Sign in to follow this  
Rocks

Games Talk - Hatsu 2020

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Rocks said:

ISP 165-12

DST 276-4

Could someone please explain to me why the Endo-Enho match was picked for these games?

I don't understand the problem here. You and hundreds of others got it wrong, yay.  What does the pick difference have to do with anything? I understand if the 165 got it right- it would mean it was too easy.  But they didn't. I can speak for myself- I didn't think for a second that  this would be the pick-difference. It is not reasonable, like I have said many times before. Also, my ultimate goal in picking is to kill as many of you as possible. It worked. Every day that I see more wrong guesses than right ones in ISP makes me happy. I went with Enhou in ISP and Endou on 5 in  Tipspiel- my strategy in the games differs for each one.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Well, virtually everyone made the same pick. No surprise. I don't see the fun in that.

Understatement of the year. No surprise? BIG surprise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For what it's worth, I had it as the second strongest pick between both divisions, with Endo better than 69% to win.  I was surprised to see it selected for both games, and I'm not all that surprised by the disparity in pick choices, either.

Whether harder-to-call bouts make for better fantasy games is an entirely different question.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Understatement of the year. No surprise? BIG surprise.

I wasn't talking about the outcome. If everyone picks the same person who wins doesn't matter much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

I don't understand the problem here. You and hundreds of others got it wrong, yay.  What does the pick difference have to do with anything? I understand if the 165 got it right- it would mean it was too easy.  But they didn't. I can speak for myself- I didn't think for a second that  this would be the pick-difference. It is not reasonable, like I have said many times before. Also, my ultimate goal in picking is to kill as many of you as possible. It worked. Every day that I see more wrong guesses than right ones in ISP makes me happy. I went with Enhou in ISP and Endou on 5 in  Tipspiel- my strategy in the games differs for each one.

The problem is the pick is almost the functional equivalent of picking a fusen bout with regards to the game. The outcome, while pleasing to you,  has little impact on the overall game. It provides little movement in the standings. It makes the game less competitive. It essentially wastes a day in what is a very short game to begin with. The outcome of the match doesn't change the fact the pick was too easy. I have no idea why you would not expect so large a pick difference. I was shocked to see even 12 had picked Enho. There was no logical reason to do so. But ISP does have more casual players who are likely to pick based on desire for an outcome alone.

 

As far as your "ultimate goal" I would have to ask how you came to thinking this is a desirable goal? I would think that in running a game your goal would be to have as many players as possible believe they can win for as long as possible. if this is the goal why not allow picking Yokozuna and Ozeki from the start in CG? Or the same rikishi more than 3 times? It's pretty rare a rikishi goes 15-0. In doing so you would be sure to kill large numbers of players on an upset. At least that would probably keep more players in the game longer. I'm not advocating for that, just using it as an example.

Edited by Rocks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Easy, man. That horse of an argument has already been ridden to death many times before. Endo-Enho was simply just to funny to pass.

Move on!

Edited by Jakusotsu
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, as your ISP Banzuke maker I must admit that I don't like lop-sided Bouts such as Endo vs. Enho, regardless who wins in the end. When too many players pick the same Rikishi they will more or less finish with similar scores which makes my work much harder. It is a horror when you have 85%+ of Makuuchi and Juryo ranked players finish with scores between 10-5 and 5-10.

Ideally a 50/50 split between the selected Rikishi should be the aim every day. This would more or less guarantee a Gaussian distribution curve in the end with results for 85%+ of the above mentioned players from 13-2 to 2-13. From that perspective my Bout of the day should have been Myogiryu vs. Takayasu. Toto distribution for this Bout was 40-2-39. Brilliant.

Ganzohnesushi

 

       
   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

Toto distribution for this Bout was 40-2-39. Brilliant.

   

Does everybody have access to this info? I've been poking around the site for that stuff and couldn't find it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Kaito said:

Does everybody have access to this info? I've been poking around the site for that stuff and couldn't find it.

