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Hatsu 2020 Basho Discussion (SPOILERS)

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29 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

There was a bit of talk about this after the last basho. He’s not officially on a run but I also am of the mind that he may benefit from some generous thinking should Takayasu fail to regain his rank and Goeido drop to Sekiwake too. That scenario is not looking as outlandish as it may have six weeks ago. If both do happen, I think it’s a shoe-in with 12 wins and possible even with 11. That would be 33/45 (or 32) for Asanoyama and the only rule bending would be to overlook the M-K-S rank sequence. It’s certainly at their discretion to do that and one reason why it’s always made sense to have never written in stone what the promotion criteria are. 

Yeah, the "M" thing.  I see now that Asanoyama's Ozeki run is not all that legitimate, but as you and others have pointed out, he may be in the right place at the right time to create something (Ozeki promotion) out of nothing.

Back in 1963, Yutakayama secured Ozeki promotion with a M-S-S run, but his win total over the three tournaments was an impressive 37!  Asanoyama can only dream of getting a total of 36 if he somehow manages a zensho yusho in this tournament.  I'll eat the hat that Kintamayama didn't eat, back when Takakeisho became an Ozeki, if Asanoyama gets a zensho yusho!  Either that, or I'll throw a purple zabuton as a sign of uncontrollable joy. ;-)

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33 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Yeah, the "M" thing.  I see now that Asanoyama's Ozeki run is not all that legitimate, but as you and others have pointed out, he may be in the right place at the right time to create something (Ozeki promotion) out of nothing.

Back in 1963, Yutakayama secured Ozeki promotion with a M-S-S run, but his win total over the three tournaments was an impressive 37!  Asanoyama can only dream of getting a total of 36 if he somehow manages a zensho yusho in this tournament.  I'll eat the hat that Kintamayama didn't eat, back when Takakeisho became an Ozeki, if Asanoyama gets a zensho yusho!  Either that, or I'll throw a purple zabuton as a sign of uncontrollable joy. ;-)

Would the fact that Asanoyama also got two sansho, a kinboshi, and the jun-yusho in the past two basho also be considered as a reason for promotion and mitigate against the maegashira start?

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43 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Yeah, the "M" thing.  I see now that Asanoyama's Ozeki run is not all that legitimate, but as you and others have pointed out, he may be in the right place at the right time to create something (Ozeki promotion) out of nothing.

Back in 1963, Yutakayama secured Ozeki promotion with a M-S-S run, but his win total over the three tournaments was an impressive 37!  Asanoyama can only dream of getting a total of 36 if he somehow manages a zensho yusho in this tournament.  I'll eat the hat that Kintamayama didn't eat, back when Takakeisho became an Ozeki, if Asanoyama gets a zensho yusho!  Either that, or I'll throw a purple zabuton as a sign of uncontrollable joy. ;-)

We never really know with these things. Just last year Takakeisho got denied the promotion at the first attempt despite 33/45, all at junior sanyaku ranks and including a yusho and jun-yusho. The theory there was that a) he was still young and they wanted to be sure he was the real deal, b) two basho were at Komusubi and they prefer two at Sekiwake and/or c) his third basho (11-4) was worse than his second (13-2) and they like to see increasing numbers. Who knows? Asanoyama could be denied because of his rank sequence, his numbers and/or his yusho record. He could also be promoted because of or in spite of those things. Trying to anticipate what the kyokai will do is part of the fun! Again, this is why it all makes perfect sense to never write down the rules. Once you do that, you’re boxed in. 
 

I’ve actually just realized that Asanoyama’s first win in November was a fusen and that is sometimes held against a rikishi (it seems anyway). 

Edited by Eikokurai

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31 minutes ago, Dwale said:

Shocking.

I am shocked.

Nothing from Kakuryu? Myogiryu could be the second guy to take consecutive kinboshi this tournament. It would have been awesome if Hokutofuji had done the same.

Edited by Eikokurai
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I mean Asanoyama was at M2 for his 10-5, would that really not be considered legit when his rank still put him in a position to face virtually everyone?

And dang about Hak's pullout, I wanted another kinboshi for Hokutofuji >:-(

Edited by Katooshu
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18 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

I mean Asanoyama was at M2 for his 10-5, would that really not be considered legit when his rank still put him in a position to face virtually everyone?

And dang about Hak's pullout, I wanted another kinboshi for Hokutofuji >:-(

I know what you mean; it's one of those weird statistical tricks: depending on who kyujos during the basho, an M2 often meets a tougher schedule than a Sanyaku rikishi.  Case in point, Aki 2019: just adding ranks, Asanoyama's 10-5 record was earned against a tougher schedule than K1 Abi's 9-6 (and Abi got a fusen win against Hakuho).

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1 hour ago, Katooshu said:

I mean Asanoyama was at M2 for his 10-5, would that really not be considered legit when his rank still put him in a position to face virtually everyone?

And dang about Hak's pullout, I wanted another kinboshi for Hokutofuji >:-(

It should, in a just world. Likewise, komusubi and sekiwake should be considered equal, since they are in other situations (e.g. schedule, salary). It's even possible to get a kachikoshi as a komusubi, thus qualifying for sekiwake promotion, but not get it because of banzuke congestion (see: Takakeisho, Abi). Rikishi at the top often get a "false rank", something which ought to be factored in. (That said, Asanoyama's M2 wasn't really false as he'd been demoted from M1 to M2.)

Edited by Eikokurai

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what would you guys say the odds are for Kakuryu pulling out, then retiring (due to his recent records) and citing the fact that he almost instantly failed his goal as his reason for intai?

or the odds of Kakuryu sticking it out to the end and going make-koshi?

