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Haru Basho 2019 Discussion [SPOILERS]

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31 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Well, that's interesting. Yoshikaze has quietly reached 10 wins, and against Aoiyama of all people.

Yoshi is 12-11 against Aoiyama.  Surprising.  Without peaking at the database, I'd thought Aoiyama would have a huge edge in their career matches.

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Both komusubi are now makekoshi and Tamawashi could yet be. But with the joi having a nightmare basho, we might have to go pretty far down the banzuke to find the next sanyaku. Ichinojo is obviously a cert. Daieisho still has a chance at kachikoshi so could get the nod. Aoiyama and Kotoshogiku are contenders too. Then again, Mitakeumi might get lucky and just move west while Tamawashi moves to komusubi.

It's also possible they might not open a third Sekiwake slot for Tochinoshin if he gets demoted.

 

Edit: Tamawashi is makekoshi.

Edited by Eikokurai
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Another Sekiwake spot just opened up.

Takakeisho drew Ichinojo on day 14.   The powers to be are trying hard to deny Takakeisho the promotion, so says the conspiracy theory in me. 

Edited by robnplunder

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Takekeisho isn't ready to give up yet. That was an authoritative win.

Edited by Eikokurai
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Ichinojo should better have an extra load of lunch tomorrow.

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1 minute ago, Eikokurai said:

Takekeisho is ready to give up yet. That was an authoritative win.

... and against Takayasu who has been beating Takakeisho.   If he gets one win against Ichi or Tochi, I think it will be really hard to deny his promotion.

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And that's probably Tochinoshin done. I thought he had a decent shot against Kakuryu because his style suits his own strengths, but it wasn't to be.

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I feel really sorry for Tochinoshin. He put up a good fight, stood his ground against Kakuryu. I think if he were100% healthy, he would have lifted Kakuryu out, like in the good old times. 

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2 hours ago, robnplunder said:

Yoshi is 12-11 against Aoiyama.  Surprising.  Without peaking at the database, I'd thought Aoiyama would have a huge edge in their career matches.

Nah. Yoshikaze doesn't mind getting hit in the head which is one of the two weapons Aioyama has, so no surprise from me that he is in front.

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Eight rikishi are going into the final weekend with 10+ wins to their name:

Hakuho 13-0

Ichinojo 12-1

Kakuryu 10-3

Takayasu 10-3

Goeido 10-3

Aoiyama 10-3

Kotoshogiku 10-3

Yoshikaze 10-3

 

From what I can tell, this is the most in quite a number of years. A cursory glance at the records didn’t turn up any basho this century with more than seven 10+ guys after 13 days. I didn’t look any further back (and my search may have been wrong anyway as I’m not the best at database searches). It definitely does look like an unusual basho though. Very few guys have secured their kachikoshi so far.

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Takanofuji's painful face plant. (I think it's Takanofuji, please correct me if I'm wrong.)

tPvm3tU.jpg

KwfdD3k.jpg

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3 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

The season was opened again for mono-ii and Mr. Head-Shimpan Fujishima gave a perfect display of a proper decision and flawless explanation

Onomatsu broke into another impromptu mono-ii rap in Juryo, after the Mitoryu v Tokushoryu bout.

Edit: just saw the post above.....ouch.

Edited by Akōgyokuseki

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Hadn't said anything 'cause I didn't want to jinx him, but I was really worried about Yoshikaze last time, so it's nice to see him back to his old self. Double digits!

It's gonna be weird not having Ikioi in makuuchi, he's been around so long I just expect to see him. Hoping he can heal up and reclaim his slot.

So, Takakeisho! He needed that win but I wasn't confident he could pull it off. Takayasu never able to get anything going. Now the little guy has got Ichinojo. That's gonna be a tough match for him, and a bit of a sadistic choice for an opponent. Guess they want to test him, well, this'll do it! Maneuverability is his advantage here. If he can attack from the side, get him off-balance, then he might have a chance. He might also try a stick and move strategy to see if he can wear the big guy out. Tough bout no matter what he does; he'll never be more than an instant from getting swatted, flung or crushed.

Tochinoshin will be fighting hard the next two days, but I'm not sure that'll be enough. I wish him all the best. Heh, maybe he'll try a henka.

In Hakuho v. Goeido, there was an instant where Hakuho's balance was off, but he recovered so quickly that it would have been impossible for Goeido to exploit from that position. Well, maybe Takayasu will have a better go of it, though the odds of a Hakuho loss this basho are looking ever-more distant.

 

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9 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Don't forget that they look for quality of matches too. That's what made them nix his promotion the last time. The guys that have beaten him have gotten inside to his belt. Once he gives that up, he's been toast. Remember that they didn't promote Miyabiyama in his second attempt even though he had 34 wins. And as somebody else noted earlier, 13-11-10 isn't really a great way to walk into the party.

I agree.I breathed a sigh of relief when he beat Takayasu today but I think he really needs to win his remaining matches to be promoted. Not so much the 13-11-10 progression but if he loses to Ichinojo, he is losing someone ranked much lower than he and if he loses to Tochinoshin, that would also look bad because Tochinoshin is not in great shape and banged up already.  So yeah, Takakeisho unfortunately has his work set out for him this weekend. People on this forum are so focused on the number of wins but they lose sight of the fact that numbers alone are not sufficient and probably not even the most important factor. The committee needs to feel confident that Takakeisho is ozeki material given the quality of his sumo and his ability to demonstrate consistency in his matches. I am on the fence right now about his sumo to be quite honest.

