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Kintamayama

GTB March to your room with no dinner, Mr! 2019+ results!!

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77 entries.

Here's mine:

Hakuho (Y1w 10-4-1)      Y    Kakuryu (Y2e 2-4-9)
Takayasu (O1e 9-6)       O1   Goeido (O1w 9-6)
Tochinoshin (O2w 0-5-10) O2   ---
Tamawashi (Sw 13-2 Y)    S    Takakeisho (Se 11-4)
Mitakeumi (Kw 8-4-3)     K    Hokutofuji (M2w 9-6)

Kaisei (M8e 10-5)        M1   Myogiryu (Ke 5-10)
Nishikigi (M2e 7-8)      M2   Tochiozan (M1e 6-9)
Shodai (M3e 7-8)         M3   Ichinojo (M1w 6-9)
Endo (M9w 10-5)          M4   Daieisho (M7w 9-6)
Chiyotairyu (M6e 8-7)    M5   Onosho (M6w 8-7)
Abi (M10w 10-5)          M6   Okinoumi (M4w 7-8)
Aoiyama (M5e 7-8)        M7   Takarafuji (M10e 9-6)
Asanoyama (M8w 8-7)      M8   Kotoshogiku (M4e 6-9)
Sadanoumi (M11e 9-6)     M9   Ikioi (M11w 9-6)
Shohozan (M3w 5-10)      M10  Yago (M13e 9-6)
Ryuden (M7e 6-9)         M11  Meisei (M12w 8-7)
Yoshikaze (M5w 3-12)     M12  Chiyonokuni (M15e 8-3-4)
Tomokaze (J4e 10-5)      M13  Kagayaki (M12e 6-9)
Terutsuyoshi (J1e 8-7)   M14  Daishoho (J1w 8-7)
Toyonoshima (J5w 10-5)   M15  Ishiura (J3w 9-6)
Kotoeko (M15w 7-8)       M16  Yutakayama (M14e 6-9)
Chiyoshoma (M14w 6-9)    M17  ---

I'd guess that M1w-M4w will be sorting the men from the boys here (adjust gender as applicable). Plenty of other pitfalls, of course, but the joi seems like the area where it'll be possible to gain/lose the most relative to the field as a whole.

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1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

77 entries.

Here's mine:

Well, one of us is going to be very, very wrong and I won't be betting on me being right.

 

Mine:

   Yokozuna E: Hakuho Y1w (10-4-1)

    Yokozuna W: Kakuryu Y2e (2-4-9)

      Ozeki E: Takayasu O1e (9-6)

      Ozeki W: Goeido O1w (9-6)

      Ozeki E2: Tochinoshin O2w (0-5-10)

    Sekiwake E: Tamawashi S1w (13-2)

    Sekiwake W: Takakeisho S1e (11-4)

    Komusubi E: Mitakeumi K1w (8-4-3)

    Komusubi W: Hokutofuji M2w (9-6)

  Maegashira E: Kaisei M8e (10-5)

  Maegashira W: Daieisho M7w (9-6)

Maegashira E2: Chiyotairyu M6e (8-7)

Maegashira W2: Onosho M6w (8-7)

Maegashira E3: Nishikigi M2e (7-8)

Maegashira W3: Endo M9w (10-5)

Maegashira E4: Tochiozan M1e (6-9)

Maegashira W4: Ichinojo M1w (6-9)

Maegashira E5: Shodai M3e (7-8)

Maegashira W5: Abi M10w (10-5)

Maegashira E6: Myogiryu K1e (5-10)

Maegashira W6: Asanoyama M8w (8-7)

Maegashira E7: Okinoumi M4w (7-8)

Maegashira W7: Aoiyama M5e (7-8)

Maegashira E8: Takarafuji M10e (9-6)

Maegashira W8: Sadanoumi M11e (9-6)

Maegashira E9: Ikioi M11w (9-6)

Maegashira W9: Yago M13e (9-6)

Maegashira E10: Kotoshogiku M4e (6-9)

Maegashira W10: Shohozan M3w (5-10)

Maegashira E11: Meisei M12w (8-7)

Maegashira W11: Ryuden M7e (6-9)

Maegashira E12: Yoshikaze M5w (3-12)

Maegashira W12: Ishiura J3w (9-6)

Maegashira E13: Tomokaze J4e (10-5)

Maegashira W13: Toyonoshima J5w (10-5)

Maegashira E14: Chiyonokuni M15e (8-3-4)

Maegashira W14: Kagayaki M12e (6-9)

Maegashira E15: Terutsuyoshi J1e (8-7)

Maegashira W15: Kotoeko M15w (7-8)

Maegashira E16: Yutakayama M14e (6-9)

Maegashira W16: Chiyoshoma M14w (6-9)

Maegashira E17: Daishoho J1w (8-7)

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I'm in.........