In former years the pick distribution was visible directly on the web page. Unfortunately this feature isn't available anymore. I don't have direct access to this information either but from time to time a fairy godmother provides me with that stuff.

Ganzohnesushi

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

In former years the pick distribution was visible directly on the web page. Unfortunately this feature isn't available anymore. I don't have direct access to this information either but from time to time a fairy godmother provides me with that stuff.

I miss this statistic from the past at the Sekitori-Toto very much

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Rocks said:

As far as your "ultimate goal" I would have to ask how you came to thinking this is a desirable goal? I would think that in running a game your goal would be to have as many players as possible believe they can win for as long as possible. if this is the goal why not allow picking Yokozuna and Ozeki from the start in CG? Or the same rikishi more than 3 times? It's pretty rare a rikishi goes 15-0. In doing so you would be sure to kill large numbers of players on an upset. At least that would probably keep more players in the game longer. I'm not advocating for that, just using it as an example.

Yokozuna-Ozeki picks were initially allowed in CG. This caused a lot of people to play on forever, which in your world I guess is good for the game. We disagree on this. I want to make CG as difficult as possible to make it past day 5. It's a question of your outlook . I'm happy that your hindsight is good. Try guessing the split before the results are in. I bet  you get 90% of the bouts wrong. In a perfect world, I should pick even splits every day. See how many bouts are close to being even splits every day. I also try to pick the interesting bouts. Picking Shimanoumi- Kiribayama bouts on a daily basis is BORING and the game will be BORING. Dead horse, but I don't mind beating it endlessly.

Edited by Kintamayama

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

 

my Bout of the day should have been Myogiryu vs. Takayasu. Toto distribution for this Bout was 40-2-39. Brilliant.

Ganzohnesushi

 

       
   

I am not blessed with foresight. Ideally, you are right.  And you would have guessed that this bout would be an even split? Have a go at picking tomorrow's  bout. Let me know what you chose and that will be the bout of the day. Interesting to see how that split goes. 

Edited by Kintamayama

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Rocks said:

I wasn't talking about the outcome. If everyone picks the same person who wins doesn't matter much.

Except everyone picked the one who lost.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

I also try to pick the interesting bouts. Picking Shimanoumi- Kiribayama bouts on a daily basis is BORING and the game will be BORING

Exactly. Don't disregard the excitement factor for the players. Some feel-good moments now and then are needed to keep them interested, and choosing between Endo and Enho is the cherry on top of an otherwise stale bread.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

I am not blessed with foresight. Ideally, you are right.  And you would have guessed that this bout would be an even split? Have a go at picking tomorrow's  bout. Let me know what you chose and that will be the bout of the day. Interesting to see how that split goes. 

I did not critizise your selections, I just expressed my view as your ISP Banzuke maker. From that perspective I hate such 165-12 distributions. But you are absolutely right, picking Bouts like Shimanoumi - Kiribayama on a daily basis is BORING. How about Endo vs. Mitakeumi tomorrow? Expecting a split somewhere between 65/35 and 55/45 in Endo's favour.

Ganzohnesushi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

I did not critizise your selections, I just expressed my view as your ISP Banzuke maker. From that perspective I hate such 165-12 distributions. But you are absolutely right, picking Bouts like Shimanoumi - Kiribayama on a daily basis is BORING. How about Endo vs. Mitakeumi tomorrow? Expecting a split somewhere between 65/35 and 55/45 in Endo's favour.

Ganzohnesushi

Ok.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Yokozuna-Ozeki picks were initially allowed in CG. This caused a lot of people to play on forever, which in your world I guess is good for the game. We disagree on this. I want to make CG as difficult as possible to make it past day 5. It's a question of your outlook . I'm happy that your hindsight is good. Try guessing the split before the results are in. I bet  you get 90% of the bouts wrong. In a perfect world, I should pick even splits every day. See how many bouts are close to being even splits every day. I also try to pick the interesting bouts. Picking Shimanoumi- Kiribayama bouts on a daily basis is BORING and the game will be BORING. Dead horse, but I don't mind beating it endlessly.

