Yubinhaad

Izutsu-oyakata has died

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I heard that Shikoroyama was ready to absorb them but Izutsu had specifically asked to remain in the ichimon, so Tokitsukaze beya will be absorbing them. That's what I heard.. 

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On 18/09/2019 at 01:19, Swami said:

I'm just looking at the banzuke for the 1984 Aki Basho, and it is quite a sobering thought:

All three Yokozuna passed away (Kitanoumi, Chiyonofuji & Takanosato_

One ozeki passed away (Hokutenyu)

One sekiwake passed away (Sakahoko)

Of the maegashira, Itai (ex-komusubi), Kurama (ex-sekiwake), Kitao (ex-Yokozuna Futahaguro) and Hachiya have passed away.

That's a sizeable proportion.

 

Swami

And Ozeki Wakashimazu has suffered an accident and ill health in recent years as well.

It’s not much happier looking at the guys in Juryo that basho either. Ex-Sekiwake Tochihikari and Tochiakagi are gone. Ex-Maegashira 1s Wakasegawa and Amanoyama are gone, along with other hiramaku Tochimatoi and Shishiho. 

Edited by Eikokurai
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23 hours ago, Swami said:

I'm just looking at the banzuke for the 1984 Aki Basho, and it is quite a sobering thought:

...

That's a sizeable proportion.

 

After 35 years. That is 9 out of 66, and most of them were already near retirement.  That proportion is not all that sizeable

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51 minutes ago, Asojima said:

After 35 years. That is 9 out of 66, and most of them were already near retirement.  That proportion is not all that sizeable

Maybe, but in a country with such a high life expectancy...

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1 hour ago, Asojima said:

After 35 years. That is 9 out of 66, and most of them were already near retirement.  That proportion is not all that sizeable

Swami only mentioned makuuchi, so it's 9 out of 38. (Actually 10 out of 38 because Hoo is deceased as well, though the database does not show it.)  Expanded to juryo, it's 16 out of 66.

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3 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

I heard that Shikoroyama was ready to absorb them but Izutsu had specifically asked to remain in the ichimon, so Tokitsukaze beya will be absorbing them. That's what I heard.. 

Well, it makes totally sense, that the most prestigious heya of the ichimon will absorb the Yokozuna and the lower ranked rikishi (in case none of the two will retire after the basho).

What's also interesting: will his brother get the Izutsu share (and thereby transfer it to the Nishonoseki-ichimon - which would strengthen their political power by one more vote)? Or is it moto-Sakahoko's will, that the kabu has to remain with the Tokitsukaze group alongside his deshi?

To preserve the current balance of power, the heirs of Izutsu could simply swap shares with moto-Terao and sell the Shikoroyama kabu within Tokitsukaze-ichimon - at least that appears to me as the easiest way to do it (unless the heirs do not care who will get it and simply sell the share to the highest bidder).

I guess we will have to wait and see what will predominate in the end: family ties or ichimon-affiliation.

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37 minutes ago, ryafuji said:

Swami only mentioned makuuchi, so it's 9 out of 38. (Actually 10 out of 38 because Hoo is deceased as well, though the database does not show it.)  Expanded to juryo, it's 16 out of 66.


That's actually a blunder that I made some time ago here, reporting that Hoo had died without confirmation, and still haven't been able to verify one way or the other. (Wearingapaperbag...)

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14 minutes ago, Yubinhaad said:


That's actually a blunder that I made some time ago here, reporting that Hoo had died without confirmation, and still haven't been able to verify one way or the other. (Wearingapaperbag...)

Yes I remember the discussions both here and on Wikipedia about it. Japanese Wikipedia still has him deceased as of 16th January 2013 though I don't know how reliable their source is.

Edited by ryafuji
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7 hours ago, Asojima said:

After 35 years. That is 9 out of 66, and most of them were already near retirement.  That proportion is not all that sizeable

That’s a 13.6% mortality rate among men (who should be) in the 55-65 age range, or the equivalent of 13,600 deaths per every 100,000 people in that demographic. In the USA it’s approximately 900 out of a 100,000 population for males aged 55-59 and 1,300 for 60-64 year olds. That gives us rates of 0.9% and 1.3%, far below the mortality rate seen in this sample of sumo wrestlers. The rate seen among Aki 1984 rikishi is virtually identical to the rates seen among 85+ year olds in America.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241572/death-rate-by-age-and-sex-in-the-us/

http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=587

 

Edit: In fact, it’s worse. It’s 16 out of 66. That’s the equivalent of about 8 of my dad’s class at school already having passed away, a number which might lead to a police investigation.

