Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2020

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14 hours ago, Gurowake said:

There is a big difference between M1e and M1w, and a 9-6 M1e did have an extra spot created not too long ago.

That's right, I forgot all 3 cases I was speaking about were M1w.


By the way, is this not the only situation when the difference between West and East is so important? From M1e, so far, 8 wins were enough to get an extra-slot. From M1w, not enough even with 9 wins!

Edited by serge_gva

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Well clearly in junior sanyaku the east slots can be demoted to West and the West slots promoted to east when the results require flexibility.

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I don't know. I'm probably wrong but I think they will make a 3rd Sekiwake slot for Shodai and slot Hokutofuji and Endo into the Komusubi slots. With only 1 Ozeki and it highly unlikely both Yokozuna will compete the whole basho they are going to need all the sanyaku they can get.

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6 minutes ago, code_number3 said:

With Goeido’s imminent retirement, will S1W slot becomes available any joi-jin?

Yes, the riji-kai on Wednesday will acknowledge his intai, when the new banzuke is compiled as well - and Goeido won't be on it.

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18 hours ago, ryafuji said:

Nishikigi is the only rikishi with an overwhelming case for promotion and Kotoeko is the only one who has to be demoted by the numbers, so a one-up and one-down, while unusual, might be the simplest solution. 

With Goeido intai, (at least) two Juryo will go up. In addition to Nishigiki there is

J2e 8-7 Kotonowaka

J6e 11-4 Daiamami

J13w 13-2Y Terunofuji

By the numbers, I tend to give preference to Daiamami as he had about the same strength of opposition as Kotonowaka.

I'd be happy for Kotonowaka for a lucky promotion as the Makuuchi debut would be a great reward for his consistent results, he's on a Kachikochi streak of 7. He would be the youngest Rikishi in the Top division then!

J13 is too low for a promotion with only 13 wins. I doubt that Yusho makes really a difference here. I'd really like to see Terunofuji in Makuuchi again but the finish was sooo underwhelming. He might get as well get in shape with another Juryo Yusho before he can hold up to the top division. My prediction is he will struggle in mid Meagashira.

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Is the direct encounter between Daiamami and Kotonowaka something they would take into account? Because in this case, Daiamami should be the clear favourite.

With M18 also being created, Nishikigi and Daiamami for Kotoeko and the open slot seems like the straight-forward way to go; beyond that, bringing up Kotonowaka for either Kotoyuki or Meisei feels a bit unfair... unless they want to force both Kotonowaka and Hidenoumi over the injured rikishi? Does Kotonowaka have a historically Much better case than Hidenoumi, btw?

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1 hour ago, Andreas21 said:

With Goeido intai, (at least) two Juryo will go up. In addition to Nishigiki there is

J2e 8-7 Kotonowaka

J6e 11-4 Daiamami

I would agree with Daiamami being stronger by the numbers Tomokaze's kyujo makes Kotonowaka a de facto J1 for this basho with a KK. Plus Kotonowaka had an exchange match against Kiribayama, who went 11-4 with a sansho, and won. I thikn Kotonowaka gets the edge.

I think it likely they may demote Kotoyuki too so Daiamami will go up. Didn't they say Kotoyuki had surgery? If so he is kyujo for March too probably.

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Just a heads-up, I meant to get to the closing summary today but it's not gonna be happening until tomorrow now. Sorry about that.

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3 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Just a heads-up, I meant to get to the closing summary today but it's not gonna be happening until tomorrow now. Sorry about that.

Thanks for still putting it out there regarsless - your summaries are always worth waiting for!

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Well, you already have Goeido and Arawashi going intai. I would not be surprised to hear the same from Sokokurai and Toyonoshima although the later sounds like he's on the fence. Also, there's Gagamaru, who pulled out midway through this basho and with no wins is likely to drop far from promotion range. Given how he's been fairing that could mean a year or more to get back to Juryo. A tall order.

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22 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I'm going to say most likely Tomokaze survives and Chiyootori does not, with Akiseyama being promoted, but I can see any of those three being the one stuck in Makushita.  If Akiseyama does get promoted, I don't think it's 100% clear who gets the boot for him unlike in almost every situation.  Again, I lean towards Tomokaze still being in Juryo, but the guys who make the banzuke clearly don't like rikishi sitting out entire tournaments, regardless of their injuries.

