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Kaminariyuki

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I am thinking sumo is not going to be a priority for Japanese in the coming weeks.   I have been following COVID 19 closely.   This cannot be stopped unless extraordinary measures are put in place.    If the Japanese government does not act much beyond what it has been doing, we won't see sumo on TV for a long time.   I don't think the next basho will happen.  There may be no basho for the next six months.  

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3 hours ago, robnplunder said:

I am thinking sumo is not going to be a priority for Japanese in the coming weeks.   I have been following COVID 19 closely.   This cannot be stopped unless extraordinary measures are put in place.    If the Japanese government does not act much beyond what it has been doing, we won't see sumo on TV for a long time.   I don't think the next basho will happen.  There may be no basho for the next six months.  

This is somewhat overstated in my opinion. Japanese are concerned about transmission of the virus but probably more concerned at this point on its effect on the travel industry and global supply chains, much like the rest of the world. The Japanese government's response with the cruise ship Diamond Princess was mishandled by leaving quarantined passengers without adequate infection protection while on board however, all other cases have been handled and so far contained using standard infection protocols as those used in the US or Europe. I don't know what is meant by "extraordinary measures" but I would find it highly unlikely that severe travel bans or large scale quarantines of cities as those seen in China would ever be employed.

It is still relatively early in the outbreak as China restricted information about the outbreak to international experts until recently. As more is understood about the virus such as mode of transmission, can non-symptomatic patients transmit the virus, and most effective anti-viral treatments, the rate of infection should decrease. Of course since these are unknown at the moment anything is possible however the world's response to other outbreaks such as SARS and MERS suggest a more rapid control over transmission rates.

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I spoke to an ex-coworker from my time being in the Kansai area today. He works for a company that imports food and their main source of work is containers that come from Southeastern Asia and China. Corona has completely wiped out that load so he says they are "hima" a lot now.

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46 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

Corona has completely wiped out that load so he says they are "hima" a lot now.

Sorry for the stupid question but what is "HIMA"? Tried google but i find nothing. 

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The basho will happen. This corona thing  has been blown out of proportion. It's  fueled by media hysteria, as is happening a lot of late on various issues  Yes, there's a new virus, and it's killing people, like the regular flu does yearly in China (250,000-600,000.YEARLY..) and around the world. The fact that there is no instant cure for it is scaring people. The deaths are overwhelmingly among the elderly. The two passengers on the virusboat that died were 87 and 84 respectively. No children have been affected so far, as far as we know. Yes, it's China and we will never know the real extent of the damage, but in other countries, the numbers are probably real. An overwhelming percent of stricken get well, without an antidote. You can never be careful enough, that's true, but I don't think the basho will be affected. There may be some temperature taking at the entrance, but other than that, I don't see it canceled. And July and September as well? It'll be forgotten by then. Olympics in July. Does anyone see them canceled?

Edited by Kintamayama
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42 minutes ago, Ginkitsune said:

This is somewhat overstated in my opinion. Japanese are concerned about transmission of the virus but probably more concerned at this point on its effect on the travel industry and global supply chains, much like the rest of the world. The Japanese government's response with the cruise ship Diamond Princess was mishandled by leaving quarantined passengers without adequate infection protection while on board however, all other cases have been handled and so far contained using standard infection protocols as those used in the US or Europe. I don't know what is meant by "extraordinary measures" but I would find it highly unlikely that severe travel bans or large scale quarantines of cities as those seen in China would ever be employed.

It is still relatively early in the outbreak as China restricted information about the outbreak to international experts until recently. As more is understood about the virus such as mode of transmission, can non-symptomatic patients transmit the virus, and most effective anti-viral treatments, the rate of infection should decrease. Of course since these are unknown at the moment anything is possible however the world's response to other outbreaks such as SARS and MERS suggest a more rapid control over transmission rates.

I think you may not have the latest of what has been going on.    This has been going on for over two months now.   China has shared a lot of info on the virus.  Today, it confirmed that COVID 19 is an aerosol transmittable virus.  Other countries also have shared their info.   Things are not looking good for neighboring countries to China.   

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3 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

The basho will happen. This corona thing  has been blown out of proportion. It's  fueled by media hysteria, as is happening a lot of late on various issues  Yes, there's a new virus, and it's killing people, like the regular flu does yearly in China (250,000-600,000.YEARLY..) and around the world. The deaths are overwhelmingly among the elderly. The two passengers on the virusboat that died were 87 and 84 respectively. No children have been affected so far, as far as we know. Yes, it's China and we will never know the real extent of the damage, but in other countries, the numbers are probably real. An overwhelming percent of stricken get well, without an antidote. You can never be careful enough, that's true, but I don't think the basho will be affected. There may be some temperature taking at the entrance, but other than that, I don't see it canceled. And July and September as well? It'll be forgotten by then. Olympics in July. Does anyone see them canceled?