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On 19/11/2019 at 21:09, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Sounds like gagamaru is in bad shape - after the Aki basho they drained 280mL of water from his knee in one session. A total of 3 liters was drained.

It appears his condition has not improved. He has dropped two straight as of today, and is unable to put any power into his sumo.

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Terunofuji looking strong picking up his fourth straight win today defeating Sokokurai.

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Still very satisfied with what I'm seeing from Terunofuji down in juryo. He keeps this up and he'll be back in makuuchi in no time. Might even take the juryo championship along the way.

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2 hours ago, Dwale said:

Still very satisfied with what I'm seeing from Terunofuji down in juryo. He keeps this up and he'll be back in makuuchi in no time. Might even take the juryo championship along the way.

I didn't think he'd start the juryo with 4 straight wins.   Getting the yusho would be sweet.   

If Endo beats Takakeisho today, I am voting for Endo to take the yusho.

That was a bit comical at the end when Tochinoshin beat Enho.

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4 hours ago, Katooshu said:

I mean Asanoyama was at M2 for his 10-5, would that really not be considered legit when his rank still put him in a position to face virtually everyone?

When even Terunofuji's 8-7 at M2 was sufficient...

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10 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

Come to think of it, Hakuho has been wearing a white, cloth "boot" since day 1, which wasn't there last tournament.  Perhaps that is the issue.

Well spotted. Tachai are saying that cellulitis in the foot is the primary problem.

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14 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

When even Terunofuji's 8-7 at M2 was sufficient...

The theory is that Terunofuji's 8-7 was only counted to "make up the numbers"; it was actually his jun-yusho + yusho combination that got him the nod. Asanoyama's record isn't quite the equal of that.

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16 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

The theory is that Terunofuji's 8-7 was only counted to "make up the numbers"; it was actually his jun-yusho + yusho combination that got him the nod. Asanoyama's record isn't quite the equal of that.

A 12-3 Yusho would put him in exactly the same spot, don't you think?

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3 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

A 12-3 Yusho would put him in exactly the same spot, don't you think?

I believe the main argument in the case of Terunofuji’s promotion to ozeki is the fact that a 13-2J - 12-3Y can be enough for a yokozuna promotion, so it certainly is enough for an ozeki promotion, the 8-7 record at M2 has nothing to do with it

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10 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

A 12-3 Yusho would put him in exactly the same spot, don't you think?

Possibly. The key difference for me is how much weight is on the M2 record. For Terunofuji it was very little, maybe 10%. It ticked the "33 wins" box to satisfy the purists and nothing more. With Asanoyama it would be a bigger contribution as his subsequent two records aren't quite as strong. Bear in mind his JY was only 11-4, three wins behind Hakuho, and included a fusen. It wasn't a particularly strong JY in that sense. That said, other circumstances are different, such as the overall Ozeki situation. 

Anyway ... go Myogiryu! Two rikishi get back-to-back kinboshi in the same basho and it's not even day 5.

Edited by Eikokurai

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I can't believe it's only day 4, this basho feels like it's been a month long already.

I guess that's gonna be Kakuryu kyujo now. Once Hakuho lost to Myogiryu I figured it would be either Takakeisho or Asanoyama to take the cup. Now I don't know. Crazy basho like this are upside-down land where anything can happen. Terutsuyoshi yusho? Sure, why not. Anything goes in upside-down land!

Ok, that was hyperbole, but still. Crazy.

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2 minutes ago, Dwale said:

I can't believe it's only day 4, this basho feels like it's been a month long already.

I guess that's gonna be Kakuryu kyujo now. Once Hakuho lost to Myogiryu I figured it would be either Takakeisho or Asanoyama to take the cup. Now I don't know. Crazy basho like this are upside-down land where anything can happen. Terutsuyoshi yusho? Sure, why not. Anything goes in upside-down land!

Ok, that was hyperbole, but still. Crazy.

I'm trying to get my mind to accept the idea of a Kagayaki yusho. He's 4-0 and fighting well, in his own way. Stranger things have happened.

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1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

I'm trying to get my mind to accept the idea of a Kagayaki yusho. He's 4-0 and fighting well, in his own way. Stranger things have happened.

Demon Kakka would s*#t himself if that were to happen.  Pardon my Japanese. ;-)

Spoiler

If I am not mistaken, the painted-faced Japanese rock-and-roller and part-time NHK commentator pegged Kagayaki for great things (future Yokozuna?).

 

Edited by Amamaniac

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14 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Possibly. The key difference for me is how much weight is on the M2 record. For Terunofuji it was very little, maybe 10%. It ticked the "33 wins" box to satisfy the purists and nothing more. With Asanoyama it would be a bigger contribution as his subsequent two records aren't quite as strong. Bear in mind his JY was only 11-4, three wins behind Hakuho, and included a fusen. It wasn't a particularly strong JY in that sense. That said, other circumstances are different, such as the overall Ozeki situation.

All true. And taking the Goeido example into account, I'll wager that any kind of yusho would be enough for Asanoyama to replenish the dwindling Ozeki ranks.

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I wanted to throw my throw cushion (sorry, no zabuton) when Goeido managed to win against no-pushover Daieisho.  Despite Goeido being an Ozeki, with his recent history and a 0-3 record, it was as if he were the underdog in that bout.  But with the semi-desperation head-lock throw (kubinage) at the end, he showed how dangerous and skilled he can be.  Kubinage will go down as his signature kimarite.  Expertly executed!

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Caption time

EOT-ijrUcAAFbli?format=jpg&name=small

You will go to your room - even if I have to carry you there kicking and screaming!

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