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Meisei is having a good basho and is showing good sumo. I like him more and more. He should be ranked much higher next basho let's see if he hits the wall or not.

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12 minutes ago, Rainoyama said:

Meisei is having a good basho and is showing good sumo. I like him more and more. He should be ranked much higher next basho let's see if he hits the wall or not.

Makes him even harder to tell apart from Daieisho.

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32 minutes ago, wys said:

I agree.I breathed a sigh of relief when he beat Takayasu today but I think he really needs to win his remaining matches to be promoted. Not so much the 13-11-10 progression but if he loses to Ichinojo, he is losing someone ranked much lower than he and if he loses to Tochinoshin, that would also look bad because Tochinoshin is not in great shape and banged up already.  So yeah, Takakeisho unfortunately has his work set out for him this weekend. People on this forum are so focused on the number of wins but they lose sight of the fact that numbers alone are not sufficient and probably not even the most important factor. The committee needs to feel confident that Takakeisho is ozeki material given the quality of his sumo and his ability to demonstrate consistency in his matches. I am on the fence right now about his sumo to be quite honest.

I am one who has often said something similar (ie, it isn't the numbers but the quality). But with Takakeisho the numbers do tell you something, much like Kisenosato's numbers told you something before he finally yusho'd. They suggest a consistent level of quality in his sumo over his entire career. Takakeisho has been in makuuchi for 14 basho and has achieved at least ten wins in seven of them, nine wins in three more (including this one which could still end up as ten, or more), and four MK. In that short time he also has a yusho, two jun-yusho, six prizes and three kinboshi. His long term trajectory is that he wins, consistently, and continually improves. Personally I think that they should have promoted him last basho, because he has been showing Ozeki level quality for a while now, and if they don't promote him with ten here then that seems super harsh to me. It doesn't matter that he just does Oshi sumo because he wins with it, consistently.

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18 hours ago, robnplunder said:

As much as I like Nishikigi, I didn't think he'd do well in this basho.   He was less than .500 at M3 & M2 in the last two bashos against Sanyuku depleted field.   With almost every sanyuku in the field in this basho, he met the Makuuchi wall.  I hope to see him bounce back in the next basho to reclaim a joi position and go from there.

To be fair, he beat two Ozeki and two Yokozunae before he started losing in the last Basho. I'm firmly in the Camp with those who thought he did surprisingly well in Hatsu. 

I am also in the "Takakeisho needs to win out" camp. Most interesting scenario would be him facing Tochinoshin at 7-7 on senshuraku. Relegation/Promotion Playoff. If Takakeisho beats Tochinoshin, the powers that be may very well consider ten wins enough and the match might be their change-of-the-guard-moment. For that one rank, not for the entire generation. 

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I'm with Morty^. Takakeisho needs only one more win for ozeki promotion. If he manages to beat Ichinojo, it's a cert, but beating Tochinoshin will do. Steak, as Moti might say.

That's a thing, how vanishingly miniscule must Ichinojo's attention span have been if concentration really is the issue he's come to terms with? I've often thought his problem was mental rather than the lumbar trouble he's said to have, but still...

I'm kind of torn. I'm rooting for Takakeisho, but Ichinojo finally fulfilling the promise of his makuuchi debut is a really exciting prospect, too.

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1 hour ago, wys said:

I agree.I breathed a sigh of relief when he beat Takayasu today but I think he really needs to win his remaining matches to be promoted. Not so much the 13-11-10 progression but if he loses to Ichinojo, he is losing someone ranked much lower than he and if he loses to Tochinoshin, that would also look bad because Tochinoshin is not in great shape and banged up already.  So yeah, Takakeisho unfortunately has his work set out for him this weekend. People on this forum are so focused on the number of wins but they lose sight of the fact that numbers alone are not sufficient and probably not even the most important factor. The committee needs to feel confident that Takakeisho is ozeki material given the quality of his sumo and his ability to demonstrate consistency in his matches. I am on the fence right now about his sumo to be quite honest.

Takakeisho has already quality wins. He won against Kakuryu and against Takayasu and these two wins was not easy. If he wins against Ichinojo or Tochinoshin then he has double digit wins. I do not think he has to win against both of them to be promoted

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28 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

That's a thing, how vanishingly miniscule must Ichinojo's attention span have been if concentration really is the issue he's come to terms with? I've often thought his problem was mental rather than the lumbar trouble he's said to have, but still...

My take on it: archery not only teaches you concentration but also a firm stance, something Ichinojo was a bit lacking before. And perhaps he'd been listening too much to people telling him to be more agile. That's just not his style, he needs to be the last man standing.

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5 hours ago, robnplunder said:

Another Sekiwake spot just opened up.

Takakeisho drew Ichinojo on day 14.   The powers to be are trying hard to deny Takakeisho the promotion, so says the conspiracy theory in me. 

You have it backwards. They are trying to have Ichinojou face the best opponent possible within the framework. They don't want him to walk backwards to his 13th win. 2-7 against Takakeishou. 

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I do hope Hakuho will lose one of his matches now, and Ichinojo wins them all, because I'll feel a little robbed if those two don't go head to head this basho.

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Goueidou went straight for the mae-mitsu mawashi front. Instead of grabbing the mawashi, he grabbed Hakuhou's sagari, which of course immediately came off and into Goueidou's grasp, leaving him essentially with one hand, while the other was trying to get rid of the sagari. That second was enough for Hakuhou to take the initiative. I laughed.

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