robnplunder

Natsu basho 2019 discussions [SPOILERS]

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, robnplunder said:

I have to wonder if Ikioi went kyujo the last basho, would he struggle in juryo this much.   He is 3-8 and the 3 wins weren't that impressive either.

Ikioi is clearly recovering from an injury and is still unable to fulfil his potential.  A kyujo or two may well have helped him on the road to recovery, but the end result may have been more or less the same.  

Spoiler

I have to disagree about his win yesterday (day 11).  His kotenage throw was impressive, at least to me, especially given his recent struggles.  But today, not so much.  And after the bout he acted as though he is still affected by his injury.

 

Edited by Amamaniac

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Ichinojo coming back after sitting out four days looked pretty good in terms of his sumo.  He managed to trap Aoiyama's arms to prevent an oshi battle (in which he is vulnerable), and then used weight and attrition to dispatch an otherwise strong opponent.  Is the "on-his-game" version of Ichinojo back?  We will have to see how he does in the next three days.  Too bad he didn't show up for the first half of the tournament, and more or less spoiled any chance of an Ozeki run.

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Posted (edited)

Tochinoshin seems to be suffering from the same psychological ailment as Enho.  Both Top Division wrestlers are on the cusp of glory (relatively speaking), and just can't seem to get the job done.  Is it all the press and fan attention that is distracting them, or is it the prematurely taste of success that has broken their focus?

Edited by Amamaniac

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Of the rikishi at their career best rank:

  1. Meisei is KK and will join joi in the next basho.
  2. Tomokaze is at 5-7 and I predict he will go MK, stopping his own KK streak.
  3. Shimanoumi is on verge of KK at 7-5.   He will go KK as soon as tomorrow against Kotoeko who is in good form.
  4. Enho is at 7-5 and faces tough Meisei tomorrow.   He needs help of favorable torikumi for days 14 & 15.   
  5. Daishoho is at 7-5 and I think he will also go KK.

Of the 5 above, I like Meisei's chance at becoming a sanyuku, followed by Shimanoumi.   

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4 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Tochinoshin seems to be suffering from the same psychological ailment as Enho.  Both Top Division wrestlers are on the cusp of glory (relatively speaking), and just can't seem to get the job done.  Is it all the press and fan attention that is distracting them, or is it the prematurely taste success that has broken their focus?

In Enho's case, he is facing higher ranked & better rikishi than he has faced until his 7th win.  So, IMHO, his 3 consecutive losses were understandable.  Enho will likely  lose again tomorrow as he faces an opponent who can make a quick work of him.   Psychological ailment may come to him on 14th & 15th day.  I am "willing" him to KK :-).

 

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3 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Tamawashi fulfills his obligations by helping to reign in Asanoyama. 

Great struggle between Hokutofuji and Endo. That's what you want to see when they put two guys with 7 losses up against each other. Endo in control, but solid defensive effort from his aite.

Asanoyama looked fine to me. Tamawashi is a tough guy to beat the first time you face him. Add in the pressure of the yusho and Tamawashi on a win streak and you have little chance. I would not be surprised if he beats Tochinoshin Day 13 though. Tochi is clearly running out of gas. Meisei's charge was not particularly good last night. Tochi was just particularly bad.  Right now I would not pick Tochi to get his 10th win but luckily for him he still has Takayasu to face and Takayasu looks really bad all of the sudden. Takayasu has Kakuryu Day 13 and Goeido on Day 14. If Takayasu loses both of those Tochi may have another crucial Day 15 match with him trying for his 10th win and return to Ozeki and a 7-7 Takaysu trying to avoid kadoban. 

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M7 Meisei, at his highest rank ever fought his first sanyaku match up today and upset yusho contender Tochinoshin, denying him a tenth win needed to get his ozeki rank back. Meisei obtained his KK in the process and will climb even higher up the ranks next basho.

Meisei had a quick first step at the tachi ai, got his favourite left grip and pushed the strong georgian out while falling forward. Yorikiri. "I could attack forward.  My points of emphasis were : fight with all my heart, don't let my feelings get the best of me, don't lose at the tachi ai. I could do good sumo" analyzed Meisei.

"Tochinoshin let me train with him a lot during the spring tour and gave me  many advice. I'd like to face him a lot more" he continued.

If Meisei get a couple more wins during the three remaining days he may be considered to receive his first special prize "I want to do my best one day at a time. I want to heat up and heat up the crowd. Every day is a lesson. I'll go all out with everything I've got" concluded the 23 years old.

