Sign in to follow this  
Kaminariyuki

General Corona Banter

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Amamaniac said:

Activity on the Forum has to a certain extent declined, especially since the biz-haru tournament came to an end.  I can't help but think that the pandemic is impacting not only the immediate future of oozumo in Japan, but also the lives of Forum members all around the world.  Stay safe, fellow fans and friends.  Stay home.  And post when the spirit moves you.  (Bow...)

It always does. Nothing unusual here. I generally only have crap to say when there are bouts to discuss. In between basho I’m usually pretty quiet. I check in to see what’s been said but have less to contribute.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

If only Japan shared your sense of urgency.

The low infection numbers until recently may have contributed to the lack of urgency.  It is now becoming apparent that Japan's strategy of fighting the virus is failing if not failed already.   Japan should have approached the fight like a 7-7 M17 rikishi on day 15.   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

NY governor Andrew CNN Anchor Chris Cuomo now has the Corona virus

Edited by WAKATAKE

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WAKATAKE said:

NY governor Andrew Cuomo now has the Corona virus

I haven't seen a report about Andrew, but I believe his brother Chris is the one who has tested positive, for now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm wondering why they were reporting it was Andrew

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

It always does. Nothing unusual here. I generally only have crap to say when there are bouts to discuss. In between basho I’m usually pretty quiet. I check in to see what’s been said but have less to contribute.

One man's crap is another man's gold.  Your contributions are always spot on and appreciated...

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not only do I  follow sumo but after being introduced to the sport on TV,  I also enjoy watching Australian rules football. It's played on a oval field approximately twice the size of an American football field. 

Those in charge  have decided to play theiir current season in stadiums with no spectators. If you think that watching sumo in an empty 8,000 seat arena is weird, the idea of seeing 45 people  including players and referees on this huge playing field in an empty stadium that has a capacity of over 100,000 is absolutely mind boggling. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, sekitori said:

Not only do I  follow sumo but after being introduced to the sport on TV,  I also enjoy watching Australian rules football. It's played on a oval field approximately twice the size of an American football field. 

Those in charge  have decided to play theiir current season in stadiums with no spectators. If you think that watching sumo in an empty 8,000 seat arena is weird, the idea of seeing 45 people  including players and referees on this huge playing field in an empty stadium that has a capacity of over 100,000 is absolutely mind boggling. 

Having nothing to watch (my favorite is golf), I will take the no spectator broadcast any day.   But given how widespread the virus is everywhere, there will be players who will get infected during the season.  When it happens, it is season over as the player has likely spread it to his teammates and opponents.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Having nothing to watch (my favorite is golf), I will take the no spectator broadcast any day.   But given how widespread the virus is everywhere, there will be players who will get infected during the season.  When it happens, it is season over as the player has likely spread it to his teammates and opponents.   

Those running Aussie football apparently had similar thoughts. After one round of play with no spectators, they decided  to suspend the season until some indefinite future date. Along with the Haru basho, I had two sources of live sports viewing, sumo and Aussie football. If the Natsu basho is called off, my viewing sources will be down to zero.  And with major league baseball and NBA schedules currently in limbo, they are likely to remain that way for quiite a while.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, sekitori said:

Those running Aussie football apparently had similar thoughts. After one round of play with no spectators, they decided  to suspend the season until some indefinite future date. Along with the Haru basho, I had two sources of live sports viewing, sumo and Aussie football. If the Natsu basho is called off, my viewing sources will be down to zero.  And with major league baseball and NBA schedules currently in limbo, they are likely to remain that way for quiite a while.

I think Japan is still running horse racing (no spectator, obviously).    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Hmm wondering why they were reporting it was Andrew

Chris is Andrew's brother.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, robnplunder said:

The low infection numbers until recently may have contributed to the lack of urgency.  It is now becoming apparent that Japan's strategy of fighting the virus is failing if not failed already.   Japan should have approached the fight like a 7-7 M17 rikishi on day 15.   

