Gurowake

Promotion Discussion thread - Natsu 2019

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Posted (edited)

Sanyaku:

With Tochinoshin's repromotion confirmed, the number of open spots is mostly settled on 3, but Aoiyama could still in theory keep his spot with a win over Ryuden and a loss by Abi, as there are only 2 candidates outside sanyaku with a record warranting promotion: Tamawashi and Asanoyama.  Because of Abi's fairly strong schedule for an M4 he might beat out Aoiyama even with a loss, but I'd say that lack of sanyaku experience and numbers short of promotion would work against him.  Thus I predict Abi is Komusubi if he wins, and otherwise it's the winner of Aoiyama-Ryuden.  The other Komusubi will be Asanoyama, meaning I'm predicting the Sekiwake will be Tamawashi and Mitakeumi.  Even if they both lose, which means Asanoyama wins over Mitakeumi, while Asanoyama would be ahead of Tamawashi on numbers, Asanoyama's schedule was much weaker and he has no sanyaku, let alone Sekiwake, experience.  It was a truism a while ago that a KK Komusubi would claim a Sekiwake spot if it was open, but that was demolished a year or so ago, so it's possible that Asanoyama could leap Mitakeumi as well, but it seems unlikely for the same reasons. 

My speculation on East/West is that Mitakeumi takes East Sekiwake unless both results go against him.  Asanoyama will probably be East Komusubi, but it might go to Abi with a win and a loss by Asanoyama.

Of note is that Tamawashi faces Abi on Day 15, but Abi can't pass Tamawashi in numbers, so the fact they meet each other doesn't really affect things; by that I mean there's no interconnectedness of their results like there is for Aoiyama-Ryuden that makes considering the fact that they're meeting allow us to disregard certain possibilities (like both Aoiyama and Ryuden losing).  All of Abi's possibilities are distinct from all of Tamawashi's.

 

Edited by Gurowake
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Posted (edited)

Makuuchi <-> Juryo:

Out: Chiyoshoma, Ishiura, Tokushoryu

In: Toyonoshima, Takagenji, Kotoyuki

No one can get worse numbers than those already slated for demotion, and those three top Juryo performers should be safe even with losses as there's no one else particularly close to promotion.  Terutsuyoshi might still end up demotable, but the best candidate to replace him is Takanosho, who would still need to win, and he would still be two wins short of normal promotion while Terutsuyoshi would only be one match away from being safe.

(On a side note, I add most all Makuuchi rikishi names to my Firefox spell check dictionary.  I made an exception for Yago and Abi since they're so short.  Anyway, it was clearly time to add Takagenji, and I'm always amused by what suggestions pop up when I right click them to add them to the dictionary.  For Takagenji it was "Mutagenic".)

 

Edited by Gurowake
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Missing Pierre this basho. Thanks for stepping in.

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What Pandaazuma said. ^^

Them's big boots to fill!

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Posted (edited)

Juryo <-> Makushita:

This one is a real doozy.  There are three rikishi definitely demoted: the kyujo Chiyonokuni and Hakuyozan, along with Churanoumi.  Three rikishi remain on the bubble: Seiro, Akiseyama, and Irodori.  That means there's up to 6 promotions possible, and none of the rikishi are in particularly good positions to not suffer demotion with losses, given Seiro as the last rikishi in the division and Irodori and Akiseyama being a rank below where they might be more likely to get a lucky nondemotion.

For candidates to go up, we have plenty.  We'll definitely see Takayoshitoshinofuji back in Juryo, but I don't think I'm qualified to speak firmly about the rest.  We have 4-3 Ms2e Kotokamatani, 5-2 Ms3e Ichiyamamoto, 5-2 Ms3w Kizakiumi, and 5-1 Ms4w Ryuko who faces Seiro all in prime position, and other than Kizakiumi clearly being behind Ichiyamamoto, and Ryuko further behind with a loss, I'm not sure about the order they would go up, especially after their defiance of convention recently with Tomokaze's promotion.  Also available for promotion is 4-3 Ms4w Hoshoryu, who definitely needs all the Juryo rikishi on the bubble to lose and is clearly behind the rest.  4-3 Ms5e Tamaki is definitely out.

Edited by Gurowake
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6 minutes ago, Pandaazuma said:

Missing Pierre this basho. Thanks for stepping in.

There's no way I would have the time to do as much as Asashosakari does.  I'm only doing this because I would normally do it anyway, regardless of what Asashosakari would say.  I have plenty of time on Saturday most basho (except possibly not March) to go over all this stuff, but during the week while I could make it a priority, I'd rather do other things.

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Posted (edited)

It looks like I started this in the wrong forum.  Once it dropped off the most recent 5 threads list I think people stopped noticing it because they're not coming to this forum.  Maybe if I bump @Jakusotsu he can move it to Honbasho talk and erase this post.