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/201905230000924.html

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44 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Asanoyama looked fine to me. Tamawashi is a tough guy to beat the first time you face him. 

It wasn't their second match? Last November if memory serves. Same result.

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1 minute ago, Otokonoyama said:

It wasn't their second match? Last November if memory serves. Same result.

You're right. Don't know why I thought it was the first.

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1 minute ago, Otokonoyama said:

It wasn't their second match? Last November if memory serves. Same result.

Asanoyama has 0 -2 to Tamawashi

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2 hours ago, Rainoyama said:

If Meisei get a couple more wins during the three remaining days he may be considered to receive his first special prize

... and possibly a sanyuku spot in the next basho.   He needs a little help from on others to get one though.

In the last 3 bashos, he had 6, 7, 6 (so far) win streaks.   That's streaky in my book.   He also has the same 8-4 record at day 12 of the last basho.  He finished 9-6 in that basho.  Let's see if he can do better this time around.   He gets Enho today and I think Meisei has a definitive edge to notch his 9th win.

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56 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

... and possibly a sanyuku spot in the next basho.   He needs a little help from on others to get one though.

In the last 3 bashos, he had 6, 7, 6 (so far) win streaks.   That's streaky in my book.   He also has the same 8-4 record at day 12 of the last basho.  He finished 9-6 in that basho.  Let's see if he can do better this time around.   He gets Enho today and I think Meisei has a definitive edge to notch his 9th win.

That will be interesting. I think  it will take 10 wins for him to get there. He already has 8 but he does have a tendency to let up on the gas a bit once he KKs. That's one of the reasons I think Enho may win tonight.  Normally I don't think he'd have a shot.

I expect 3 sanyaku slots to open up. Ichinojo  is going down and I expect Aoiyama will join him. I expect Tochinoshin to get his 10. Barely. 

I expect Mitakeumi to KK and take a Sekiwake slot and I think it likely Tamawashi claims the other unless Asanoyama finishes very well. Barring Asanoyama losing the rest of the way out he will get a slot leaving only 1 open. If Abi or Ryuden gets to 9 I think they get the other, even if Meisei gets to 10. 

Maybe a sansho will get Mesei up for tonight's match though.

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3 minutes ago, Rocks said:

... expect Mitakeumi to KK and take a Sekiwake slot and I think it likely Tamawashi claims the other unless Asanoyama finishes very well. Barring Asanoyama losing the rest of the way out he will get a slot leaving only 1 open. If Abi or Ryuden gets to 9 I think they get the other, even if Meisei gets to 10. 

Yeah, the planets has to align for Meisei to grab a sanyuku spot.    Even Kotoshogiku going 8-7 can reduce that open sanyuku spot by one, making it impossible for Meisei.   A sansho prize may be the best he can get besides a double digit win record.  In any case, he will be sorely tested in the next basho at possible M1/M2 rank.    I look forward to his showing in July.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

Tochinoshin seems to be suffering from the same psychological ailment as Enho.  Both Top Division wrestlers are on the cusp of glory (relatively speaking), and just can't seem to get the job done.  Is it all the press and fan attention that is distracting them, or is it the prematurely taste of success that has broken their focus?

Intuitively, I see things the same way. Enho and Tochinoshin were rocking and rolling right up to the threshold of their respective goals, then seemed to weaken in astonishment.

However, I think sports fans in general put too much stock in the ordering of probabilistic outcomes. Tochinoshin is 9-3 after day 12, and the consecutive losses make him look shaky, but what if he lost on, say, days 3, 4, and 8? He'd have the same record and be in the same situation looking for his 10th win, but we'd probably come up with a narrative that said he had a hard start at 2-2, but then showed mental strength and determination in steaming his way to 9-3, and surely with a 10th win to come.

Unless the change in performance is due to injury, losing on days 11 and 12 isn't any different from losing on whatever other days. 9-3 is a good spot to be in for him.

Edited by neonbelly

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11 minutes ago, neonbelly said:

Unless the change in performance is due to injury, losing on days 11 and 12 isn't any different from losing on whatever other days.

A winning streak is hard to maintain.  A losing streak is hard to bust.

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15 minutes ago, neonbelly said:
9 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

Tochinoshin seems to be suffering from the same psychological ailment as Enho.  Both Top Division wrestlers are on the cusp of glory (relatively speaking), and just can't seem to get the job done.  Is it all the press and fan attention that is distracting them, or is it the prematurely taste of success that has broken their focus?

