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Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Kyushu 2019

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We're ending the 2010's with the shortest LKS ballot in nearly half a decade. These few KK-streaking rikishi await your predictions:

 1. Tanakayama      8*
 2. Ichiyamamoto    6
 3. Kotoshoho       6
 4. Yuma            6**
 5. Abi             5  [score?]
 6. Kotonowaka      5
 7. Roga            5*
 8. Hokutoo         5
 9. Daitenma        5*

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut, ** marks rikishi with no makekoshi since banzuke return)


The scoring and thus your game assignment:

  • For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
  • For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 9 guys up there and the further 14 rikishi (9 'veterans' and 5 newcomers) who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 23. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 8 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Tanakayama.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

1. Tanakayama KKMK
2. Ichiyamamoto KKMK
3. Kotoshoho KKMK
4. Yuma KKMK
5. Abi W-L
6. Kotonowaka KKMK
7. Roga KKMK
8. Hokutoo KKMK
9. Daitenma KKMK

TB xx

Edited by Asashosakari

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1. Tanakayama MK
2. Ichiyamamoto KK
3. Kotoshoho KK
4. Yuma KK
5. Abi 7-8
6. Kotonowaka KK
7. Roga KK
8. Hokutoo MK
9. Daitenma KK

TB: 11

Pandaazuma

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1. Tanakayama KK
2. Ichiyamamoto KK
3. Kotoshoho KK
4. Yuma KK
5. Abi 7-8
6. Kotonowaka KK
7. Roga KK
8. Hokutoo KK
9. Daitenma KK

TB: 12

Pandaazuma

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1. Tanakayama MK
2. Ichiyamamoto KK
3. Kotoshoho MK
4. Yuma MK
5. Abi 9-6
6. Kotonowaka MK
7. Roga KK
8. Hokutoo KK
9. Daitenma MK

TB: 11

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1. Tanakayama MK
2. Ichiyamamoto KK
3. Kotoshoho KK
4. Yuma MK
5. Abi 8
6. Kotonowaka KK
7. Roga KK
8. Hokutoo MK
9. Daitenma KK

TB 12

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1. Tanakayama                          KK
2. Ichiyamamoto         MK
3. Kotoshoho               MK
4. Yuma                        MK
5. Abi                                           8-7
6. Kotonowaka                           KK
7. Roga                                        KK
8. Hokutoo                   MK
9. Daitenma                 MK

TB 9

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1. Tanakayama KK
2. Ichiyamamoto MK
3. Kotoshoho MK
4. Yuma KK
5. Abi 7-8
6. Kotonowaka MK
7. Roga KK
8. Hokutoo KK
9. Daitenma MK

TB 11

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1. Tanakayama MK
2. Ichiyamamoto KK
3. Kotoshoho MK
4. Yuma MK
5. Abi 7-8
6. Kotonowaka KK
7. Roga KK
8. Hokutoo MK
9. Daitenma MK

TB 10

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1. Tanakayama KK
2. Ichiyamamoto KK
3. Kotoshoho KK
4. Yuma MK
5. Abi 6-9
6. Kotonowaka KK
7. Roga KK
8. Hokutoo MK
9. Daitenma MK

TB 11

Athenayama

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1. Tanakayama KK
2. Ichiyamamoto KK
3. Kotoshoho MK
4. Yuma KK
5. Abi 7-8
6. Kotonowaka MK
7. Roga KK
8. Hokutoo MK
9. Daitenma KK

TB: 13

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+ Tanakayama
- Ichiyamamoto
+ Kotoshoho
- Yuma
8 Abi
+ Kotonowaka
+ Roga
- Hokutoo
+ Daitenma

TB 11
 

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Like last basho, 13 participants in LKS for Kyushu after I had to disqualify Pandaazuma for entering under multiple names, with a special welcome to newcomer Athenayama!

