills in a few days after infection, it will need another host to help it to transmit.

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Just now, Dapeng said:

If the virus kills in a few days after infection, it will need another host to help it to transmit.

That's not the point. HIV had a 100% lethality in the beginning, but it spread around the globe. Slowly, but it did. And even if a virus kills in a few days, it will spread around the globe if it is highly transmittable, the hosts live in a crowded area and don't know they are infected, like it is with corona.

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8 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

If the virus kills in a few days after infection, it will need another host to help it to transmit.

A deadly virus with a very long asymptomatic but infectious incubation period can spread widely (e.g. HIV, which has an incubation period measured in years).

Edit: Ah, Benihana beat me to the same point by seconds!

Edited by RabidJohn

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3 hours ago, Benihana said:

That's a bit wrong. The rate of lethality isn't related to how fast a virus spreads.

Okay, in the case of sth like HIV then yes, that’s true, but I got the sense we were talking about the sort of virus that sweeps across the globe faster than we can learn to live with it, causing an international health emergency, not some slow burner virus without a cure. As you say, they’ve already existed and we’re still here (because HIV isn’t contagious and spread slowly enough for science to catch up).

Edited by Eikokurai

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https://hazard.yahoo.co.jp/article/20200207

(Click on the upper left corner area to see the latest numbers and graph)

The first time that Japan's official new daily land cases reached 40.   5 (+1) total in Osaka.   The graph has started its steep upward trend I am afraid.   

Edited by robnplunder

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17 minutes ago, Karasukurai said:

This virus (just like flu) seems to cause deaths in the vulnerable, especially older people. I'm not sure if things have changed recently but it has appeared to me that the Sumo 'live audience' has been traditionally quite elderly. Without sounding too flippant, if this basho goes ahead and there is a problem, tickets might be easier to source in May as the JSA might have just killed off its paying audience. Just a thought, albeit a bad one.

I apologize to all of you whom I have undoubtedly offended!  I am 71 years old and this post struck me as hilarious.  Of course, I have a very dark sense of humor!

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12 minutes ago, sumojoann said:

I apologize to all of you whom I have undoubtedly offended!  I am 71 years old and this post struck me as hilarious.  Of course, I have a very dark sense of humor!

Not at all, not at all!  This sounds like a fine, Modest Proposal.

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20 minutes ago, sumojoann said:

I apologize to all of you whom I have undoubtedly offended!  I am 71 years old and this post struck me as hilarious.  Of course, I have a very dark sense of humor!

I think it was a funny post, too.   

One of the sad things about the basho cancellation (I am now 100% sure) is that we could see less of Hakuho who is about 70 years old in sumo years.  (:-)  no offense to Hak worshippers)

Edited by robnplunder
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Another intelligent effort to control the spread of the virus.

Edited by Asojima
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29 minutes ago, Asojima said:

Another intelligent effort to control the spread of the virus.

Isn't a year's supply of Corona Beer one of the gifts the Yusho winner gets?

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13 hours ago, robnplunder said:

I don't see anyone in this forum saying the epidemic of epic proportions.   I have been gleaming Japanese news and the media is very calm about it.   Some people's claim about media blowing this way out of proportion is unjustified.    If anything, Japanese media is strangely not covering enough about COVID 19.   But I beg to differ that things are under control in Japan.   Outwardly, it is under control with only 200+ land cases so far but the daily infected rate is now in 20+ a day instead of 10+ a day just a week ago.  It is on the wrong trend.  If you have been tracking China, Korea, Italy, and Iran's COVID 19 situation, you would know the thing can explode in a matter of weeks.   We will know in a week or two if Japan's infection increase rate will go exponential.   I hope it does not but I am not as optimistic as you are.   

Please stop saying this. Those of us who live in Japan know this is utterly untrue as the media here has been covering this extensively since mid January. There is nothing "calm" about the reporting but then again it is not reporting wild speculation either. In certain cases some western media I follow have been reporting inaccurately and there have certainly been stories spreading disinformation such as this was a man made virus which escaped a Chinese military facility. You need look no further than how this situation is being politicized in the US to see how dangerous this can be as people begin to trust nothing or only reports that fit their own narratives. So the claim that some media are blowing it out of proportion, mainly through wild speculation, or reporting things that are untrue is justified. 

You also cannot look at China, Korea, Italy, and Iran and then extrapolate how it will progress in other countries. Each country has their own particular set of circumstances that led to those outbreaks. Could it happen in other countries? Yes, however even then that doesn't mean an increased rate of infection will progress the same. 

Again for those truly interested in how the virus is progressing I suggest that you only rely on reliable medical sources such as the WHO, the CDC(although that may be more difficult in the future as all statements will now have to be vetted by the Vice President's office) and other governmental public health authorities.

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I would argue that the reason the virus isn't spreading like wildfire is because of all of the quarantine processes that have been implemented everywhere it has been identified. They are designed to stop the spread and they are working. They also worked for Ebola, SARs, even HIV etc etc etc. Quarantine procedures are based on working out how the disease spreads and addressing that (eg condoms and clean needles for HIV, which worked brilliantly). If you want to see how COVID-19 spreads without appropriate quarantine processes in place to stop it then the Diamond Princess is a prime example. Holding the basho (unfortunately) goes against basic quarantine procedures. 

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