Intuitively, I see things the same way. Enho and Tochinoshin were rocking and rolling right up to the threshold of their respective goals, then seemed to weaken in astonishment.

However, I think sports fans in general put too much stock in the ordering of probabilistic outcomes. Tochinoshin is 9-3 after day 12, and the consecutive losses make him look shaky, but what if he lost on, say, days 3, 4, and 8? He'd have the same record and be in the same situation looking for his 10th win, but we'd probably come up with a narrative that said he had a hard start at 2-2, but then showed mental strength and determination in steaming his way to 9-3, and surely with a 10th win to come.

Unless the change in performance is due to injury, losing on days 11 and 12 isn't any different from losing on whatever other days. 9-3 is a good spot to be in for him.

In terms of numbers, you are right that when the losses occur doesn't make any difference.  However, I would argue that there is a crucial difference in the timing of those losses.  To use your well-chosen terminology, I am suggesting that Tochinoshin "showed (amazing) mental strength and determination in streaming to" 9-1.  And that strength and determination may have been shaken by his straight losses in the last two days.

Facing Asanoyama has the potential of getting him back on track or sending him into a major crash.  Either way, the narrative is fascinating to watch.

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With his loss against Tamawashi today, Hiramaku Asanoyama was joined in the lead by Yokozuna Kakuryu (both are 10-2)

The kyokai second highest executive Oguruma oyakata (former ozeki Kotokaze) shared his view on the exciting title race.

"The situation is changing every day. We cannot even say the race is limited to those two. Kakuryu and Asanoyama may even face each other (suggesting that Kakuryu's bout with Goeido or even but less likely Tochinoshin might be scrapped !). Making the torikumi is tough for the shipan division. It's almost to the point where they'd like to see the results after day 14 to decide."

https://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2019/05/23/kiji/20190523s00005000368000c.html

 

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Y1w Kakuryu (10-2) has O1w Takayasu (7-5) on Day 13. He could face O1e Goeido (8-4) on Day 14. Then on Day 15, Kakuryu could face the winner of M8w Asanoyama (10-2) v S1w Tochinoshin (9-3). This way, Kakuryu would face both Ozekis and the rikishi with the best chance of winning the yusho. 

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Six consecutive KK for Goeido now, extending his personal best as an Ozeki.

Isn't it a little bit sad, that getting six consecutive kashikoshi is a mentionable feat for an ozeki?

Edited by Tsubame
typo
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11 minutes ago, Tsubame said:

Isn't it a little bit sad, that getting six consecutive kashikoshi is mentionable feat for an ozeki?

Not when that ozeki is in the last year or two of his career.

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35 minutes ago, Tsubame said:

Isn't it a little bit sad, that getting six consecutive kashikoshi is a mentionable feat for an ozeki?

Even when Goeido is doing well, some still need to twist it so they can crap on him.

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Posted (edited)

Now that Goeido has his KK, there's no point in putting him up against Kakuryu other than to maintain the tradition of having the highest ranked rikishi face one of the next highest ranked rikishi as the last match of the tournament.  His last two matches would be better spent against Tochinoshin, who still needs a significant, and Asanoyama, who is tied for the lead with him.  I almost suspect that Kakuryu vs. Asanoyama will be the last match of the tournament because of the foreign dignitary having a better chance to understand things if the winner of the last match wins the tournament.

Edited by Gurowake
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13 hours ago, Ryoshishokunin said:

Goeido v. Shodai seems like they missed an opportunity to get another sanyaku matchup in Ichinojo v. Goeido.  Apparently the schedulers don't think much of Ichinojo's status...

Ichinojo is out of sanyaku contention, so there's no reason to match him up with other sanyaku he hasn't faced.  Shodai may be a stretch for sanyaku, but he at least has a chance and is the next rikishi down for Goeido to face as Yoshikaze is MK (and was when the schedule was made).

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Ichinojo is out of sanyaku contention, so there's no reason to match him up with other sanyaku he hasn't faced.  Shodai may be a stretch for sanyaku, but he at least has a chance and is the next rikishi down for Goeido to face as Yoshikaze is MK (and was when the schedule was made).

As an addendum, Ichinojo faced Aoiyama more as a test for Aoiyama, who is still in sanyaku contention, though just barely now with the loss.  While Goeido didn't have his KK yet when the schedule was made, it was fairly assured and there simply wasn't much point of putting him against Ichinojo instead of someone who was still in contention.

Edited by Gurowake

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