Edited by Eikokurai

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27 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

That’s a 13.6% mortality rate among men in the 55-65 age range, or the equivalent of 13,600 deaths per every 100,000 people in that demographic. In the USA it’s approximately 900 out of a 100,000 population for males aged 55-59 and 1,300 for 60-64 year olds. That gives us rates of 0.9% and 1.3%, far below the mortality rate seen in this sample of sumo wrestlers. The rate seen among Aki 1984 rikishi is virtually identical to the rates seen among 85+ year olds in America.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241572/death-rate-by-age-and-sex-in-the-us/

http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=587

Finally my demographics class can prove itself useful! Unfortunately, that's not how several things work. 

A mortality rate refers to the number of deaths *in one specific year* divided by the population in the midpoint of that span (generally July 1st in calendar years, even though it's not the midpoint of the year). So, it is expected that in a population with the characteristics of 2004 USA (the data360.org set), we can assume that 900 deaths of 55-59 year old males will come from a population of 100,000 55-59 year old males in the next year. 

Contrast that to a risk of death, which is the number of deaths coming from a population in one year divided by the total population at the *start* of that year. Said population is usually sex- and age-specific. 

I'm afraid your 13.6% figure isn't a mortality rate at all, nor is the population it concerns "55- to 65-year-old males". It is the estimator of the cumulative risk of death for an Aki 1984 sekitori from 1985-2019. To approximately compare it with the contrasting figure for the American population, you have to take the product of the complements for the risks of death that match the ages of the sekitori in question for each year (e. g., one minus risk of death for 28-year-old males in 1985 multiplied by one minus risk of death for 29-year-old males in 1986, etc until 2019), and then subtract the whole thing from 1.

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7 minutes ago, Atenzan said:

Finally my demographics class can prove itself useful! Unfortunately, that's not how several things work. 

A mortality rate refers to the number of deaths *in one specific year* divided by the population in the midpoint of that span (generally July 1st in calendar years, even though it's not the midpoint of the year). So, it is expected that in a population with the characteristics of 2004 USA (the data360.org set), we can assume that 900 deaths of 55-59 year old males will come from a population of 100,000 55-59 year old males in the next year. 

Contrast that to a risk of death, which is the number of deaths coming from a population in one year divided by the total population at the *start* of that year. Said population is usually sex- and age-specific. 

I'm afraid your 13.6% figure isn't a mortality rate at all, nor is the population it concerns "55- to 65-year-old males". It is the estimator of the cumulative risk of death for an Aki 1984 sekitori from 1985-2019. To approximately compare it with the contrasting figure for the American population, you have to take the product of the complements for the risks of death that match the ages of the sekitori in question for each year (e. g., one minus risk of death for 28-year-old males in 1985 multiplied by one minus risk of death for 29-year-old males in 1986, etc until 2019), and then subtract the whole thing from 1.

Ha. I did have a disclaimer at first saying I’m not a statistician. Should have kept it.

Still, 9 out of 38 deaths among a group of men who were my present age (36 on Sunday) in 1984 seems remarkably higher than normal however you slice it. As I said, if my dad’s classmates at school died in such numbers it would be shocking. (He’s approaching 61, born in 1958.)

Edited by Eikokurai

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9 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

 

Still, 9 out of 38 deaths among a group of men who were my present age (36 on Sunday) in 1984 seems remarkably higher than normal however you slice it. As I said, if my dad’s classmates at school died in such numbers it would be shocking. (He’s approaching 61, born in 1958.)

 

It is a huge disparity compare to  average Japanese male life span.   No doubt that Ozumo is a life shortening profession.   

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25 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Ha. I did have a disclaimer at first saying I’m not a statistician. Should have kept it.

Still, 9 out of 38 deaths among a group of men who were my present age (36 on Sunday) in 1984 seems remarkably higher than normal however you slice it. As I said, if my dad’s classmates at school died in such numbers it would be shocking. (He’s approaching 61, born in 1958.)

You'd be surprised. I just downloaded the US life tables from 2002, being the midpoint of 1985 and 2019, and the CDC version includes a "number of survivors by age and sex per 100,000 live births" matrix. Using it for a rough estimate, a 25-year-old American man in 1985 had a 13.41% chance of dying before the year 2019, in which he'd turn 59 or 60, was out. 

edit: you can download them here

Edited by Atenzan
people can have birthdays throughout the year which to be fair is quite rude, i mean who do you think you are

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3 minutes ago, Atenzan said:

You'd be surprised. I just downloaded the US life tables from 2002, being the midpoint of 1985 and 2019, and the CDC version includes a "number of survivors by age and sex per 100,000 live births" matrix. Using it for a rough estimate, a 25-year-old American man in 1985 had a 13.41% chance of dying before the year 2019, in which he'd turn 60, was out. 

edit: you can download them here

Is a 13% chance of dying the same as 13% of that demographic dying? Genuine question. 

