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furanohana

Shodai, a possible Ozeki ?

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I don't know if this has been discuted already.

I'm wondering if Shodai could be considered for Ozeki promotion after this basho, if he achieves 10+ wins (or 12+ wins) ?

I know he wasn't komusubi or sekiwake for the last 2 bashos, but he has a record of 24 wins and 6 defeats for november-january, at M10 and M4. As the Kyokai needs badly a new Ozeki, I'm really wondering if 10/11/12+ wins at Sekiwake could make him an Ozeki...

10 wins this basho would result in a 34-wins record, and 12 wins a 36-wins records. But only one basho holding a sanyaku rank.... And he never was really successul at joi-jin ranks (except a 11-4 basho in november 2016 at M3).

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Too low ranked in the preceding tournaments

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I have no idea if this is possible, but if he wrestles well this basho and in May (if there is a May basho), I would think it possible then.

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3 hours ago, furanohana said:

I'm wondering if Shodai could be considered for Ozeki promotion after this basho, if he achieves 10+ wins (or 12+ wins) ?

Winning the yusho might well do it, anything less most likely won't.

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24 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Winning the yusho might well do it, anything less most likely won't.

That's what I think. If he gets 13 wins and takes the yusho he would have a very strong case. He would have 37 wins and a record of jun-yusho, jun-yusho, yusho over three tournaments. As I was saying to Kintamayama on his youtube channel, I can't see how that doesn't get him promoted. 

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3 hours ago, furanohana said:

10 wins this basho would result in a 34-wins record, and 12 wins a 36-wins records. But only one basho holding a sanyaku rank.... And he never was really successul at joi-jin ranks (except a 11-4 basho in november 2016 at M3).

First of all, nice to hear from you :-D

The fact is that the 11-4 at M10 doesn't really count, he was way out of the joi and met only one sanyaku on senshuraku.

But the 13-2 at M4 is a big plus for him, he had rather good top-rank schedule (altough few meetings with the M1-M4). I would agree with Asashosakari that a yusho might do it, or a 14-1 record possibly. If he does 9-13 wins, I guess he'll have a shot in May

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He doesn’t have the consistently high records to get much love from the rank givers. He came out of the woodwork last basho after a couple years of middling performances. If he keeps it up this basho, there might be some buzz next basho. If he gets the yusho, I don’t think that will be enough. Unless, of course, the Kyokai feels some pressure to fill that ozeki spot because of weak performances from the yokozuna...

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Cool, a discussion about oxymorons.

@Asashosakari Do you really think the NSK would lower their (unwritten) standard so much?

There is still Asanoyama. If When he gets promoted, we are back to 2 Ozeki, so there's no need for overpromoting Shodai. Yes, the last 2 basho were way above what we have seen from him so far, but i'm still not convinced he finally "flicked the switch".

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Posted (edited)

No chance.   He will lose to Mitakeumi today ...

Edited by robnplunder

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51 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

No chance.   He will lose to Mitakeumi today ...

Steak?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Benihana said:

 

@Asashosakari Do you really think the NSK would lower their (unwritten) standard so much?

Terunofuji had zero double-digit records in makuuchi and then essentially got promoted straight off of 13-2 jun, 12-3 yusho. Sure he was in sanyaku for both tournaments, but his schedule wasn't materially different from what Shodai is having in January and now. Echoing what I commented on Tachiai when the topic came up a little while ago: Winning a yusho can make things happen that mere win totals can't. I'm not saying that 13+13 with a yusho would be a guaranteed promotion for Shodai, but it's a level of - yokozuna quality, really - performance that they'd have to seriously consider promoting on.

And a bit ironically, I feel Asanoyama is pretty much irrelevant here. If Shodai does something promotion-worthy and Asanoyama doesn't, there's still the "need" to get a second ozeki which could play out in Shodai's favour. And if they both put up promotable results at the same time, that's a story worth taking advantage of in itself. (Not least because it would probably mean we've witnessed an Asanoyama-Shodai yusho race.)

Edited by Asashosakari
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No way. M11 and M4 and Sekiwake, even with a yusho? Has that or anything close to it ever happened before? One basho at the hiramaku joi ranks was scoffed at, so 2, starting with M11? No way.