Edited by Jakusotsu
Done.

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Thanks!  This is always my favorite thread.  

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It looks like the banzuke-makers have scheduled several sanyaku playoff bouts for senshuraku.  Winner of Asanoyama vs Mitakeumi would likely take a sekiwake spot, as would the winner of Abi vs Tamwashi.  Ryuden vs Aoyama for the west komusubi spot if Abi loses.

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1 hour ago, Ack! said:

It looks like the banzuke-makers have scheduled several sanyaku playoff bouts for senshuraku.  Winner of Asanoyama vs Mitakeumi would likely take a sekiwake spot, as would the winner of Abi vs Tamwashi.  Ryuden vs Aoyama for the west komusubi spot if Abi loses.

How could Abi beating Tamawshi possibly change their relative ranking on the next banzuke?  Head to head results are practically irrelevant and only matter if there's no obvious clear cut answer.  But here there is.  Abi is ranked lower than Tamawashi and cannot surpass him in wins.

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So the Sanyaku spots are  relatively clear now with Mitakeumi, Tamawashi, Asanoyama and Abi set to take them. Ryuden, Aoyama, Hokutofuji, Shodai, Ryuden, Endo, and Daieisho will be jo-i, exciting second half  of makuuchi match ups ahead.

Terutsuyoshi despite his loss today will probably get lucky and will stay in makuuchi thanks to not enough juryo rikishi worth promotion. As mentionned Chiyoshoma, Ishiura and Tokushoryu are the obvious candidate for demotion and Takagenji, Toyonoshima and Kotoyuki the only ones worth promoting to take their place.

Correct me if I'm wrong but Tochinoshin's return to Ozeki means there'll be no need to have a M17E spot.

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23 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Sanyaku:

With Tochinoshin's repromotion confirmed, the number of open spots is mostly settled on 3, but Aoiyama could still in theory keep his spot with a win over Ryuden and a loss by Abi, as there are only 2 candidates outside sanyaku with a record warranting promotion: Tamawashi and Asanoyama.  Because of Abi's fairly strong schedule for an M4 he might beat out Aoiyama even with a loss, but I'd say that lack of sanyaku experience and numbers short of promotion would work against him.  Thus I predict Abi is Komusubi if he wins, and otherwise it's the winner of Aoiyama-Ryuden.  The other Komusubi will be Asanoyama, meaning I'm predicting the Sekiwake will be Tamawashi and Mitakeumi.  Even if they both lose, which means Asanoyama wins over Mitakeumi, while Asanoyama would be ahead of Tamawashi on numbers, Asanoyama's schedule was much weaker and he has no sanyaku, let alone Sekiwake, experience.  It was a truism a while ago that a KK Komusubi would claim a Sekiwake spot if it was open, but that was demolished a year or so ago, so it's possible that Asanoyama could leap Mitakeumi as well, but it seems unlikely for the same reasons. 

My speculation on East/West is that Mitakeumi takes East Sekiwake unless both results go against him.  Asanoyama will probably be East Komusubi, but it might go to Abi with a win and a loss by Asanoyama.

Of note is that Tamawashi faces Abi on Day 15, but Abi can't pass Tamawashi in numbers, so the fact they meet each other doesn't really affect things; by that I mean there's no interconnectedness of their results like there is for Aoiyama-Ryuden that makes considering the fact that they're meeting allow us to disregard certain possibilities (like both Aoiyama and Ryuden losing).  All of Abi's possibilities are distinct from all of Tamawashi's.

 

So most of the "maybes" were settled: Mitakeumi S1E, Tamawashi S1W, and Asanoyama and Abi Komusubi - but the order of the last two is somewhat up in the air as the numbers are equal.  I think they give the east side to Abi based on having a full joi schedule, even if Asanoyama faced a lot of sanyaku for someone ranked as low as he is.

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23 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Makuuchi <-> Juryo:

Out: Chiyoshoma, Ishiura, Tokushoryu

In: Toyonoshima, Takagenji, Kotoyuki

No one can get worse numbers than those already slated for demotion, and those three top Juryo performers should be safe even with losses as there's no one else particularly close to promotion.  Terutsuyoshi might still end up demotable, but the best candidate to replace him is Takanosho, who would still need to win, and he would still be two wins short of normal promotion while Terutsuyoshi would only be one match away from being safe.

(On a side note, I add most all Makuuchi rikishi names to my Firefox spell check dictionary.  I made an exception for Yago and Abi since they're so short.  Anyway, it was clearly time to add Takagenji, and I'm always amused by what suggestions pop up when I right click them to add them to the dictionary.  For Takagenji it was "Mutagenic".)