I sure hope you are right.   

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Just now, robnplunder said:

I sure hope you are right.   

I am always right, although some say I'm left.

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The professional media loves a good scare story, because it sells. This one comes around every couple of years (SARS, etc), but most people haven't been told or don't remember the fable of the boy who cried wolf.

The problem is exacerbated these days by the woefully ignorant and easily malleable masses of the social media, leading to a kind of hysterical mob rule. I have no idea how resilient the Japanese government is to that kind of pressure (the UK powers-that-be regularly cave in to it). The Japanese have already received international criticism for their response to this 'crisis', so cancelling forthcoming public events might, unfortunately, be a way of being seen to do something.

The thing I like to keep in mind is the fact that we humans and the long line of ancestral species we evolved from have been winning the battle against constantly mutating viruses and bacteria for hundreds of millions of years without the benefit of either medical science or mass media.

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3 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

The basho will happen. This corona thing  has been blown out of proportion. It's  fueled by media hysteria, as is happening a lot of late on various issues  Yes, there's a new virus, and it's killing people, like the regular flu does yearly in China (250,000-600,000.YEARLY..) and around the world. The fact that there is no instant cure for it is scaring people. The deaths are overwhelmingly among the elderly. The two passengers on the virusboat that died were 87 and 84 respectively. No children have been affected so far, as far as we know. Yes, it's China and we will never know the real extent of the damage, but in other countries, the numbers are probably real. An overwhelming percent of stricken get well, without an antidote. You can never be careful enough, that's true, but I don't think the basho will be affected. There may be some temperature taking at the entrance, but other than that, I don't see it canceled. And July and September as well? It'll be forgotten by then. Olympics in July. Does anyone see them canceled?

exaxtly. remember swine flu? this is the exact same thing that happened then, and i predict this will similarly blow over.

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10 hours ago, robnplunder said:

I am thinking sumo is not going to be a priority for Japanese in the coming weeks.   I have been following COVID 19 closely.   This cannot be stopped unless extraordinary measures are put in place.    If the Japanese government does not act much beyond what it has been doing, we won't see sumo on TV for a long time.   I don't think the next basho will happen.  There may be no basho for the next six months.  

 

5 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

I suggest this good read that has facts, not fireworks:

https://www.globalresearch.ca/flu-bigger-concern-wuhan-virus-grabs-headlines/5701932

Hard to say about the basho, given the Tokyo marathon situation, and the quickly changing landscape of what's happening and where. I liked the article Kintamayama posted a link to, but it is seriously dated, more than three weeks old. I'd say the article posted by Rocks and reposted by myself, is also not alarmist and paints a much clearer picture of what's happening today in Japan, the best I've seen in the last few days in English. Although the flu kills many more people annually, so far, the early numbers (in no way trustworthy out of China) indicate a significantly higher mortality rate compared to strains of the flu that have been kicking around the planet the last few decades. Of course, 1918's Spanish flu was a major exception. 

So, this isn't my field, but I am a scientist and I've been watching this super close. I was supposed to teach a one-month class at South Central University in Changsha, China the entire month of March. Needless to say, that's not happening, although I'll still go once things have settled down and I can make another slot for the class in my schedule. Changsha is very close to Wuhan, capitals of neighboring provinces. So, when I bailed there, I booked a short vacation to Japan and scored box seats for Day 14. The kid's on a roll... 

Anyone want some seriously discounted Box C tickets for Day 14?  LOL  Actually, if I bail on Japan for March, it will likely be because I suspect the mood of the country is going to at least temporarily shift to be even more xenophobic than normal. When I travel solo I like to chat with strangers I meet in bars and restaurants, on the street and at museums and just around town. I'm guessing that there's going to be a heightened sense of carefulness in a country that leans pretty hard toward being careful to begin with.

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1 hour ago, Kaminariyuki said:

 

o at least temporarily shift to be even more xenophobic than normal. When I travel solo I like to chat with strangers I meet in bars and restaurants, on the street and at museums and just around town. I'm guessing that there's going to be a heightened sense of carefulness in a country that leans pretty hard toward being careful to begin with.

I highly doubt that. Asian foreigners maybe, but Western foreigners will have no problem. I'm even thinking of going there myself if my schedule permits. 

