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Haru Basho 2019 Discussion [SPOILERS]

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20 minutes ago, CT3* said:

Forget about the number of wins for a second and ask if Takakeisho has been displaying Ozeki-worthy Sumo. Is beating a struggling, kadoban Ozeki that hasn't managed to get his own kachi-koshi by senshuraku really the measure? I like Takakeisho, but it's a bit hard for me to say he is worthy of promotion at this point.

The "quality" of wins is an entirely subjective judgement and completely open to the bias of those making those types of judgements. The number of wins one has while in sanyaku or the joi over three successive tournaments, on the other hand, is an entirely objective measure. I know this is sumo and things don't (ever, ever, ever) work objectively in sumo, and I know I am viewing this through a western prism that judges sumo like a western sport (which it entirely isn't), but... his run has a yusho, a jun-yusho, all three prizes, he has beaten all three Yokozunae once, has beaten all the Ozeki at least once, and even if he loses tomorrow, has still amassed 33 wins over three tournaments (34 if he wins). It is as comprehensive an Ozeki run in terms of results as was Takayasu's, Tochinoshin's, or any other recent run. Knocking him back for "quality" is unsupported by the evidence and it can only be politics or personal dislike that can support such a decision. Sports that rely on judges (eg figure skating, ballroom dancing, diving, dressage etc) tend to suck because the best competitors often lose, while the judges' favourites often win, because genuine competition between athletes shouldn't be judged subjectively and called a sport. I also know that sumo isn't a sport (not in the western sense), and that I can't judge it that way, and that they will do whatever they want anyway, and that is one of the reasons I love it, and usually I would have no problem with that, but in this one particular instance I feel like the little guy is getting hosed, maybe because his old shisho was Takanohana (or insert your own appropriate conspiracy theory here) or maybe because they genuinely think a purely oshi guy shouldn't be an Ozeki under any circumstances so it doesn't matter how much he wins....  Poor little bloke.

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As far as Hakuho and his silly fake mattas, no they aren't fooling or intimidating anyone. It's a Goeido move frankly. I was glad Takayasu at least stood up and said "Uh, no. You ain't sticking your crotch in my face." instead of taking it like Tochinoshin did. The stare down was all about that. 

As to Takakeisho losing I figured that was happening as he's definitely slowing down. Without the big push to put Ichinojo off balance he was toast. As others have said I expect Tochinoshin to at least semi henka tomorrow which is usually a bad move against Takakeisho as you are off balance in a henka and usually you do not want to be in such a position against Takakeisho. Tomorrow it will work though. 

As far as the yusho, I don't see Kakuryu giving Hak much of a match tomorrow.  Besides the disappointment of no playoff a zensho for Hak means he will almost certainly not show up in May.  I wouldn't be surprised if Kakuryu doesn't show up either. 

Edited by Rocks
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42 minutes ago, Thorbjarn said:

Since I said before that I am conviced he might not get the nod, let me elaborate for a bit: I totally think Takakeisho should become Ozeki with ten wins. 

I think the revisionists history on Takakeisho's performances at the top of the banzuke needs to stop. He is by far the youngest dude among the top 10 rikishi and has put in strong performances after he got smoked in his initial run.

If my math is correct, a win over Tochinoshin would put him at 7 out of 12 against Ozeki and Yokozuna in his last three tournaments AND at 34 out of three. Those would be Ozeki numbers in my mind. 

I think even within the NSK the opinions are also divided as in this forum. The trend (a descending one) in Taka's performance in the recent three bashos does not look good. He was denied promotion because of a bad loss to Goeindo, not because of numbers. Taka's loss today is event worse than that one, and the descending trend is especially a problem. In addition, the NSK is not in urgent need of a new Ozeki. 

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Here comes the Hakuhou Apologist Press to tell you that you're all wrong again. I think that Hakuhou's "fake mattas" happen when the wrestlers are uncoordinated so that Hakuhou forces the matter so that the tachiai is a synchronised affair. This whole thing started after a bout against Yoshikaze in Kyushu 2017 when Hakuhou was dissatisfied with a tachiai and tried to call a matta on his own bout (and was promptly and rightly denied). It looks like he's trying to avoid a non-matta that leads to such a tachiai. 

e.: And by the way, I trust Hakuhou's judgement for what an in-sync tachiai is more than either of the two latest Inosuke. 