22 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Out of Shimanoumi, Meisei, Kotoyuki, and Daiamami, one of them will end up in Juryo.  My best guess is Kotoyuki, but I can see why they might choose any of those four.  Only one promotion to Makuuchi would be rather abnormal (although there has been a case of none in the past).

With Goeido's retirement, these situations seem much clearer - all the rikishi will end up in the higher division.

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Does Hokutofuji have much of a chance at sekiwake or is Shodai pretty much a lock?

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1 hour ago, Rocks said:

Well, you already have Goeido and Arawashi going intai. I would not be surprised to hear the same from Sokokurai and Toyonoshima although the later sounds like he's on the fence. Also, there's Gagamaru, who pulled out midway through this basho and with no wins is likely to drop far from promotion range. Given how he's been fairing that could mean a year or more to get back to Juryo. A tall order.

I think Sokokurai was supposed to go intai at the end of next basho no matter what so that he succeeds his oyakata.

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29 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

I think Sokokurai was supposed to go intai at the end of next basho no matter what so that he succeeds his oyakata.

Sokokurai won't retire, because he has no kabu yet and should succeed Arashio-oyakata after Haru. But we haven't heard if Arashio really wants to leave the kyokai or plans to prolong till 70 and be consultant. Then another kabu is necessary after all. We just assume that the heya will continue this way - it could disappear and merge into others.

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4 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Sokokurai won't retire, because he has no kabu yet and should succeed Arashio-oyakata after Haru. But we haven't heard if Arashio really wants to leave the kyokai or plans to prolong till 70 and be consultant. Then another kabu is necessary after all. We just assume that the heya will continue this way - it could disappear and merge into others.

Thanks for clearing it up. I was under the impression it was pretty much a given / open secret.

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3 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Does Hokutofuji have much of a chance at sekiwake or is Shodai pretty much a lock?

Given some of their decisions in the past, I wouldn't completely count out Hokutofuji getting the second Sekiwake spot now open, but it definitely would have been closer, and indeed by the numbers be in his favor by a half-rank, if he had won his last match.  Shodai having Sekiwake experience while Hokutofuji does not may or may not matter, but would tilt things more towards Shodai.

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13 hours ago, Andreas21 said:

With Goeido intai, (at least) two Juryo will go up. In addition to Nishigiki there is

J2e 8-7 Kotonowaka

J6e 11-4 Daiamami

J13w 13-2Y Terunofuji

I'm thinking we might see 4 up and 3 down? Looking at demotion candidates:

Certain:

O1w Goeido (5-10) - Intai

Probable:

M3w Kotoyuki (0-0-15)

Exact same rank and 'performance' (absence) as Tomokaze before him, should be on top of Juryo come Haru.

M13w Kotoeko (2-13) - can't imagine him safe at that rank with that result


Possible:

M5e Meisei (1-7-7) - one win at M5? I dunnooooo...

I'm mostly expecting all four of Andreas21's aforementioned Juryo candidates to come up ... with a Meisei/Terunofuji switch the potential sticky wicket. Either way you'd have to think those two will be on the boundaries of each division. 

EDIT: Now I'm thinking Meisei clinging on with Terunofuji as J1e makes more sense. Speculation is fun!

Edited by Houmanumi

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11 minutes ago, Houmanumi said:

I'm mostly expecting all four of Andreas21's aforementioned Juryo candidates to come up ... with a Meisei/Terunofuji switch the potential sticky wicket. Either way you'd have to think those two will be on the boundaries of each division. 

Maybe Hidenoumi also has a chance as the 4th promotee, but maybe they will spare Meisei because of his 1 win.

Anyone, Hidenoumi is coming from two not very impressive 8-7, has been a long time in Juryo and his last Makuuchi outing ended in a disastrous 3-12, which means if he indeed comes, he comes as a  Yusho candidate. ;-)

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6 hours ago, shumitto said:

Maybe Hidenoumi also has a chance as the 4th promotee, but maybe they will spare Meisei because of his 1 win.

