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Kaminariyuki

General Corona Banter

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46 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

FYI, other countries had no problem ramping up their test kits and processing power.   Some have opted to import given the urgency. 

Patently false. Name one country with a population over 30m that is not suffering from lack of testing. Germany is only now catching up with number of tests performed and is currently at the limit of it's laboratory capacity according to a leading virologist. You can import tests but you can't easily import technicians to run manual tests which is why trying to introduce the automated tests has been their focus. Do you really think you can create a system that tests adequately a population of over 120m happens in weeks? You seem to be focusing on what Japan did or is getting wrong while ignoring that every other country is struggling. How is the testing going in the US? They had just as much time as Japan and they are an economic power. 

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53 minutes ago, Ginkitsune said:

Patently false. Name one country with a population over 30m that is not suffering from lack of testing. Germany is only now catching up with number of tests performed and is currently at the limit of it's laboratory capacity according to a leading virologist. You can import tests but you can't easily import technicians to run manual tests which is why trying to introduce the automated tests has been their focus. Do you really think you can create a system that tests adequately a population of over 120m happens in weeks? You seem to be focusing on what Japan did or is getting wrong while ignoring that every other country is struggling. How is the testing going in the US? They had just as much time as Japan and they are an economic power. 

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200402-00000010-jijp-pol.view-000

Japanese government just announced that they can test 9000 tests per day.   It is not a rocket science.  If there is a will, Japan can do it.   They could have done it before but probably didn't feel the need to for various reasons (Olympics, Stupidity, etc).   

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17 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Japanese government just announced that they can test 9000 tests per day.   It is not a rocket science.  If there is a will, Japan can do it.   They could have done it before but probably didn't feel the need to for various reasons (Olympics, Stupidity, etc).

Yeah now that Japan has an automated testing system (which you mentioned previously) they can do a lot more tests per day. You act like they could have developed this in a day or a week. It takes time to design, test, and make these things. You have to be a pretty big conspiracy fan to think limited testing was purposely done because of the Olympics or stupidity (which is pretty offensive). I'm not going to convince you I'm sure but others from around the world may read this baseless speculation and believe it. I hope after reading a little more they don't fall for some conspiracy theory that Japan didn't try to protect its citizens from a global pandemic.

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Please note that when I refer to Japan, sometimes I was referring to Abe whom IMO is following his political instinct and no more.   If I offended any Abe supporters, I apologize.  But you have to admit the man's action on the COVID 19 has been confusing.  Yesterday, he announced giving two cloth made masks per household.   Does he know the cloth made masks are less effective than the masks with filters?  And what about a household with more than two people, when it is time to wash the mask ... ;-)?     It's still better than nothing but it reminds me of Peggy Lee's song - "Is there all there is."  :-)

Anyway, I need to reconnect this thread to the subject line.   No sumo in May.   For the sake of the future basho, go Japan (not Abe)!!!!!

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1 minute ago, sekitori said:

I find it interesting that before and during the Haru basho there was only one instance of someone  related to sumo who ran a fairly high fever for two consecutive days. It's  amazing that no one had any symptoms of corona virus. Considering the widespread prevalence of the virus and the large number of people involved in professional sumo, it looks as of the sumo community dodged a bullet.  I have doubts if they will want to try doing it again in May. 

I found it interesting, too.   It could have been luck but I recall that Osaka then only had a few people who were infected.   I.e, the spread wasn't there at the time. I like to believe the widespread is more of a recent thing like after the big O was officially postponed.   Incredible timing if you ask me.  

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4 hours ago, robnplunder said:

Please note that when I refer to Japan, sometimes I was referring to Abe whom IMO is following his political instinct and no more.   If I offended any Abe supporters, I apologize.  But you have to admit the man's action on the COVID 19 has been confusing.  Yesterday, he announced giving two cloth made masks per household.   Does he know the cloth made masks are less effective than the masks with filters?  And what about a household with more than two people, when it is time to wash the mask ... ;-)?     It's still better than nothing but it reminds me of Peggy Lee's song - "Is there all there is."  :-)

Anyway, I need to reconnect this thread to the subject line.   No sumo in May.   For the sake of the future basho, go Japan (not Abe)!!!!!

depends on the cloth and they certainly are better than surgical masks. 