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10 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

 

It is a huge disparity compare to  average Japanese male life span.   No doubt that Ozumo is a life shortening profession.   

Yeah, not really. Significant? Yes. Huge? No. Using my minimum-effort method, a rough estimate is that 9.04% of Japanese men aged 25 in 1985 would die before reaching the age of 60 in 2020.

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4 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Is a 13% chance of dying the same as 13% of that demographic dying? Genuine question. 

If the rate of life expectancy was linear or close to it between the years 1985 and 2019, you can expect it to be. It's not an exact figure, just the best estimate I'm willing to make without getting paid ;) 

Edited by Atenzan

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1 minute ago, Atenzan said:

If the rate of life expectancy was linear or close to it between the years 1985 and 2019, you can expect it to be. It's not an exact figure, just the best estimate I'm willing to make without getting paid ;) 

Ha. Fair enough. Thanks.

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4 hours ago, robnplunder said:

 

It is a huge disparity compare to  average Japanese male life span.   No doubt that Ozumo is a life shortening profession.   

Given the steady increase of average weights since then, it doesn't bode well for future generations.

Swami

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21 hours ago, Atenzan said:

Finally my demographics class can prove itself useful! Unfortunately, that's not how several things work. 

etc..

You make me feel inadequate, sir..I didn't understand anything. But it sounds intriguing.. Wow.

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9 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

You make me feel inadequate, sir..I didn't understand anything. But it sounds intriguing.. Wow.

The ultimate conclusion is that being a rikishi increases your risk of dying before 60 pretty much as if you were an American man instead of a Japanese man. 

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Just found out today. Sad news indeed. I have remarked in the past on Kakuryu's incredibly deep grip on the aite's mawashi at times where he grabs it past the knot at the back. Watching Sakahoko's match against Chiyonofuji, I saw him employ the same grip. Like oyakata, like deshi.  

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Still no final decision as the wake is on the 24th and the service on the 25th and in any case, no decision will be made during the basho. Kagamiyama is temporary- the leading candidate is Tokitsukaze followed by  Oitekaze. Kakuryuu goes to train regularly at Tokitsukaze and seems to feel at home there, so that is the natural choice, but who knows.

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1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

Still no final decision as the wake is on the 24th and the service on the 25th and in any case, no decision will be made during the basho. Kagamiyama is temporary- the leading candidate is Tokitsukaze followed by  Oitekaze. Kakuryuu goes to train regularly at Tokitsukaze and seems to feel at home there, so that is the natural choice, but who knows.

Kakuryu would have no shortage of possible dohyo-iri attendants at Oitezake with Endo and the Daishos. In addition to the 7 sekitori there are 13 lower-division rikishi.

On the other hand, Tokitsukaze has 15 rikishi of whom 3 are sekitori. But that includes current attendant Shodai (who might be delighted not to have to face Kakuryu ever again). The stable also contains Shohoryu (Kakuryu's former tsukebito???)

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4 hours ago, Sakura said:

The stable also contains Shohoryu (Kakuryu's former tsukebito???)

A present tsukebito - and Shohoryu has started this year to do the yumitori-shiki as such - but apparently not at the basho so far

On 23/08/2019 at 14:36, Akinomaki said:

Shohoryu did the yumitori-shiki at the jungyo in Hakodate - he's a tsukebito of Kakuryu. At the 20 days of the jungyo till then, the task was shared equally between him and Hakuho's tsukebito Kasugaryu, who is the main performer since the Haru basho last year, and lately without a regular replacement. For the jungyo favorite shokkiri, the jungyo top took care to have a 3rd man as replacement, but the yumitori rikishi had none for a while. At the Haru jungyo in April, jungyo no 2. Hanakago asked Shohoryu if he can do it. At that jungyo he performed 3 times, but thought it "A total disaster". This time he practiced in between tsukebito duties, and maybe he'll get 3 days to perform at the Aki basho next.

Edited by Akinomaki
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5 hours ago, Sakura said:

The stable also contains Shohoryu (Kakuryu's former tsukebito???)

Oh, Shouasaryuu's nephew?

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