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Haru 2020 Basho Discussion (SPOILERS)

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Given the drought in sumo action, I decided to rewatch the final bout of this year's haru-basho in Osaka.  I noticed that the HNK broadcast displayed a prior record of 41 wins for Hakuho and 8 wins for Kakuryu.  However, when I checked the CyberSumo site for the record of prior meetings between Hakuho and Kakuryu, it was 43 to 9 in favour of Hakuho.  That means that according to a non-Japanese internet source, Hakuho and Kakuryu had faced off two more times than indicated by NHK.  The fact that CyberSumo lists every single bout in detail makes me think that it provides the true record.  But I find it difficult to accept that NHK would have got this wrong.

Anyone care to confirm which record is correct?

Come on Ama, you have been around here long enough to check sumodb and notice the 2 additional play-off wins. YO NSK! This man needs a high dose shot of sumo, ASAP or we might lose him.

Edited by Benihana
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Kakuryu may become the fifth rikishi who beats Hakuho for more than 10 times.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Benihana said:

Come on Ama, you have been around here long enough to check sumodb and notice the 2 additional play-off wins. YO NSK! This man needs a high dose shot of sumo, ASAP or we might lose him.

I'm fading fast... (Hitthewall...)

Edited by Amamaniac
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14 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

Given the drought in sumo action, I decided to rewatch the final bout of this year's haru-basho in Osaka.  I noticed that the HNK broadcast displayed a prior record of 41 wins for Hakuho and 8 wins for Kakuryu.  However, when I checked the CyberSumo site for the record of prior meetings between Hakuho and Kakuryu, it was 43 to 8 in favour of Hakuho.  That means that according to a non-Japanese internet source, Hakuho and Kakuryu had faced off two more times than indicated by NHK.  The fact that CyberSumo lists every single bout in detail makes me think that it provides the true record.  But I find it difficult to accept that NHK would have got this wrong.

Anyone care to confirm which record is correct?

Both are correct. It just depends whether or not you take into consideration kettei-sen bouts (Haru 2012, Hatsu 2014, both Hakuho wins).

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Nantonoyama said:

Both are correct. It just depends whether or not you take into consideration kettei-sen bouts (Haru 2012, Hatsu 2014, both Hakuho wins).

Thanks for trying to help me save face!  :-)

I tend to lose sight of the fact that the NSK's official records do not include kettei-sen bouts.  Despite the fact that they do in principle represent "official-tournament" bouts, they are not treated as official "tournament bouts".  I suppose that that has something to do with the whole odd number of total bouts in a tournament, creating in modern times a majority-win minimum of eight wins.  If kettei-sen were deemed official, then there would arguably be 16 bouts, and eight wins would no longer represent a majority.

But if someone has the skinny on why kettei-sen are not included in match-up records by NHK, if not by the NSK, then I'd definitely be interested in hearing it. (I'm asking for a friend.;-))

Edited by Amamaniac

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Those bouts are just tie-breakers, nothing more.

In a tournament you cannot face heya mates, family members or twice the same rikishi. None of those rules apply to tie-breakers, because of their very nature. It will not affect banzuke moves, there is no kensho on this bout and it comes after the yumitori-shiki. It is just there to break the tie.

In football, penalty shoot-out goals are not proper goals, they do not count for the best scorer award nor are reflected in the score of a game (which remains a draw for one-legged games)

It must not been confused with the 8th bout one lower-ranked rikishi has to do every other tournament to even the number of involved rikishi, which actually matters for banzuke purposes.

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One reason not to include tie-breaking bouts would be that if it is a 3-way or 4-way or higher playoff, a record could be enhanced by multiple wins or losses.  I don't think that is a great argument, really.  We would know immediately, if we saw 15-1 or 16-1 or 14-2 or even 13--3 (hell, with the parity in Juryo recently we could see an 11-5 at some future basho!), or a lower division 8-0 or 7-1, that some sort of playoff was involved.  These matches are certainly relevant when looking at past records: unlike most sports tie-breaking methods, they are conducted under the same rules as regular matches.  It would be surprising to find that they omitted stats from tennis tiebreakers, or golf playoffs, from a player's stats.  There is no chance of confusing these extra matches, and the records they produce, with the occasional Hattorizakura 0-8 when someone needs an opponent in a hurry to avoid falling off the banzuke completely...

