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Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Hatsu 2020

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C'mon, I'm not that late. ;-)

Here's the ballot for the decade-opening edition of LKS:

 1. Kotoshoho       7
 2. Abi             6  [score?]
 3. Kotonowaka      6
 4. Roga            6*
 5. Terunofuji      5
 6. Yamatoarashi    5
 7. Amakaze         5
 8. Suzuki          5
 9. Daikisho        5
10. Kotosusumu      5
11. Ayakaze         5
12. Yutakayama      4
13. Akua            4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)


The scoring and thus your game assignment:

  • For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
  • For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 13 guys up there and the further 12 rikishi (3 'veterans' and 8 regular newcomers + SdTd Shiraishi) who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 25. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 12 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Kotoshoho.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

1. Kotoshoho KKMK
2. Abi W-L
3. Kotonowaka KKMK
4. Roga KKMK
5. Terunofuji KKMK
6. Yamatoarashi KKMK
7. Amakaze KKMK
8. Suzuki KKMK
9. Daikisho KKMK
10. Kotosusumu KKMK
11. Ayakaze KKMK
12. Yutakayama KKMK
13. Akua KKMK

TB xx

---

Note: Kotoyuki was scheduled to be part of this edition, but as he's among on the Day 1 kyujo I've omitted him from the ballot altogether.

Edited by Asashosakari
  • Haha 2

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  • 1. Kotoshoho MK
    2. Abi 8-7
    3. Kotonowaka KK
    4. Roga KK
    5. Terunofuji KK
    6. Yamatoarashi MK
    7. Amakaze KK
    8. Suzuki KK
    9. Daikisho KK
    10. Kotosusumu KK
    11. Ayakaze KK
    12. Yutakayama MK
    13. Akua MK

TB 17

---

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1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Abi MK
3. Kotonowaka KK
4. Roga KK
5. Terunofuji KK
6. Yamatoarashi MK
7. Amakaze KK
8. Suzuki KK
9. Daikisho KK
10. Kotosusumu KK
11. Ayakaze KK
12. Yutakayama KK
13. Akua KK

TB 18

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 1. Kotoshoho       KK
 2. Abi                 8
 3. Kotonowaka      KK
 4. Roga            KK
 5. Terunofuji      KK
 6. Yamatoarashi        MK
 7. Amakaze         KK
 8. Suzuki          KK
 9. Daikisho        KK
10. Kotosusumu          MK
11. Ayakaze              MK
12. Yutakayama      KK
13. Akua            KK

TB: 13

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 1. Kotoshoho       kk
 2. Abi             mk  
 3. Kotonowaka      kk
 4. Roga            kk
 5. Terunofuji      kk
 6. Yamatoarashi    kk
 7. Amakaze         mk
 8. Suzuki          kk
 9. Daikisho        kk
10. Kotosusumu      kk
11. Ayakaze         mk
12. Yutakayama      kk
13. Akua            mk

tb: 18

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1. Kotoshoho MK
2. Abi MK
3. Kotonowaka KK
4. Roga KK
5. Terunofuji KK
6. Yamatoarashi MK
7. Amakaze KK
8. Suzuki KK
9. Daikisho KK
10. Kotosusumu MK
11. Ayakaze MK
12. Yutakayama KK
13. Akua MK

TB :15

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1. Kotoshoho         KK
2. Abi                       8
3. Kotonowaka       KK
4. Roga                    KK
5. Terunofuji           KK
6. Yamatoarashi               MK
7. Amakaze                       MK
8. Suzuki                            MK
9. Daikisho                        MK
10. Kotosusumu              MK
11. Ayakaze                      MK
12. Yutakayama               MK
13. Akua                            MK

TB 11

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23 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Simplified entry template:

1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Abi 8-7
3. Kotonowaka KK
4. Roga KK
5. Terunofuji KK
6. Yamatoarashi MK
7. Amakaze KK
8. Suzuki MK
9. Daikisho MK
10. Kotosusumu MK
11. Ayakaze MK
12. Yutakayama KK
13. Akua MK

TB 13

 

 