 

Nothing to really report, as was expected.  Terutsuyoshi should survive despite being demotable because there are no good candidates to replace him.  The best would be Azumaryu.

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By the numbers:

S1e will be Mitakeumi S1w will be Tamawashi

K1e will be Abi K1w will be Ryuden

M1e will be Asanoyama M1w will be Shodai

M2e will be Meisei From there it gets fuzzy.

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23 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Juryo <-> Makushita:

This one is a real doozy.  There are three rikishi definitely demoted: the kyujo Chiyonokuni and Hakuyozan, along with Churanoumi.  Three rikishi remain on the bubble: Seiro, Akiseyama, and Irodori.  That means there's up to 6 promotions possible, and none of the rikishi are in particularly good positions to not suffer demotion with losses, given Seiro as the last rikishi in the division and Irodori and Akiseyama being a rank below where they might be more likely to get a lucky nondemotion.

For candidates to go up, we have plenty.  We'll definitely see Takayoshitoshinofuji back in Juryo, but I don't think I'm qualified to speak firmly about the rest.  We have 4-3 Ms2e Kotokamatani, 5-2 Ms3e Ichiyamamoto, 5-2 Ms3w Kizakiumi, and 5-1 Ms4w Ryuko who faces Seiro all in prime position, and other than Kizakiumi clearly being behind Ichiyamamoto, and Ryuko further behind with a loss, I'm not sure about the order they would go up, especially after their defiance of convention recently with Tomokaze's promotion.  Also available for promotion is 4-3 Ms4w Hoshoryu, who definitely needs all the Juryo rikishi on the bubble to lose and is clearly behind the rest.  4-3 Ms5e Tamaki is definitely out.

Well this one worked out rather nicely.  We have 5 demotable Juryo rikishi with only Akiseyama of the bubble rikishi winning, and 5 very good candidates to take their spots.  No clue what order they'll be in Juryo, but there shouldn't be a question of who will be promoted.  Hoshoryu misses out but should get to a place where another 4-3 will almost certainly be good enough.  Other than Takanofuji, they will all be in Juryo for the first time.  The last time there were 4 Juryo debuts was Kyushu 2014 - Kagayaki, Hidenoumi, Kotoeko, and Dewahayate.

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2 minutes ago, Morningstar said:

By the numbers:

S1e will be Mitakeumi S1w will be Tamawashi

K1e will be Abi K1w will be Ryuden

M1e will be Asanoyama M1w will be Shodai

M2e will be Meisei From there it gets fuzzy.

How do you get Ryuden ahead of Asanoyama?  I admit that it's *possible* that they break from the numbers since Ryuden faced what was basically a full joi schedule and Asanoyama didn't, but you're supposedly going by the numbers.  I see Asanoyama headed to M(-1) and Ryuden to M0.

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5 minutes ago, Morningstar said:

By the numbers:

S1e will be Mitakeumi S1w will be Tamawashi

K1e will be Abi K1w will be Ryuden

M1e will be Asanoyama M1w will be Shodai

M2e will be Meisei From there it gets fuzzy.

Asanoyama not Ryuden will be komusubi. 

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1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

How do you get Ryuden ahead of Asanoyama?  I admit that it's *possible* that they break from the numbers since Ryuden faced what was basically a full joi schedule and Asanoyama didn't, but you're supposedly going by the numbers.  I see Asanoyama headed to M(-1) and Ryuden to M0.

Ryuden is 3 ranks higher and only had 2 less wins.

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1 minute ago, Morningstar said:

Ryuden is 3 ranks higher and only had 2 less wins.

Did you overlook that Asanoyama won a yusho as well? 

 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Morningstar said:

Ryuden is 3 ranks higher and only had 2 less wins.

That's not how it works (in general).  Most of the banzuke movement of sekitori can be inferred from subtracting the number of wins from their rank and also adding the number of losses.  This is not particularly contentious.

Edited by Gurowake
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2 minutes ago, ryafuji said:

Asanoyama not Ryuden will be komusubi. 

Only if they give bonus points for things other than wins + rank.

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Just now, Morningstar said:

Only if they give bonus points for things other than wins + rank.

You honestly think they will treat  a 12-3 yusho exactly the same as a regular 12-3?

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2 minutes ago, ryafuji said:

Did you overlook that Asanoyama won a yusho as well? 

 

That's not usually relevant.  I think it only comes into play when ordering Yokozuna (or theoretically Ozeki) who were in a playoff.

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Just now, ryafuji said:

You honestly think they will treat  a 12-3 yusho exactly the same as a regular 12-3?

For banzuke purposes, yes.

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Just now, Gurowake said:

For banzuke purposes, yes.

Then why not just use an algorithm - what’s the point of a committee.

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