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Posted (edited)

When NHK broadcasts display their graphics showing the bout history between two rikishi, they list how both wrestlers have fared against each other in the past as well as in the last 12 months (in Top Division competition).  These records give fans like me a sense of who is the dominant opponent and even who might win the bout that particular day given recent trends.  My feeling is that including all head-to-head bouts fought in official tournaments (including kettei-sen) is slightly more revealing.  Kettei-sen may well be "just tie-breakers, nothing more", but they still represent valuable clues to how both wrestlers in a match-up have fared, are faring and ... will fare.  Perhaps it is the historian in me that feels the kettei-sen data should be included.  But "no biggie" if they are not.

Edited by Amamaniac

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As soon as more than 2 are involved, the ketteisen results become rather meaningless for the head to head records. In a tomoesen, the same 2 may meet several times.

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Depends how one use the head-to-head records.  If one feels they are predictive for the next time they meet, it makes little sense to discard the playoff matches.  In fact, it might reasonably be argued that they are more relevant since both rikishi are going to give it their all, as opposed to a Day 13 match when both are, say, 4-8.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

As soon as more than 2 are involved, the ketteisen results become rather meaningless for the head to head records. In a tomoesen, the same 2 may meet several times.

That is an interesting point.  However, from a quick review of the six times there has been a tomoesen in the Top Division (since 1958), correct me if I am wrong – never have the same two wrestlers met more than once at the playoff stage in order to determine the champion of a given tournament.  

My point was simply that the kettei-sen and tome-sen meetings add to fans' appreciation of how one specific wrestler tends to fare against another specific opponent over time.

Edited by Amamaniac

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Hakuho had 86 wins in 2009 and 2010: which was the more impressive year?  It may well be the playoffs that decide it.  

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8 minutes ago, Ichimawashi said:

Hakuho had 86 wins in 2009 and 2010: which was the more impressive year?  It may well be the playoffs that decide it.

Good point.  Hakuho had "0" kettei-sen wins in 2009 (three losses in fact), whereas he had one kettei-sen win in 2010.

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2 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

Good point.  Hakuho had "0" kettei-sen wins in 2009 (three losses in fact), whereas he had one kettei-sen win in 2010.

In terms of patterns 09 was more impressive, because nobody else in sumo history managed D-Y-D-Y-D-Y. That record is for eternity.

 

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This is interesting stuff.  I have a question.  Which is more important to preserve as the record of a sekitori's career: a playoff match for the yusho, or an 8-6 guy losing to a 7-7 guy on senshuraku?

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1 hour ago, Benihana said:

In terms of patterns 09 was more impressive, because nobody else in sumo history managed D-Y-D-Y-D-Y. That record is for eternity.

The way things are going, one might say that virtually all Hakuho's records are "for eternity"! 

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10 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Which is more important to preserve as the record of a sekitori's career: a playoff match for the yusho, or an 8-6 guy losing to a 7-7 guy on senshuraku?

I would definitely go with the "playoff match for the yusho", since that guarantees either a sweet yusho victory (complete with all the trimmings) or a junyusho runner up finish, which is pretty awesome in the scheme of things.

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Posted (edited)

I guess I was replying to something very old, don't mind me.

Edited by Kaito
Slow pony

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On 11/06/2020 at 15:30, Amamaniac said:

I'm fading fast... (Hitthewall...)

Bonne courage, notre ami!

Stretch out. You can make it!

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On 14/06/2020 at 12:01, Amamaniac said:

My feeling is that including all head-to-head bouts fought in official tournaments (including kettei-sen) is slightly more revealing. 

If I can jump in late here, play-offs are not official tournament bouts. When the no-hoper swings his bow after musubi no ichiban on senshuraku the tournament is over - whether or not the result is a draw. While play-offs are fought every bit as seriously as tournament bouts, they occur after the basho has finished, and their purpose is solely to decide the yusho; i.e. who gets the trophies and prizes. This is why you see results recorded as 14-1-Y/D rather than 15-1/14-2, for example. 

That's the why, but yeah, it does slightly skew some head-to-head records, which must be very galling for the OCD statisticians out there.

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I can stress what RabidJohn just said on the non-tournament nature of those bouts is that standard procedure doesn't apply for the east/west sides. Turing the tournament the higher ranked rikishi gets to keep its side and the lower ranked fills the gap. In kettei-sen, the higher rankes goes east and the lower rank goes west.

However, the lower division kettei-sen take place before the yumitori-shiki, and the makuuchi one before the dohyo is desacrated, but that may be for practical reasons, I don't know enough of this matter

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