Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2019

Recommended Posts

Any chance they go with Ichinojo, Aoiyama, and Tochinoshin as Sekiwake, with Giku and Mitakeumi as Komusubi?

 

GTB is going to be fun next basho, as will Juryo game for that matter. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We shall find out in 6 weeks :-D

He's going to be my M17 pick for gtb anyway ;-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My guess for the order of who is going down is:

Yutakayama

Toyonoshima

Chiyonokuni

Chiyoshoma

Ikioi

I think Ikioi will not be demoted, due to lack of candidates for promotion and because they are going to give him some extra credit for not taking the tournament off. The question then, is it going to be 2, 3, or 4 exchanges. I believe it will be 3.

The lower half of Makuuchi is going to be super crowded, while the middle part is going to have a hard time being filled. There is going to be a ton of Banzuke luck going around in May.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Morningstar said:

My guess for the order of who is going down is:

Yutakayama

Toyonoshima

Chiyonokuni

Chiyoshoma

Ikioi

I think Ikioi will not be demoted, due to lack of candidates for promotion and because they are going to give him some extra credit for not taking the tournament off. The question then, is it going to be 2, 3, or 4 exchanges. I believe it will be 3.

The lower half of Makuuchi is going to be super crowded, while the middle part is going to have a hard time being filled. There is going to be a ton of Banzuke luck going around in May.

I think all five are going down and everyone J4 for or better with a KK is coming up.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Any chance they go with Ichinojo, Aoiyama, and Tochinoshin as Sekiwake, with Giku and Mitakeumi as Komusubi?

 

GTB is going to be fun next basho, as will Juryo game for that matter. 

 

 

None, I think.

Absolutely no need for a third Sekiwake with Tochinoshin going down and Takakeisho going up

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Rocks said:

Any chance they go with Ichinojo, Aoiyama, and Tochinoshin as Sekiwake, with Giku and Mitakeumi as Komusubi?

 

GTB is going to be fun next basho, as will Juryo game for that matter. 

 

 

I may be wrong, but I think they create an extra Sekiwake or Komusubi spot only if a rikishi really deserves it (by the numbers), or if there is absolutly nobody to take his sanyaku spot . Here, it seems to me that neither of the two conditions is met for Mitakeumi to stay.

Edited by serge_gva

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I don"t know if Takakeisho is officially promoted yet but I hope he gets it this time, despite what I said in another thread. But I still have reservations about his sumo, so my statement is accompanied by an asterix. His weaknesses are so glaring, such as his inability to defend against anyone who has a grip on his mawashi, that it remains to be seen whether he will be an ozeki for the long-run.  If he gets the promotion, it would be quite an interesting turn of events since it was always assumed that the King Tadpole Mitakeumi would attain it first.

Edited by wys

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, wys said:

I don"t know if Takakeisho is officially promoted yet but I hope he gets it this time, despite what I said in another thread. But I still have reservations about his sumo, so my statement is accompanied by an asterix. His weaknesses are so glaring, such as his inability to defend against anyone who has a grip on his mawashi, that it remains to be seen whether he will be an ozeki for the long-run.  If he gets the promotion, it would be quite an interesting turn of events since it was always assumed that the King Tadpole Mitakeumi would attain it first.

All he needs to do to stay Ozeki is get 8-7 every other tournament. I think that’s well within his abilities, as his record so far attests to. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, wys said:

I don"t know if Takakeisho is officially promoted yet but I hope he gets it this time, despite what I said in another thread. But I still have reservations about his sumo, so my statement is accompanied by an asterix. His weaknesses are so glaring, such as his inability to defend against anyone who has a grip on his mawashi, that it remains to be seen whether he will be an ozeki for the long-run.  If he gets the promotion, it would be quite an interesting turn of events since it was always assumed that the King Tadpole Mitakeumi would attain it first.

I think some folks here are underestimating/underrating Takakeisho.  So did I.  But even with having one dimensional style, if it is highly effective enough to be an Ozeki, so be it.