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4 hours ago, Churaumi said:

He doesn’t have the consistently high records to get much love from the rank givers. He came out of the woodwork last basho after a couple years of middling performances. If he keeps it up this basho, there might be some buzz next basho. If he gets the yusho, I don’t think that will be enough. Unless, of course, the Kyokai feels some pressure to fill that ozeki spot because of weak performances from the yokozuna...

Shodai originally burst up through the ranks, reaching Makuuchi from Maezumo in 12 basho, and was on equal footing with rival Mitakeumi as the next breakout stars. Then Shodai plateaued while Mitakeumi went on to win twice and be on the cusp of Ozeki promotion before falling back recently. 

Shodai has clearly found a new gear the last couple basho. The talent and pedigree have always been there. The tachiai hasn't. At 28 he's entering his prime. Now he seems to have added strength and a tachiai to his arsenal. 

It may not happen even with another double-digit win this basho. But it could very well happen at some point.

 

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Shodai was at M10 because he threw out a 3-12 from M4 in September 2019.  Ouch.

Maybe that would make the committee nervous about his consistency, even though (I agree) he seems to have "thrown a switch" of late.

IIRC, Takakeisho made 33 wins in Sanyaku(1 Yusho, 1 JY), and the powers that be still needed a "convincer" basho.  Maybe for Shodai, too?

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Posted (edited)

I have nothing new to add, I just wanted to throw in with the "No way, but a strong performance here could see him on a run for May" crowd.

Even then I think should Asanoyama get promoted after this or the next basho, anything short of a strong Jun-Yusho from Shodai here would push back promotion talk to July.

Edited by Houmanumi

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Shodai speculated to be next Ozeki. Film at 11.

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3 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

IIRC, Takakeisho made 33 wins in Sanyaku(1 Yusho, 1 JY), and the powers that be still needed a "convincer" basho.  Maybe for Shodai, too?

To be fair that was when there were 3 pre-collapse Ozeki, but still a valid point.

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10 hours ago, Houmanumi said:

To be fair that was when there were 3 pre-collapse Ozeki, but still a valid point.

And two of those pre-collapse Ozeki collapsed.  The era of >5-year Ozeki career followed by retirement may be over (Goeido might be the last).  The committee may be struggling with how to handle what comes next: 2-year Ozeki careers, with several ex-Ozeki in Makuuchi or below being the norm.

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I don’t see it. He missed out on the yusho to an M17, losing to him in the process. I can’t see the  Kyokai looking too favourably on that jun-yusho even with the yusho this time.

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In tennis they'd say "Advantage Asanoyama", now.

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Maybe another Ozeki is needed, but given that the joi is so small, and wins are therefore easier to come by, does that count against a borderline record?

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Suwihuto said:

Maybe another Ozeki is needed, but given that the joi is so small, and wins are therefore easier to come by, does that count against a borderline record?

The joi competition includes the top 16 rikishi, no matter what ranks are assigned to them...how can that rank setup affect how easy or hard it is to obtain wins?

Maybe you meant there's a shortage of ozeki (and better) quality rikishi? That's an entirely different issue, and taking that into account risks making it a chicken-or-egg situation. Why hold it against a prospective new ozeki that there's no old guard for him to beat? All that would do is make it harder for the situation to get back to normal, and ultimately there's no way to resolve the "Does getting 33-ish wins make a rikishi an ozeki, or does being an ozeki-caliber rikishi lead to getting 33-ish wins?" question. The promotion standard just is what it is: a certain level of success against the best 15 opponents available.

Edited by Asashosakari
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18 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

The joi competition includes the top 16 rikishi, no matter what ranks are assigned to them...how can that rank setup affect how easy or hard it is to obtain wins?

Maybe you meant there's a shortage of ozeki (and better) quality rikishi? That's an entirely different issue, and taking that into account risks making it a chicken-or-egg situation. Why hold it against a prospective new ozeki that there's no old guard for him to beat? All that would do is make it harder for the situation to get back to normal, and ultimately there's no way to resolve the "Does getting 33-ish wins make a rikishi an ozeki, or does being an ozeki-caliber rikishi lead to getting 33-ish wins?" question. The promotion standard just is what it is: a certain level of success against the best 15 opponents available.

My misuse of terminology - I always thought the joi was komusubi upwards.

Thanks for your answer though, this makes sense, although I still feel that it would be difficult for the banzuke committee to look upon an 8-7 at Sekiwake differently when there's one Ozeki compared to when there are five, although winning 33 would always solve that problem...?

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