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Ginkitsune said:

It is remarkable how some have become so knowledgeable about public health, national health systems, and national laboratory systems in a few short weeks. I would like to suggest that anyone who states that the relatively low rate of testing in Japan is a "strategy" has no understanding of Japanese health systems and capabilities or even health systems in general. It would be the same as stating that the lack of testing in California is a "strategy". The lack of testing in Japan has been a lack of capacity, period. Many have been working extensively on this since January but to this point the ability to conduct a large number of automated tests is not possible. It's great to point to South Korea and say why didn't Japan (or any other county for that matter) have a system that could conduct a large volume of tests but the simple fact is that South Korea instituted a system post-SARS that allowed them to do this. Should other countries have done the same? Yes, but they didn't. Again, the limited testing is not a national "strategy" and suggest that it is an intentional strategy is false.

Apraxin is precisely on target that the true impact of Covid-19 will not be known for years, just like the H1N1 virus as the data now is incomplete and will likely never be known exactly. Oh, and before anyone suggests that Japan declined one million free tests from Softbank's CEO (which was later rescinded) the reason is they wouldn't have been able to process them. A lack of laboratory capacity. Japan is in the same shape as a lot of other countries at the moment, uncertainty over how this will progress and trying to figure out the best way to mitigate the impact while preserving human life given the constraints of their medical system, supply chain, and how the epidemic is presenting in their country. I am reluctant to comment further as some will want to believe whatever they want to no matter what. I would simply hope that all will try to comply as best as possible with whatever their local health authorities suggest/demand and keep themselves, their families, and fellow citizens safe.

Yes, blame all on us which tried to get the message out after you wouldn't believe us. And that is a royal 'us'. There were many doctors and health experts warning about this for a very long time. Yes, other countries also failed. I am also unhappy about that. I completely disagree that limited testing isn't an intentional strategy. There is no 'accidental' strategy at a national level. If the government is just winging it then it is unacceptable.

You posted this a while ago how we were too alarmist:

Quote

Just want to state that this as it is incorrect. Even with early treatment some compromised patients will die or have severe comorbidity from the flu  which is why there are high risk groups (infants, elderly, diabetics, etc) who should receive the annual flu vaccine. 

Also the Bloomberg article that has been posted regarding Japan's response to the virus reports the comments of primarily economists who have little expertise commenting on medical issues. The infectious disease physician in the article was commenting solely on conditions onboard the cruise ship. At this time there is still too much unknown to confidently state what is going to occur but based on all recent outbreaks it is highly likely that this will be contained in the near future. To state that the only way to control transmission is to restrict people's movements and gatherings is alarmist although there will likely continue to be restrictions on people who have been in infected areas of China until the outbreak is controlled there and some events may be affected by that like the Tokyo marathon.. As Kintamayama has pointed out there seems to be a little hysteria at this point.

If Japan had actually restricted movement then, we wouldn't have had the current situation in Japan.

Sorry, but if you think the Japanese government is infallible and couldn't have gotten things going and the problem is people worrying too much, that's idiotic. Too many people have this opinion and allows the government to get complacent. The fact is almost every country has more testing capability than Japan other than places with extreme poverty.

It is very simple, this is worse than flu because NOBODY has immunity, so it spread really easily. It was very obvious to us who had a window into the early outbreak areas.

But instead we got shit on for trying to show how bad it was going to be. You were wrong, so now you just shit on us because we're told we are too stupid to understand anything. We're not experts. We can't understand medical literature. It is even more frustrating because the initial people who tried to get the word out have paid dearly for it. And nobody gave a shit and belittled others.

It must feel so care free not to have to worry about this.

Edited by Tsuchinoninjin
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I mean come on, I just got off a call 3 hours ago and they're still shoulder to shoulder in the meeting room. 12 people, many older men with a history of heavy smoking. They're all wearing masks now but they all pull them down when their glasses steam up. In an office building where two cases were identified Monday.

You don't have to 'ramp up' social distancing like testing capability. It can be done overnight.