IMO, he should have been an Ozeki in this basho.   The powers to be made him wait and Taka proved them wrong.   And those who keep having doubts based on Taka's past record, he has been better than 3 ozekis in the last 5 bashos, facing the similar competition.   In fact, he has the most wins, more than any Ozeki in that span.

Edited by robnplunder
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, robnplunder said:

I think some folks here are underestimating/underrating Takakeisho.  So did I.  But even with having one dimensional style, if it is highly effective enough to be an Ozeki, so be it.

IMO, he should have been an Ozeki in this basho.   The powers to be made him wait and Taka proved them wrong.   And those who keep having doubts based on Taka's past record, he has been better than 3 ozekis in the last 5 bashos, facing the similar competition.   In fact, he has the most wins, more than any Ozeki in that span.

Some of the things uglier than Takakeisho's sumo are "fans" praising and "cheering" for different rikishi every basho, the constant during-basho jinx attempts and the "good bout" comment that translates "f*ck I wanted him to lose".  
There should be a special topic called something like "Who we will cheer for during the Haru basho 2022". Top contenders - Naya, Hoshoryu and Roga. Who wins the vote? I'tell you, but you dont tell anyone! The one that had better score during the Kyushu basho couple of months before that. But no worries, there will be a new vote for the Hatsu 2022 with different results, as the scores will be different! The King is dead, long live the King sumo version.

As for "the power to be", they have every right to demand one more consistency check, which was pretty much what they explained. What Takakeisho proved or not it is too early to say.  A good proof is Tochinoshin, who you "cheered" for couple of months last year, somehow ignoring the fact that the later has been doing sumo for over a decade. Few here named him the next Yokozuna. One even said, if he was healthy he would "lift Kakuryu like the good old times" (!).
In sumo the numbers speak. There is no bullcrap talks. That is how the banzuke works - one wins, he gets promoted. No matter if me, you or anyone else likes the rikishi or not.

 

 

  • Confused 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Chankomafuji said:

Some of the things uglier than Takakeisho's sumo are "fans" praising and "cheering" for different rikishi every basho, the constant during-basho jinx attempts and the "good bout" comment that translates "f*ck I wanted him to lose".  
There should be a special topic called something like "Who we will cheer for during the Haru basho 2022". Top contenders - Naya, Hoshoryu and Roga. Who wins the vote? I'tell you, but you dont tell anyone! The one that had better score during the Kyushu basho couple of months before that. But no worries, there will be a new vote for the Hatsu 2022 with different results, as the scores will be different! The King is dead, long live the King sumo version.

As for "the power to be", they have every right to demand one more consistency check, which was pretty much what they explained. What Takakeisho proved or not it is too early to say.  A good proof is Tochinoshin, who you "cheered" for couple of months last year, somehow ignoring the fact that the later has been doing sumo for over a decade. Few here named him the next Yokozuna. One even said, if he was healthy he would "lift Kakuryu like the good old times" (!).
In sumo the numbers speak. There is no bullcrap talks. That is how the banzuke works - one wins, he gets promoted. No matter if me, you or anyone else likes the rikishi or not.

 

 

How many beers did you have before you wrote this babble?  

  • Haha 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, robnplunder said:

I think some folks here are underestimating/underrating Takakeisho.  So did I.  But even with having one dimensional style, if it is highly effective enough to be an Ozeki, so be it.

IMO, he should have been an Ozeki in this basho.   The powers to be made him wait and Taka proved them wrong.   And those who keep having doubts based on Taka's past record, he has been better than 3 ozekis in the last 5 bashos, facing the similar competition.   In fact, he has the most wins, more than any Ozeki in that span.

I agree. There are plenty of past examples of one dimensional Ozeki who were successful. And, I feel he has it in him as well. Hopefully he stays healthy.

If he wants to move up, he will need to add more weapons to his arsenal. Yokazona need to be multi dimensional and capable of winning even when their main weapons have been neutralized. Time will tell if he can make that jump. I wish him the best of luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Morningstar said:

I agree. There are plenty of past examples of one dimensional Ozeki who were successful. And, I feel he has it in him as well. Hopefully he stays healthy.

