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Kaminariyuki

General Corona Banter

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4 hours ago, Kaminariyuki said:

The WHO Situation Report today showed only 7 new cases in Japan, very promising, if true.

It was 18 total, including 11 infected Japanese people who disembarked from Diamond Princess.   Japan can count those Japanese as "Diamond Princess."   FYI, China and some other countries count Diamond Princess number as part of Japan's.   If I recall correctly, there were about 1000 Japanese people who disembarked from the cruise ship.   Their nationality is not "Diamond Princess."  ;-)

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34 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

It was 18 total, including 11 infected Japanese people who disembarked from Diamond Princess.   Japan can count those Japanese as "Diamond Princess."   FYI, China and some other countries count Diamond Princess number as part of Japan's.   If I recall correctly, there were about 1000 Japanese people who disembarked from the cruise ship.   Their nationality is not "Diamond Princess."  ;-)

The Diamond Princess passengers (and any other cruise ship) are counted as “International conveyance” on the Wikipedia page. Not sure where that descriptor comes from. WHO?

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NHK now reporting that a woman in her 40s in Osaka who tested negative for the virus a month ago and was released has now been found to have the virus. That could mean she was going around the city spreading it unchecked, for 2-4 weeks (the newsflash is vague on when exactly she went back to hospital).

Edited by Eikokurai

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14 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

NHK now reporting that a woman in her 40s in Osaka who tested negative for the virus a month ago and was released has now been found to have the virus. That could mean she was going around the city spreading it unchecked, for 2-4 weeks (the newsflash is vague on when exactly she went back to hospital).

 

That's another reason to cancel the basho.   There are people walking around in Osaka who could be infected.  

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Disclaimer: This post is not on whether the basho will be held or not. I have no idea however, I would like to address what i see as misinformation even if it is unintentional. Again this is my opinion but this is a serious epidemic and misleading information can do a lot more harm than good.

On 26/02/2020 at 03:12, Dapeng said:

The actual number (20,000?) of death will never be known to public. China only counts those that were confirmed with nucleic acid test kits, which has very poor sensitive (~30% only) and multiple tests are usually needed to come to a diagnosis and were in severe short supply until mid Feb. Many victims died before a diagnosis.

People do not have to believe what the NTD says, but from the reaction of the Chinese government to lock down or semi-lock down 80 cities, everyone should know how severe the epidemic can be. And from what happened on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, everyone should know how infectious the virus can be.

Another convincing sign of the seriousness of the epidemic: the Chinese National Congress annual meetings, commonly called the "Two Meetings" that are supposed to be held in the first quarter (usually on March 5) of the year according to Chines Constitution, are postponed indefinitely. Postpone of the "Two Meetings" rarely happened, even not in 2003 during the SARS epidemic.   

Nucleic acid amplification is used in testing for COVID-19 to separate small quantities of RNA whose genome is then sequenced so it is not a test in and of itself. I cannot state what the sensitivity of the test is however I am certain that it is not 30% as that would indicate that it is only identifying 30% of true cases. In tests such as these the sensitivity (identification as positive of a true positive sample) is usually in the high 90% range and specificity (true negative samples are identified as negative) is also in the 90's. If you have information contrary to this please post the source so others can access it. Also samples that do not meet the criteria for positive or negative based on genome sequencing are classified indeterminate and sent to a reference lab for analysis.Again, you can find the laboratory protocol for test for COVID-19 at the WHO website. The rest of this post simply states that the epidemic is severe which I think we can all agree on.