Anyone, Hidenoumi is coming from two not very impressive 8-7, has been a long time in Juryo and his last Makuuchi outing ended in a disastrous 3-12, which means if he indeed comes, he comes as a  Yusho candidate. ;-)

I do remember then-Iwasaki soaring through the ranks and looking like he was destined for great things... :-P

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Filling in some stuff first...

Lower division yusho races (Day 13 results with links to video, also as playlist - includes the jonidan playoff):

6-1 Ms1w Wakamotoharu (Arashio)
7-0 Ms51w Kaito (Asakayama)

7-0 Sd16e Yuma (Onomatsu)
6-1 Sd26e Sadanohana (Sakaigawa)
6-1 Sd82e Tatsukaze (Oguruma)

7-0 Jd28e Ura (Kise)
6-1 Jd49e Otsuji (Takadagawa)
7-0 Jd84w Kyokuyuko (Nakagawa)

7-0 Jk26e Nihonyanagi (Onomatsu)
6-1 Jk27e Mudoho (Otake)

A bit of an unexpected result in the makushita yusho decider, with a finish a bit reminiscient of how the top division winner kept doing it (although the backpeddling ended in kotenage here, not tsukiotoshi). That being said, Kaito certainly has enough of an upper-makushita pedigree that it's hard to declare it a major upset. In any case it's only the 6th time in the 7-bout era of the lower divisions that an 0-7 was followed up on by a zensho performance, so it's remarkable just for that. Should result in a new career-high rank for Kaito next time, probably inside the top 5 promotion zone. We've had both Chiyonoo and Chiyonokuni failing to turn that into a juryo promotion quite recently, and they came up the division with much bigger expectations after their tournament victories, so it would be quite a surprise if Kaito were to do it now. Wakamotoharu, of course, is headed back up to juryo for the third time, hopefully with more success than the pair of 5-10's he's done so far.

A nicely competitive little match for the sandanme yusho between Yuma and Sadanohana, eventually won by the former. Fresh off a 2-5 setback in his makushita debut two months ago, Yuma will be headed a lot higher than that now. Would be a shock if the 21-year-old proved competitive above Ms15 all of a sudden, so his main goal for the next few basho ought to be just to establish himself in the makushita division now - far too many sandanme winners without a track record of success at higher ranks end up picking up 3+ straight makekoshi afterwards to find themselves right back in the sandanme muck. 23-year-old Sadanohana, for his part, scored his third straight 6-1 back from half a year out with injury, and should find himself right around his pre-injury high rank of Ms42.

There was of course a third sandanme contender in 26-year-old Tatsukaze, but he was predictably eliminated by Ura. His jonidan playoff opponent turned out to be Kyokuyuko, the much more experienced of the other two contenders in the division, but that playoff wasn't much to write home about and ended with a quick pushdown victory for former maegashira Ura. He's a bit unfortunate that his Hatsu rank may have been a little too low to get promoted to Sd25 or better, which is the usual cutoff from which another 7-0 could get him straight into the top 15 makushita ranks for an immediate shot at a juryo promotion. So, probably a minimum of three more tournaments for him before sekitori status is a possibility again.

Kyokuyuko achieved a successful return from injury himself and as a former upper sandanme regular he should still be somewhat underranked near the bottom of the division next time, so perhaps his win streak isn't over yet at 7. Arguably of more future interest than the 25-year-old will be his nearly 10 years younger 6-0 opponent Otsuji though, who will be making his sandanme debut at just 16 years of age. We'll see how he gets on - at that age sandanme tends to be quite a roadblock for all but the most talented, but he'll definitely bear watching for the next while.

