Hatsu 2020 Basho Discussion (SPOILERS)

[Otokonoyama 2,735]

Edited January 25, 2020 by Otokonoyama

[Akinomaki 34,315]

Is this the latest ever for the publication of the day 15 torikumi?

[Jakusotsu 4,841]

6 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Is this the latest ever for the publication of the day 15 torikumi?

I think you already know the answer.

[Morty 1,393]

1 hour ago, Houmanumi said:

This. Consistency has long been his problem but he's not showing his usual, high-level intelligent sumo. 

Maybe he was benefiting from an ageing sanyaku this whole time and can't keep up with the (slightly) younger brigade?

He strikes me as a wrestler who's form goes up and down. I think he is just out of form. When he's on he can beat anyone, but when he is just 5% off he struggles.

 

[Morty 1,393]

Kudos to Kotoshogiku on his 700th Makuuchi win. He has been my favourite rikishi for the past ten years and it has been kind of sad to watch his decline. But I'm glad he got to 700. I would like him to retire now, on that high note, and move onto the role of oyakata. He has nothing left to prove. Go the Geek!

[Akinomaki 34,315]

So they go for Tokushoryu-Takakeisho after all - maybe they trust him more to stop Tokushoryu. Shodai vs. Endo looks like the komusubi shoot-out bout, it may give Shodai a better chance to have a ketteisen. But if he has awakened to be negative Shodai again, he'll likely continue that - he might give him the yusho right away, before Tokushoryu has to fight his bout.

Edit: sanspo was wrong, Mitakeumi for Shodai

Edited January 25, 2020 by Akinomaki

[Eikokurai 3,413]

4 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

So they go for Tokushoryu-Takakeisho after all - maybe they trust him more to stop Tokushoryu. Shodai vs. Endo looks like the komusubi shoot-out bout, it may be to give Shodai a better chance to have a ketteisen. But if he awoke to be negative Shodai again, he'll likely continue that - he might give him the yusho right away, before Tokushoryu has to fight his bout.

That gives Tokushoryu the chance to win both the first and final Makuuchi bouts of the honbasho. Day 1 he beat Chiyoshoma in bout one.

Edited January 25, 2020 by Eikokurai

[Nantonoyama 224]

That looks like a low-rank record for senshuraku musubi-no-ichiban, or sanyaku soroibumi

[Akinomaki 34,315]

2 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Shodai vs. Endo looks like the komusubi shoot-out bout, it may give Shodai a better chance to have a ketteisen. But if he has awakened to be negative Shodai again, he'll likely continue that - he might give him the yusho right away, before Tokushoryu has to fight his bout.

Edit: sanspo was wrong, Mitakeumi for Shodai

I guess the article will disappear soon or at least sanspo corrects it. Mitakeumi goes for kachi-koshi, but looks like an even easier opponent to help Shodai

Edit: sanspo corrected it - I saved the old version, to be able to compare the 2

Edited January 25, 2020 by Akinomaki

[word20 21]

2 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

This looks like it's the shukun-sho for Hokutofuji, he has much more shukun points than Shodai, but if Shodai gets the yusho after all, he must get a shukun-sho. Tokushoryu also a shukun-sho as 2nd sansho if he gets the yusho? - I don't think he'll get a 2nd, and also not the shukun-sho if Shodai beats him in a ketteisen, and he'll be the only one eligible to have beaten the yusho winner. Kaisei might end up as the only one to beat the yusho winner, but even if he wins tomorrow for his kachi-koshi, I can't imagine him to get a shukun-sho for that. Maybe they will avoid too many alternatively conditional sansho and just give it to Hokutofuji.

This yusho looks like Tokushoryu gonna win because he has 13-1

[Akinomaki 34,315]

With this schedule, I think now that Tokushoryu's sansho can be the shukun-sho (I can't resist to keep thinking about the sansho). If he wins against Takakeisho, he'll have beaten both other contenders for the yusho and the top rikishi in the basho. If he loses, he'd still have beaten either the yusho winner or be it himself.

I agree that Hokutofuji's should now be the gino-sho (again) - no condition needed for this sansho. Shodai for kanto-sho - though I think he deserves more if he gets the yusho.

I still don't know if they can find a list for tomorrow that avoids to be the one with the most sophisticated optional ones. Kiribayama without condition would make it an easier list.

My guess for a simple solution:

Shukun-sho: Tokushoryu

Gino-sho: Hokutofuji

Kanto-sho: Kiribayama and Shodai

Edited January 25, 2020 by Akinomaki

[Jakusotsu 4,841]

What about a shukun-sho for Kaisei *if* he gets his eight tomorrow and *if* Tokushoryu beats Takakeisho?