2 hours ago, robnplunder said:

It was 18 total, including 11 infected Japanese people who disembarked from Diamond Princess.   Japan can count those Japanese as "Diamond Princess."   FYI, China and some other countries count Diamond Princess number as part of Japan's.   If I recall correctly, there were about 1000 Japanese people who disembarked from the cruise ship.   Their nationality is not "Diamond Princess."  ;-)

The latest WHO Situation Report #37 was published February 25th and indicated 7 new cases in Japan. All infections for those on the Diamond Princess are classified as "International Conveyance" by the WHO. There were no additional infections reported for those patients in the new report. In the report you will also notice that all cases of International Conveyance (eg those aboard the Diamond Princess) are listed as "Site of transmission under investigation". So you are correct that their nationality is not "Diamond Princess" however they are currently NOT counted under any nationality as it is unclear where they acquired the infection. The countries listed are not nationalities but people identified as infected in that country. So, there were over 3,000 people onboard the Diamond Princess of whom 691 of all nationalities were identified as infected.

 

2 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

NHK now reporting that a woman in her 40s in Osaka who tested negative for the virus a month ago and was released has now been found to have the virus. That could mean she was going around the city spreading it unchecked, for 2-4 weeks (the newsflash is vague on when exactly she went back to hospital).

This is correct however the woman was not going all over the city and remained at home. There seems to be some confusion on how Japan is managing potentially infected people as someone else mentioned that it is odd that only hospitalized patients have been counted as infected. In fact patients who have recovered and those who may have come into contact with an infected patient are asked to confine themselves to home and are monitored. They are contacted every day and asked about their condition as well as their temperature. This woman was monitored and after displaying symptoms was asked to return to the hospital where she received another test which confirmed she was infected. In this case she did not receive a genetic test when she was originally discharged to see if the virus remained in her system so it is unknown if she reacquired the infection or if it never left. It seems likely that in the future all "recovered" patients with be required to have a PCR test before being discharged.

This post is already too long but I would urge everyone to be careful of what you read and if you want to speculate make sure that others know it is only your opinion. In a situation such as this people need accurate information that can help them and those around them. Kaminariyuki has excellent advice in wearing a mask and frequent hand washing. As many westerners do not wear masks, sneezing or coughing into your elbow provides the best protection for others.

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27 minutes ago, Ginkitsune said:

Nucleic acid amplification is used in testing for COVID-19 to separate small quantities of RNA whose genome is then sequenced so it is not a test in and of itself. I cannot state what the sensitivity of the test is however I am certain that it is not 30% as that would indicate that it is only identifying 30% of true cases. In tests such as these the sensitivity (identification as positive of a true positive sample) is usually in the high 90% range and specificity (true negative samples are identified as negative) is also in the 90's. If you have information contrary to this please post the source so others can access it. Also samples that do not meet the criteria for positive or negative based on genome sequencing are classified indeterminate and sent to a reference lab for analysis.Again, you can find the laboratory protocol for test for COVID-19 at the WHO website. The rest of this post simply states that the epidemic is severe which I think we can all agree on.

The "nucleic acid testing kit" that I mentioned does not do amplification and sequencing, for which most hospitals do not have the machines to perform. However, by using the "testing kit", the lab tech just need to extract RNA from the sample and hybridize with a cDAN sequence of the virus. In many patients, usually multiple testings were needed for a diagnosis. It's said that the most recent testing kit has much better sensitivity. 

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27 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

The "nucleic acid testing kit" that I mentioned does not do amplification and sequencing, for which most hospitals do not have the machines to perform. However, by using the "testing kit", the lab tech just need to extract RNA from the sample and hybridize with a cDAN sequence of the virus. In many patients, usually multiple testings were needed for a diagnosis. It's said that the most recent testing kit has much better sensitivity. 

Thanks for the clarification. So it would appear that if anything, the primary impact would have been to undercount the number of infected in China, perhaps significantly. Given that the raw mortality rate within China is currently 3.48% while outside of China it is 1.5% this would make sense however it will likely be many months until it can be adequately investigated.

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Still under control, more or less, even though the word "pandemic" is being thrown around abundantly. Every death hurts, but numbers -wise, it's not multiplying and leaving thousands dead in the streets of the world. I still remain optimistic that this will go away in March. And a small reminder regarding masks- their original purpose is to protect people from your cold/infection, and not the opposite. It does not protect you from someone else's disease. I hear there are new masks that are ultra-protective etc, but I highly doubt they are avilable at your local pharmacist. Unless you want to walk around with a WW2 gas mask, which is OK by me.