And finally, the decider in jonokuchi between the pair of recent high school grads, Nihonyanagi and Mudoho. Nihonyanagi came in with somewhat greater fanfare, but although it looked like he was largely in control of the match it took him a while to break through Mudoho's defenses. I think it's generally agreed that Mudoho doesn't have quite the talent of his one year older brother Naya, so it remains to be seen how high he can go before the wall awaits him for the first time. Should make sandanme rather easily though, which is my personal minimum expectation for all at least halfway talented debutants out of high school, as should Nihonyanagi of course. Top high schoolers (see e.g. Kitanowaka or Tochikamiyama recently) generally have no trouble reaching makushita straight away, too, but based on the evidence so far I think these two will get stopped before that. Establishing themselves in upper sandanme by year's end would be good, I think.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Day 15 (results, text-only results)

14-1 M17w Tokushoryu

13-2 M4w Shodai

12-3 ---

11-4 Oe Takakeisho, M2e Hokutofuji, M9w Yutakayama, M17e Kiribayama

Not much for me to add, two days after the fact, that hasn't already been said about Tokushoryu's championship. A truly stunning outcome but at the same time completely deserved with the way he handled both the pressure of the situation and his final opponent, ozeki Takakeisho. A cool 14 million yen for the yusho and the double special prize (shukun-sho and kanto-sho), not to mention the sheer experience is something nobody will be able to take away from the 33-year-old, no matter where his career goes from here.

Hard luck for runner-up Shodai who did his part in keeping up the suspense for the tournament's final bout by defeating Mitakeumi beforehand. I really, really hope that Shodai has turned a corner in this basho and won't be turning straight back into the pumpkin he's been for most of his makuuchi career, as it's been known since his pre-professional days that he does have this kind of sumo talent in him. One sansho, a kanto-sho, for him as well, although that's probably not much more than a consolation prize. (On a side note: First time back-to-back makekoshi for Mitakeumi in his four-year makuuchi career.)

While we're at it, further prizes were awarded with a kanto-sho to Kiribayama for his impressive 11-4 debut in the top division, a gino-sho to Hokutofuji for a strong joi performance with the same record, and somewhat inexplicably unexpectedly a shukun-sho to Endo primarily for his early-basho victories over Hakuho, Kakuryu and Goeido (none of whom played a relevant role in this tournament).

Speaking of Goeido, he ended his Hatsu kadoban campaign with another loss to Onosho to finish just 5-10, his most losses in four years - and as it has of course become known since senshuraku, the result has also proven to mark the end of his active career. After his first year or so as ozeki, I don't think many of us expected him to last more than 30 basho, let alone pick up a zensho yusho along the way. In a way his five years as ozeki were largely a continuation of his lengthy prior stint as sekiwake, and even if it wasn't always pretty, I'd say he ultimatedly justified the decision to promote him back in 2014. We'll probably get to see the newly minted Takekuma-oyakata around the dohyo in one of the blue Kyokai jackets as early as his home Osaka basho in two months.

No immediate replacement for him at the ozeki rank as had been known for several days already, but at least Asanoyama secured a double-digit record against Ryuden on the final day to keep himself in the conversation for next time. He'll be joined in the lower sanyaku ranks by Endo, Hokutofuji and Shodai - as I'd suggested even before senshuraku I'm quite sure all three would have made it in anyway (likely as a trio of komusubi), but Goeido's departure from the banzuke has cleared up the possible logjam altogether.

The two questions now are: 1) Who's going to be the West Sekiwake, Hokutofuji or Shodai? It's not completely clear, but I would say most precedents favour Shodai - full joi schedule (what was left of it, anyway), so the fact he's had two more wins in that should easily cover the 2.5 rank gap to Hokutofuji. And 2) Will the Kyokai really go with a 7-man sanyaku for the first time since the 1930s? If not, the candidates for an extra third komusubi are (in roughly descending order of probability) Daieisho, Okinoumi, Tokushoryu, Yutakayama and Takayasu. I'd rate Daieisho's and Okinoumi's chances as non-negligible, everybody else would really shock me.

Anyway, we may or may not see some variation of a yokozuna-ozeki to cover for the absence of a second proper ozeki. It's been quite a long time since that was last an issue (and it got handled in several different ways before), so any appeals to past decision-making will hold very limited value. We'll see if they do the straight-forward thing with Kakuryu as a Y-O on the West side, or something different.

