Hatsu 2020 Basho Discussion (SPOILERS)

[Sue 476]

On 19/01/2020 at 11:45, Yubinhaad said:

Made me dizzy just watching [Fujinoteru's match].

Now I want Terunofuji to hold on long enough for Fujinoteru to advance far enough to set up a match between the two.

[Gooner 39]

I wonder if rikishi ever take some tactical lessons?

Goeidou rushing forward against the most agile rikishi and being pushed out seconds later...

Aoiyama has the ability to bulldoze Ishiura out of the building, yet ends up being henka'd. I bet most of the visitors on this forum saw the henka coming from miles away...

Does anyone know if they watch videos or talk about strategy with the oyakata?

[Gospodin 185]

10 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Kaio-2 Ryuden has the same crushing kotenage - Chiyotairyu of traditionally injury attracting Kokonoe-beya can say good-bye to kachi-koshi now - could be kyujo tomorrow, but we've seen headless walk again.

I respectfully disagree. Kaio‘s kotenage often seemed to come out of nowhere and was technically perfect - not exactly what Ryuden displayed today.

[Benihana 1,900]

18 hours ago, Benihana said:

Goeido better watch out.

Told you so. 

Goeido may have his last basho as Ozeki, at least for 4 months, maybe forever, but a ginboshi is a ginboshi and what a ginboshi it was!

Tokushoryusho? He could equalize Dewaminato's record of a m17w yusho 01/1939. Back then they had only 13 bouts and only 2 basho per year. A Tokushoryusho would be worth far more, although Dewaminato had to beat 2 Komusubi.

Shodai is the safest bet for a yusho. He still has to face Abi (4-4) and Daieisho (2-3), but he can handle both. Enjoyed watching him lose his pokerface. But i wouldn't count out the 6-3s.

Many entertaining bouts this basho. Maybe not the best bouts, but entertaining. Plus at least one bout for future compilations. Could be worse :)

[Benevolance 2,472]

A Shodai yusho seems more likely, since Asanoyama and Takakeisho are still obligated under the iron-clad OBSC rules to give Goeidou wins. Shodai (as an up and coming ozeki) is already playing by the OBSC rules and fulfilled his Goeidic obligations, and it would simply be tasteless and illegal if Asanoyama and Takakeisho didn't follow suit. 

Edited January 20, 2020 by Benevolance

[Tigerboy1966 1,376]

3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

 I'd hate to see them have to promote someone to Ozeki without at least 3 straight KK just because they did the best in the most recent tournament. 

They won't do that but I think they will slacken the criteria. One big problem of late is that the steady stream of demoted ozeki has meant that there has usually been only one slot available for an upwardly mobile sekiwake. This narrows the list of ozeki candidates as you really need a winning record at S in the most recent basho.  32 wins in the last 3 basho for a sekiwake could well do it. 

[Akinomaki 39,581]

1 hour ago, Gospodin said:

I respectfully disagree. Kaio‘s kotenage often seemed to come out of nowhere and was technically perfect - not exactly what Ryuden displayed today.

Of course technical Ryuden is far behind - but his kotenage is already just as devastating to the arms of the opponents

[dingo 1,133]

I feel bad for Takayasu. He's trying his best but the body simply doesn't follow. It's really sad to see the once proud ozeki slipping down.

Asanoyama did a beauty of a throw there. I guess the yusho train is gone, wonder if he'll still make it on the ozeki train -- especially with Takayasu and probably soon Goeido stepping off.

[Giku Squad 10]

It's probably been answered before but I haven't been following this thread during the basho very closely.

What happens when there are no Ozeki in the ranks during a basho, not because of Kyojo but because there simply aren't any. Is the promotion guideline then fudged a little or do they demote a Yokozuna even if that  Yokozuna is kyojo?

I'm enjoying watching Terunofuji do pretty decent sumo. He's man handling most everyone while protecting his knees. Tochinoshin should take note.

Good job from Enho today, embarrassing loss for Goeido. I truly think he will be demoted to Sekiwake this basho and maybe be in a position like Takayasu is by the following.

[Koorifuu 860]

11 hours ago, Catalin B said:

Great quote. Really, what is he hoping for? Even if he somehow pulls off another win, it shouldn't be enough for him to stay in makuuchi. And what about those matta calls today piling on his misery?