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For those who weren't tracking the numbers, Japanese COVID 19 infection numbers (not counting the cruise ship) is up to 94.  It entered an exponential growth path when looking at the chart.  Just a week ago, it was less than 30 and had been there for weeks.   In another week, if it is kept below 200, that'd be good.

For those who are comparing this to past like Sars, Mer, etc., let me point out a key difference.   Every indication is that it spreads much faster.   If the flu is treated early, there is no problem.  It's just another flu.   But if it develops to an advanced stage, the death rate is high.   Now the key issue here is that because it can spread so quickly, it may spread beyond the local medical system can handle.   This is what happened in Wuhan and why so many have died by it.    The only sure way to stop exponential growth is by restricting people's movements and gatherings.   

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2 hours ago, robnplunder said:

If the flu is treated early, there is no problem.  It's just another flu.   But if it develops to an advanced stage, the death rate is high. 

Just want to state that this as it is incorrect. Even with early treatment some compromised patients will die or have severe comorbidity from the flu  which is why there are high risk groups (infants, elderly, diabetics, etc) who should receive the annual flu vaccine. 

Also the Bloomberg article that has been posted regarding Japan's response to the virus reports the comments of primarily economists who have little expertise commenting on medical issues. The infectious disease physician in the article was commenting solely on conditions onboard the cruise ship. At this time there is still too much unknown to confidently state what is going to occur but based on all recent outbreaks it is highly likely that this will be contained in the near future. To state that the only way to control transmission is to restrict people's movements and gatherings is alarmist although there will likely continue to be restrictions on people who have been in infected areas of China until the outbreak is controlled there and some events may be affected by that like the Tokyo marathon.. As Kintamayama has pointed out there seems to be a little hysteria at this point.

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6 minutes ago, John Gunning said:

Just go in anyway and 英語のメニューではないの意味だと思いました

Anyway actually found an English article about eikokurais comment. Getting worried about sumo.

Tokyo cancels plethora of public events in attempt to stem coronavirus’ spread

Several events in Tokyo over the next three weeks are canceled, including an imperial birthday greeting, as cases of the new coronavirus multiply in Japan and public health officials scramble to contain the outbreak.

Gov. Yuriko Koike on Friday canceled government-sponsored events between Feb. 22 and March 15, a prefectural spokesman said. Koike’s order also applies to outdoor festivals such as food fairs.

However, Japanese school exams and graduations will take place as scheduled.

As of Friday, 25 people in Tokyo were diagnosed with the coronavirus, with three in critical condition, Koike said during a coronavirus countermeasures meeting. "There are increasing numbers of cases that we cannot trace where and how the patients were infected,” she said. “The situation we are in is very critical. We must all have more of a sense of urgency to deal with the problem.”

Events and venues affected by concern for the virus spreading include:

• A public birthday event for Emperor Naruhito at the Imperial Palace was canceled, the Imperial Household Agency said.

• Beyond Stadium 2020, scheduled for Monday at Komazawa Olympic Park, is also canceled. Expected to draw 20,000 people, the event is considered an important introduction to para-sports in the lead up to the 2020 Paralympic Games this summer in Tokyo

The Hello Kitty-themed Sanrio Puroland park, which is about an hour for Yokota Air Base and Camp Zama, announced Friday it would close until March 12, according to its website. Its sister park in Oita prefecture will close as well.

• The Tokyo Marathon Foundation on Monday barred amateur runners from the Tokyo Marathon on March 1.

• One of Japan’s biggest cosplay events, Nipponbashi Street Festa 2020, scheduled March 15 in Osaka, was canceled Wednesday. It typically draws upwards of 200,000 people.

The cancellations follow news of Japan’s first coronavirus patient under age 10, announced in Hokkaido on Friday, the prefectural website said. Until now, most patients in Japan have been elderly. Hokkaido has reported eight coronavirus cases since Jan. 28.

As of Thursday, 84 people in Japan had tested positive for the virus and one person has died, Defense Minister Taro Kono said Friday in a post on Twitter. A dozen remain hospitalized, having tested positive for the highly contagious virus without exhibiting symptoms.

Passengers quarantined two weeks in Yokohama aboard the cruise ship Diamond Princess were set to leave the vessel Friday, the Japan Times newspaper said. More than 620 of the 3,700 passengers and crew aboard the ship tested positive for the virus, the BBC reported Friday.

Last week, the State Department chartered two planes to bring American Diamond Princess passengers back to the United States where they are undergoing another 14-day quarantine at Travis Air Force Base in California and Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland in Texas.

Seven Diamond Princess passengers associated with U.S. Army Japan will quarantine at home in Japan for 14 days, U.S. Army Japan said Tuesday.