Edited by Sakura

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1. Kotoshoho MK
2. Abi 6-9
3. Kotonowaka KK
4. Roga MK
5. Terunofuji KK
6. Yamatoarashi KK
7. Amakaze MK
8. Suzuki KK
9. Daikisho MK
10. Kotosusumu MK
11. Ayakaze MK
12. Yutakayama KK
13. Akua KK

 

TB 11

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1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Abi 6-9
3. Kotonowaka KK
4. Roga KK
5. Terunofuji KK
6. Yamatoarashi MK
7. Amakaze KK
8. Suzuki MK
9. Daikisho KK
10. Kotosusumu MK
11. Ayakaze MK
12. Yutakayama KK
13. Akua MK

TB:12

Pandaazuma

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 1. Kotoshoho       KK
 2. Abi             8-7
 3. Kotonowaka      KK
 4. Roga            KK
 5. Terunofuji      KK
 6. Yamatoarashi     KK
 7. Amakaze         KK

 8. Suzuki          KK
 9. Daikisho        KK
10. Kotosusumu      KK
11. Ayakaze         KK
12. Yutakayama      KK
13. Akua            KK

TB: [16]

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1. Kotoshoho          KK
 2. Abi                      mk
 3. Kotonowaka      KK
 4. Roga                   KK
 5. Terunofuji          KK
 6. Yamatoarashi   mk
 7. Amakaze           KK
 8. Suzuki                KK
 9. Daikisho             KK
10. Kotosusumu     mk
11. Ayakaze             mk
12. Yutakayama      KK
13. Akua                   mk

TB: 14

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  • 1. Kotoshoho KK
    2. Abi 8-7
    3. Kotonowaka KK
    4. Roga KK
    5. Terunofuji KK
    6. Yamatoarashi KK
    7. Amakaze KK
    8. Suzuki KK
    9. Daikisho MK
    10. Kotosusumu KK
    11. Ayakaze MK
    12. Yutakayama KK
    13. Akua MK

TB 14

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1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Abi 8-7
3. Kotonowaka KK
4. Roga KK
5. Terunofuji KK
6. Yamatoarashi MK
7. Amakaze MK
8. Suzuki KK
9. Daikisho MK
10. Kotosusumu MK
11. Ayakaze MK
12. Yutakayama MK
13. Akua MK

TB 13

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1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Abi MK
3. Kotonowaka KK
4. Roga KK
5. Terunofuji KK
6. Yamatoarashi MK
7. Amakaze MK
8. Suzuki MK
9. Daikisho MK
10. Kotosusumu MK
11. Ayakaze MK
12. Yutakayama KK
13. Akua MK 

TB :13

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1. Kotoshoho       KK
 2. Abi             6-9
 3. Kotonowaka      KK
 4. Roga            KK
 5. Terunofuji      KK
 6. Yamatoarashi    MK
 7. Amakaze         KK
 8. Suzuki          KK
 9. Daikisho        KK
10. Kotosusumu      KK
11. Ayakaze         MK
12. Yutakayama      KK
13. Akua            MK

TB: 13

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+ Kotoshoho
- Abi
+ Kotonowaka
+ Roga
+ Terunofuji
- Yamatoarashi
+ Amakaze
+ Suzuki
- Daikisho
+ Kotosusumu
- Ayakaze
- Yutakayama
- Akua

TB 13

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(Now this is late...:-() Welcome to the 17 participants for this first LKS edition of 2020, including returning Joaoiyama who was last active two years ago!

The selection stats:

