Terukuni

Next Yokozuna??????

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Hello guys,

I’d recently posted a thread about who might be the next yokozuna to retire, but I’ve also been thinking about who would end up being the next man to wear a belt. There is no clear Takanohana, Taiho, or Hakuho in sight, and the two current yokozuna are getting old. Who do you guys think would be the next man to wear a rope?

Personally, I think that one of the current ozeki will manage to pull together 2 yusho, and earn promotion. If that happens, the next yokozuna probably will not last to long, and would probably not win a lot of yusho. If that does not happen, I’m sure that either Takakeisho or some new guy will become a yokozuna. Sooner or later, it is going to happen.

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Gagamaru clearly.

 

Nah I think the clear favorite is Tomokaze now. Mitakeumi maaaybe. Takakeisho I don't think so, these small guys can't really compete without the injury man coming to visit. I know Harumafuji managed but his sumo was really special.

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Posted (edited)

Unless the two Yokozuna retire, there isn't anyone to replace their place.   Mitakeumi seems to be content at occupying a Sanyuku spot.  Takakeisho is just too one dimensional to go beyond Ozeki rank.   Tomokaze looks promising but not while Hak & Kak are present.  Healthy & mean Ichinojo is a possibility but he never seems to be healthy more than a basho at a time.  Takayasu is getting on age so he is unlikely to mount a Yokizuna run.  Ditto for Tochinochin.    Takagenji looked good for a basho and a half and then lost 10 in a row to finish the last one.   If it was due to an injury, I like Takakenji's chance.   He has the size, strength, and agility.    Speaking of, Hoshoryu also has the aforementioned three ingredients.    All he has to do is bulk up at the right places.   Despite MK at the last basho, I he will go far.  Further down the ladder, it is hard for me to see who has such potential.    Having said the above, after Hak & Kak retire, and the current crop of older Ozeki (Goeido, Takayasu, Tochinochin) start to act their age, it may be wide open and someone and put together a multiple yusho run.   

Edited by robnplunder
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3 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Takakeisho I don't think so, these small guys can't really compete without the injury man coming to visit. I know Harumafuji managed but his sumo was really special.

Are you referring to size or weight? Harumafuji was rather light for sure, but certainly not small, while Takakeisho is small, but not particularly light.

And the combination of small (= under 1,75 m) and bulky (= over 140 kg) seems to be a rather good way to avoid the injury man, at least if you look at the careers of recent examples like Takekaze, Toyonoshima or Yoshikaze.

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Posted (edited)

If his leg injury is fully healed and he can regain his Ozeki status next basho, my money is on Takakeisho. To me he just seems to have the "it" factor as well as the mental fortitude to make the leap.

The early returns on Tomokaze are excellent, but I think we need to at least see how he performs at Sanyaku before rushing to anoint him the next Yokozuna.

While Kisenosato was still active and healthy I would have said Takayasu, as the two seemed to lift one other to new heights through their training, but with Kisenosato gone, he appears to have lost his mojo. 

And finally, my dark horse: Abi.

Edited by Kaninoyama

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Posted (edited)

Probably someone none of us expect. I mean, look at the last few ozeki promotions. Shodai was the next ozeki, right? Then Takayasu, who couldn't string back to back KKs together, got promoted; then Tochinoshin, who was on no one's radar until he won that yusho; then Takakeisho, who was too short and one-dimensional to ever make it above sekiwake... Meanwhile, Shodai has turned into something of an also ran.

All I know for sure is that the next yokozuna will be an ozeki for at least 2 basho, but I have no idea who that ozeki will be. It could be any of the present incumbents, but it could also be someone still toriteki atm.

Edited by RabidJohn
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1 hour ago, Kaninoyama said:

And finally, my dark horse: Abi.

Seconded! When Abi gets the rope, I can finally quit watching sumo for good.

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Posted (edited)

I'll go with Shinkaio Hokutofuji. From day 1 in the grinder, he's always looked like he belongs there - sure, he hasn't destroyed everyone in his path, but results have been more than enough to hang in there with the best of the best and manage leveled results. It never felt like he was out of his depth. The moment they age beyond repair + he finally gets that little extra to push him towards a superior level, he's the one.

Edited by Koorifuu
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No love for Asanoyama? Shame *dingeling* shame *dingeling*...