Edited by Atenzan
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It's not that Hakuho is an arsehole that is so grating, it's that he is right that is.

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Will M4w Ichinojo (13-1) be awarded all 3 sansho, perhaps as a consolation prize for not getting a chance to face Hakuho?

M2e Daieisho (7-7) with an 8th win over Ichinojo, plus wins over Ozekis Takayasu and Goeido, could get or share a sansho.

M13e Tomokaze (9-5) should get the Kanto-sho with a 10th win. 

 

 

 

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I believe that the O2e Tochinoshin (7-7) v S1e Takakeisho (9-5) bout is a direct exchange bout. If Takakeisho wins, he will have 34 wins, in Sanyaku, over the last 3 bashos. That's Ozeki sumo!

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Regarding the Takakeisho promotion, I agree with Morty. I think it was unfortunate for him to miss out last time. It'll be unfortunate if 33 wins isn't enough the second time as well. Again, it's entirely subjective and open to bias. Shouldn't worry too much about it.

It could be politics or personal dislike. But they decided to cite the loss against Goeido as one of the reasons why they decided against it. So I just guessed that the problem might be a result of conservative mindset and the judges erring towards caution, in case it backfires and their judgement or reputation is called into question.
 

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4 hours ago, Catalin B said:

Wow, that staredown between Hakuho and Takayasu was pretty intense! I assume this isn't something that happens often. Are they getting reprimanded for that?

No, it used to be much more prevalent-it's part of sumo- niramiai.

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1 hour ago, Atenzan said:

Here comes the Hakuhou Apologist Press to tell you that you're all wrong again. I think that Hakuhou's "fake mattas" happen when the wrestlers are uncoordinated so that Hakuhou forces the matter so that the tachiai is a synchronised affair. This whole thing started after a bout against Yoshikaze in Kyushu 2017 when Hakuhou was dissatisfied with a tachiai and tried to call a matta on his own bout (and was promptly and rightly denied). It looks like he's trying to avoid a non-matta that leads to such a tachiai. 

e.: And by the way, I trust Hakuhou's judgement for what an in-sync tachiai is more than either of the two latest Inosuke. 

This would make sense if they didn't happen far too early to be legitimate. He takes off the moment they get into their squat and they haven't even made any effort to touch down yet. It's cheap intimidation tactics. If he at least waited a bit they might even work as that. As is it looks ridiculous. 

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8 hours ago, robnplunder said:

???  

 

Endo got lucky.  The slow-mo showed his foot went out first.

By a mile-how did I miss that? Or more importantly, how did the shinpan (Tamanoi Oyakata) who was sitting RIGHT UNDER THAT miss that?

endo.jpg

Edited by Kintamayama
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54 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

Will M4w Ichinojo (13-1) be awarded all 3 sansho, perhaps as a consolation prize for not getting a chance to face Hakuho?

M2e Daieisho (7-7) with an 8th win over Ichinojo, plus wins over Ozekis Takayasu and Goeido, could get or share a sansho.

M13e Tomokaze (9-5) should get the Kanto-sho with a 10th win.

Ichinojo was excellent in the way he slapped down one after the other - I don't think though that will give him the gino-sho. To get the shukun-sho, Ichinojo must win the yusho.

Tomokaze-Aoiyama could be for the 2nd kanto-sho, Daieisho could well get a gino-sho if he wins.

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I wonder if they are being cautious about Takakeisho's promotion because of how bad and dissapointing Tochinoshin has been since his promotion. Maybe they don't want to promote someone too early and be proven wrong twice in a row.

Yes Tochinoshin had a really good stretch of performances starting with a 14-1 Yusho but he was only ranked M3W with two Yokozuna (Hakuho and Kise) out and with a very mediocre Goeido (8-7), only Takayasu was in the race with him. (Kakuryu "only"had 11 wins...). And yes he followed through  with two good performances as a Sekiwake (although the top of the banzuke was quite weak/ depleted during that stretch) that justified the promotion (10-5 13-2 - one win was a fusen)  but maybe they should have waited one more basho to be sure given his unconsistent performances in the past.  The 10-5 wasn't that crazy, but the 13-2 was nice and he beat Hakuhou for the first time so he got the benefit of the doubt and got promoted.

For his first basho as an ozeki he was already kyujo, had just ok 9-7 and 8-7 records after that, then Kadoban again and  tomorow he'll be fighting to prove he's not one of the worst ozeki ever.