I agree. Why do we have to have '50-50' bouts every day? I quite like the odd one-sided one (as it looks on paper) thrown into the mix. Wish I'd had the balls to pick Enho...I nearly did because I am miles behind and so my only hope would be outlandish predictions. But maybe I am Shimanoumi vs Kiribayama. ;)

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oracle Day 9. Choshu-Yuki fell off the pace a bit but we are seeing some contraction of scores now.

Leader: Norizo
Choshu-Yuki -6
Pandaazuma -9
Gansekiiwa, Owl -10
Haidouzo -11
Gurowake -12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Pandaazuma said:

I agree. Why do we have to have '50-50' bouts every day? I quite like the odd one-sided one (as it looks on paper) thrown into the mix. 

Honestly, I didn't think it would be THAT one-sided.  I picked Enhou here because i had a feeling he would win, but picked against him everywhere else. And not picking the first ever Enhou-Endou bout seems to me a crime..

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Kintamayama said:

Honestly, I didn't think it would be THAT one-sided.  I picked Enhou here because i had a feeling he would win, but picked against him everywhere else. And not picking the first ever Enhou-Endou bout seems to me a crime..

I've noted a certain bandwagon effect among foreign sumo fans. Popular Japanese rikishi tend to get slated and seriously underrated. I seriously considered predicting 8 wins for Enho in Oracle but ended up going with 7 as I thought he would probably lose to the Yokozuna duo. He's better than a lot of people think he is. And trickier. And smarter! (See today's bout).

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Yokozuna-Ozeki picks were initially allowed in CG. This caused a lot of people to play on forever, which in your world I guess is good for the game. We disagree on this. I want to make CG as difficult as possible to make it past day 5. It's a question of your outlook . I'm happy that your hindsight is good. Try guessing the split before the results are in. I bet  you get 90% of the bouts wrong. In a perfect world, I should pick even splits every day. See how many bouts are close to being even splits every day. I also try to pick the interesting bouts. Picking Shimanoumi- Kiribayama bouts on a daily basis is BORING and the game will be BORING. Dead horse, but I don't mind beating it endlessly.

It wouldn't be good for the game which is why I said I wasn't advocating it. So, we agree. It would just make too many basho go to 15-0 and tiebreakers and that's never the best way to determine a winner.  I can see your desire here and changing the rules to not allow Y/Os does achieve what you want, which is to effect the outcome of the game. Picking a match like Endo-Enho has the exact OPPOSITE effect. It does everything possible to ensure the status quo will remain in effect for another day.

Hindsight, in this case, has nothing do do with it. The pick spread here was entirely predictable and played out as almost anyone would have predicted it. To think otherwise there has to be some scenario, outside of "Hey, I REALLY like Enho", to pick Enho. Based on the most typical things used to predict a match there is no scenario.

 

Has one dominated their match ups? Never faced each other. Injuries? Nope.

Is Enho taller or stronger? No. The exact opposite.

Has Endo been doing bad? He's maintained a place in joi for the past 5 basho even making sanyaku. Having one of the best years of his career.

Well, Enho has done well too. So well he has earned his his FIRST basho at M5 or higher. Which is great. But as everybody knows it's also the place most rikishi put up a bad number.

Most importantly,  how have the rikishi been doing THIS basho?

Enho had lost 4 of his last 6 matches. The wins coming  against Meisei wrestling with 1 arm and on his way to kyujo along with Shohozan who slipped and fell. The only good win he had was against Takarafuji all the way back on Day 1. By any standard Enho was having a bad basho.

Endo? He was 6-1 having devastated the sanyaku and earned 2 kinboshi. Face-planting Hakuho of all people. The GOAT. His only loss coming against Takakesiho, who outside of injury is among the best rikishi in the past 2 years. Oh yeah, he was also tied for the yusho lead.

