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Natsu basho 2019 discussions [SPOILERS]

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1 hour ago, Bumpkin said:

Y1w Kakuryu (10-3) should face M8w Asanoyama (11-2) on Day 15. O1e Goeido (9-4) should face O1w Takayasu (8-5). That leaves S1w Tochinoshi (9-4) with a Maegashira on Day 15. Probably M5w Ryuden (8-5).

"should" in the world of Bumpkin. In my world, Kakuryu should face Goeido.

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2 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

"should" in the world of Bumpkin. In my world, Kakuryu should face Goeido.

Was it a ‘should’ for obligation, desirability or probability?

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2 hours ago, ScreechingOwl said:

I usually find Gurowake's comments well=reasoned and incisive, but couldn't disagree with him more on his take on yesterday's debacle more. While it's true that Tochinoshin hasn't looked like an Ozeki in his last three bouts - although he certainly did in his first eight wins - that's completely irrelevent to whether he will or should become an Ozeki based on this basho. If he wins 10 matches he gets automatically repromoted - how he looks has nothing to do with it. 

As for his "gut feeling" that Tochinoshin won't be able to sustain Ozekihood again for 9 basho (anyone want to bet that Goeido will make another 10? Takakeishi? Takayasu?) that's fine. But if it doesn't happen it actually does mean he's wrong. In fact, it's the very definition that he's wrong. It's fine to note that it's just one of a range of possibilities, but that's true of any prediction. And if someone makes a prediction that doesn't pan out, they were wrong.

I make probabilistic statements.  I acknowledge that the events I describe having a 51% probability of happening have a 49% probability of not happening.  If when I make my prediction I am justified in saying that the probability is over 50%, it does not mean that my prediction is "wrong" in my sense of what it means to be "wrong" if the minority option happens instead.  I probably should have put just the word "wrong" in quotes, not the entire "I was wrong".  This is the same sort of nonsense like saying all the political commentators were wrong about the last US election.  Sure, they were in some sense, but the ones with the higher probability of the current president winning were less wrong, and in some sense could be declared to be more right than the others even if they made the "wrong" prediction on a binary scale.  I picked a point in time where my gut feeling told me the 50% chance lies closest to; my asterisked point was probably a bit too, uh, out of line, I guess.  You're welcome to pick a lower or higher number, and then we'll be able to say who was more "right" when it happens.  As this basho shows, everything in sumo is fraught with uncertainty from many sources, and making firm predictions about the future is almost always going to backfire on you. 

I agree completely that Tochinoshin's repromotion to Ozeki will be determined by how many bouts he wins.  I don't care one bit about "should".  What I intended to argue is that it simply doesn't matter in the long run - he's not going to be able to sustain a Yokozuna run given what's happened the last few days. 

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2 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Was it a ‘should’ for obligation, desirability or probability?

A "should" for tradition. B-)

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2 hours ago, ScreechingOwl said:

As to the mono-ii and reversal of the gyoji's decision of the Tochinoshin-Asanoyama match, I think sumo would benefit by looking at the larger issue involved in the judging. For what it's worth, I see no evidence that Tochinoshin touched out - no heel print, no sand displaced or kicked up - so how a gyoji's decision is reversed by inconclusive evidence seems justifiably criticized. But that decision, good, bad, or ugly, is now history. The more useful question is how can we prevent getting in this situation again.

The "judges" of course, aren't judges in any accepted western or sports sense. Do you know any other sport where the judges are people with no training at judging, no qualifications as to eyesight (and it's pretty clear some of them don't see that well) or judgment, and no objectivity, but are instead judges based only on the fact that they formerly were players. Does anyone want Maradona refereeing a World Cup game? Or any other former great player at any sport being a judge or referee based on his being a great (or merely good) player? And yes, those are rhetorical questions, because the clear answer is "no".

Moreover, not only aren't the sumo judges qualified in any objective sense, they aren't even objective - they all have members of their heya wrestling. By definition you couldn't be in a more biased position.