Coronavirus, known officially as COVID-19, appeared first in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December and has since spread globally. The World Health Organization has declared it a global health emergency.

Symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath and breathing difficulties, according to the World Health Organization. The infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and even death in severe cases.

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On 20/02/2020 at 11:58, Kintamayama said:

The basho will happen. This corona thing  has been blown out of proportion. It's  fueled by media hysteria, as is happening a lot of late on various issues  Yes, there's a new virus, and it's killing people, like the regular flu does yearly in China (250,000-600,000.YEARLY..) and around the world. The fact that there is no instant cure for it is scaring people. The deaths are overwhelmingly among the elderly. The two passengers on the virusboat that died were 87 and 84 respectively. No children have been affected so far, as far as we know. Yes, it's China and we will never know the real extent of the damage, but in other countries, the numbers are probably real. An overwhelming percent of stricken get well, without an antidote. You can never be careful enough, that's true, but I don't think the basho will be affected. There may be some temperature taking at the entrance, but other than that, I don't see it canceled. And July and September as well? It'll be forgotten by then. Olympics in July. Does anyone see them canceled?

Unfortunately, this is a too simplistic view.  Still, without going into too much details, there are too many known unknowns and on top of it way too much face-saving exercises going in Japan such as counting two Japanese elderly as not toll from coronavirus.  If you have had business dealings with China, last two months nothing moves, all is stopped.  You do not quarantine 150 mln people for just a simple flu. 

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4 hours ago, I am the Yokozuna said:

Unfortunately, this is a too simplistic view.  Still, without going into too much details, there are too many known unknowns and on top of it way too much face-saving exercises going in Japan such as counting two Japanese elderly as not toll from coronavirus.  If you have had business dealings with China, last two months nothing moves, all is stopped.  You do not quarantine 150 mln people for just a simple flu. 

Never said it was just a simple flu. I said it was a new flu, and as such, is dealt hysterically by the press. Not the medics. The press. The results percentage -wise are not catastrophic so far. But you are right regarding the face-saving. I may have been wrong as usual, and they might cancel, just to be on the safe side, or maybe restrict the fans to only Japanese..

Edited by Kintamayama

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2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Never said it was just a simple flu. I said it was a new flu, and as such, is dealt hysterically by the press. Not the medics. The press. The results percentage -wise are not catastrophic so far. But you are right regarding the face-saving. I may have been wrong as usual, and they might cancel, just to be on the safe side, or maybe restrict the fans to only Japanese..

Known facts have been slowly released by Chinese officials based on their data.   The bad news this week was that the virus is aerosol.  Many suspected that but the report made it official.

I have been tracking this closely since Wuhan closed its borders.   The posted videos by Wuhan people (the posts are almost immediately taken down) are just unbelievable and heartbreaking.    

Anyway, I am betting the next basho will be canceled giving every rikishi a needed break.

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Well, I can see this easily going either way. The Japanese can be such an exceptional society in terms of confronting problems and following procedures, and I'm guessing they want to do what they can now, hoping to save the larger event this summer. That said, I'm wimping out. Just canceled my flight and let my ticket broker know that my box on Day 14 is available for resale if he finds anyone who wants it. He told me I was only the second cancellation for that day, and that the sumo association is still insisting that they will hold the event.

If any of you will be in Osaka and don't already have tickets for Day 14, let me know. If my ticket broker can't resell the tickets, I'll give them to anyone on SF who happens to be going at no cost (Box C, about a $500 value). Folks I've corresponded with getting first dibs. Shoot me a PM if possibly interested.

We should have much better data on this virus within the next couple of weeks, as South Korea and Japan should be more reliable than the Chinese for the straight scoop, IMO. The value of having a free press, for any US Republicans who happen to be reading this.

Edited by Kaminariyuki

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Yeah considering how the cases increase in Italy Iran and South Korea it seems they are just gonna try to ignore it by not testing. We'll see.

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6 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Yeah considering how the cases increase in Italy Iran and South Korea it seems they are just gonna try to ignore it by not testing. We'll see.

I was surprised at the pace of testing the Diamond Princess guests.  If I recall correctly, they were testing about 100 a day for days.   Is this a process issue?  I can't believe they don't have resources to test more at a time.   

Ozumo is a 15-day event with people in a close-quarter.   I don't see how it can happen given the current situation.   

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For every tricycle that says something about the corona virus, there are ten others that say the opposite..

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-is-bad-comparing-it-to-the-flu-is-worse/

Edited by Kintamayama
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I’m somewhat conflicted. Some people say never trust a tricycle, but I’ve also heard it said “three wheels good, two wheels bad”. As for unicycles, well, don’t even get me started...

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