Now, I ask again. Under what scenario does one imagine this will be anything other than a 90-10 split? Don't get me wrong. I'm not suggesting I am great at picking the split on these things. There is many a day I see the split and see it's even on a match that was a no brainer as far as I thought.  And I make plenty of gut calls in picks. But if I had any inkling in my gut to pick Enho here I would have put it down to being more about the McDonald's I had for lunch than anything else and chose Endo.

This match was picked for the reasons stated. It was high profile and fun, at least for the person picking the match.  I would not say that is true for those picking who will win. Part of what makes doing that is reviewing the history. Maybe being so tough I am even compelled to rewatch the video for this basho of the rikishis matches. In other words being forced to spend some time with the pick. In this case it took me longer to to move the mouse pointer across the screen or type to pick Endo then it took to think about the pick. Having been wrong doesn't change that. The same way it had little to no effect on those 2 games. I can not only feel safe picking Endo in ISP and putting him 5, or at worst 4, in DST because I could be sure almost everyone I was competing against would do the same. Heck, I'm practically compelled to do so. Doing otherwise would have been the equivalent of picking one legged Tsurugisho over Tokushoryu on Day 9.

Finally I think picking this match night have actually decreased to some degree the enjoyment of watching this match for some players. I have never been a Endo or Enho fan. Some are. Some are both. Pandaazuma likes Enho as many do.  They also want to win the games. I wonder, even if you admire Enho pulling off the win, that enjoyment was decreased to some degree by having it in their minds  they had picked Endo to win?  For me? I would prefer high profile matches to be free of such considerations when I watch them. In fact many of the boring picks made for the games actually makes me care about that match which adds to my enjoyment of the day.

 

Want to pick matches that are likely to be lopsided in picks? Beat down those Machines? Go for it. But do it in matches that at least give some reason to pick the upset. A good match today is  Tokushoryu - Chiyomaru. The machines will be wanting the former, their record and my gut is telling me that later. Chiyomaru is a funny guy to pick but I know this, he gives certain people fits.  I am glad to see it in DST. It will add to my enjoyment tonight. Because otherwise I couldn't give a rat's ass about that match. I'll need no help in being interested in the Takakeisho-Enho match. As far as an even split with some profile I would agree Endo-Mitakeumi is best for tonight. Although I expect the split will be less even than it would have been  given Mita winning the day before against someone he struggles with and Endo losing so unceremoniously to Abi.

Edited by Rocks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well explained. I still disagree since where you lose interest, I gain it.  I don't think anyone regards isp as a game you play against someone else, compared to tipspiel, say. I play the games and none of my guesses make me more or less interested in that match.Except maybe bench where I get more involved than in the rest as I have a direct opponent. And as I have explained. I don't choose bouts that I think would be lopsided. I choose the ones I think are interesting. I think you put a lot of effort in your picks judging by what you wrote. Me, it takes me a second. I see the head to heads, current scores and that's it. I think most players do. All the stuff you wrote about Enhou beating Meisei a few days ago etc, I highly doubt there are many players who check out this stuff. Props to you and those that do. But bottom line, are they winning, or is that not important? Check out the ISP splits over the first 9 days, you might be surprised. I am constantly surprised. And if I would have thought Enhou stood no chance I wouldn't have picked that bout . I thought he could pull it off, and he did. He also beat Goueidou today. Even though he beat Meisei a few days ago.And even though Goueidou is taller. And even though there are no visible injuries. And even though Goueidou is a veteran Ozeki. And Enhou just arrived. Anyhow YMMV. 

A few PS:

Not allowing Y/O picks is for Chaingang, not ISP, and ISP is the subject here. 

If you go by parameters like who is stronger or who is taller I don't think you'll get far in these games. It's not two bouts out of three-it's one bout and anything  can happen in one bout.