Edited by Kintamayama
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24 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Still under control, more or less, even though the word "pandemic" is being thrown around abundantly. Every death hurts, but numbers -wise, it's not multiplying and leaving thousands dead in the streets of the world. I still remain optimistic that this will go away in March. And a small reminder regarding masks- their original purpose is to protect people from your cold/infection, and not the opposite. It does not protect you from someone else's disease. I hear there are new masks that are ultra-protective etc, but I highly doubt they are avilable at your local pharmacist. Unless you want to walk around with a WW2 gas mask, which is OK by me.

Aren’t masks supposed to do both? The outside is waterproof to shield against sneezes etc from others while the inside is absorbent to soak up your own. That’s why medical staff wear them. They don’t generally go to work when they’re sick.

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1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

Aren’t masks supposed to do both? The outside is waterproof to shield against sneezes etc from others while the inside is absorbent to soak up your own. That’s why medical staff wear them. They don’t generally go to work when they’re sick.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/coronavirus-do-face-masks-work-stop-virus-spread-symptoms-usa-outbreak-china-a9359336.html

Just a random one. Serious medical staff when dealing with a serious biological/viral threat wear the whole garb from head to toe. In movies, masks are worn in serious situations. Masks are a joke when it comes to seriously attempting to defend oneself from a real threat, not a media panic. When it comes to a common cold and you're out and about, you wear one to protect others, not to be protected, otherwise everyone in Japan would be wearing one all of the time.

Edited by Kintamayama

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People wearing masks religiously have gotten the virus.   It is also known that COVID 19 can be transmitted through eyes.   Chinese has confirmed that virus is aerosol.  I've seen people in Wuhan wearing multiple masks at a time, wearing goggles, and gloves.   I think those people have superior survival genes :-).

I have been tracking Japan's daily new infection numbers.   Instead of about 10 a day, it is starting to go 20+ a day.   It is beginning to accelerate.   Personally, I think the sumo should go on without the crowd just to get people to get their minds off of the virus. 

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All primary schools are now closed until March 13. Already there was spring break in this timing but it has been expanded to 2 weeks.

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6 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Aren’t masks supposed to do both? The outside is waterproof to shield against sneezes etc from others while the inside is absorbent to soak up your own. That’s why medical staff wear them. They don’t generally go to work when they’re sick.

While it's true that a hepafilter is necessary, as well as other gear, to have near-prevention, my Japanese friends who are doctors recommended wearing a mask as partial protection. I've never been a mask-wearer but may wear mine on trains and crowded places, as well as on the plane ride back home in a week from Europe. Also recommended is regular hand washing.

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1 hour ago, Kaminariyuki said:

While it's true that a hepafilter is necessary, as well as other gear, to have near-prevention, my Japanese friends who are doctors recommended wearing a mask as partial protection. I've never been a mask-wearer but may wear mine on trains and crowded places, as well as on the plane ride back home in a week from Europe. Also recommended is regular hand washing.

Also recommended is wearing disposal gloves.  

What I learned about COVID 19 since Wuhan closed the city borders is that this thing cannot be stopped.   China has taken many draconian measures only a Communist country with unlimited authority and resources can do.   And it has now a handle on the virus except for Wuhan.  Japan, I am afraid, has entered the exponential growth stage of the "infected."   It'd better get used to sumo without crowd b/e I don't think the virus will go away until the weather gets hot and humid.  

 

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We’ve had a guy returning from Italy diagnosed. He was moving about freely for a few days and in close contact with his family and friends. Put into quarantine, family tests negative Or maybe the tests here are inadequate and they're all infected. No masks, no nothing. His kids went to school for a few days as well, before they were quarantined too. I'm guessing at least 300 people came in contact with the virus at least. Going by what I've been reading, they should all be dead by sunrise. I bet not a single one of them will even be affected, though. But we shall see. I also see that the WHO has upped the level of hysteria by a few notches, dragging the Americans and the UK behind them into scaring the crap out of their citizens, without a single infected person so far.

