Sakura

Nagoya 2019 Discussion (here be spoilers)

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13 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Ichinojou will beat Hakuhou tomorrow. Anyone with me on this?

How did you know?

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40 minutes ago, Morty said:

How did you know?

He writes the script ;)

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2 hours ago, Gospodin said:

What did Hakuho do there ?

He’s too injured to muster the strength to counter Ichinojō’s size. Good win by Ichinojō, but it wouldn’t have happened against a not-as-injured Hakuhō.

It’s nice to see Kakuryū doing so well.

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Abi reverted to type today again. When is he going to learn to throw? 

Oh. Like that.

Did Takarafuji try to kick Daieisho in the nuts?

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1 hour ago, Morty said:

How did you know?

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

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Kinboshi for Ichinojo, and from Hakuho no less. Very nice, and makes the yusho race more interesting. I expect Kakuryu to lose at least two over the next six days. (This wasn't just about his size, or Hakuho's being injured. He took away all of Hakuho's options. You can see Hakuho trying to maneuver, but Ichinojo doesn't allow it. Yes, it might have gone differently with a healthier Hakuho, but credit where it's due: that was solid, powerful sumo from Ichinojo. A well-deserved gold star for him.) 

Takayasu's arm looks screwed. I'm surprised he was able to drive forward so strongly, even if he couldn't cinch the win. Nice throw from Shodai.

Tamawashi is surprisingly aerodynamic. 

 

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I’m not a huge fan of the “if so-and-so wasn’t hurt” thinking, because they wrestle who shows up in whatever condition they are in that day. These guys are pros, Hakuho’s gameplans have shifted with his injuries. I don’t know that Ichinojo’s gameplan shifted from “be huge,” but that countered the Hakuho that showed up effectively.

 

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Today was Ocean Day, Umi no hi in Japan. 20 rikishi with the kanji for umi  in the shikona were active today in all divisions, their bouts resulted in 10 wins and 10 losses. In juryo there was one umi confrontation: Kizakiumi vs Chiyonoumi. http://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/201907150001198.html

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1 hour ago, Churaumi said:

I’m not a huge fan of the “if so-and-so wasn’t hurt” thinking, because they wrestle who shows up in whatever condition they are in that day. These guys are pros, Hakuho’s gameplans have shifted with his injuries. I don’t know that Ichinojo’s gameplan shifted from “be huge,” but that countered the Hakuho that showed up effectively.

 

Well, and it makes it sounds like the win was a fluke, which is taking credit away from someone who deserves it. Hakuho's arm hasn't stopped him from kicking everyone else's ass this basho. Ichinojo was simply too much for him this time.

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Posted (edited)

I know he was 8-0 but last night was the first time I thought Kakuryu might win this basho.  With the other 3 Ozeki out and Takyasu not likely to be a factor he looks like he can grab it if he can keep the steam up.  I wouldn't count Hakuho out for sure but that's a pretty early loss for him. Kakuryu may not even need to beat him Day 15 to win if it comes down to that. If Ichinojo can win tonight it will be wide open though as I doubt either Yokozuna will get to Day 15 with only 1 loss then.

Great win for Ichinojo. You can tell Hakuho was slowing down a bit with each win so I wasn't surprised to see him lose. You never know with Ichinjojo though. Dumb loss for Mitakeumi, he's almost as bad as Ichinijo with determining whether his good sumo shows up. But he's still a bit better yet.  

One thing for sure last night. If Harumafuji was watching somewhere he was smiling. HNHs everywhere. Hit, move left, grab and fling. 

 

Oh, and very nice prediction by @Kintamayama . I'll make one for tonight. Takyasu henkas, badly,  but still gets his 8th win against Meisei tonight, then goes kyujo.

Edited by Rocks
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Hello statistic freaks... 

I would like to see the number of kinboshi Hakuho allowed in the last, let’s say 60 basho and how many percent of those went to fellow countrymen... Mongolians, that is.

my wild guess is between 75-85%

just wondering

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Andonishiki said:

my wild guess is between 75-85%

The correct answer has to be 20%.

Hakuho gave away 20 kinboshi alltogether. And only four of them to fellow mongolian: Shotenryu, Arawashi, Takanoiwa and today Ichinojo. 

 

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&shikona1=hakuho&rank1=y&onlyl1=on&shusshin2=59&rank2=m

Edited by Tsubame
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10 minutes ago, Andonishiki said:

Hello statistic freaks... 

I would like to see the number of kinboshi Hakuho allowed in the last, let’s say 60 basho and how many percent of those went to fellow countrymen... Mongolians, that is.

my wild guess is between 75-85%

just wondering

I don't know how to query it but my guess would be just the opposite. Outside of fellow Yokozuna, who are virtually all Mongolian, Hakuho very rarely loses to Mongolians, especially non-sanyaku.

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Posted (edited)

So Tomokaze picked up his 7th win today, and has six more days to secure his 13th straight kachikoshi promotion.  I think his odds are pretty good!

If reports are true, "Piano Man" will tie the current record holder, Kotooshu with his "pretty-much-a-sure-thing" 13th straight kachikoshi.  

Kotooshu was EM4 when he secured his 13th.  With a record of 9-5, he got bumped up to W Komusubi 1, and "hit the wall" (4-11).

So my advice to Tomokaze is to get that 8th win, but don't go crazy afterwards.  After all, he could potentially end this tournament with a 13-2 record!!!!

However, the best strategy to improve his chances of getting a record 14th-straight kachikoshi is to settle for a modest promotion, and hope to stay in the Maegashira ranks in September.

But dedicated fighters don't hold back just to protect a chance to break a improve their record.