So the whole system is out of whack - the judges are middle aged men who have no business judging the bouts and, as we've seen time and time again, aren't especially good at it. You don't see former rikishi as gyoji. Let's have sumo move into the 21st century and actually use trained, qualified judges. 

I'm not holding my breath on this one, of course. Maybe we'll be lucky and it will be another 50 years before they screw up another key match. But I'd bet under the current system they'll make another mistake in makuuchi next basho. And the ones after that, until the system itself is improved.

There are a few things in favor of the current system that helps smooth out these issues.  First, there are five of them.  I don't know what basis they operate on, but they seem to want to come to a consensus on what happened and not have someone feel as though they weren't heard out.  That's why the mono-ii took so long from what I understand - there wasn't any clear consensus to be reached.  The point is that you're not going to get someone from a rikishi's stable that's going to be able to unilaterally decide on their fate.  If that kind of thing happens, they should bear great shame, but the system seems designed to work around it, especially given that they try to get all the ichimon one spot on each shift, although with the numbers that isn't always possible.

Second, these guys have been in the sport their entire life.  This *is* their job.  Perhaps the qualification of being qualified for a kabu could be dropped and anyone who had ten years experience as a rikishi could apply for the job, but I don't think it's out of line to have former rikishi do it; how many people do you think have officiated a basketball or soccer match that were not at least very experienced in playing it?  On the same topic, I don't think perfect eyesight is all that important in general, and it's just this situation that brings to our attention the limits of technology and recording capability.  (Side Note: It's even gotten me to seriously wonder about what a rigorous definition would be of two objects touching, considering that what we think of things as touching is just the interaction of the outermost atoms' electron clouds; given that theoretically every charged particle exerts a force on every other one, what level of interaction does there need to be to say that things "touched"?).  Most of the time they'll have a visual marker to look at after the fact, it's just this one the way the match went that visual marker got erased.  Most of the time there will be clear video evidence.  Just not this time.  It's one huge aberration, much like with the nuclear plant after the tsunami and earthquake.  Murphy's law.  You can't cover every possibility. 

There's no need to make changes.  Maybe something will change, but I doubt it.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I make probabilistic statements.  I acknowledge that the events I describe having a 51% probability of happening have a 49% probability of not happening.  If when I make my prediction I am justified in saying that the probability is over 50%, it does not mean that my prediction is "wrong" in my sense of what it means to be "wrong" if the minority option happens instead.  I probably should have put just the word "wrong" in quotes, not the entire "I was wrong".  This is the same sort of nonsense like saying all the political commentators were wrong about the last US election.  Sure, they were in some sense, but the ones with the higher probability of the current president winning were less wrong, and in some sense could be declared to be more right than the others even if they made the "wrong" prediction on a binary scale.  I picked a point in time where my gut feeling told me the 50% chance lies closest to; my asterisked point was probably a bit too, uh, out of line, I guess.  You're welcome to pick a lower or higher number, and then we'll be able to say who was more "right" when it happens.  As this basho shows, everything in sumo is fraught with uncertainty from many sources, and making firm predictions about the future is almost always going to backfire on you. 

I agree completely that Tochinoshin's repromotion to Ozeki will be determined by how many bouts he wins.  I don't care one bit about "should".  What I intended to argue is that it simply doesn't matter in the long run - he's not going to be able to sustain a Yokozuna run given what's happened the last few days. 

I’m not sure I understand this stuff about him not being able to sustain a Yokozuna run. First of all, I’m not even quite sure that’s true, as when he’s in form he’s one of the best wrestlers in sumo right now. Nobody really knows how his form will be over the next year. That aside, even if he doesn’t push on, does that matter? We went years without an Ozeki coming close to Yokozuna promotion. Nobody questioned whether Kotoshogiku or Terunofuji or Kisenosato* we’re worthy of being Ozeki just because they’d found their ceiling.