   1-3-11 Hakuho        Y    Kakuryu     1-4-10
    11-4  Takakeisho    O    Goeido        5-10 (i)
    10-5  Asanoyama     S    Takayasu      6-9  (x)
(x)  5-10 Abi           K    Daieisho      7-8  (x)

(o)  9-6  Endo          M1
(o) 11-4  Hokutofuji    M2   Mitakeumi     7-8  (x)
                        M3
     8-7  Okinoumi      M4   Shodai       13-2  (o)
                        M5   Enho          8-7
                        M6
                        M7   Onosho        9-6
                        M8   Ryuden       10-5
                        M9   Yutakayama   11-4
                        M10
                        M11  Kagayaki     10-5
                        ...
    11-4  Kiribayama    M17  Tokushoryu   14-1


Goeido's retirement has likely also, in conjunction with the Day 15 juryo results, served to clear up any possible difficulties in assigning rikishi to the two sekitori divisions. Nishikigi posted his 7th win in a row to clinch the one promotion spot that was definitely available via Kotoeko's exit from the top division, and Daiamami moved himself into position as the #2 contender with a clear victory over yusho winner Terunofuji, who "only" finished 13-2 in the end. Daiamami should be inheriting Goeido's vacated position now. Both J5's Wakatakakage and Daishoho, who could have earned promotion-worthy 10-5 records, were defeated on senshuraku and definitely won't be going up now.

The J2 pair of youngster Kotonowaka and veteran Hidenoumi did grab last-minute kachikoshi, but are unlikely to receive consideration over Daiamami, let alone over any existing maegashira. All that ought to be good news for injured duo Meisei and Kotoyuki, who really don't deserve to get dropped to juryo now with no outstanding results there to replace them, as well as for Shimanoumi who would have been the first active rikishi on the bubble. Kaisei and Tsurugisho were victorious on the final day to remove all doubt about themselves.

As for Terunofuji, my provisional banzuke projection only has him at J4e now, plus/minus one spot, so not even as a particularly close miss for a promotion. It doesn't help that the upper juryo ranks will be somewhat crowded even with the "free" spot gained through Goeido's intai. It may be for the best for the ex-ozeki anyway, another tournament in juryo to get more battle-ready for makuuchi won't hurt.

                        M3   Kotoyuki     kyujo (o)
                        M4
(o) 1-7-6 Meisei        M5
                        ...
(o)  6-9  Tsurugisho    M12
                        M13  Kotoeko       2-13 (x)
                        M14  Shimanoumi    6-9  (o)
                        M15
                        M16  Kaisei        8-7  (o)
                        M17

                        J1
     8-7  Kotonowaka    J2   Hidenoumi     8-7
                        J3
(o) 11-4  Nishikigi     J4
     9-6  Wakatakakage  J5   Daishoho      9-6
(o) 11-4  Daiamami      J6
                        ...
                        J13  Terunofuji   13-2


The makushita "playoff" for a possible promotion to juryo saw Akiseyama come through yet again - just like four months ago, he's turned a 2-3 into a 4-3, this time ultimately at the expense of young prospect Naya, who finishes 3-4. And with Goeido out, it looks like his promotion chance has turned into a near-certainty. He has been helped by fellow veterans Toyonoshima and Sokokurai blowing their last shot at a lucky reprieve, as they're almost certainly unkeepable at 4-11 after their senshuraku losses. Chiyootori did come through for a win to finish 6-9, and it was originally going to be between him, Akiseyama and absent Tomokaze for two slots, which could arguably have gone any which way. Now with Goeido's spot in play, the most straight-forward solution is of course to put all three in juryo.

(?) kyujo Tomokaze      J1
(x)  4-11 Sokokurai     J10
(x)  4-11 Toyonoshima   J11  Irodori      1-6-8 (x)
                        J12
(?)  6-9  Chiyootori    J13
                        J14  Sakigake      6-9  (x)

                        Ms1  Wakamotoharu  6-1  (o)
(o)  5-2  Midorifuji    Ms2
                        Ms3  Chiyonoumi    5-2  (o)
(o)  4-3  Akiseyama     Ms4  Hakuyozan     6-1  (o)
(x)  3-4  Naya          Ms5
                        Ms6  Asabenkei     4-3
                        Ms7  Fujiazuma     4-3
                        Ms8
                        Ms9  Kotodaigo     5-2

I've added the rikishi theoretically next in line as promotion candidates to the table. I guess Asabenkei for Tomokaze isn't a totally unrealistic possibility given the committee's habit of being harsh to fully absent rikishi, while Fujiazuma or Kotodaigo for Chiyootori would be very surprising to me.

