Haru 2020 Basho Discussion (SPOILERS)

[robnplunder 976]

Enho has run into a solid wall in this basho.  At his current level, things are too tough for him.

Takakeisho just does not look like himself.   Perhaps, he is trying to mix things up instead of utilizing a one-dimensional but effective style.   

Mitakeumi bounced back from two straight losses.   I am hoping he runs the table.

Shodai has returned to earth.  He will go MK.

Terunofuji will bounce back tomorrow against Mitoryu.

 

[Amamaniac 2,079]

So let's talk about the elephant in the room.  Hakuho has put together a relatively tidy 9 straight wins since opening day.  What does this mean in terms of him winning this tournament (V44) and in terms of him getting yet another zensho yusho 15-0 championship?

In his Yokozuna career, Hakuho has put together 9 straight wins from opening day on 42 separate occasions.  Of those 42 tournaments, he managed to get zensho yusho in 13 of them (i.e., 31%).  In 13 others, he started losing bouts after the 9th win and ended up losing the championship.  But in 16 of the 42 (i.e., 38%), he still ended up winning the championship despite suffering one or more losses.  

That means Hakuho wins 69% of the time, if he starts a tournament with 9 straight wins.  Pretty good odds that he will be getting his 44th championship this time around.  

But the same odds (i.e., 69%) apply to him not getting a zensho yusho 15-0 finish.  So we will just have to see if anyone amongst his remaining 6 opponents can step up and hand the GOAT a black star.  I am pretty sure that at this stage, Hakuho is aiming for a 14th perfect record.  So he will definitely be disappointed if he gets any losses here on out.

Two recent-history things that need to be considered: (1) Hakuho got his 13th zensho yusho exactly one year ago in Osaka, and (2) In the previous tournament [January 2019], he started with 10 straight wins, before suffering three straight losses, only to withdraw from the tournament on day 14!

Frankly, it will take a miracle (or injury) for anyone to stop the freight train that is Hakuhooooooooooooooooo.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Amamaniac

[Kintamayama 45,527]

14 hours ago, Gospodin said:

Did he REALLY say this, or is it me missing irony from you ?

He really said this.

[Tigerboy1966 1,474]

17 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

That means Hakuho wins 69% of the time, if he starts a tournament with 9 straight wins.

This time his closest pursuers are Aoiyama and Takanosho who aren't serious yusho contenders so he effectively has a two match lead over the field.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

12 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

This time his closest pursuers are Aoiyama and Takanosho who aren't serious yusho contenders so he effectively has a two match lead over the field.

If you check the stats for January 2019, you will see that on day 9 Hakuho had a similar kind of "two match lead over the field", since he was being trailed by Chiyonokuni.  Just saying...

32 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Frankly, it will take a miracle (or injury) for anyone to stop the freight train that is Hakuhooooooooooooooooo.

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Amamaniac

[robnplunder 976]

Barring an injury or boredom, Hak gets another zensho yusho.   Hak is praying for Chiyomaru's health as we speak.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Hakuho only gets the yusho this time if he beats the coronavirus for it on senshuraku. That’s the new boss level.

[Kintamayama 45,527]

Day 9 rikishi talk:

Yutakayama, beating Ozeki Takakeishou : "I was all over the place but I was patient and managed to win so  I'm happy. I went out there feeling that I must not lose under any circumstances. My win yesterday changed the flow of things.  I will totally gambarize for the remaining days as well and would like to do Yutakayama-like sumo for the many fans who are watching us on TV!"

Kotonowaka, winning his seventh and needing another win for a kachikoshi in his Makuuchi debut basho, something his father did not achieve in his debut basho: "The flow was bad but my body was able to move well and I could respond. I'd like to build up my feeling without fail on a daily basis!"

Aoiyama, kachikoshi on day 9 by beating Chiyotairyuu, first KK since July: "It's been a while. My opponent has  a powerful tachiai as well so I tried not to lose there.. Last basho my wish to win was very strong and I couldn't do my own sumo. From the start of this basho I am able to move forward like I do in training.. I don't know how i will do from here on, but I want to pile up those white stars.." 

Ounoshou, facing Hakuhou tomorrow, for the first time since January 2018: "Really looking forward to it. I'd like to do all I am capable of."

Enhou, losing to Endou, who he beat last basho: "I wanted to do it at my pace, but I got caught up in my opponent's pace. It's not easy to win when you're ranked as a joi..'

Shoudai, losing the Sekiwake battle to Asanoyama: "My tachiai was good, but I couldn't go through with it and that is regrettable.."