I was only half joking in a previous comment where I feel officialdom is as rough on poor Tsurugisho as other rikishi are. Those matta were hard to watch.

[serge_gva 52]

Even if we are not going down that road, I think it's still a little too early to rule out a "legitimate" ozeki promotion for Asanoyama. A 12-3 Yusho, I think, would more or less put everyone in agreement. Still, Shodai would have to lose twice, but he's capable of it, so to speak...

Since everyone sees a yusho for Takakeisho (at least until yesterday), I'm going to take a risk and bet on a yusho from Asanoyama

In the case of a Kadoban Goido, plus Asanoyama clearly outside of the usual Ozeki promotion criteria, plus Hakuho and Kakuryu both Kyujo for the next basho (first two conditions are fairly likely to happen, third one is much less), what are your predictions?

> An exception to the "at least 2 Ozeki" rule
> Asanoyama promoted to Ozeki with a KK (regardless of his score)
> Goeido reteined at the rank of Ozeki with a MK
> Best Sekiwake (Asanoyama?) becoming an "Ozekiwake" (temporary Ozeki)

 

Edited January 20, 2020 by serge_gva

[Kaninoyama 1,663]

5 hours ago, Sue said:

Dear Osaka Banzuke makers: please schedule an Omote vs. Ura matchup, assuming that both rikishi are in Sandanme in Osaka. Please please please please please.

"-There is a Sandanme wrestler named Omote. I'm looking forward to his future match-up against Ura."

Expressed the very same sentiment a few days ago. Great minds think alike 

[Eikokurai 3,433]

5 minutes ago, serge_gva said:

Even if we are not going down that road, I think it's still a little too early to rule out a "legitimate" ozeki promotion for Asanoyama. A 12-3 Yusho, I think, would more or less put everyone in agreement. Still, Shodai would have to lose twice, but he's capable of it, so to speak...

Since everyone sees a yusho for Takakeisho (at least until yesterday), I'm going to take a risk and bet on a yusho from Asanoyama

In the case of a Kadoban Goido, plus Asanoyama clearly outside of the usual Ozeki promotion criteria, plus Hakuho and Kakuryu both Kyujo for the next basho (first two conditions are fairly likely to happen, third one is much less), what are your predictions?

> An exception to the "at least 2 Ozeki" rule
> Asanoyama promoted to Ozeki with a KK (regardless of his score)
> Goeido reteined at the rank of Ozeki with a MK
> Best Sekiwake (Asanoyama?) becoming an "Ozekiwake" (temporary Ozeki)

 

No need to make an exception if Hakuho and Kakuryu are simply kyujo. They’ll still be on the banzuke and can both be listed as Yokozuna-Ozeki if necessary. Of course, if one or both retires ...

[Asojima 2,870]

9 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Of course, if one or both retires ...

the kyokai would reject one or both retirements.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

1 minute ago, Asojima said:

the kyokai would reject one or both retirements.

Can they? I think at best they can ask them to delay the public announcement until after the banzuke is published on the promise that they won’t be expected to actually compete.

[Kuroyama 715]

Are we so sure that "At least 2 ozeki at all times" is in fact a hard-and-fast rule?

But retirements for either Hakuho or Kakuryu by March are extremely unlikely. They will be ranked YO should there be NO ozeki, but I'm not so sure a sole ozeki must perforce have an opposite. Or is this banzuke incorrect? http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=198105&heya=-1&shusshin=-1

[Ryoshishokunin 260]

15 minutes ago, Kuroyama said:

Or is this banzuke incorrect? http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=198105&heya=-1&shusshin=-1

If you click through, you'll see that Waka's listed as Y1wYO in the db.  ( http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=4095 ) 

I assume that the display formatting for YO ranks is flaky on account of it doesn't get used very much.

[Kuroyama 715]

4 minutes ago, Ryoshishokunin said:

If you click through, you'll see that Waka's listed as Y1wYO in the db.  ( http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=4095 ) 

I assume that the display formatting for YO ranks is flaky on account of it doesn't get used very much.

I'd seen it in other banzuke listings, but maybe that's where there actually were no ozeki, resulting in two YO.