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I’m learning toward Takakeisho if he stays healthy and develops more. Tomokaze might be the one if he stays healthy and can hang with the sanyaku. The other three ozeki are too inconsistent or too broken to make the cut. No one else is dominant enough now, but that’s what the future is for. Someone will someday wear a new rope, and it’s going to be Takakeisho, Tomokaze, or someone else not yet considered.

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If the problem is the suppression of candidates by the current Yokozuna (especially Hakuho), then watch for guys gaining Jun-Yusho.  When Hak & Kak are gone, the lid will come off and those guys will be getting the Yusho.

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2 hours ago, Benihana said:

No love for Asanoyama? Shame *dingeling* shame *dingeling*...

He’s the closest right now to what a Yokozuna *ought to* look like. I think he could do with a bit more muscle, but he’s a proper yotsu specialist in an era with not that many. He could step up if things fall into place for him at the right time, in terms of retirements above him.

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Posted (edited)

Asa has been in makuuchi for 2 years, and while he has a yusho to his name he is still yet to KK above M8. I would expect someone with yokozuna aptitude, who came into sumo as a mature collegiate rikishi with a 160kg body and years of sumo experience, to be moving faster than that. I still need a lot of convincing for his case...

Edited by Katooshu
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3 hours ago, Benihana said:

No love for Asanoyama? Shame *dingeling* shame *dingeling*...

I go for Asanoyama as the 2nd college graduate yokozuna.

He has found the right spirit, he just has to stick to it. He has the right body, he just has to keep working on it. He has to refine his technique and needs more experience in the higher ranks.

It looks like he's doing the right sumo to avoid injury, so he just has to wait till the others fade away and he'll end up on top.

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Posted (edited)

Atm, I'd still favour Mitakeumi as the 2nd former collegiate yokozuna rather than Asanoyama. At least Mitakeumi's proven that he belongs at the higher levels, and if it's a case of attrition, he's there.

Edited by RabidJohn

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Posted (edited)

Takayasu if he can stop getting injured.  He's been hovering around the place in my rating system where one expects the results of someone who's just barely good enough to be Yokozuna, like Kisenosato.  It might not be until after Hakuho and Kakuryu retire, and he might not get another yusho while Yokozuna because he'll be pretty old be then, but he's currently the best candidate by far. 

As to who might develop into the next Yokozuna from where they are now, it would have to be Takakeisho based on his results vs. age plot, though Kotooshu also fits the same early age profile of Ozeki before 23 and ended up being disappointing the next eight or so years.  I'd also say Ichinojo, if he can get the willpower to lose his useless weight and return to his 2015 form, has a good chance, given how young he made it into the joi.  The rest of the "made joi before 23" candidates don't look nearly as able to get there (Onosho, Chiyootori, Tochiozan).  Ichinojo made the joi (Sekiwake even) at 21 and stayed in the joi a good number of basho, so he's clearly good enough.

The next in line on the results at an early age front is Takagenji, but while he was on the potentials list for a while, his one-off recent appearance on the list at M10 on his Makuuchi debut put him back on the list just barely and he'll be well behind the pace next basho.  After that there's Naya, Tsukahara, Kototebakari, and Hoshoryu, with Naya in the lead since he's a bit younger and about at the same place.

For long term prospects I'll throw in Kotakiyama.  He came in at 15 having been born in early January, so many months younger than other recruits out of middle school, and started with 3 straight KKs, with the last being a 6-1 to make it to Sd71 while still 15!  He's not gone all that much farther since then, but next basho will be his second in the top half of Sandanme.  He's not as far ahead of the curve right now compared to when he first made Sandanme, but he's still the best long-term prospect I can identify right now using my algorithmic age/rank comparison.  He apparently had some good results in middle school too.

On 02/12/2017 at 10:33, Akinomaki said:

Another uchi-deshi for Futagoyama-oyakata (Miyabiyama): Kento Souma 相馬健人 (14, 184cm, 125kg - from 173cm, 86kg at start of middle school) from Otawara, Tochigi will enter Fujishima-beya. He started sumo in 5th grade and caught the eye of Fujishima already in primary school: "I think he will lose the first 1, 2 years because he still lacks muscle strength, but he's big and eager to learn. No problem." Souma won with the school team as captain the Kanto championships and was in the best 8 at the national championships: "I'm not anxious, I'm looking forward to it." http://www.shimotsuke.co.jp/news/tochigi/sports/general/news/20171130/2890400

 

 

Edited by Gurowake
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As self-appointed director of the Sumoforum.net Goeidou fan club, I feel obligated to remind you all that Ozeki Goeidou exists. 