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1 hour ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

I mean come on, I just got off a call 3 hours ago and they're still shoulder to shoulder in the meeting room. 12 people, many older men with a history of heavy smoking. They're all wearing masks now but they all pull them down when their glasses steam up. In an office building where two cases were identified Monday.

You don't have to 'ramp up' social distancing like testing capability. It can be done overnight.

Wow, that is bad.  One superspreader and everyone around gets it.   Take care.    

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, Ginkitsune said:

It is remarkable how some have become so knowledgeable about public health, national health systems, and national laboratory systems in a few short weeks. I would like to suggest that anyone who states that the relatively low rate of testing in Japan is a "strategy" has no understanding of Japanese health systems and capabilities or even health systems in general. It would be the same as stating that the lack of testing in California is a "strategy". The lack of testing in Japan has been a lack of capacity, period. Many have been working extensively on this since January but to this point the ability to conduct a large number of automated tests is not possible. It's great to point to South Korea and say why didn't Japan (or any other county for that matter) have a system that could conduct a large volume of tests but the simple fact is that South Korea instituted a system post-SARS that allowed them to do this. Should other countries have done the same? Yes, but they didn't. Again, the limited testing is not a national "strategy" and suggest that it is an intentional strategy is false.

Apraxin is precisely on target that the true impact of Covid-19 will not be known for years, just like the H1N1 virus as the data now is incomplete and will likely never be known exactly. Oh, and before anyone suggests that Japan declined one million free tests from Softbank's CEO (which was later rescinded) the reason is they wouldn't have been able to process them. A lack of laboratory capacity. Japan is in the same shape as a lot of other countries at the moment, uncertainty over how this will progress and trying to figure out the best way to mitigate the impact while preserving human life given the constraints of their medical system, supply chain, and how the epidemic is presenting in their country. 

From the 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Japan Wiki:

"The main concern of the Japanese medical establishment was an overcrowding of hospitals by uninfected patients with light cold symptoms who believed that they had COVID-19. Medical representatives claimed that such a panic would strain medical resources and risk exposing those uninfected patients to the disease itself."

And:

"On 17 February, the Ministry of Health released its consultation guidelines (Japanese: 新型コロナウイルス感染症についての相談・受診の目安について) to each of the municipal and prefectural governments and their public health centers.[93] The document instructs doctors and public health nurses who staff the consultation centres to limit consultations to people with the following conditions: (1) cold symptoms and a fever of at least 37.5 Celsius for over four days while taking antipyretic medication; and (2) extreme fatigue and breathing difficulties. The elderly, people with pre-existing conditions, and pregnant women with cold symptoms can receive consultation if they have had them for two days. The guidelines also note that people who are dissatisfied with their consultation results can visit one of the specialized outpatient wards (帰国者・接触者外来) for further talks."

Further:

"After reviewing and discussing the existing data on the disease, the committee stated that universal PCR testing was impossible due to a shortage of testing facilities and providers, and recommended that the government instead limit the application of available test kits to patients that are at a high risk of complications in order to stockpile for a large cluster.  Participants also noted that Japan's medical facilities are vulnerable to "chaos," elaborating that several of the hospital beds and resources in the Tokyo area are already preoccupied with caring for the surge of 700 infected patients from the Diamond Princess. They reiterated their warning that a rush of alarmed uninfected outpatients with light symptoms of the disease could overwhelm hospitals and turn waiting rooms into "breeding grounds" of COVID-19."

The above clearly indicates a strategy to limit testing for two basic purposes: 1) deal with the shortage of testing facilities and providers (as you pointed out); but also 2) to avoid a "rush of alarmed uninfected outpatients with light symptoms of the disease could overwhelm hospitals and turn waiting rooms into "breeding grounds" of COVID-19."

It isn't necessarily an either or situation here.

 

Edited by Kaninoyama

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Nantonoyama said:

If the Natsu basho takes place, it would be the first honbasho to occur across two calendar months since Nagoya 1965.