If he wants to move up, he will need to add more weapons to his arsenal. Yokazona need to be multi dimensional and capable of winning even when their main weapons have been neutralized. Time will tell if he can make that jump. I wish him the best of luck.

Do you think he is better than Chyutaikai?   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Morningstar said:

I agree. There are plenty of past examples of one dimensional Ozeki who were successful.

Agree. I remember many on this forum (including myself i think) calling Kotoshogiku an one trick pony. Without injury this OTP probably would still be Ozeki.

The boy is 22, give him some time, guys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you remember those years when Goeido and Tochiozan were regarded as equal prospects and eternal rivals for life? Me neither.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

Do you think he is better than Chyutaikai?   

Not currently, but he has plenty of room to grow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Morningstar said:

If he wants to move up, he will need to add more weapons to his arsenal. Yokazona need to be multi dimensional and capable of winning even when their main weapons have been neutralized. Time will tell if he can make that jump. I wish him the best of luck.

I agree.    Currently, he's losing just about every yotsu sumo.   If he can just go .500 on those instances, who knows how far he will go.

(I am binge watching Lucifer.   Entertaining show.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Day 15 (results, text-only results)

15-0 Ye Hakuho

14-1 M4w Ichinojo

13-2 ---


    15-0  Hakuho        Y    Kakuryu      10-5
    10-5  Takayasu      O1   Goeido       12-3
(x)  7-8  Tochinoshin   O2
(o) 10-5  Takakeisho    S

Yet another trademark slapdown victory, this time over hard-luck makekoshi Daieisho, put Ichinojo at 14-1 and served to keep the yusho race alive until the final bout of the tournament. Kakuryu forced Hakuho to give all he had, but ultimately it was the dai-yokozuna who prevailed in this epic match, clinching his 42nd yusho with his 15th zensho record to close out the Heisei era. However, it appears Hakuho suffered a significant right arm injury in the course of it, putting his participation in at least the next basho in serious doubt - should he be forced to miss Natsu basho, it would already be the third time in the last couple of years that he's unable to defend a championship.

Ichinojo for his part finishes the basho as the sole runner-up, his second time with jun-yusho honours - did anyone expect it would take four and a half years after the first one in his makuuchi debut? - and was additionally awarded the shukun-sho for his outstanding performance this basho. (It has been a while since a sansho-eligible rikishi scored 14 wins and only received one prize for it...)

The closing stages of the basho also saw the much-anticipated battle for the ozeki rank between incumbent Tochinoshin and hopeful Takakeisho. The young upstart staked his claim with an emphatic victory to finish Haru basho with a 10-5 record, and it has since been reported that his promotion is a done deal. A gino-sho award was also sent his way, his overall 7th (and one hopes his last) sansho. Kadoban Tochinoshin ends with a heart-breaking 7-8 record, in fact the first ozeki ever to be demoted with that score under modern regulations. I doubt he'll ever get back to the spectacular performance highs of a year ago, but perhaps he can get past his physical issues sufficiently by May to avail himself of the 10-win repromotion opportunity. I for one would like to see him get a little more ozeki time.

And finally Goeido and Takayasu battled things out for the minor honour of getting ranked as the #1 ozeki on the next banzuke. The match was all Takayasu...until he found himself flung down almost out of nowhere. So, it'll be Goeido leading the revised ozeki trio for Natsu basho - the much-maligned veteran has quietly put together a pretty decent run of results of late, with 5 straight KK and an average of over 10 wins per tournament. (Actually, the same is true of Takayasu as well.)

Both komusubi Mitakeumi and Hokutofuji ended the basho on a high note with defeats of Nishikigi and Onosho respectively, but their MKs were of course already settled a few days ago. Erstwhile defending champion Tamawashi, on the other hand, lost for the seventh time since the middle Sunday to finish with a disappointing 5-10 record.