How do you figure they are failing? 2178 cases so far is pretty good compared to the world.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

How do you figure they are failing? 2178 cases so far is pretty good compared to the world.

2178 does not tell the story if you have been following Japan's COVID 19 strategy.   Japan has made it very difficult to qualify for the test.  Less tests means less infection numbers but it does not mean the virus is not widespread in the community. The thing to look at is where they are in the patient growth graph.  Their new infection rate has entered the exponential growth stage about 5 days ago and hasn't looked back.  Once a country is where Japan is now in the graph, it quickly went out of control.   So, people are panicking a bit, especially, after Shimura Ken's death.   Japanese medical community and many Japanese are calling Abe to declare a national emergency.   Abe, today, said again it is not time yet.  The keyword here is "not yet."  But I think everyone knows it is coming. 

 

 

Edited by robnplunder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One proxy for how widespread testing is is the positive rate--places that are testing extensively will have a much lower positive rate than places that aren't. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As I said before, the one guy in our Japan office had to have a fever for 5 days before they allowed his test... and a lot of people don't have a fever for that long with this virus. The numbers are much larger than they appear.

In NYC they are finding the virus in people's lungs who come into the hospital for completely unrelated reasons such as broken ribs etc.

Here they have started building field hospitals in all the sports stadiums and convention centers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Ryoshishokunin said:

One proxy for how widespread testing is is the positive rate--places that are testing extensively will have a much lower positive rate than places that aren't. 

 

About a week ago, Tokyo tested 70+ and 40 tested positive.    Since then, the rate has gone down a lot but it tells what is going on in Japan when it comes to testing.   In comparison, Korea tested about 11000 yesterday (their daily average) and found just 101 new infections.  Today (4/1 Japan time), Japan with much lower testing being done, reported 265 new infections, their highest daily total yet.   I don't believe they will go the way of Italy but it will take quick, decisive action and draconian measures by Japan to limit the damage.   Japan is in trouble and this is why I don't believe the next basho will happen.  

Edited by robnplunder
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, sekitori said:

Not only do I  follow sumo but after being introduced to the sport on TV,  I also enjoy watching Australian rules football. It's played on a oval field approximately twice the size of an American football field. 

Those in charge  have decided to play theiir current season in stadiums with no spectators.

The AFL has been suspended since the end of round 1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

As I said before, the one guy in our Japan office had to have a fever for 5 days before they allowed his test... and a lot of people don't have a fever for that long with this virus. The numbers are much larger than they appear.

In NYC they are finding the virus in people's lungs who come into the hospital for completely unrelated reasons such as broken ribs etc.

Here they have started building field hospitals in all the sports stadiums and convention centers.

Many Japanese believe that without the testing restriction, the infected will overwhelm Japan's hospital system.  (Thinkingindepth...)  Anyway, this strategy didn't work as some prefectures are planning or starting to build temp hospital beds.  Moreover, this "waiting" to be tested game has infected a proportionally large number of doctors, nurses, and caretakers. Guess where many people with high fever went.   

This was a failed strategy.  I had my doubts for a long time but low Japan's infection and death numbers relative to other countries fooled me. All the strategy did was to lull Japanese into a false sense of security that they are doing well.   Sigh.

 

Edited by robnplunder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Minimizing the epidemic by testing few people is possible, indeed. But how do you explain the low number of deaths in Japan? Are they fudging the numbers?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, serge_gva said:

Minimizing the epidemic by testing few people is possible, indeed. But how do you explain the low number of deaths in Japan? Are they fudging the numbers?

WIthout thorough testing of all dubious death, impossible to know the true number. According to a friend of mine, who takes care of the organisation of local emergency services in my province (La Spezia province, Liguria), 20 to 40% of covid-related deaths are not formally validated by a test, thus do not enter in the statistics. I have no solid evidence to back this number whatsoever, but the guy is pretty reliable.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, serge_gva said:

Minimizing the epidemic by testing few people is possible, indeed. But how do you explain the low number of deaths in Japan? Are they fudging the numbers?