The very fact that Tomokaze is on the verge of tying Kotooshu's record should give all fans an indication that Tomokaze has Ozeki potential at the very least...

Edited by Amamaniac
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Given all the people out with more to follow I think it's likely Tomokaze's competition is going to get much tougher. 10 wins is going to be tough I think.

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Posted (edited)

Yeah, it's time for at least a little hype. 9-6 at M13 was quite standard, the way he made a 8-7 KK from 5-7 at M9 was surprising and how he now is handling his opponents at M7 is quite impressing. Except for young Onosho and much older fellow makuuchi newbie Shimanoumi, had to deal with experienced guys ad he did it much better than expected. If he really ties Kotoshuu, we can go nuts over next Y/O Tomokaze.

Edited by Benihana

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16 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

So Tomokaze picked up his 7th win today, and his six more days to secure his 13th straight kachikoshi promotion.  I think his odds are pretty good!

If reports are true, "Piano Man" will tie the current record holder, Kotooshu with his "pretty-much-a-sure-thing" 13th straight kachikoshi.  

Kotooshu was EM4 when he secured his 13th.  With a record of 9-5, he got bumped up to W Komusubi 1, and "hit the wall" (4-11).

So my advice to Tomokaze is to get that 8th win, but don't go crazy afterwards.  After all, he could potentially end this tournament with a 13-2 record!!!!

However, the best strategy to improve his chances of getting a record 14-straight kachikoshi is to settle for a modest promotion, and hope to stay in the Maegashira ranks in September.

But dedicated fighters won't hold back just to protect a chance to break a record.

The very fact that Tomokaze is on the verge of tying Kotooshu's record should give all fans an indication that Tomokaze has Ozeki potential at the very least...

 

Doesn't Akebono hold that record, with 18 kachi-koshi from his debut?

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

So my advice to Tomokaze is to get that 8th win, but don't go crazy afterwards.  After all, he could potentially end this tournament with a 13-2 record!!!!

However, the best strategy to improve his chances of getting a record 14-straight kachikoshi is to settle for a modest promotion, and hope to stay in the Maegashira ranks in September.

That would imply aiming for losses after his eighth win. Even a 9-6 would probably put him right into the meatgrinder with all the same opponents as Komusubi have.

Edit: Thanks to Yubinhaad for getting the facts straight. All Tomokaze can hope for this time is tying Kotooshu's record for the fastest rise to sanyaku, so he better not stop at 8-7.

Edited by Jakusotsu
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32 minutes ago, Benihana said:

Yeah, it's time for at least a little hype. 9-6 at M13 was quite standard, the way he made a 8-7 KK from 5-7 at M9 was surprising and how he now is handling his opponents at M7 is quite impressing. Except for young Onosho and much older fellow makuuchi newbie Shimanoumi, had to deal with experienced guys ad he did it much better than expected. If he really ties Kotoshuu, we can go nuts over next Y/O Tomokaze.

Ozeki potential for sure.  I've been watching every basho since Mitakeumi's was in juryo.   Since then, I've seen many young rikishi rising up fast to Makuuchi level.  Of those who made the "rise," only Takakeisho has made the Ozeki rank.  All others have come and stalled.   Having said that, I think Tomokaze has the most potential to become Ozenki.   Let's not even mention the 'Y' word.  No one from college rank ever made it that far if I remember correctly.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Yubinhaad said:

Doesn't Akebono hold that record, with 18 kachi-koshi from his debut?

Thanks for providing the straight facts.  While listening to Roger Pradhan's commentary, I thought I heard him refer to Kotooshu, but that could have simply been to acknowledge Tokokaze matching the Bulgarian's record...

Despite having some impressive kachikoshi records along the way, Akebono was still down in the Juryo Division when he got his 13th kachikoshi.  

Conversely, both Kotooshu and Tomokaze (presumably) reached their 13th after three basho in the Makuuchi Top Division!!!  For them to have secured five or six more kachikoshi would have pushed/will push them up to East Sekiwake 1 at the very least.

Edited by Amamaniac

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Yubinhaad said:

Doesn't Akebono hold that record, with 18 kachi-koshi from his debut?

Yes, he does, but Akebono climbed up slower. His 13th KK was at J10. Yes, the slower climb came partly to ~80 more rikishi on the banzuke, but unlike Tomokaze he didn't score a single yusho in the lower divisions. I don't think he will go places like Akebono, but so far he's doing quite well in comparison.

Edited by Benihana
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2 hours ago, Dwale said:

Well, and it makes it sounds like the win was a fluke, which is taking credit away from someone who deserves it. Hakuho's arm hasn't stopped him from kicking everyone else's ass this basho. Ichinojo was simply too much for him this time.

That’s why I’m not a big fan of the argument. Ichinojo beat Hakuho fair-and-square. Hakuho is a pro, and if his judgment is that he can work around his ailments I trust he can do so. If Hakuho is too hurt to win, he sits. I can see how my quote might be misleading on my position, but I think we’re arguing in the same direction @Dwale.

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Folks, Ichinojo's record against Hak is now 3-12.  Statistically, he has beaten Hak 20% of the time he faced.   Given the two's ages, that percentage will likely to increase.  It was a good win for Ichinojo.  Let those futons fly!

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10 minutes ago, Churaumi said:

That’s why I’m not a big fan of the argument. Ichinojo beat Hakuho fair-and-square. Hakuho is a pro, and if his judgment is that he can work around his ailments I trust he can do so. If Hakuho is too hurt to win, he sits. I can see how my quote might be misleading on my position, but I think we’re arguing in the same direction @Dwale.

Yeah, I was agreeing with you, up to a point. Also, I never heard anyone say "Well, if Ichinojo's back had been healthy..." whenever the match went the other way.

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