Kintamayama

GTB Hatsu 2020- 102 players, results

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This is what my spreadsheet has.  I assume it's what I submitted.

Hakuho(14-1 Yw)    Y    Kakuryu(0-1 Ye)
Takakeisho(9-6 Oe)    O    Goeido(0-2 Oe)
Asanoyama(11-4 Kw)    S    Takayasu(3-5 Ow)
Abi(9-6 Ke)    K    Daieisho(8-7 M1e)
        
Mitakeumi(6-9 Se)    M1    Myogiryu(8-7 M2e)
Endo(7-8 Kw)    M2    Hokutofuji(7-8 Ke)
Tamawashi(8-7 M4e)    M3    Kotoyuki(8-7 M4w)
Shodai(11-4 M10w)    M4    Okinoumi(6-9 M1w)
Meisei(6-9 M2w)    M5    Enho(8-7 M6w)
Takarafuji(6-9 M3e)    M6    Shohozan(8-7 M8e)
Onosho(7-8 M6e)    M7    Takanosho(10-5 M12w)
Aoiyama(6-9 M5e)    M8    Ryuden(6-9 M5w)
Yutakayama(8-7 M9w)    M9    Tochinoshin(2-3 Sw)
Ishiura(9-6 M11e)    M10    Chiyotairyu(9-6 M11w)
Kagayaki(10-5 M13w)    M11    Sadanoumi(7-8 M8w)
Chiyomaru(9-6 M13e)    M12    Tsurugisho(6-9 M7e)
Kotoshogiku(6-9 M9e)    M13    Terutsuyoshi(8-7 M14e)
Kotoeko(5-10 M7w)    M14    Shimanoumi(6-9 M10e)
Azumaryu(11-4 J1e)    M15    Ikioi(11-4 J3e)
Tochiozan(10-5 J2e)    M16    Kaisei(11-4 J5e)
Kiribayama(11-4 J5w)    M17    Tomokaze(0-3 M3w)

 

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I see that someone named TochiYESshin submitted one of the latest entries.  I approve.

300%HENKA is also still playing, which is nice.

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My picks are very close to Gurowake‘s, so maybe I will score better than 1-14

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7 minutes ago, Wamahada said:

My picks are very close to Gurowake‘s, so maybe I will score better than 1-14

or vice versa.

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My entry:

Hakuho (Yw 14-1 Y)        Y    Kakuryu (Ye 0-1-14)
Takakeisho (O2e 9-6)      O    Goeido (O1e 0-2-13)
Asanoyama (K2w 11-4)      S    Takayasu (O1w 3-5-7)
Abi (K1e 9-6)             K    Daieisho (M1e 8-7)

Myogiryu (M2e 8-7)        M1   Endo (K1w 7-8)
Mitakeumi (Se 6-9)        M2   Hokutofuji (K2e 7-8)
Tamawashi (M4e 8-7)       M3   Kotoyuki (M4w 8-7)
Okinoumi (M1w 6-9)        M4   Shodai (M10w 11-4)
Meisei (M2w 6-9)          M5   Enho (M6w 8-7)
Takarafuji (M3e 6-9)      M6   Shohozan (M8e 8-7)
Onosho (M6e 7-8)          M7   Tochinoshin (Sw 2-3-10)
Takanosho (M12w 10-5)     M8   Ishiura (M11e 9-6)
Yutakayama (M9w 8-7)      M9   Chiyotairyu (M11w 9-6)
Kagayaki (M13w 10-5)      M10  Aoiyama (M5e 6-9)
Ryuden (M5w 6-9)          M11  Chiyomaru (M13e 9-6)
Sadanoumi (M8w 7-8)       M12  Tsurugisho (M7e 6-9)
Terutsuyoshi (M14e 8-7)   M13  Kotoshogiku (M9e 6-9)
Kotoeko (M7w 5-10)        M14  Shimanoumi (M10e 6-9)
Azumaryu (J1e 11-4 Y)     M15  Ikioi (J3e 11-4 D)
Tochiozan (J2e 10-5)      M16  Tomokaze (M3w 0-3-12)
Kaisei (J5e 11-4 D)       M17  Kiribayama (J5w 11-4 D)

From the start I've been wanting to bet on some sort of celebrity bonus for Mitakeumi keeping him higher than M2w (arguably the paint-by-numbers position). My first draft still had him at M1e, but it turned out that 6-9 sekiwake have basically never stayed in front of 8-7 M2's. So down to M1w he went, but a case can be made that Endo's just as high profile a rikishi (if for other reasons), so in the end I decided to gamble on a completely different scenario, namely the committee considering K2 Hokutofuji as less of a "proper" komusubi than K1 Endo to justify sliding Mitakeumi in between them despite their identical records.

I suspect I'm having one of the highest submitted positions for Tochinoshin, but I didn't see any particular reason to let him fall below the glut of KKs coming up from double-digit maegashira ranks (+ Yutakayama). Could be spectacularly wrong.

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For the ones posting their picks so far you haven't open a third Sekw and promote Abi.

I had him at Komosubi when did mine on Sunday, but as the website was down at the time I only put it on the web on Monday and on that day decided to promote Abi to 3rd Sek and move up everybodoy else one rank. Hope that was a lucky move rather than an idiot one.

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6 hours ago, RPedro44 said:

I had him at Komosubi when did mine on Sunday, but as the website was down at the time I only put it on the web on Monday and on that day decided to promote Abi to 3rd Sek and move up everybodoy else one rank. Hope that was a lucky move rather than an idiot one.