Kakuryuu, calmly absorbing Abi's flailing attack: "I was watching him carefully and remained calm. My ring sense is slowly returning..'

Ryuuden, a good bout against Hakuhou: "I planned on moving forward by thrusting. I couldn't get inside, but I was able to thrust more than i expected, so i'd like to hone  that skill in practice!"

Asanoyama, winning today after losing yesterday: "Yesterday I couldn't do my own sumo and that's too bad.. I went out there determined to restart. I was able to attack calmly. "

EDIT:

Kotoshougiku, tying Musashimaru's career win record of 706, 8th all-time: "I'm really thankful for that.. I'm gambarizing a bout a day and that is the accumulation.. That was a good tachiai today, huh? Yesterday (against Shimanoumi) it was a bit close,  but I managed to open some space and it was a good tachiai. I want Kotoshouhou's (7-3 in Juryo) power, Kotonowaka's softness- I want their youth!!" 

Mitakeumi, losing to both Yokozunae : "Even if I did lose twice my sumo was not bad. I intend to continue doing my own sumo seriously!"

Tokushouryuu, moving forward and beating Ounoshou for his second win: "I've got to be serious till the end. There are many fans who are cheering me on..'

Hakuhou, undefeated, followed by two hiramaku rikishi: "I'll be pulling them after me.. I want to face my bouts one by one till the end of the basho.."

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Kintamayama

[Morty 1,505]

Ishiura essentially henka'd Ikioi three times during that bout: once at the tachiai, then once in the middle, then once at the end to get the win.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

If the tournament is cancelled as a result of Chiyomaru testing positive, there seems to be uncertainty as to whether there will be a championship awarded at all.  Hakuho is the sole leader, so it would not be farfetched to grant him the honour.  However, would that win go into the history books as a zensho yusho?  Questions, questions.

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

Hakuho only gets the yusho this time if he beats the coronavirus for it on senshuraku. That’s the new boss level.

You probably already saw this piece, care of Colin Murray at Metro News:

"The Yokozuna himself always looks like he is on the verge of knocking out any man weighing over 16 stone within a ten-mile radius, even on his day off, and it might be worth attempting to stem the spread of Covid-19 by politely asking him to stare at it."

[robnplunder 976]

 

 

 

 

2

5 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

If the tournament is cancelled as a result of Chiyomaru testing positive, there seems to be uncertainty as to whether there will be a championship awarded at all.  Hakuho is the sole leader, so it would not be farfetched to grant him the honour.  However, would that win go into the history books as a zensho yusho?  Questions, questions.

 

That would also mean all other records (KK, MK) can be legit.  More questions.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

Here's a spoiler alert for the Haru 2020 basho discussion (SPOILERS).  The Japan Times reports that a new 15-minute Coronavirus test will come available this week.  

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/13/national/kurabo-coronavirus-test-kits/#.Xm_LJS2ZP6B

I am still hoping that Chiyomaru's fever is unrelated to the "uirusu", but given the speed of testing and depending on when the results are released, is there not the possibility of tournament action being halted halfway through day 10?   Please, no.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Amamaniac

[ryafuji 815]

Reports say that Chiyomaru was told at the hospital that his fever was most likely due to a bacterial skin infection, and that the coronavirus test is a precautionary measure.

[robnplunder 976]

18 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Here's a spoiler alert for the Haru 2020 basho discussion (SPOILERS).  The Japan Times reports that a new 15-minute Coronavirus test will come available this week.  

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/13/national/kurabo-coronavirus-test-kits/#.Xm_LJS2ZP6B

I am still hoping that Chiyomaru's fever is unrelated to the "wirusu", but given the speed of testing and depending on when the results are released, is there not the possibility of tournament action being halted halfway through day 10?   Please, no.

Chiyomaru will be OK.  Basho will complete.   Hak will get his yusho.  Kotonowaka, Takanosho will get their sansho.   Enho will MK.  Mitakeumi will start his Ozeki run for the 12th time.   But, there may be no next basho.   

 

[Amamaniac 2,079]

53 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Chiyomaru will be OK.  Basho will complete.   Hak will get his yusho.  Kotonowaka, Takanosho will get their sansho.   Enho will MK.  Mitakeumi will start his Ozeki run for the 12th time.   But, there may be no next basho. 

You forgot to give a prediction about Asanoyama's Ozeki-promotion chances...  If in fact he needs 12 wins in this tournament, that means he has only one loss to give over the final six days.  Let me be the "Debbie Downer" and state that he will not secure promotion this time around.