I threw the rule book out the window this time and actually found it easier than I expected.....

Probably finish last......

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image.png.4a8302b35fb24d327e7aea1f114032a4.png

Yeah, looks like the joi will have a massive difference in possible opinions, while the rough spots in terms of bad banzuke luck probably won't be as contentious as to the broad strokes. I never actually considered Myogiryu for M1w; unlike with 4-11 K Tamawashi -> M2w back then, I thought the best KKs available were good enough to take the spot(s) without further thought.  If I was going to bring one up that high, the other with the same rank+record was going to be in the next spot and Nishikigi was going to scoot over to the west and then Myogiryu was perfectly suited for what was left.   Yes, Daieisho and Endo do deserve by the numbers to be below all those joi MKs, but I just hadn't considered it a real possibility because I didn't think to put Myogiryu up at M1w.  Now that I see someone actually having done that, it doesn't look that bad when considering how the rest of it shakes out. 

I might still lean toward the larger promotions for Endo and Daieisho partially because I perceived the joi as quite soft.  Kisenosato, Kakuryu and Tochinoshin gave up a lot of early wins before leaving, and Takayasu and Goeido were in real trouble early on.  Now this is partially offset by the performance of the Sekiwake and Mitakeumi, who gave up significantly fewer losses overall than most junior sanyaku, but at least for Myogiryu, I look at his 5-6 -> 5-10 against the lowest ranked rikishi he faced and think there's no way he deserves M1 still.  Maybe Daieisho should be lower given his fusensho and mass of wins against double-digit maegashira, but at least Endo seems deserving of the M1 spot considering one of his losses was against the Yusho winner and he defeated 2 joi maegashira (the match against Hokutofuji being one of the really weird Day 8 matches).

Rocks, well, I'm glad that you still enter.

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1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Rocks, well, I'm glad that you still enter.

(Singingdrunk...) Thanks!

Yeah, I know I over demoted Myogiryu but I didn't see much choice. I think Tamawashi only going to M2 was a total aberration based on the absolute terrible records in joi, few even KKing in the middle third and Tamawashi being in Sanyaku pretty steady for the 2 years prior. None of which is true for Myogiryu.  I have guys like Chiyotairyu, Onosho, Endo and Abi going way up because they have been there already, had good records, and are mostly young and healthy at this point anyway. 

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I find it interesting how some of you floated Myogiryu in front of Tochiozan. With my current understanding it feels like Myogiryu should definitely be below Tochiozan but of course checking the db you can find examples of a 5W K in front of a 6W M1e the next basho. Seems like the counter example is more numerous though... So what kind of thought process leads you to that?

This is opposed to putting Endo in front of Daieisho - I see that and it makes more sense than what I did. Both records @ those ranks should have the same 'value' but Endo has more absolute wins, so he goes ahead.

 

image.png.401da47d48dfbe9251489b1206583b73.png

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Typically, a Komusubi gets "credit" for being in sanyaku. He will be ranked ahead of an M1 with one less win.

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51 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

Typically, a Komusubi gets "credit" for being in sanyaku. He will be ranked ahead of an M1 with one less win.

Only 27 instances in the 15 basho era and I didn't check them all but of the 5 examples prior to this basho none of the 5 win komosubi ended up ranked higher than the 6 win M1 the next basho, and only 1 was even the same rank. You have to go back to 2006 before you see that happening. Given 6 of Myogiryu's 10 losses came at the hands of guys ranked lower than himself, as opposed to 3 of Tamawashi's 11 losses in Aki 2018,  I don't think he'll be getting much credit. With Tochiozan losing 2 to lower rankers and Ichinojo losing 4,  I will be stunned if  Myogiryu ends up ranked higher than they are. 

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&rank1=k&wins1=5&winsopt1=2&rank2=m1&wins2=6&winsopt2=2

Edited by Rocks
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6 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

I find it interesting how some of you floated Myogiryu in front of Tochiozan. With my current understanding it feels like Myogiryu should definitely be below Tochiozan but of course checking the db you can find examples of a 5W K in front of a 6W M1e the next basho. Seems like the counter example is more numerous though... So what kind of thought process leads you to that?