*Kise came closest with his string of jun-yusho but was only on an official Yokozuna run in 2017. Kotoshikogiku’s Yokozuna run wasn’t much of an event, and only ‘official’ because when an Ozeki has won a yusho technically they are in line for promotion. Goeido likewise. Neither ever really showed Yokozuna form.

Edited by Eikokurai

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21 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

"should" in the world of Bumpkin. In my world, Kakuryu should face Goeido.

In my world, the top 16 rikishi that enter a tournament face a round robin schedule, giving fusensho to everyone not yet faced if they withdraw midway through.  Only those 16 rikishi can win the top division Yusho, although this would require a redesign of the division system to make sense.

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27 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

"should" in the world of Bumpkin. In my world, Kakuryu should face Goeido.

Kakuryu v Asanoyama would be for the yusho or, at least, a yusho playoff. (Unless, Asanoyama beats Goeido and Kakuryu loses to Tochinoshin).

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4 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

I’m not sure I understand this stuff about him not being able to sustain a Yokozuna run. First of all, I’m not even quite sure that’s true, as when he’s in form he’s one of the best wrestlers in sumo right now. Nobody really knows how his form will be over the next year. That aside, even if he doesn’t push on, does that matter? We went years without an Ozeki coming close to Yokozuna promotion. Nobody questioned whether Kotoshogiku or Terunofuji or Kisenosato* we’re worthy of being Ozeki just because they’d found their ceiling.

*Kise came closest with his string of jun-yusho but was only on an official Yokozuna run in 2017. Kotoshikogiku’s Yokozuna run wasn’t much of an event, and only ‘official’ because when an Ozeki has won a yusho technically they are in line for promotion. Goeido likewise. Neither ever really showed Yokozuna form.

Did you read "I don't care one bit about should"?  I don't care if they are "worthy" or not. Not my concern at all.  Don't try to read that into what I'm saying.

I just wish to see an end all the drama over this one call supposedly sealing Tochinoshin's fate and he had his rank stolen and it's a complete calamity and the world's ending and all that crap.  It simply is not likely to matter.  Stop driving yourselves mad over it. 

If he can come back in stronger and more consistent form, good for him.  I just don't see it.

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12 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Did you read "I don't care one bit about should"?  I don't care if they are "worthy" or not. Not my concern at all.  Don't try to read that into what I'm saying.

I just wish to see an end all the drama over this one call supposedly sealing Tochinoshin's fate and he had his rank stolen and it's a complete calamity and the world's ending and all that crap.  It simply is not likely to matter.  Stop driving yourselves mad over it. 

If he can come back in stronger and more consistent form, good for him.  I just don't see it.

Mate, it only happened yesterday. If people are still banging on about it ten years from now, sure, but it’s still fresh. We haven’t even got to the next day’s bouts yet, so obviously people are still going to be discussing yesterday’s.

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1 minute ago, Eikokurai said:

Mate, it only happened yesterday. If people are still banging on about it ten years from now, sure, but it’s still fresh. We haven’t even got to the next day’s bouts yet, so obviously people are still going to be discussing yesterday’s.

 When people are calling for the judge involved to resign, I think it's a bit more than that.  That's a new one I don't recall having heard before.

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3 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

 When people are calling for the judge involved to resign, I think it's a bit more than that.  That's a new one I don't recall having heard before.

Onomatsu has been giving reasons to resign for quite some time. If you’ve been following the forum, you’ll have seen people mocking him plenty. Yesterday was merely the latest in a long string of displays of incompetence.

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During a monoii, sometimes I see the shimpan bringing a tablet onto the dohyo to look at video replays. Was there any yesterday?

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Posted (edited)

Yeah, I'm in Chiba pref and I think this was the strongest quake I experienced when in Japan - sumo is back on

Edited by Akinomaki
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I was very happy for Tochinoshin had at first won that match, then the monoii. Now this goes without saying that this was a very controversial call. Given that several angles tell different stories depending on the angle, the judges had to make a decision that was obviously not going to rest well with a majority of sumo fans and more than likely a lot of people in the JSA. Was it the right decision? More than likely not. Can we say for sure? That is something we will never truly know.