And if you are going to hand out a special prize to Takanosho, don't you think Aoiyama will get the nod too?

[robnplunder 976]

1 minute ago, Amamaniac said:

You forgot to give a prediction about Asanoyama's Ozeki-promotion chances...  If in fact he needs 12 wins in this tournament, that means he has only one loss to give over the final six days.  Let me be the "Debbie Downer" and state that he will not secure promotion this time around.

And if you are going to hand out a special prize to Takanosho, don't you think Aoiyama will get the nod too?

Like you, I think Asanoyama will fall short of securing 12 wins.   He still has Hak, Kak, and Takakeisho coming his way.  He can easily lose 2 or 3 against them.  OTOH, he can beat struggling Takakeisho and unimpressive Kak.  We can use another Ozeki so I am hoping the morning mountain will shine.

Aoiyama has a good chance of getting a sansho.  My bias (not a big fan of Aoiyama) excluded him on my list.  

[Jabbamaru 167]

Yutaka played very strategic ozumo against Enho and Takakeisho... He showed the key to bear them. Enho; patience and defensive posture. Tkk; fighting tight and close, no space.

[Catalin B 13]

Is Daieisho just going to steamroll through everyone after losing to argually the top 3 guys he could face this basho (considering Takakeisho's poor form)? Looking forward to him facing Abi on day 10.

Okinoumi vs Tokushoryu could be another very interesting match-up.

And I hope Hokutofuji can bounce back against Myogiryu. Though I've seen both guys recover from poor starts in recent tournaments.

[Wasabeefu 17]

Hakuho should have this one wrapped up. Aoiyama and Takanosho will start to face stiffer competition and/or each other, and won't be around in the last match of Day 15. Do I have it right then that it will probably end with a Hak vs. Kak show match, with Asanoyama maybe facing each one of them on Day 13 and 14, and probably Takakeisho on Day 12? He'll probably need to beat at least two out of those three to legitimize his Ozeki promotion, so that may be the interesting thing to watch down the stretch.

As for today, Ishiura vs. Ikioi was the most exciting, though probably not "best" match, since it was a mad scramble around the dohyo. Enho made it interesting, but any match where his opponent can stay squared up and out of a hold will end up with Enho being bullied by their size. I also liked Nishikigi dismantling Shohozan after an obvious matta. The less said about Tochinoshin's match, the better.

[Godango 1,014]

7 hours ago, ryafuji said:

Reports say that Chiyomaru was told at the hospital that his fever was most likely due to a bacterial skin infection, and that the coronavirus test is a precautionary measure.

Any more formal news on this? I'd have expected his results to be ready by now, but I can't find anything.

[robnplunder 976]

No new news.  But there was another report which disputes a bacterial skin infection.  The plot thickens.

[Yubinhaad 11,761]

NHK reporting that Chiyomaru's test was negative and the basho will continue.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200317/amp/k10012335221000.html

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,276]

With all the open wounds these guys have I wonder how often they get fevers like that and just want to crawl into bed instead of fight. Those times when suddenly a guy is a total push over...

[robnplunder 976]

 

[Katsunorifuji 65]

19 hours ago, robnplunder said:

Enho has run into a solid wall in this basho.  At his current level, things are too tough for him.

Takakeisho just does not look like himself.   Perhaps, he is trying to mix things up instead of utilizing a one-dimensional but effective style.   

Mitakeumi bounced back from two straight losses.   I am hoping he runs the table.

Shodai has returned to earth.  He will go MK.

Terunofuji will bounce back tomorrow against Mitoryu.

 

Similar thoughts from me on Enho and Takakeisho. It’s like both of them have their strategies and they just don’t work this basho. 
 

Enho’s opponents are doing an excellent job of slowing him down and keeping him far enough away that they can shove him out. It’ll be interesting to see if future opponents further down the ranks have also caught on and can do the same or if this is just the top rankers truly being that much better and Enho is in his upper limit now. 
 

Takakeisho just can’t seem to thrust his opponents out with the same force as in the past. Just the opposite of Enho, his opponents get to close too quickly and once they do it becomes a 50-50 match as to who wins. 
 

I’ll throw out the disclaimer that I make those comments having not watched countless replays and make them instead based on my overall feelings of how the basho has gone just watching their matches once per day. 
 

*Edit for clarity - when I say Enho’s current opponents are that much better I mean compared to the guys further down the ranks and not compared to Enho himself who is still doing an admirable job. 

Edited March 17, 2020 by Katsunorifuji