More sansho activity was on the torikumi in the maegashira ranks, where no less than three rikishi were up for kanto-sho honours conditional on winning their final match. Two of them, Aoiyama and top division newcomer Tomokaze, found themselves head-to-head with one award on the line, and veteran Aoiyama left no doubt about who deserved to win it. His 12-3 record marks Aoiyama's second-best makuuchi performance ever, behind only his 13-2 back in Nagoya 2017 when he was in yusho contention. Former ozeki Kotoshogiku, however, sadly missed out on sharing the kanto-sho with 12 wins of his own, ending the basho at 11-4 after his senshuraku loss to Ryuden.

                        S    Tamawashi     5-10 (x)
(?)  7-8  Mitakeumi     K    Hokutofuji    7-8  (x)

                        M1
(x)  7-8  Daieisho      M2
                        M3
                        M4   Ichinojo     14-1  (o)
     8-7  Chiyotairyu   M5
     8-7  Okinoumi      M6
(o) 12-3  Aoiyama       M7
                        M8   Kotoshogiku  11-4  (?)

There's no real doubt here that Ichinojo will be promoted to East Sekiwake, and that fallen ozeki Tochinoshin should be filling out the West slot. Aoiyama ought to find himself promoted to East Komusubi, with his West counterpart to be decided between a potentially lucky Mitakeumi and Kotoshogiku. An off-the-wall idea would be to keep both 7-8 incumbents, but I think Aoiyama has done enough to warrant selection over Hokutofuji. The latter was just a sanyaku debutant this basho anyway, while it's quite conceivable that Mitakeumi has built up enough goodwill in his 13 straight sanyaku appearance to get the nod for a 14th.


The demotion and promotion picture makuuchi and juryo has...well, it could have finished worse. A trio of maegashira in Kotoeko and debutants Terutsuyoshi and Daishoho won on senshuraku and should have done enough to secure their position for another basho at the last minute. Chiyoshoma and Ishiura weren't so fortunate and finish Haru basho with nominally demotable records. Over in juryo things were helped by Tokushoryu's 9th victory, which has left him looking like at least a semi-credible promotion contender.

Shimanoumi had another impressive match and thus closed his second yusho-winning campaign with the same record as January's, 13-2.

                        M9   Ikioi         2-13 (x)
                        ...
(x) kyujo Chiyonokuni   M12
                        M13
(o)  6-9  Terutsuyoshi  M14  Toyonoshima   5-10 (x)
(??) 6-9  Ishiura       M15  Kotoeko       7-8  (o)
(o)  7-8  Daishoho      M16  Yutakayama    3-12 (x)
(?)  7-8  Chiyoshoma    M17  ---

(o) 13-2  Shimanoumi    J1   Chiyomaru    10-5  (o)
                        J2   Enho          8-7  (o)
                        J3
(?)  8-7  Takagenji     J4   Tokushoryu    9-6  (o)
(??) 8-7  Wakatakakage  J5
     8-7  Kyokushuho    J6

First things first: I really don't see any way that Ikioi and/or Toyonoshima can be kept in makuuchi with those terrible rank/record combos, given the results of everybody else here, so the promotions for the two J1's plus Enho and Tokushoryu should be assured. Years ago I would have said that Chiyoshoma must be toast with a makekoshi at the bottom rank, opening up the possibility of a higher-ranker getting spared, but the recent banzuke committees have been quite happy to non-demote 7-8's all over the banzuke, so I don't have any strong reason to assume that Chiyoshoma is somehow off-limits to such leniency.

I do think that Chiyoshoma would be the next one out, rather than Ishiura, should they decide to promote more than four from juryo. I just don't think it's gonna happen - neither Takagenji nor Wakatakakage have demonstrated any real ability to rise beyond typical juryo performances so far (and I mean in general, not just this last basho), so I find it hard to believe that their promotions would have many supporters on the committee at this point when there are halfway decent maegashira who can be spared instead.

On a general note, the next makuuchi banzuke appears to be pretty straight-forward to me. Nothing I find overly contentious down to M13, and while the last seven spots look like a total mess, it's a mess that should have a solution that is not particularly difficult, just ugly. Your mileage may vary, of course.