Player K'sho Abi K'waka Roga Teru Yamato Ama Suzuki Daiki K'susu Aya Yutaka Akua   TB   Cons
robnplunder - + 8-7 + + + - + + + + + - - 17 1.73
Athenayama + - MK + + + - + + + + + + + 18 1.51
Profomisakari + + 8-7 + + + - + + + - - + + 13 1.23
Joaoiyama + - MK + + + + - + + + - + - 18 1.47
ryafuji - - MK + + + - + + + - - + - 15 1.30
chishafuwaku + + 8-7 + + + - - - - - - - - 11 1.59
Sakura + + 8-7 + + + - + - - - - + - 13 1.30
WAKATAKE - - MK + - + + - + - - - + + 11 2.00
Pandaazuma + - MK + + + - + - + - - + - 12 1.26
Ryoshishokunin + + 8-7 + + + - + + - - - - + 14 1.41
Jejima + + 8-7 + + + + + + + + + + + 16 1.69
Tenshinhan + - MK + + + - + + + - - + - 14 1.02
Holleshoryu + + 8-7 + + + + + + - + - + - 14 1.37
Tsuchinoninjin + + 8-7 + + + - - + - - - - - 13 1.41
Achiyama + - MK + + + - - - - - - + - 13 1.43
Rocks + - MK + + + - + + + + - + - 13 1.11
Asashosakari + - MK + + + - + + - + - - - 13 1.30
  14:3 8:9 17:0 16:1 17:0 4:13 12:5 13:4 9:8 7:10 3:14 12:5 5:12    
Results 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0    

  

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The round-up of early results:

Day 7 - First blood was drawn not on the ballot but in the backup squad, where Tochimitsuru sadly completed a minimum-time makekoshi at 0-4 to end his KK streak.

Day 8 - Conversely, the earliest possible kachikoshi for Terunofuji in his return to sekitori status. As this was a unanimous prediction, it had no real impact on our game, though. The first off-ballot rikishi also secured his KK here, and so Hakuho's latest protegé Toma will be joining the game proper for March.

Day 9 - Another long-suffering (ex-)sekitori reached KK, namely Amakaze in his first tournament back in makushita. Still a long way to go... I won't post a standings table as of this day yet - if you got it right, you were tied for first, if you got it wrong, tied for last. ;-)


Day 10 - And now the results start(ed) coming in bunches. Two more scoring decisions, with Yutakayama achieving kachikoshi and Yamatoarashi falling to MK. These were both majority picks so a lot of entrants scored two points. The backup guys were also busy and produced two more KK for new top talents Tokisakae and Kitanowaka, but also a makekoshi for less heralded Kiyota. And in addition it became known that Denuma, who had had to withdraw with a 2-1 record after Day 6, was not going to return to action for Days 11/12 and so his makekoshi was also assured.
 

Day 10:
4/13 Decisions, TB 6-21
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Profomisakari 4 13
1 Rocks 4 13
1 Sakura 4 13
1 Tenshinhan 4 14
5 Pandaazuma 4 12
5 ryafuji 4 15
7 Athenayama 4 18
8 Achiyama 3 13
8 Asashosakari 3 13
8 Holleshoryu 3 14
8 Ryoshishokunin 3 14
12 Jejima 3 16
13 robnplunder 3 17
14 Tsuchinoninjin 2 13
15 chishafuwaku 2 11
15 WAKATAKE 2 11
17 Joaoiyama 2 18

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Day 11

Ayakaze, not to be confused with Amakaze, has found himself newly makekoshi, ending his KK-streaking comeback from two missed tournaments. Again the great majority of players predicted this correctly.

Another much-heralded newcomer on the backup squad decided his Hatsu basho fate, but for sandanme tsukedashi starter Shiraishi it's via MK, so no Haru ballot for him. We did get one new kachikoshi as well, courtesy of national university grad Shoji whose fifth straight KK will finally see him back for his second makushita appearance next basho, nearly two years after the first.
 

Day 11:
5/13 Decisions, TB 7-19
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Profomisakari 5 13
1 Rocks 5 13
1 Sakura 5 13
4 Pandaazuma 5 12
4 Tenshinhan 5 14
6 ryafuji 5 15
7 Achiyama 4 13
7 Asashosakari 4 13
9 Holleshoryu 4 14
9 Ryoshishokunin 4 14
11 Athenayama 4 18
12 Tsuchinoninjin 3 13
13 chishafuwaku 3 11
13 WAKATAKE 3 11
15 Jejima 3 16
16 robnplunder 3 17
17 Joaoiyama 3 18

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Day 12

And back to KK news, this time for top Mongolian newcomer Roga. Only one unfortunate entrant decided to pick against that outcome, so it's another barrage of points for the standings.

No off-ballot updates on this day for a change.
 