Here are the selection stats:

Player Tanaka Ichi K'shoho Yuma Abi K'waka Roga Hokuto Daiten   TB   Cons
Pandaazuma - + + + - MK + + - + 11 1.19
Rocks + - - + - MK - + - + 10 1.37
Holleshoryu + + + + - MK + + + + 12 1.37
Profomisakari - + - + - MK + + - + 10 1.09
ryafuji - + - - + 9-6 - + + - 11 1.63
Mmikasazuma - + + - + 8-7 + + - + 12 1.31
chishafuwaku + - - - + 8-7 + + - - 9 1.43
WAKATAKE + - - + - MK - + + - 11 1.63
Sakura - + - - - MK + + - - 10 1.22
Athenayama + + + - - MK + + - - 11 1.28
Ryoshishokunin - + - + + 8-7 + + - + 11 1.19
Achiyama + + - + - MK - + - + 13 1.22
Asashosakari + - + - + 8-7 + + - + 11 1.43
  7:6 9:4 5:8 7:6 5:8 9:4 13:0 3:10 8:5    
Results - - + - + (9-6) + + - -    

Abi is again our sole sanyaku representative for the game, and while it's still only a minority that believes in his continued kachikoshi chances, his haul of supporting votes is at least larger than the solitary one he attracted last time. Up'n'coming talent Roga managed to procure the first unanimous slate since Toyonoshima did it back in January, so we're down to only eight in-play rikishi.

The most mainstream selections have come courtesy of Profomisakari this basho, whose entry missed out on voting completely with the majority by the most narrow of margins - he's only on the short side of Tanakayama's 7:6. The biggest outliers, conversely, were provided by ryafuji and WAKATAKE with identical overall consensus scores, although their selections aren't all that similar on an individual basis. ryafuji's entry includes the greater number of unusual choices with no less than six of them, while WAKATAKE has gone against the grain on just four but they're more lopsided ones.

The vast majority of entries agree on between 3 and 7 slots this time. The notable exceptions are a trio of pairings that concurred on 8 rikishi - Achiyama/Rocks (all but Ichiyamamoto), Pandaazuma/Profomisakari (Kotoshoho) and Profomisakari/Ryoshishokunin (Abi). Opposite them, we have the astounding duo of Mmikasazuma and WAKATAKE who achieved the feat of disagreeing on everybody bar unanimous Roga.

Rather clustered tie-breaker choices this time with nearly half the field sitting on picks of 11, with multiple entries also for 10 and 12, and single outliers on 9 and 13.

Good luck, everyone!

Edited by Asashosakari
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And catching up on the early results...

The first decision of the basho was awarded in undesirable fashion, as Ichiyamamoto's Day 1 injury and subsequent withdrawal meant he was makekoshi by nakabi. Good news for the four players who expected that outcome, though I doubt anybody wanted to see it happen that way. In proper LKS results news:

Day 9

Not that it's going to help anybody win this thing, but Roga achieved his universally expected kachikoshi that day.

Day 10

Another KK, this time for youngster Kotonowaka in juryo. This one was widely expected as well with 9 winning votes. And finally...

Day 11

Rookie Tanakayama's debut KK streak reached its end in his makushita debut as he fell to 2-4 today. Just under half of us predicted that one correctly.


The 14-strong supporting cast of rikishi on 4 KK streaks has also seen a number of decisions already: Terunofuji (Day 8) and Yamatoarashi (Day 11) have earned entry to the first 2020 ballot, while Kaiyudai (Day 7), Tochiseiryu, Asanojo (both Day 10) and Hodaka (Day 11) have all missed out via makekoshi. Hodaka was one of five rikishi trying to maintain a debut streak here, the others are still battling on either 3-2 or 3-3 right now.


The still fairly early standings...no perfect scores left (Tanakayama eliminated the last two today, Asashosakari and chishafuwaku):

Day 11:
4/9 Decisions, TB 4-17
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Asashosakari 3 11
1 Pandaazuma 3 11
1 Profomisakari 3 10
1 Ryoshishokunin 3 11
1 Sakura 3 10
6 chishafuwaku 3 9
6 Mmikasazuma 3 12
8 Athenayama 2 11
8 Rocks 2 10
8 ryafuji 2 11
8 WAKATAKE 2 11
12 Holleshoryu 2 12
13 Achiyama 1 13

 

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Day 12

Today has moved us a lot closer to the finish line already, courtesy of three more results: Rookie Daitenma's debut KK streak is over in his 6th tournament, and Yuma has also bowed out in his 7th tournament after coming back from injury via maezumo. Up in juryo, however, it's another kachikoshi for sekitori debutant Kotoshoho.