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23 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

We’ve had a guy returning from Italy diagnosed. He was moving about freely for a few days and in close contact with his family and friends. Put into quarantine, family tests negative Or maybe the tests here are inadequate and they're all infected. No masks, no nothing. His kids went to school for a few days as well, before they were quarantined too. I'm guessing at least 300 people came in contact with the virus at least. Going by what I've been reading, they should all be dead by sunrise. I bet not a single one of them will even be affected, though. But we shall see. I also see that the WHO has upped the level of hysteria by a few notches, dragging the Americans and the UK behind them into scaring the crap out of their citizens, without a single infected person so far.

So, I know you're being sarcastic, but seemingly the virus is quite contagious. The interesting, and somewhat confounding part, is that many patients are asymptomatic, they exhibit less or sometimes no outward symptoms. There's a continuing question about how contagious these folks are, but it stands to reason that if you're sneezing or coughing you're creating much more of the aerosol that we understand is the main infection pathway. An interesting bit of news yesterday: a lady who had been cleared of the virus in Japan has now been found to be reinfected. Nice, huh?

Time will tell whether this is a terrible pandemic or just a scare, as some suggest. Since I'm still traveling tomorrow I guess I can't describe myself as overly cautious, but I did bail early on both China and Japan, so I'm not completely flippant either. 

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Today the Japanese ministry of health admitted their tests per day were not 3800 as previously stated but actually 900. Samples sent in from around the country may be refused testing due to lack of human resources.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200227/k10012303331000.html?utm_int=word_contents_list-items_107&word_result=新型コロナウイルス

Edited by Tsuchinoninjin

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1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

We’ve had a guy returning from Italy diagnosed. He was moving about freely for a few days and in close contact with his family and friends. Put into quarantine, family tests negative Or maybe the tests here are inadequate and they're all infected. No masks, no nothing. His kids went to school for a few days as well, before they were quarantined too. I'm guessing at least 300 people came in contact with the virus at least. Going by what I've been reading, they should all be dead by sunrise. I bet not a single one of them will even be affected, though. But we shall see. I also see that the WHO has upped the level of hysteria by a few notches, dragging the Americans and the UK behind them into scaring the crap out of their citizens, without a single infected person so far.

There seem to be "superspreader" who can spread the mass in a short time.  Most others may not.   Some can be infected and heal themselves without taking medicine.  So, it is possible that things could be ok in the above case.   One hopes.

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1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

We’ve had a guy returning from Italy diagnosed. He was moving about freely for a few days and in close contact with his family and friends. Put into quarantine, family tests negative Or maybe the tests here are inadequate and they're all infected. No masks, no nothing. His kids went to school for a few days as well, before they were quarantined too. I'm guessing at least 300 people came in contact with the virus at least. Going by what I've been reading, they should all be dead by sunrise. I bet not a single one of them will even be affected, though. But we shall see. I also see that the WHO has upped the level of hysteria by a few notches, dragging the Americans and the UK behind them into scaring the crap out of their citizens, without a single infected person so far.

I feel like the people who are dismissing what has happened out of hand should feel very lucky they are in a position to do so. This is like any other natural disaster. When a tsunami destroys a city, people don't go 'oh there was no tsunami here what's the big deal?'. Why people are getting backlash for being placed in an unfortunate situation is a total mystery to me. 

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4 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

I feel like the people who are dismissing what has happened out of hand should feel very lucky they are in a position to do so. This is like any other natural disaster. When a tsunami destroys a city, people don't go 'oh there was no tsunami here what's the big deal?'. Why people are getting backlash for being placed in an unfortunate situation is a total mystery to me. 

+1.   Another very important thing about this is that like other big natural disasters, the economic and financial impact on this will be devastated, especially, for the less developed countries.   