The problem with that is that banzuke luck will fall in different places with one more slot at the top.   You occasionally see people demoted 0 slots with a 7-8, but never promoted with a 7-8...

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Yeah, I still don't really understand how maegashira ranks are adjusted when the number of sanyaku changes, so I imagine my entry will be a mess.

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28 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Yeah, I still don't really understand how maegashira ranks are adjusted when the number of sanyaku changes, so I imagine my entry will be a mess.

My logic was to consider M1 (Daieisho / Okin) as if they were M2, M2 (Myog / Meisei) as M3 and so on. Plus, respecting what Ryoshishokuni mentioned that a losing record cannot go up. All together, i would be very happy with a 6-9.

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12 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

From the start I've been wanting to bet on some sort of celebrity bonus for Mitakeumi keeping him higher than M2w (arguably the paint-by-numbers position). My first draft still had him at M1e, but it turned out that 6-9 sekiwake have basically never stayed in front of 8-7 M2's.

Yeah, my choice of M1e for Mitakeumi is totally a celebrity bonus.  A long run in sanyaku plus two Yusho should mean something, even if it wasn't good enough for Ozeki.  I don't tend to look at history in cases like these much any more because it seems when I do, they choose to disregard history. 

Edited by Gurowake

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Well, going by the Asashosakari benchmark, I have  -4 points. I went with the crazy Abi Sekiwake option letting my personal feelings take over, and the "Tokushouryuu gets promoted with an 8-7 at 1W over a young and inexperienced Kiribayama's 11-4 at J5" option as well. Gut feelings. Well, again.

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I went for Abi at sekiwake because I thought they showed some generosity lately (4 komusibi), especially because nowadays with just 8 sanyaku and maybe half of them kyujo till the end of the basho, one extra is a good option. I wouldn't have dared to do it though had I not read a proper paper suggesting it - other papers only called it a possibility

On 24/11/2019 at 18:50, Akinomaki said:

Jiji reports that they will certainly do so (kakujitsu)  http://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2019112400436&g=spo

Edited by Akinomaki

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7 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

I went for Abi at sekiwake because I thought they showed some generosity lately (4 komusibi), especially because nowadays with just 8 sanyaku and maybe half of them kyujo till the end of the basho, one extra is a good option. I wouldn't have dared to do it though had I not read a proper paper suggesting it - other papers only called it a possibility

Ohhhh... Nice.

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I promoted Abi because I think all the oyakata like him, shows super respect during public facing events, deep bows to all the oyakata when he arrives to the arena. In closed door events I heard he's fun to drink with, checks all the old school Japan boxes.

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47, if I went through this mess correctly. I'll be stunned if anyone with more than a year of GTB experience has broken 60 here...

Could have been 50 if I'd stuck to my initial draft and put Tomokaze in the last spot.

Will anyone have Tochinoshin at M6w? 

Edited by Asashosakari

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I count 55 for mine.  Just counted and didn't look any further to see exactly what they did.

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46 in my first try. I'm kind of baffled and feel like I learned nothing. I spent a lot of time making sure the maegashira ranks were perfectly ordered based on historical precedent and much of it didn't go according to plan. It seemed like other predictors had some idea about most of it, but I don't know how.

Takanosho seems heavily underpromoted to me. I had him just behind Takarafuji, and with an argument for coming out ahead. I wouldn't have even thought to compare him to Aoiyama and Ryuden as I had him about 3 numbered ranks ahead historically, and even more this time.

Onosho was barely demoted despite the strong downward pressure of 3 people dropping out of san'yaku and a large group of people moving up and contesting his spot, all of whom would pass him a majority of the time, historically.

Even Sadanoumi stayed ahead of Ishiura and the others trying to move up? It seems like he belonged 3+ numbered ranks below them, every time, until now.

I guess banzuke-making is more of an art than a science. I'll need to see a few more to get in the committee's heads.

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8 minutes ago, Kaito said:

I'll need to see a few more to get in the committee's heads.

see = drink

  • Haha 2

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Well, here are the results of the Jury. Yusho- first timer in his 19th basho, Shatsume! Congratulations! 102 players,  11 newcomers, 2 going an impressive 10-5. Two players broke the 60 point barrier. Definitely a crazy one. 

Milestones:

Oshirokita- 100th basho!!

Konosato - 100th basho!!

Ketsukai- 80th basho

SceechingOwl - 40th basho

Ryoshishokunin- 20th basho and a memorable one at that..

Sakura - 20th basho

ReucherLax- 20th basho

Than you so much for playing and thanks as usual to Andoreasu (quick results..) and Doitsuyama.

And now- on with the Ba-show!!

To see how you did or didn't, go here..

 

 

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4-11... bad, bad start in Sumo gaming year 2020. This was all or nothing somehow... I went with 3 Sekiwake and my ship wrecked  (Carriedawayonastretcher...)

Ganzohnesushi

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So much for my evaluation of Jiji as about the most trustworthy of the papers, behind Kyodo but above Nikkan, Sanspo and Daily on their own - the one who called Abi as sekiwake a sure thing apparently forgot about Takayasu.

I'm very content that I still got to a 7-8 with that, at 53rd one place behind KK - my usual highly erratic picks help when dealing with a mess.

Edited by Akinomaki

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10 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I'll be stunned if anyone with more than a year of GTB experience has broken 60 here...

Be stunned sir ;-) (Laughing...)

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8 hours ago, Thelone said:

It took me a year, but I finally got a KK (somehow).

Ditto for me, too.   I guess even a broken watch is correct twice a day.

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