Day 9 would then end a 4924 streak of hon-basho days taking place on odd-numbered months (day 5 Nagoya 1965 - day 8 Natsu 2020) (4909 if you remove Natsu 2011 as not technically a hon-basho)

We will see when the next two bashos actually take place.  It will depend on Japan lowering the COVID 19 curve fast enough.  Honestly, it does not look possible for the Natsu basho to open even with the two weeks postponement.   After the JSK's announcement, NHK reported 353 new infections, their highest daily tally.  And that is 4th days in a row of breaking the previous day's record.  I still don't think Japan is going the way of Italy but it will take more than a month for Japan to stop the exponential growth, and flatten it enough for the Natsu to be "ready."      I predict the Natsu will be eventually canceled, and hope that Nagoya may be back on its regularly scheduled date.   

In my boxing days, a ref often instructed the fighters at the start with "Protect yourself at all times."   Folks, protect yourselves wherever you are.  This virus is too damn smart to let your guard down.   

Edited by robnplunder
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Tokyo is the worst hit area by far and is home for over 50 beyas.   I say it is a small miracle if no rikishi is infected before and during the basho.   

Japanese are practicing much more social separations now than ever.  Perhaps in 3 weeks, things will turnaround enough to hold the basho.   Maybe.  

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I know of a Japanese girl going to college in South Carolina who went home to NY, where her father was doing business.  When Japan decided to close its borders, they made an emergency 26 hour plane trip to Japan.  She just told me she tested positive for Coronavirus and is in the hospital there.  How complicated the real stories behind the statistics can be!

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

This is what Shibatayama Oyakata said:

"At that point we'd convene a directors' meeting and consider what direction to take. I can't say we'd cancel, but that would also be a possibility."

Another record-breaking day of 368 new infections confirmed. That's 5 days in a row the record is broken.  Tomorrow's numbers may dip a little as I understand that some prefectures don't test on Sunday.   But the number on Monday could end up being close to 500.   The emergency declaration is imminent.   JSK has no choice but to cancel the next basho.    

The basho should be replaced by a video game version.   The rikishi who can make the best use of a joystick will take the yusho.   They will play their matches from the comfort of their homes, stables, and without spectators.  It will be televised of course.  I am betting Abi to take the yusho.  ;-)

Edited by robnplunder
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6 hours ago, Morty said:

 Get ready for the next three or four basho to be cancelled, because that's how long it will be until an effective and widespread vaccine will be available.

I will take one basho at a time but you may be right.  Japan's COVID 19 strategy has failed and they have no choice but to resort to draconian measures.   Every day Japan delays in taking the extraordinary steps to stop the virus, it will add to their eventual death counts.   Japan needs to look no further than Italy, Spain, New York, France, Iran, Wuhan, ....

 

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9 hours ago, Morty said:

Almost every sporting league in the world is shut down until this is over.

And nearly all of them are currently making contingency plans exactly the same way the NSK is, so I'm not sure what your point is here.

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having lower division rikishi in the same building increases the risks too. Sumo is even riskier than football if you think about it since football has a lot of stadiums and not all teams play on one stadium. Unless Tokyo is covid free I would not risk the health of the rikishi, the gyoji, the yobidashi, the nsk judges for a tournament. Everyone delayed to take measures because muh teh economy. The longer we make compromises with this thing the more their "precious economy" goes down the drain. 

One thing that might be OT: I think antibiotics should be given prescription free right now. When the organism starts to fight the bacteria due to antibiotic dose, the antibodies should target everything including the virus. We should think about antibiotic resistance later and have a healthy as possible population in the meantime. I'll reee at my government about this particular thing. Not only that might help a lot with the pandemic, but people won't risk virus infection while going to their medic to get a prescription for whatever they are suffering.

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39 minutes ago, Genjurooo said:

having lower division rikishi in the same building increases the risks too. Sumo is even riskier than football if you think about it since football has a lot of stadiums and not all teams play on one stadium. Unless Tokyo is covid free I would not risk the health of the rikishi, the gyoji, the yobidashi, the nsk judges for a tournament. Everyone delayed to take measures because muh teh economy. The longer we make compromises with this thing the more their "precious economy" goes down the drain. 