My logic here is along the lines of Haru -> Natsu 2018 where Chiyotairyu got a rather lenient demotion and stayed in front of Shodai and Kotoshogiku, who themselves still got off very lightly anyway. Basically, the assumption is that if there's room to fill and there are no KK players to do it with, demoted sanyaku can/will end up significantly underdemoted. At the very least Myogiryu at M1w is a lot more likely than Tochiozan, the only other MK choice.

Of course, if they do decide to move up Endo and Daieisho on their KKs, then that's not applicable. I wouldn't do M2w Myogiryu / M3e Nishikigi or Tochiozan. (I might have 15 years ago, when sanyaku seemed to get more lenient demotions across the board, not just on a space-available basis.)

Edited by Asashosakari

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Well that sure was something that happened.

BanzukeHaru2019.png.fd02689e162c772dd7dd5fce7875638b.png

Putting all three 10-5's at the top was too convenient, but I would just switch Abi and Daiesho now that I think about it. Same thing at the bottom by switching the juryo promotees with the Kotokayama trio. Shimanoumi as the dark horse there because I completely overlooked Toyonoshima frankly.

Oh, and hi, decided to join in after lurking in the shadows for quite a while.

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Tochinoshin will be O2e. (East). Guaranteed.

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4 hours ago, Thelone said:

Well that sure was something that happened.

BanzukeHaru2019.png.fd02689e162c772dd7dd5fce7875638b.png

Putting all three 10-5's at the top was too convenient, but I would just switch Abi and Daiesho now that I think about it. Same thing at the bottom by switching the juryo promotees with the Kotokayama trio. Shimanoumi as the dark horse there because I completely overlooked Toyonoshima frankly.

Oh, and hi, decided to join in after lurking in the shadows for quite a while.

Hello and welcome Thelone......(Not so LONE anymore)

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3 hours ago, Bumpkin said:

Tochinoshin will be O2e. (East). Guaranteed.

Yes but will the final position on the banzuke be M17 e or M17 w? As in - M17e Ishiura                 0r                M17w Ishiura    I'm not saying Ishiura was my pick its just an example (I forget who I picked and didn't write it down instead I entered straight to the entry page for the 1st time-Good idea or not? It probably wasn't but it cut my entry time down and the clock was ticking)

(If Its M17e then that's me dropping points already)

Edited by Fujisan

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Lone maegashira in last rank is always east. The east-west equilibrium rules are only for sanyaku (I guess because they have their shikona written SUPER BIG in written banzuke and their body in BIG SIZE as well for printed banzuke)

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45 minutes ago, Nantonoyama said:

Lone maegashira in last rank is always east. The east-west equilibrium rules are only for sanyaku (I guess because they have their shikona written SUPER BIG in written banzuke and their body in BIG SIZE as well for printed banzuke)

Thanks.......

"Fujisan shoots himself in the foot again."

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Kintamayama-

Is it possible for you to put my entry ln this thread?

Or is it against the rules

Edited by Fujisan

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On 20/02/2019 at 22:44, Fujisan said:

Kintamayama-

Is it possible for you to put my entry ln this thread?

Or is it against the rules

I would if I had it..

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Wow, I'm in for a drubbing then. I promoted all top 8-7 guys very nicely ( 3 spots) and demoted all the 6-9 guys at the top very lavishly including Myougiryuu, Tochiouzan and Ichinojou, so my 3-6 looks very different than all of yours. Additionally, I promoted Shimanoumi and Chiyomaru to the bottom two ranks at the expense of the 6-9 Yutakayama and Chiyoshouma. The 17th spot opening notwithstanding, I feel something in the air. Like a last place placing, for example.

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6 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

I would if I had it..

Oh.....

You mean,you don't have access to that information on the site?(I am on the entry list I checked just in case)

I did wonder about that......

Sorry  Moti and thanks anyway......

I will just have to wait I guess......

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24 minutes ago, Fujisan said:

Oh.....

You mean,you don't have access to that information on the site?(I am on the entry list I checked just in case)

I did wonder about that......

Sorry  Moti and thanks anyway......

I will just have to wait I guess......

I don’t have access to the guesses at all. You did get a copy of it, did you not?

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12 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

I don’t have access to the guesses at all. You did get a copy of it, did you not?

I probably do but I haven't really accessed my email for years......

It was such a mess that I stopped using it except when I need an email address to enter the games and to access this site.....I dread to think what its like now....

I have never really been a person who converses with emails anyway so it didn't cause me any problems not using it.........

I have been meaning to open another email account but never got round to it........ 