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15 minutes ago, Benevolance said:

As self-appointed director of the Sumoforum.net Goeidou fan club, I feel obligated to remind you all that Ozeki Goeidou exists. 

as a Goeido "in the closet" fan, I have to say that, that ship has sailed...

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Please do not mistake my comment for an endorsement. 

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6 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

I go for Asanoyama as the 2nd college graduate yokozuna.

He has found the right spirit, he just has to stick to it. He has the right body, he just has to keep working on it. He has to refine his technique and needs more experience in the higher ranks.

It looks like he's doing the right sumo to avoid injury, so he just has to wait till the others fade away and he'll end up on top.

Unfortunately, there is no way to prevent injury by performing "right sumo". That's because "right sumo" which theoretically should prevent injury, doesn't exist. It doesn't really take much for a rikishi to twist a knee more than expected, not protect his back properly when encountering large strong opponents, fall the wrong way, and undergo many other mishaps.  Sumo may be the ultimate atheltic activity having to do with bodily contact and injury is part of the game. 

Almost every rikishi gets hurt, although Kyokutenho seems to be one of the rare exceptions. While he had a  long and successful career and even won a yusho, because of his style which kept him from being badly injured, he was never a threat to reach the highest ranks. When people talk about future yokozunas, ozekis, etc., they refer to rikishis who have excellent tecnique and use it to its ultimate efffect. There is a very fine line between doing that and going just beyond what the human body can tolerate.

 The degree to which a rikishi is injured and how well he recovers can spell the difference between great success and mediocrity. There are two very simple words to bear in mind concerning any potentially outstanding rikishi. Those words are "barring injury". 

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2 hours ago, Benevolance said:

As self-appointed director of the Sumoforum.net Goeidou fan club, I feel obligated to remind you all that Ozeki Goeidou exists. 

Is it too early to use the phrase "bargain-counter Kaio"?(Beingunsure...)

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Posted (edited)

I think that either Asanoyama or Tomokaze have the best chance of becoming the next Yokozuna, among the current makuuchi rikishi. If they can gain more muscle, and NOT GET THEIR KNEES INJURED, they will almost definently become an Ozeki, or at least a very successful wrestler.

Tochinoshin was on fire, and Takayasu was putting together some great 12-3 records, but injuries and bad training have slowed them down. If Tochinoshin can recover from his injuries and stay injury-free, he has a pretty good shot. He made some impressive waves in 2018, UNTIL HE GOT INJURED. Then, Goeidou has been stringing together 12-3 records as well. But, it truly is a wide open spot. You never know, someone else could randomly explode (like Chiyonofuji did), or there might be some unknown power coming from the lower divisions. I’m pretty sure that the 73rd Yokozuna is an active rikishi by this point.

Edited by Terukuni

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8 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

Atm, I'd still favour Mitakeumi as the 2nd former collegiate yokozuna rather than Asanoyama. At least Mitakeumi's proven that he belongs at the higher levels, and if it's a case of attrition, he's there.

Wajima was the first one, right?

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Takayasu's chance hasn't yet passed. He was on the yusho path in Nagoya before that kotenage, I could feel it in my bones.

Asasnoyama and Tomokaze seem like good well-rounded candidates, but I always hesitate to hype university rikishi that highly.

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57 minutes ago, Terukuni said:

I think that either Asanoyama or Tomokaze have the best chance of becoming the next Yokozuna, among the current makuuchi rikishi. If they can gain more muscle, and NOT GET THEIR KNEES INJURED, they will almost definently become an Ozeki, or at least a very successful wrestler.

Tochinoshin was on fire, and Takayasu was putting together some great 12-3 records, but injuries and bad training have slowed them down. If Tochinoshin can recover from his injuries and stay injury-free, he has a pretty good shot. He made some impressive waves in 2018, UNTIL HE GOT INJURED. Then, Goeidou has been stringing together 12-3 records as well. But, it truly is a wide open spot. You never know, someone else could randomly explode (like Chiyonofuji did), or there might be some unknown power coming from the lower divisions. I’m pretty sure that the 73rd Yokozuna is an active rikishi by this point.

Takayasu has great stamina for a big man, and he's often energetic.  Did he pick up bad habits from Kisenosato, who took a long time to get to Yokozuna?

Tochinoshin's first injury should have killed his career; the fact that he's where he is seems miraculous.  I don't think he has enough time left.

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