[Eikokurai 3,413]

18 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

With this schedule, I think now that Tsurugisho's sansho can be the shukun-sho (I can't resist to keep thinking about the sansho). If he wins against Takakeisho, he'll have beaten both other contenders for the yusho and the top rikishi in the basho. If he loses, he'd still have beaten either the yusho winner or be it himself.

I agree that Hokutofuji's should now be the gino-sho (again) - no condition needed for this sansho. Shodai for kanto-sho - though I think he deserves more if he gets the yusho.

I still don't know if they can find a list for tomorrow that avoids to be the one with the most sophisticated optional ones. Kiribayama without condition would make it an easier list.

My guess for a simple solution:

Shukun-sho: Tokushoryu

Gino-sho: Hokutofuji

Kanto-sho: Kiribayama and Shodai

Tsurugisho has done well to hang in there with his knee injury but a sansho might be going too far. :)

[Asashosakari 16,704]

19 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

What about a shukun-sho for Kaisei *if* he gets his eight tomorrow and *if* Tokushoryu beats Takakeisho?

Looking through all the hiramaku yusho winners, I can't find any sansho-eligible rikishi who defeated them and got a sansho strictly for that. The lowest score that attracted a prize was 10-5, but that was Wajima in his sanyaku debut. Other than that, all the rikishi who did get a sansho were joi rikishi with at least 11 wins, so like Wajima clearly sansho-worthy performances on their overall merits, not dependent on that one win.

Edited January 25, 2020 by Asashosakari

[Jakusotsu 4,841]

...but then again, there's never been a hiramaku yusho winner whose only loss came by a single Maegashira with KK. This surely is a basho for many firsts.

[Akinomaki 34,315]

30 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Tsurugisho has done well to hang in there with his knee injury but a sansho might be going too far. :)

I keep mixing up those 2 T.shos

[YoungSumo 93]

12 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

Me three days ago: "He's done great so far. That said, I'd be surprised if he gets past Kagayaki tomorrow."

Me two days ago: "He's done great so far. That said, I'd be surprised if he gets past Yutakayama tomorrow."

The guy keeps defying all expectations.

That said, I too will be surprised if he gets past Shodai today.

(Cue Takashoryu easily waltzing past Shodai.)

 

And look at that. Surprises us again. The only way for Tokushoryu not to win the yusho now is for him to lose to Takakeisho (likely), Shodai to beat Mitakeumi (possible) and then Shodai has to beat him in a play-off (highly doubt Shodai can be trusted with that preasure). 

[Tsubame 319]

1 hour ago, Nantonoyama said:

That looks like a low-rank record for senshuraku musubi-no-ichiban, or sanyaku soroibumi

It has to be.

With set 42 rikishi in Makuuchi, there is no lower rank then M17w possible. 

[Ryoshishokunin 208]

2 minutes ago, Tsubame said:

It has to be.

With set 42 rikishi in Makuuchi, there is no lower rank then M17w possible. 

M18W is possible--only 6 rikishi are required in the Three Ranks.  

[Akinomaki 34,315]

8 minutes ago, Tsubame said:

It has to be.

With set 42 rikishi in Makuuchi, there is no lower rank then M17w possible. 

For the past - but the future without yokozuna (or only YO) and 2 each below may bring us an m18w

Edited January 25, 2020 by Akinomaki

[Eikokurai 3,413]

Just now, Tsubame said:

It has to be.

With set 42 rikishi in Makuuchi, there is no lower rank then M17w possible. 

Now, yes, but it wasn't always that way. There have been times with 55+ rikishi, so it was possible to go lower in the past. No idea if it happened though.

[Kintamayama 40,190]

7 sanyaku next time will bring about an M18

[Asashosakari 16,704]

M14w appears to be the old soroibumi record-holder, at least in terms of the absolute maegashira ranking. Not gonna try to account for differing sanyaku sizes.

Edit: Honourable mention to M20w, the lowest rank to get a sanyaku opponent on senshuraku. Wasn't part of the soroibumi though.

Edited January 25, 2020 by Asashosakari

[Eikokurai 3,413]

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&day=15&rank1=M17-M22&rank2=K-Y

Confirms nobody lower than the M20w Fusanishiki mentioned by Asashosakari above has faced a sanyaku opponent on day 15. Tokushoryu sets a record.

Edited January 25, 2020 by Eikokurai

[Asashosakari 16,704]

The old musubi no ichiban record holder may be M7w, or M7e, or perhaps M5w - all of these are showing as the final bout on the DB. However, these are all far enough in the past that these torikumi are likely reconstructed for the database, not based on primary sources. We had this case a year ago where the final bout should have been O1e-M8e by standard scheduling, but they actually gave the spot to O1w-S1e. Something similar might have happened in any or all of these 1970s cases.