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2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

We’ve had a guy returning from Italy diagnosed. He was moving about freely for a few days and in close contact with his family and friends. Put into quarantine, family tests negative Or maybe the tests here are inadequate and they're all infected. No masks, no nothing. His kids went to school for a few days as well, before they were quarantined too. I'm guessing at least 300 people came in contact with the virus at least. Going by what I've been reading, they should all be dead by sunrise. I bet not a single one of them will even be affected, though. But we shall see. I also see that the WHO has upped the level of hysteria by a few notches, dragging the Americans and the UK behind them into scaring the crap out of their citizens, without a single infected person so far.

When it comes to sumo I’ll listen to anything you have to say, but on this one I’m afraid I’m going with the WHO and its team of epidemiologists. Also, I’m not sure what you mean by “without a single infected person so far”. The US and UK both have multiple cases, including at least one in America who caught it from an unknown source. As for the guy in Israel, if he could pick it up in Milan, why is it such a leap to imagine people could have picked it up from him?

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1 hour ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

I feel like the people who are dismissing what has happened out of hand should feel very lucky they are in a position to do so. This is like any other natural disaster. When a tsunami destroys a city, people don't go 'oh there was no tsunami here what's the big deal?'. Why people are getting backlash for being placed in an unfortunate situation is a total mystery to me. 

Nobody is dismissing what has happened out of hand. What has happened has happened. The question is what exactly happened and how it is essentially different from the regular flu that takes its yearly toll. I think it is another strain, the difference being there is no treatment yet. That fact in itself doesn't guarantee a worldwide pandemic. It causes uneasiness, but  setting the  epicenter aside, is there any sign of a worldwide catastrophe so far? Even a remote one? And the comparison of an infectious flu to a one hit tsunami is.. well.. 

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3 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

And the comparison of an infectious flu to a one hit tsunami is.. well.. 

I think the key takeaway here is that a tsunami is more or less predictable. We know where the fault lines are and we understand the behaviour of tsunamis pretty well. We can’t predict the timing but we know the east coast of Japan is more likely to suffer one than the west coast of Ireland and what the impact is likely to be, so we know where to take precautions and what those precautions should be. A virus is not predictable. I’m four hours from Wuhan on a direct train in a city with a substantial Hubei expat population but so far apparently there are no cases in my area.* (I have three coworkers from Hubei, including one whose parents are quarantined in Wuhan and my line manager, whose old school teacher died in Xianning from the virus.) Meanwhile, there are cases in my home country a 12-hour flight and a border crossing away. A school and a university in my hometown have both had scares and an hour down the road a doctor’s surgery closed because of a confirmed case. The virus could very easily (and in fact has) make its way to countries not equipped to deal with it. The WHO has to consider the entire world, not just developed countries with good hospitals, well-trained doctors and organizations like the CDC. 


*By “area” I mean within 1-2km or so of where I live. Nearest case is said to be about 4km from me.

Edited by Eikokurai
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2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

The question is what exactly happened and how it is essentially different from the regular flu that takes its yearly toll. I think it is another strain, the difference being there is no treatment yet. That fact in itself doesn't guarantee a worldwide pandemic. It causes uneasiness, but  setting the  epicenter aside, is there any sign of a worldwide catastrophe so far? Even a remote one? And the comparison of an infectious flu to a one hit tsunami is.. well.. 

There isn't really a question. The main difference between COVID-19 and the seasonal flu is that it's not a flu. Influenza is caused by a different sort of virus.

As far as whether a global pandemic will result, it appears to be highly contagious in the same way a cold or flu might be and can be carried asymptomatically for a week or longer. Individuals can be spreading the disease well before they're aware they're infected. As we've seen in Wuhan, once it reaches a population it's capable of infecting numbers of people on an exponential trend. This is not inevitable, I think, and transmission can be substantially reduced by ordinary hygiene such as regular hand washing, but it would be foolish to pretend there's no risk.

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