Day 12:
6/13 Decisions, TB 8-19
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Profomisakari 6 13
1 Rocks 6 13
1 Sakura 6 13
1 Tenshinhan 6 14
5 Pandaazuma 6 12
5 ryafuji 6 15
7 Achiyama 5 13
7 Asashosakari 5 13
7 Holleshoryu 5 14
7 Ryoshishokunin 5 14
11 Athenayama 5 18
12 Tsuchinoninjin 4 13
13 chishafuwaku 4 11
13 Jejima 4 16
15 robnplunder 4 17
16 Joaoiyama 4 18
17 WAKATAKE 3 11
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The time I decide to predict a KK for Abi, he goes MK. Don't know why I did though, with the foot problem.

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Day 13

Today brought forth lots of new decisions and the field of LKS yusho contenders got reduced significantly. All in all it was possible to score 4 points today, and 4 different players managed to do so, while scores as low as just one point were also seen. A pair of Sadogatake rikishi clinched their kachikoshi today with Kotoshoho up in juryo and Kotosusumu in sandanme, and furthermore it was also done by high school rookie Suzuki. Conversely, the day saw the end of komusubi Abi's year-long KK streak. Only Kotosusumu's result was a minority expectation.

The add-on squad, being entirely composed of toriteki, is nearly done as usual, with only one more rikishi still 3-3 at this time. Three others decided their fates: Collegiate dropout newcomer Ito will be joining the ballot for Haru basho, while Sadanogo and Yabugasaki have fallen short.

The updated standings:

Day 13:
10/13 Decisions, TB 12-16
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Rocks 10 13
2 Tenshinhan 9 14
3 Asashosakari 9 13
4 Athenayama 9 18
5 Holleshoryu 8 14
6 Profomisakari 8 13
6 ryafuji 8 15
8 Pandaazuma 8 12
9 Joaoiyama 8 18
10 Ryoshishokunin 7 14
11 Achiyama 7 13
11 Sakura 7 13
13 Jejima 7 16
14 Tsuchinoninjin 6 13
15 robnplunder 6 17
16 chishafuwaku 5 11
16 WAKATAKE 5 11


Pursuer Tenshinhan actually has the most promising tie-breaker selection, but he can no longer win or even tie as his remaining three predictions are identical to those made by leader Rocks. Athenayama can still tie for the lead, but would unfortunately lose all possible bracket comparisons to either Rocks or Asashosakari. So it's down to these two, and the deciding score will be provided by makushitan sandanmean Daikisho: If he goes makekoshi in a few hours, the yusho will be Asashosakari's, while with a kachikoshi Rocks' lead will hold. The other two remaining rikishi are Kotonowaka, who was unanimously selected for kachikoshi and so his result won't affect anything, and Akua (currently 7-6) whose outcome will only decide whether or not Athenayama will be co-leading the final standings on points as well (needs a KK for that).

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 14

Let's make things quick: Daikisho earned his last-minute kachikoshi to secure his spot on the next ballot, and so the yusho went to Rocks! Well done. The other decision of the day went against erstwhile contender Asashosakari as well, as Akua also grabbed another KK, so it's now Athenayama who finishes doten runner-up on bracket comparison - his first 10 slots were in fact identical to the winner's, but Ayakaze's makekoshi in slot 11 decided it in Rocks' favour.

The nearly final standings:

Day 14:
12/13 Decisions, TB 15-16
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Athenayama 11 18
1 Rocks 11 13
3 Profomisakari 10 13
3 Tenshinhan 10 14
5 Jejima 9 16
5 ryafuji 9 15
7 Asashosakari 9 13
7 Joaoiyama 9 18
7 Pandaazuma 9 12
10 Holleshoryu 8 14
10 Ryoshishokunin 8 14
12 Achiyama 7 13
12 robnplunder 7 17
12 Sakura 7 13
15 Tsuchinoninjin 6 13
15 WAKATAKE 6 11
17 chishafuwaku 5 11


Kotonowaka finds himself 7-7 entering senshuraku, but as everybody expected him to KK, his result will only determine whether it's Jejima or ryafuji who will get to pick up a bonus win for hitting the correct tie-breaker score. (But of course it'll also decide if Kotonowaka will be with us again next time.) The KK/MK line will be between Pandaazuma and Holleshoryu regardless of this.

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