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I wonder if Takakeisho wins in such a way that Tochinoshin lands on Hakuho and forces the yokozuna kyujo if they'll promote him directly to Yokozuna?

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Guys it's my fault. I texted Hakuho before the match to tell him my stream was locking up and I needed a few minutes to find a good one.

Won't happen again.

Edited by neonbelly
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1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

By a mile-how did I miss that? Or more importantly, how did the shinpan (Tamanoi Oyakata) who was sitting RIGHT UNDER THAT miss that?

endo.jpg

Is Endo's foot touching down outside the ring? This picture is inconclusive. His toes could be hovering just above the ground.

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I realize Sadnoumi likes to tough it out when he can but with nothing on the line against Yutakayama I think he might take a pass on Day 15 and go kyujo. I hope he does anyway. 

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2 minutes ago, Rocks said:

I realize Sadnoumi likes to tough it out when he can but with nothing on the line against Yutakayama I think he might take a pass on Day 15 and go kyujo. I hope he does anyway. 

Have we not just witnessed today that Yutakayama can lose against any one-legged mummy?

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3 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

Is Endo's foot touching down outside the ring? This picture is inconclusive. His toes could be hovering just above the ground.

His foot is down. You can see him kick up sand a few frames later.

 

en.gif

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44 minutes ago, Rainoyama said:

I wonder if they are being cautious about Takakeisho's promotion because of how bad and dissapointing Tochinoshin has been since his promotion. Maybe they don't want to promote someone too early and be proven wrong twice in a row.

Yes Tochinoshin had a really good stretch of performances starting with a 14-1 Yusho but he was only ranked M3W with two Yokozuna (Hakuho and Kise) out and with a very mediocre Goeido (8-7), only Takayasu was in the race with him. (Kakuryu "only"had 11 wins...). And yes he followed through  with two good performances as a Sekiwake (although the top of the banzuke was quite weak/ depleted during that stretch) that justified the promotion (10-5 13-2 - one win was a fusen)  but maybe they should have waited one more basho to be sure given his unconsistent performances in the past.  The 10-5 wasn't that crazy, but the 13-2 was nice and he beat Hakuhou for the first time so he got the benefit of the doubt and got promoted.

For his first basho as an ozeki he was already kyujo, had just ok 9-7 and 8-7 records after that, then Kadoban again and  tomorow he'll be fighting to prove he's not one of the worst ozeki ever.

I don't think anyone at the Kyokai is second-guessing Tochinoshin's promotion.  Much like Kisenosato, he suffered an injury just after he was promoted, and he was doing very well prior to that injury (even if it was only a few matches).  If he's the worst Ozeki ever, so what?  Someone has to be, and it's probably going to be someone who gets promoted when up in age and gets an injury immediately.  Well, that's what happened.  It's not like how Goeido was almost the worst Ozeki ever in the few tournaments after his very sketchy promotion - Goeido was in the prime section of his career and wasn't injured badly enough to withdraw yet only only barely scraped by.

Much worse would be promoting someone while they're young and before the top ranks have had time to work out their weaknesses, and have them get demoted within 2 years despite still being before their prime.  That's what happened with Miyabiyama, the only rikishi not unanimously recommended for Ozeki, and they don't want to repeat that.  If he's really good enough to be an Ozeki he'll be able to put together something more convincing.

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3 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

Is Endo's foot touching down outside the ring? This picture is inconclusive. His toes could be hovering just above the ground.

I disagree. No way his foot isn't touching outside.

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1 minute ago, Jakusotsu said:

Have we not just witnessed today that Yutakayama can lose against any one-legged mummy?

True, but I was hoping Sadanoumi had a little more sense. Ikioi could have hurt himself even more and he at least might still avoid demotion with another win and a lot of banzuke luck. Sadanoumi is already safe I think. 

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There hasn't been a basho without a Makuuchi fusen since 2013.  They were much more common last millennium, about one a year, but only 4 (maybe 5 with this one) since 2000.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&group_by=basho&year=>1960&m=on&kimarite=74&offset=300

Edited by Gurowake
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10 minutes ago, Rocks said:

His foot is down. You can see him kick up sand a few frames later.

The sand he kicks up can fill a beach.

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15 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

There hasn't been a basho without a Makuuchi fusen since 2013.  They were much more common last millennium [...] 

The kosho system, or lack thereof, may explain part of that. 

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