All three of these outcomes were minority predictions, so the scoring was relatively low. All the more reason to congratulate our own debutant Athenayama on his perfect three-point day! The remaining players were split roughly evenly, with 5 two-pointers, 3 scores of one point, and 4 blanks.

Three new decisions among the backuppers as well, all of them kachikoshi: Suzuki and Kotosusumu will be joining the ballot with 5 straight KK from their professional debuts, while Ayakaze (not to be confused with ex-maegashira Amakaze) is already in his 10th year of ozumo.

The updated standings:

Day 12:
7/9 Decisions, TB 8-15
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Asashosakari 5 11
1 Athenayama 5 11
1 Mmikasazuma 5 12
4 Sakura 5 10
5 chishafuwaku 5 9
6 Pandaazuma 4 11
6 ryafuji 4 11
8 Holleshoryu 3 12
8 Ryoshishokunin 3 11
8 WAKATAKE 3 11
11 Profomisakari 3 10
12 Rocks 2 10
13 Achiyama 1 13
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Day 13

One plus two more results today, all of the negative variety: 12-year veteran Hokutoo finally ran out of luck and wasn't able to achieve his fifth straight 4-3 record (which would have been his sixth KK overall), something most entrants expected correctly. Two applicants also failed with Amanoshima and rookie high schooler Tochikamiyama and they now won't be joining the ballot for Hatsu.

The standings are close to final, but...

Day 13:
8/9 Decisions, TB 8-12
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Sakura 6 10
2 Asashosakari 6 11
2 Athenayama 6 11
2 chishafuwaku 6 9
5 Mmikasazuma 6 12
6 Pandaazuma 5 11
7 Profomisakari 4 10
8 ryafuji 4 11
8 Ryoshishokunin 4 11
10 Rocks 3 10
11 WAKATAKE 3 11
12 Holleshoryu 3 12
13 Achiyama 2 13

Only komusubi Abi remains in play for points. Athenayama and Sakura expected him to finish makekoshi, the other three co-leaders entered a KK prediction. Consequently only these five players can still end the basho with the top score, and in what may be our most suspenseful home stretch ever, all five of them can still win the yusho outright! The lack of overlap in their tie-breaker predictions is enabling that. In other words, it's not just about Abi's finish - the remaining three bouts by backup rikishi with 3-3 records will be crucial as well. All three of them are in action tomorrow.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Haha, this is exciting and fun !
Although Abi is closer to KK than MK so I believe that the 3 co-leaders who predicted it are in better position for the final victory. :-)

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Day 14

The play-by-play for the LKS yusho decision:

First up was youngster Daikisho in sandanme, trying to achieve a turnaround kachikoshi from an 0-3 start - and he came through, scoring his 5th KK to enter the next ballot. The tie-breaker moved up to 9, which robbed Sakura of one of her avenues to the victory, and eliminated chishafuwaku entirely.

Next in action but still in sandanme, former maegashira Amakaze, oddly enough also battling back from 0-3. And it was a successful Day 14 for him as well, so he too gets to join the game properly for January. Sakura's chances dwindled yet again and so did Mmikasazuma's this time, but neither fell out of contention entirely.

And lastly, new phenom Asanoyama's tsukebito Asakishin in makushita. Alas, no 5th kachikoshi for him. It was all over for Mmikasazuma now, and Athenayama also was no longer able to win the yusho.

With a final tiebreaker score of either 10 or 11 and Abi's result yet to come, it was between Sakura on the MK-expecting side and Asashosakari among the optimists. And Abi did it, beating ozeki Takakeisho to complete a full calendar year of kachikoshi. The last LKS yusho winner of 2019 is Asashosakari! It's his 11th yusho overall and second of the year. chishafuwaku and Mmikasazuma end the tournament as joint runner-ups.