Things have been settled in much more straight-forward fashion in low juryo, courtesy of final day losses for both Takanofuji and Wakamotoharu, who should now be headed straight back to makushita after just one tournament. Neither really appeared to be that overmatched though, and they're still young at 21 and 25 years old, so I'd expect to see both back in the paid ranks before too long. Daiseido was defeated for the 10th straight day and his 3-12 record will see him fall rather deep into makushita, so his road back will be quite a bit longer. He, too, only got to spend one basho in juryo here - it's been a little over a year since the last time there were three immediate returns to makushita. (Kizenryu was part of the last three occasions, sheesh...) All the more reason to celebrate debutant Kiribayama's 9-6 record this basho, the sole promotee from Hatsu basho who will stick.

                        J9   Akiseyama     5-10 (?)
                        J10  Wakamotoharu  5-10 (x)
                        J11
                        J12
                        J13  Takanofuji    6-9  (x)
(x)  3-12 Daiseido      J14

(o)  5-2  Irodori       Ms1
(?)  4-3  Fujiazuma     Ms2
                        Ms3  Seiro         6-1
                        Ms4
(o)  7-0  Churanoumi    Ms5  Kotokamatani  5-2

Akiseyama blew his opportunity to leave no doubt about his continued juryo participation, losing on senshuraku for the fourth straight day, but he can probably rest easy thanks to the other wrestlers' results. I'd love to be able to make a case for Fujiazuma to replace him, but there's nothing to support that notion given the vast amount of precedents against overdemotions. So, three very clear exchanges here now with Irodori, Seiro and Churanoumi coming up, and tough luck for Fujiazuma in all likelihood - I'm not sure he'll get to Ms1e, even. (It might be Wakamotoharu's spot instead.)

27-year-old Irodori will be making his sekitori debut following exactly 12 years in professional sumo, while Seiro and Churanoumi are returning to juryo after three and four tournaments respectively. I have a feeling all three will find things rather tough in May.

And finally, the jonidan yusho was decided in the tournament's sole playoff battle. Much-heralded youngster Roga had little trouble with ex-ozeki Terunofuji and flung him down powerfully after putting pressure on him right off the tachiai. Barring a significant improvement in his physical state I suspect that Terunofuji will be in for more like that against makushita-quality opposition soon, if not already in mid-sandanme next time. Roga ought to be moving up high enough into sandanme that 5 wins will be sufficient to secure a makushita promotion for the July basho. He should have a good shot at achieving that, but contending for the sandanme yusho will probably be a bit much to ask.

And with that we're done here. Only a little more than 24 hours until Takakeisho's promotion to ozeki will be official and the juryo promotions get announced. As always, thanks for reading and discussing!

Edited by Asashosakari
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I have a hunch that M9w Ikioi (2-13) will remain in Makuuchi. Perhaps at M17e.

Edited by Bumpkin
Ooops. I meant M17e

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

I have a hunch that M9w Ikioi (2-13) will remain in Makuuchi. Perhaps at M17w.

There would only be a M17w if Takakeisho doesn't get promoted.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Sakura said:

There would only be a M17w if Takakeisho doesn't get promoted.

Untrue.  There is still a day for an Ozeki or Yokozuna to retire.  Thus I will flippantly interpret Bumpkin as saying he thinks such a rikishi will retire.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Untrue.  There is still a day for an Ozeki or Yokozuna to retire.  Thus I will flippantly interpret Bumpkin as saying he thinks such a rikishi will retire.

True, another beer bottle throwing karaoke session can happen in the preceding 6 weeks.   (Sigh...)

Edited by robnplunder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

And with that we're done here. Only a little more than 24 hours until Takakeisho's promotion to ozeki will be official and the juryo promotions get announced. As always, thanks for reading and discussing!

 Thank you!   It's always a pleasure to read your promotion posts.  They read like a well written novel.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

True, another beer bottle throwing karaoke session can happen in the preceding 6 weeks.   (Sigh...)

It will have to happen in the next 1 or 2 days.  The banzuke committee is about to meet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Untrue.  There is still a day for an Ozeki or Yokozuna to retire.  Thus I will flippantly interpret Bumpkin as saying he thinks such a rikishi will retire.

I admit that I was assuming no retirements....

(also, I can't find a shrugging emoticon anywhere)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now