As for not changing the status quo, well, three of the 10 leaders that day got it right, changing their status quo, one of them jumping into second place . Of course for others nothing much changed since  a huge majority lost , but regarding the yusho arasoi, no status quo there, as  players dropped back a win. So it did change. The unbeaten leader went with Enhou, so maybe it wasn't that off the wall after all.

Today (day 9)-the split was 89-86. Status quo? Six of first ten places remained in the top ten.

Edited by Kintamayama
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

A few PS:

Not allowing Y/O picks is for Chaingang, not ISP, and ISP is the subject here. 

Yes, I know. I merely gave it as an example with regards to your ultimate goal. As I pointed out, twice, it was not meant as anything else.

1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

If you go by parameters like who is stronger or who is taller I don't think you'll get far in these games. It's not two bouts out of three-it's one bout and anything  can happen in one bout.

Yes, I that was listed as one of many factors. Not sole criterion. And I am aware of the adage of "On any given Sunday..." but that won't be putting the odds makers out of work any time soon. Odd sumo had Endo as only a 2-1 favorite (Yes, I know the formula doesn't really work like that) which was Odd to me. Which probably explains why only 1 person picked him despite many needing a big win. I would have said 4-5 at least. To put actual money on Enho you would have had to give me 9 or 10 to win and even then I would have thought twice about it and it wouldn't have been much money. 

1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

As for not changing the status quo, well, three of the 10 leaders that day got it right, changing their status quo, one of them jumping into second place . Of course for others nothing much changed since  a huge majority lost , but regarding the yusho arasoi, no status quo there, as  players dropped back a win. So it did change. The unbeaten leader went with Enhou, so maybe it wasn't that off the wall after all.

Today (day 9)-the split was 89-86. Status quo? Six of first ten places remained in the top ten.

Were you attempting to break a log jam at the top in picking Endo-Enho? There were only 2 players still undefeated on Day 7.

The status quo isn't related to 1, a few players or the Top 10, it encompasses the entire field.  Being one of the few picking a long shot is always going to pay off big. For individual players it changes their status quo radically.  That is the entire point in picking a long shot. That is why players make long shot picks in games like TUG and Odd. Especially later in the game when they are reduced to long shots to attempt to gain on the field because their record is poor or they are trying to improve their tiebreaker in a game like TTT. Fortunately for 3 of the leaders it paid off on Day 8. But I would not think that is typical.

As far as for this particular ISP I don't think many would describe it, and the Top 10,  as typical. In any case on Day 8 3 of the top 10 changed position. On day 9, 4. More importantly only 8% of the field changed position relative to each other on Day 8, 50% did so on Day 9. People moved and people moved down. Large numbers of them. That is changing the status quo.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Rocks said:

 

Were you attempting to break a log jam at the top in picking Endo-Enho? There were only 2 players still undefeated on Day 7.

 

No, I never attempt to break logjams, since if it backfires, it's a bigger logjam. I don't look for the lopsided ones. I look for the more or less even ones the way I see it, or the interesting ones that would not be too lopsided.   As I have repeatedly stated, I never dreamed it would be so lopsided. And Day 6, Takakeishou-Mitakeumi.  143-33? Really? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

And Day 6, Takakeishou-Mitakeumi.  143-33? Really? 

That seems a bit lopsided but it is an Ozeki versus an M2. Yes, Mitakeumi is better than that, but not much so in this and last basho.  The opposite for Takakeisho. Plus Taka had beaten Mita 3 of the prior 4.

I would expect it about 66-34 for Takakeisho. Given that many of these players play a lot of the games and virtually all of them picked Takakeisho as their Ozeki pick I'm not surprised in went to 72-25. People will, subconsciously or not, pick who they want to win unless it's too far fetched like Endo-Enho.

I've picked Ikioi too many times this basho exactly because I think he should and want him to win. He's looking terrible this basho. I finally picked against him last night. And lost of course.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this