The final standings, a day early this time:

Day 15:
9/9 Decisions, TB 11
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Asashosakari 7 11
2 chishafuwaku 7 9
2 Mmikasazuma 7 12
4 Athenayama 6 11
5 Sakura 6 10
6 Pandaazuma 5 11
6 ryafuji 5 11
6 Ryoshishokunin 5 11
9 Profomisakari 4 10
10 WAKATAKE 3 11
11 Holleshoryu 3 12
11 Rocks 3 10
13 Achiyama 2 13


Ballot update and new banzuke tomorrow.

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How much better than a coinflip are we, on average in the long term?  Obviously yokozuna-level LKSing is better than a coinflip, but the rest of us sure aren't.

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I never got around to finalizing things here... BTW, I came to realize that Sakura and I had our final results on the line with the last competing rikishi back in Aki, too. Anyway...


The new ballot for Hatsu 2020:

    Tanakayama      8*
    Ichiyamamoto    6
 1. Kotoshoho       7
    Yuma            6**
 2. Abi             6
 3. Kotonowaka      6
 4. Roga            6*
    Hokutoo         5
    Daitenma        5*
 5. Terunofuji      5
 6. Yamatoarashi    5
 7. Amakaze         5
 8. Suzuki          5
 9. Daikisho        5
10. Kotosusumu      5
11. Ayakaze         5
---
12. Kotoyuki        4
13. Yutakayama      4
14. Akua            4

Back to a somewhat more respectable ballot size to open the new decade.

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Scores for banzuke purposes:

Asashosakari 9 (7+top+tb)
chishafuwaku 8 (7+top)
Mmikasazuma 8 (7+top)
Athenayama 7 (6+tb)
Sakura 6
Pandaazuma 6 (5+tb)
ryafuji 6 (5+tb)
Ryoshishokunin 6 (5+tb)
Profomisakari 4
WAKATAKE 4 (3+tb)
Holleshoryu 3
Rocks 3
Achiyama 2

Total: 72 / 13 = 5.54 ---> +2 wins


The new banzuke for Hatsu 2020:

Asashosakari (O2e 11-4 Y)   Y   ---
Mmikasazuma (O1e 10-5 J)    O   chishafuwaku (O1w 10-5 J)
ryafuji (S1w 8-7)           S   Sakura (M1e 8-7)
wolfgangho (Ke kosho)       K   Ryoshishokunin (M3e 8-7)
Athenayama (NR 9-6)         M1  Pandaazuma (M5e 8-7)
Tenshinhan (M2e kosho)      M2  WAKATAKE (Kw 6-9)
Rocks (S1e 5-10)            M3  robnplunder (M3w kosho)
Tsuchinoninjin (M4e kosho)  M4  Profomisakari (M4w 6-9)
Achiyama (M1w 4-11)         M5  Holleshoryu (NR 5-10)
kuroimori (S2w 0-0-15)      M6  Jejima (M2w 0-0-15)

This one was tough to decide, but with outright yusho victories in both Nagoya and Kyushu and a respectable enough solo 4th place 9-6 result in Aki basho in between, it was finally time to pull the trigger - Asashosakari has been promoted as the second ever yokozuna in the just over 10-year history of LKS! It only took 5 yusho as ozeki and around 10 tsunatori opportunities over the years...

Ozeki pair Mmikasazuma and chishafuwaku have both finished co-runner-up in the last two tournaments (doten in Aki, jun in Kyushu), which prompted some consideration as well, but with no yusho in there nor at any other point in their ozeki tenures, there's just not enough of a body of work yet to merit the white rope. Hatsu basho could change that in a hurry, of course.

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On 24/11/2019 at 03:36, Ryoshishokunin said:

How much better than a coinflip are we, on average in the long term?  Obviously yokozuna-level LKSing is better than a coinflip, but the rest of us sure aren't.

I remember you asked that a few basho before, too, and I didn't have an answer then. I still don't really have the data in an easily processed form, especially not on a per-player basis, but as a rudimentary data point: Over the last five years (2015-2019), there have been altogether 3365 correct predictions out of 5902, or 57.0%. Four tournaments out of these 30 clocked in below 50% (low point 37.6%), three tournaments finished above 65% (high point 68.9%).

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