[ScreechingOwl 343]

Regarding the two ozeki situation:

1. Goeido is almost certainly going to finish mk, and thus be demoted;

2. Asanoyama will quite likely be promoted to ozeki; any 12-3 will clinch it, and I believe even 11-4 will be enough;

3. Even if Goeido is demoted and Asanoyama isn't promoted it's all good - Kakuryu will be listed as yokozuna-ozeki.

 

[Yamanashi 3,689]

39 minutes ago, ScreechingOwl said:

Regarding the two ozeki situation:

1. Goeido is almost certainly going to finish mk, and thus be demoted;

2. Asanoyama will quite likely be promoted to ozeki; any 12-3 will clinch it, and I believe even 11-4 will be enough;

3. Even if Goeido is demoted and Asanoyama isn't promoted it's all good - Kakuryu will be listed as yokozuna-ozeki.

 

Please understand, I'm just some guy, but if #1 happens, I can't see #2 as long as #3 is available.  There is precedent for a YO rank; #2 doesn't seem like anything the NSK would want to do (or has done): 1) Asanoyama's 10-5 (at M2) in Aki was a five-way tie for third in a honbasho with both Y's and an O out of action.  2) His 11-4 J at Kyushu was much more impressive, but again a Yokozuna and an Ozeki were out.  I don't think an 11-4 with both Y's gone and only one successful Ozeki is worthy of elevation, since even then he would have only 32.

For comparison, Takakeisho had 33 wins , all in Sanyaku, including a Yusho and a Jun-Yusho, and they told him " ya need a little more seasoning, kid."  So even if Asanoyama wins out (12-3) he'd need to Yusho to even have a chance at promotion.  [IMHO]

Edited January 21, 2020 by Yamanashi
math boo boo

[Eikokurai 3,433]

One point to consider, which I’ve been wondering for a while, is whether the kyokai starts to reassess the weight of beating Y/Os at a time of such obvious transition. Is there really much value in winning against guys who are old and injured all the time? Sure, they’re Yokozuna and Ozeki in name, but none are really performing at that level right now. Perhaps the Kyokai will consider that the strongest rikishi outside of the aging Y/Os is now the actual strongest rikishi on the banzuke. Once you disregard the likes of Goeido, Kakuryu and Takayasu (maybe even Hakuho at this point) whoever is able to put up the required numbers against the rikishi who are left could be said to be performing to the necessary level. After all, an Ozeki is simply someone who performs better than their contemporaries, not better than all rikishi to have ever fought. The Kyokai may make allowance for some overlap between eras, so “contemporaries” really means “of the same generation”. Asanoyama’s results against the guys around him who are nearer his age might weigh more than a win against a crippled Takayasu or a fading Goeido, regardless of rank.

Hope that makes sense.

Edited January 21, 2020 by Eikokurai

[WAKATAKE 2,624]

Nikkan has retrieved some data that dates back to 1975, there have been 14 rikishi who have made sekitori while weighing less than 100 kg. Only 3 of those have beaten ozeki in that time, putting Enho in the company of:

- Chiyonofuji (over Asahikuni in Natsu 1978)
- Mainoumi (over Takanohana in Nagoya 1994, over Takanonami in Nagoya 1995)

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202001200000841.html

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202001200000754.html

[Godango 956]

4 hours ago, ScreechingOwl said:

3. Even if Goeido is demoted and Asanoyama isn't promoted it's all good - Kakuryu will be listed as yokozuna-ozeki.

 

I'm being a stickler here, but with one with each and Kakuryu making one more appearance on the dohyo than Kakuryu, wouldn't Kakuryu be ranked higher on the next banzuke, making Hakuho the potential YO? 

Again, stickler, but I'm genuinely curious as to the answer.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

12 minutes ago, Houmanumi said:

I'm being a stickler here, but with one with each and Kakuryu making one more appearance on the dohyo than Kakuryu, wouldn't Kakuryu be ranked higher on the next banzuke, making Hakuho the potential YO? 

Again, stickler, but I'm genuinely curious as to the answer.

Maybe they’ll consider that the equal win records mean they can just keep the status quo. Does an extra loss cancel out an extra appearance? A similar thing came up before and I can’t remember what the outcome was.

Edited January 21, 2020 by Eikokurai

[Godango 956]

4 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Maybe they’ll consider that the equal win records mean they can just keep the status quo. Does an extra loss cancel out an extra appearance?

Yeah that's what I was wondering. Based on recent results/banzukes (I've only been regularly watching tournaments since July 2018) I thought I'd noticed actual losses being rated higher than absences. I could absolutely be wrong.