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1 hour ago, Fujisan said:

I probably do but I haven't really accessed my email for years......

It was such a mess that I stopped using it except when I need an email address to enter the games and to access this site.....I dread to think what its like now....

I have never really been a person who converses with emails anyway so it didn't cause me any problems not using it.........

I have been meaning to open another email account but never got round to it........ 

.........

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Barely in time, the GTB ranking preview:

43 of the top 44 players are in for this difficult edition, with quite a few more absences from there down to my usual "regular players" cutoff at 60th place, however - #19 Gooner, #45 Ketsukai, #49 Tiger Tanaka, #53 Tupayumi, #56 Veshana and #57 Mariohana are missing this time.

It's the second consecutive absence for Tiger Tanaka, so that'll be zero points there, while #35 Sukubidubidu, #51 Tatsuomi, #58 Korinokoishi and #60 Wakatake are back in action after skipping the Hatsu edition.

The provisional post-Haru ranking - current pre-Haru standings in brackets. The list includes all top 20 both pre and post:

 1 Asashosakari    4.274  ( 4 / 5.416)
 2 Pandaazuma      4.214  ( 1 / 5.542)
 3 Okisuruga       4.203  ( 3 / 5.461)
 4 Chiyonosawa     4.178  ( 2 / 5.476)
 5 Feginowaka      4.120  ( 5 / 5.380)
 6 Flohru          4.041  ( 7 / 5.181)
 7 Gurowake        4.021  ( 6 / 5.207)
 8 Tenshinhan      3.985  ( 9 / 5.054)
 9 Andonishiki     3.969  ( 8 / 5.171)
10 Gooner          3.940  (19 / 4.852)
11 Heriokuno       3.916  (10 / 5.046)
12 Seki Haruaki    3.903  (12 / 4.976)
13 Susanoo         3.896  (11 / 5.013)
14 Toyama          3.865  (14 / 4.934)
15 Ryoshishokunin  3.851  (21 / 4.841)
16 Shatsume        3.805  (17 / 4.861)
17 Sakura          3.804  (15 / 4.915)
18 Nantonoyama     3.785  (24 / 4.813)
19 Tsuchinoninjin  3.783  (26 / 4.796)
20 Yubinhaad       3.778  (25 / 4.807)
..
21 Ganzohnesushi   3.768  (13 / 4.956)
25 Oshirokita      3.691  (20 / 4.845)
26 Taxinohana      3.690  (16 / 4.870)
27 Jakusotsu       3.687  (18 / 4.858)

Gooner won't be realizing his projected improvement due to his absence, as his converted 1-14 record from Hatsu 2018 will now stay on his tally for another basho.

There's no shortage of other potential big jumps and falls this time, though, as the table indicates - Taxinohana (tied 4th), Ganzohnesushi, Jakusotsu (both tied 6th) and Oshirokita (tied 8th) are all defending major points from a year ago at Haru. Conversely, that basho saw sub-par results for Nantonoyama, Yubinhaad (both 7-8) and Ryoshishokunin (6-9), alongside Tsuchinoninjin whose 5-10 score to be defended dates back to Kyushu 2017.

The top contenders for the post-Haru lead have also been jumbled up significantly compared to the current actual standings. Asashosakari is the provisional new #1 "thanks" to only 1.06 ranking points scored last March - the other top 5 players were in the first 4 positions for that tournament and all achieved in excess of 1.30 points there, so they're defending much greater chunks of their overall totals right now.

Nevertheless, the difference between 1st and 5th amounts to only about 7 game points, and given that nobody really seems to know what to expect from this basho's banzuke, we could find ourselves with some big surprises in the new overall ranking as well. Could we be in for a completely new leader again? The top 5 have oligopolized the #1 spot for the last few years, each making multiple appearances up there, with only 3 of the last 25 ranking lists headed by somebody else (Tenshinhan after Aki 2016, Susanoo after Kyushu 2017, and Chishafuwaku after Haru 2018).
 

Edited by Asashosakari
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I'm counting 60 on mine.  Better than I would have hoped given the options available, but how many others saw the same path but better?

Mistakes were:

Tamawashi and Takakeisho -2

Nishikigi and Myogiryu -4 (-6)

Abi, Onosho, Okinoumi -5 (-11)

Shohozan, Sadanoumi, Ikioi -5 (-16)

Yoshikaze and Chiyonokuni -2 (-18)

Kagayaki and Tomokaze -2 (-20)

Daishoho and Kotoeko -4 (-24)

Edited by Gurowake

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