In this case I will have to play devil's advocate, being a high school wrestling official. I have to know the rules, how to call them, when to call them, and better well remember them if I am called to the table by a coach. Needless to say I have been involved in what would be deemed controversial finishes. I speak this from several different angles:

- As a spectator, I watched as my brother received no points for a move that clearly would have been a score if any other official but this particular one was officiating the match. It cost my brother the win and his ticket to the state tournament

- As a coach, I saw one of our wrestler's get scored on when they were clearly out of bounds and no points should have been scored, this cost our wrestler the state title

- As an official, two cases. The first being at a post season divisional tournament, I myself improperly started a match, and the points scored had to be negated, I ended up having to get help from the head referee to fix this issue. In the closing seconds of the match, I made a call that was obviously questioned because I judged that the wrestler on bottom had escaped, thereby warranting his one point reward. When challenged by the opposing coach, I had a conference with the official who was assisting me, and he said that the decision I made was correct. I stood by that decision while probably being blamed for costing a kid his chance to move to the next level tournament the following week. My second case also happened to be at a post season tournament, where I called a pin right at the same time that the person keeping time signaled the end of the period. In my mind, the pin had come before the end of the period. The coach asked me to confer with the timekeeper, and they told me that I called the pin before time was up. The controversy was that time was apparently expired on the clock, but the timekeeper missed. Both coaches didn't, but the winning coach obviously wasn't going to say anything.

Did the judges have a tough decision to make? I definitely think so. But again, like Gurowake has been talking about we need to consider a lot of other circumstances before investing all emotion into this one instance of an obvious error. Where has Tochinoshin been the last three days? From 9-1 to 9-4, he has dropped three straight to hiramaku wrestlers, the last two in the very same fashion. If he's not going to wrestle like an ozeki in the closing act of the basho, perhaps he just does not have what it takes to make it as one who should be at the second highest. Life is unfair, but if you are going to let this moment define who you are, then perhaps the sport is not for you. He still has two days left, two chances left to clinch the win. I say let it play out and see how he bounces back from this.

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One more win and Shimanoumi looks good for a prize on debut.

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From a scientific stance, there is no way of touching the sand without leaving a mark. We are talking about grains weighing micrograms. Please bear in mind this is a special sand exactly for that purpose.

Some people say there is a "shadow" after the heel coming up. The only shadow i saw on the pictures posted here, was a few inches to the left of where the heel supposedly touched down.

However, the decision stands and the JSA, especially Onomatsu look really stupid with this outcome. We can only hope a learning process kicks in changes are made.

What botheres me more is there being no torikumi for tomorrow at this point. It looks like they are trying make sure the last bouts tomorrow will really be the yusho deciding ones for their special guest. And if it's just not to confuse him.

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Did anyone see Tochinoshin's bout yesterday? Quite close I thought.

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Just now, lackmaker said:

Did anyone see Tochinoshin's bout yesterday? Quite close I thought.

Good morning, please read the last couple pages of this thread :-D

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Posted (edited)

Odds on Tamawashi sneaking up on a yusho playoff spot and then taking his second championship of the year? :)

Half an hour later ...

Cancel that. Only Kakuryu can force a playoff now. And that could change in 5m. Bloody hell. My day five prediction is coming true and I’m going to claim it was legit.

Five minutes later ...

Yes! Tochinoshin! Breathe a sigh of relief everyone. It’s a happy ending for all.

Edited by Eikokurai

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Tochinoshin had one stolen yesterday and he stole one back today. Cant blame him at all. Rather fitting henka.

 

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I wished the kakuryu bout was more disputed... but.. hell.. congrats to the yusho winner!

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1 minute ago, Fukuyamada said:

Asanoyama yusho!

Asanoyama* yusho.

Shame to have a tainted maiden yusho.

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That was priceless! Like all of Tochi´s anger transformed to that henka. I just love it! Well deserved :) 

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