There are rumors to the effect but I don't see it.   If many deaths are unreported, it would be backed up by funeral workers being infected.  No such reports.   I think the low death rate hitherto is a combination of Japanese people doing a good job of keeping the virus at bay and a bit of luck.   Meanwhile, the virus kept spreading albeit slowly until it can't be "held" no more.   I can't help thinking that the low infection and death numbers let Japanese people's guard down despite what is happening elsewhere.  Shame.   

There is a chance Japan can still nip this before it becomes a mega-disaster.   But as I have been saying, it is going to take a change in strategy and/or draconian measures.   

 

 

Edited by robnplunder
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Nantonoyama said:

WIthout thorough testing of all dubious death, impossible to know the true number. According to a friend of mine, who takes care of the organisation of local emergency services in my province (La Spezia province, Liguria), 20 to 40% of covid-related deaths are not formally validated by a test, thus do not enter in the statistics. I have no solid evidence to back this number whatsoever, but the guy is pretty reliable.

Deaths in Bergamo are apparently far in excess of last year, even with all confirmed coronavirus fatalities removed from the tallies. I wouldn't be surprised if we see something similar to what happened with Swine Flu, where in a couple of years the total death toll gets revised upward, with a little asterisk after the numbers that says something to the effect of 'probably, but we'll never know for sure'.

berg.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This figure would suggest a +100% wrt reported death for covid in Bergamo area.

Bergamo province, with Lodi and Piacenza provinces, are particularly hardly striken. Figures there get high and I can imagine the unreported covid-related death tally is way worse there than in other parts of the country.

As for Japan, the raw figures have to be handled cautiously. Typically, the total number of tests and the percentage of those tests that tuen out to be positive seem to be pretty good incicators

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is remarkable how some have become so knowledgeable about public health, national health systems, and national laboratory systems in a few short weeks. I would like to suggest that anyone who states that the relatively low rate of testing in Japan is a "strategy" has no understanding of Japanese health systems and capabilities or even health systems in general. It would be the same as stating that the lack of testing in California is a "strategy". The lack of testing in Japan has been a lack of capacity, period. Many have been working extensively on this since January but to this point the ability to conduct a large number of automated tests is not possible. It's great to point to South Korea and say why didn't Japan (or any other county for that matter) have a system that could conduct a large volume of tests but the simple fact is that South Korea instituted a system post-SARS that allowed them to do this. Should other countries have done the same? Yes, but they didn't. Again, the limited testing is not a national "strategy" and suggest that it is an intentional strategy is false.

Apraxin is precisely on target that the true impact of Covid-19 will not be known for years, just like the H1N1 virus as the data now is incomplete and will likely never be known exactly. Oh, and before anyone suggests that Japan declined one million free tests from Softbank's CEO (which was later rescinded) the reason is they wouldn't have been able to process them. A lack of laboratory capacity. Japan is in the same shape as a lot of other countries at the moment, uncertainty over how this will progress and trying to figure out the best way to mitigate the impact while preserving human life given the constraints of their medical system, supply chain, and how the epidemic is presenting in their country. I am reluctant to comment further as some will want to believe whatever they want to no matter what. I would simply hope that all will try to comply as best as possible with whatever their local health authorities suggest/demand and keep themselves, their families, and fellow citizens safe.

  • Like 11

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

A Japanese company has recently announced a test kit that will find the result in an hour.  I think they are deploying it in 16 locations.   

About a month or so ago, the government has admitted they under-tested vs their supplies.

In any case, if as you stated, Japan can't build and process the test kits fast enough, that is a bigger issue.  How will they respond to the virus uptick that is happening now?   We are talking about Japan, a world economic power.   FYI, other countries had no problem ramping up their test kits and processing power.   Some have opted to import given the urgency.   Japan had a long time to ramp up their system.   Something isn't working here.

Edited by robnplunder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this