One thing that might be OT: I think antibiotics should be given prescription free right now. When the organism starts to fight the bacteria due to antibiotic dose, the antibodies should target everything including the virus. We should think about antibiotic resistance later and have a healthy as possible population in the meantime. I'll reee at my government about this particular thing. Not only that might help a lot with the pandemic, but people won't risk virus infection while going to their medic to get a prescription for whatever they are suffering.

Isn’t it the trend in medicine to reduce prescriptions of antibiotics because they’re losing their effectiveness?

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Posted (edited)

Yes, what we definitely need right now is the entire population getting given a free pass to start popping antibiotics like they're candy. Especially the many people who believe that antibiotics help against virus diseases. :-S That's some forward thinking right there.

(Leaving aside that the supply chains for them are unlikely to be robust enough to handle the sudden spike in demand that would undoubtedly happen, with the wonderful result that people who actually need to be on antibiotics might then find it difficult to procure them.)

Edited by Asashosakari
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I'm a little mystified why people are comparing the NSK's response to the pandemic with other sports' governing bodies' response. What other sport keeps its participants effectively closeted (in heya) like ozumo does? It's probably the only sport that has a chance of staying COVID-free! And if they can stay that way (could be a huge 'if'), why shouldn't they compete in another closed-doors basho?

---

@Genjurooo FYI anti-biotics are for bacterial infections: they are totally ineffective against viruses. To combat a viral infection, you need an anti-viral drug, usually a specific one, or a specific vaccine.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Isn’t it the trend in medicine to reduce prescriptions of antibiotics because they’re losing their effectiveness?

if bacteria adapts. But the same effect have the disinfectants. I don't see many people campaigning against disinfectants. 

3 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Yes, what we definitely need right now is the entire population getting given a free pass to start popping antibiotics like they're candy. Especially the many people who believe that antibiotics help against virus diseases. :-S That's some forward thinking right there.

 

1 hour ago, RabidJohn said:

--

@Genjurooo FYI anti-biotics are for bacterial infections: they are totally ineffective against viruses. To combat a viral infection, you need an anti-viral drug, usually a specific one, or a specific vaccine.

What kills people is pneumonia in both lungs. Pneumonia is bacterial.and you treat it with antibiotics. 

In that post I also made the point that antibodies might go after the virus too once they start going after the bacterial infection created by the virus attacking the lungs. Also if you ever took old school strong antibiotics you'd know it raises your temperature a lot (fighting infection) which also has an effect against the virus.

 

1 hour ago, Kaminariyuki said:

I could see the possibility that the tv revenue could be enough to have an only juryo and makuuchi basho, which would dramatically cut the number of participants. Maybe it's possible, but Japan's and Tokyo's infection rates seem to be rising again.

if all involved are tested for covid and they disinfect the kokugikan, it should be fine I guess. But would tv revenue cover that extra effort and precautions?

And they'll need few top makushita on stand-by to fight in juryo matches if need arises. 

Edited by Genjurooo
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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Kaminariyuki said:

I could see the possibility that the tv revenue could be enough to have an only juryo and makuuchi basho, which would dramatically cut the number of participants. Maybe it's possible, but Japan's and Tokyo's infection rates seem to be rising again.

Tokyo's infection rate is "rising" is a gross understatement at this point.   It has entered an explosive growth path a week or two ago.   To make things worse, based on the limited testing done, we really have no idea how widespread it is now.   And as I have mentioned before, there are 52 beyas in Tokyo and it is very possible a riksihi or two are already infected and don't even know it.   The next basho will be canceled.   The question for this thread is whether the summer basho will be canceled, reduced in scope, delayed, and/or held without a crowd.

Edited by robnplunder

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1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

I'm sorry, but that's really, really stupid reasoning for wanting to give people carte blanche to self-medicate with antibiotics on a "just in case" basis, especially in a situation where many people are already prone to act even less rationally than they usually do. (Case in point...) Please, just stop digging yourself in even further.

I don't know when this prescription-only thing started, but it is a fairly recent one. People self-medicated with antibiotics for over half a century. 

No, let's let them progress until they need ventilators so the god almighty ruling over life and death finally decides to give them the precious antibiotic. [/sarcasm] 

(start a flame, get burnt)

 

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