And that's done now, I think. Only a few hours until we'll find out the juryo promotees, as well as whether there have been any other high-profile retirements to accompany Goeido's. Thanks to everybody contributing to the discussion!

Edited by Asashosakari
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They've announced Midorifuji, Wakamotoharu, Chiyonoumi, Akiseyama, and Hakuyozan are up from Makushita to Juryo
 

 

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The final records of the former sekitori bunch.

new KK: Akiseyama, Asabenkei, Toyohibiki

new MK: Chiyonokuni, Kitaharima, Masunoyama

Chiyonokuni with another bad basho finish - from 3-1 to MK in Kyushu, this time from 3-2. Astonishing result for Asabenkei, however, after he looked totally done for with his inability to get up following his Day 8 win, and subsequent loss by fusen the next day.

Toyohibiki has completed a full year of nothing but 4-3 (four times) and 3-4 (twice) records. Masunoyama is makekoshi for the fourth straight time.
 

Record   Rank   Shikona Heya Age Out HiRk M# J#
2-5 Ms1e Kaisho Asakayama 24 1 J11   2
6-1 Ms1w Wakamotoharu Arashio 26 1 J10   2
5-2 Ms3w Chiyonoumi Kokonoe 27 2 J8   8
4-3 Ms4e Akiseyama Kise 34 1 M16 1 33
6-1 Ms4w Hakuyozan Takadagawa 24 4 J3   6
kyujo Ms5w Ichiyamamoto Nishonoseki 26 1 J6   3
 
3-4 Ms6e Chiyonokuni Kokonoe 29 4 M1 25 16
4-3 Ms6w Asabenkei Takasago 30 10 J7   7
4-3 Ms7w Fujiazuma Tamanoi 32 17 M4 17 18
4-3 Ms8w Gokushindo Nishikido 23 7 J13   1
0-3-4 Ms9e Gagamaru Kise 32 1 K 36 23
4-3 Ms10e Toyohibiki Sakaigawa 35 12 M2 52 14
3-4 Ms11e Seiro Shikoroyama 31 2 M14 3 31
5-2 Ms12e Chiyonoo Kokonoe 28 7 M15 2 31
3-4 Ms12w Kitaharima Yamahibiki 33 14 M15 1 24
2-5 Ms14w Sagatsukasa Irumagawa 38 35 M9 6 22
 
4-3 Ms16e Kizenryu Kise 34 9 J11   9
6-1 Ms18e Daiseido Kise 27 5 J12   3
5-2 Ms18w Chiyoarashi Kokonoe 28 39 J10   4
3-4 Ms19e Nionoumi Yamahibiki 33 39 M16 1 12
2-5 Ms22e Keitenkai Onomatsu 29 44 J11   1
3-4 Ms24w Kagamio Kagamiyama 31 22 M9 7 14
2-5 Ms27w Tokushinho Kise 35 25 J6   27
 
6-1 Ms32e Jokoryu Kise 31 6 K 15 13
6-1 Ms35w Ryuko Onoe 21 3 J12   1
3-4 Ms37w Higonojo Kise 35 34 J9   4
kyujo (i) Ms48w Arawashi Minezaki 33 3 M2 21 16
4-3 Ms55e Amakaze Oguruma 28 11 M13 1 18
 
5-2 Sd5e Takaryu Kise 27 27 J13   1
6-1 Sd13w Asahisho Tomozuna 30 16 M11 4 30
3-4 Sd27e Masunoyama Chiganoura 29 29 M4 13 12
kyujo Sd68w Hitenryu Tatsunami 35 50 J13   2
2-5 Sd73w Dairaido Takadagawa 39 80 J2   6
4-3 Sd77w Yoshiazuma Tamanoi 42 32 M12 3 18
6-1 Sd92w Kaonishiki Azumazeki 41 50 J6   2
 
7-0 Y Jd28e Ura Kise 27 12 M4 5 6


With Hitenryu and possibly Dairaido we'll have ex-sekitori down in jonidan for the fifth straight tournament in March.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Nice too see that Asahisho is still too good for Sandanme. I'd love to see him back in Juryo someday.

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