Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2019

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38 minutes ago, wys said:

Goes to show that sumo is really a young man's sport.

The bottom half of Jonidan is full of young men.  Sumo, like so many sports, seems to be dominated by smart and athletically gifted men.  They can do things at a young age that others will never be able to do at any age.

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1 hour ago, wys said:

Goes to show that sumo is really a young man's sport.

Tell that to Tamawashi!

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1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

The bottom half of Jonidan is full of young men. 

and the top half of Jonidan is full of old men still working to make those young men earn their way out of the bottom half.

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50 minutes ago, Asojima said:

and the top half of Jonidan is full of old men still working to make those young men earn their way out of the bottom half.

 ... and every one of them was once a young man, posing with clenched fist next to his new stable master, announcing that his goal was to be a Yokozuna.

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1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

 ... and every one of them was once a young man, posing with clenched fist next to his new stable master, announcing that his goal was to be a Yokozuna.

" My life as a sumotori is a joyless exercise in futility."

paraphrasing Robert Fripp

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1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

 ... and every one of them was once a young man, posing with clenched fist next to his new stable master, announcing that his goal was to be a Yokozuna.

Actually, some of them have said they want to become a sekitori. As an example, I have read this on the forum more than once: 'I want to make Juryo in five years.'

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6 hours ago, Tiger Tanaka said:

What's missing here is strength of victories within the context of the run though. I'd argue Baruto's run had stronger claim even with the fusen. He beat Hakuho and all three Ozeki in his 3rd tournament in your query. During the run, Takekeisho had the following record by rank

  • Y: 2-3 (One against Kisenosato, during his 0-5 basho where he looked at Juryo level)
  • O: 3-5
  • S: 3-2
  • K: 3-1
  • M: 22-1

That's about as imbalanced as it can get. Also, minor discrepancy, but Takekeisho's run has been K-K-S, this basho was his debut at Sekiwake. Only two others have those criteria, both made Ozeki, but the key there is both also had a stronger strength of victory compared to the above.

For the record, I hope Takekeisho makes Ozeki. I think both he and Mitakeumi eventually make it as the Y/O group continues to age and compile injuries. The only barrier to this is if some of those promising rikishi rising quickly in the lower ranks make sanyaku in the next 12-18 months, making 11 wins per basho more challenging than it currently is.

 Just going by the record, he should be ranked as a low Ozeki or high Sekiwake.   What would make his record "balanced" in your opinion?

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1 hour ago, robnplunder said:

 Just going by the record, he should be ranked as a low Ozeki or high Sekiwake.   What would make his record "balanced" in your opinion?

I agree with that assessment that its the performance level of a low Ozeki / high Sekiwake, but for someone trying to prove he's ready for the role of Ozeki, I wouldn't say teetering between ranks would qualify him as ready. The last thing I would want is for him to hop on the Kadoban carousel right after his promotion. Similar to why I was okay with Mitakeumi's run falling short as I wouldn't want anyone let alone my favorites be perceived as a let down or failed Ozeki as a result of being promoted too soon. 

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Daiseido had an extra reason for wanting to return to Juryo - his older brother Sasayama told him six months ago that he planned to retire soon, and Daiseido wanted to send him off as a sekitori. It was his way of saying thanks to his brother for his guidance over the years, having followed in his footsteps throughout their school years and then to Kise-beya. Daiseido secured his Juryo return here and will be on the list of promotions announced on Wednesday, at the same time as his brother will be on the intai list.

After 11 years on the dohyo, Sasayama will work at a charcoal grill izakaya in Tokyo which specializes in cuisine from their home prefecture Aomori.


201901270000085-w500_0.jpg

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And the usually delayed...

Day 15 (results, text-only results):

13-2 Sw Tamawashi

12-3 ---

11-4 Se Takakeisho

(x) 0-4-i Kisenosato    Y1   Hakuho      10-4-1
    2-4-9 Kakuryu       Y2
     9-6  Takayasu      O1   Goeido        9-6
                        O2   Tochinoshin  0-5-10
    11-4  Takakeisho    S    Tamawashi    13-2

Congrats to yusho winner Tamawashi! Cleverly fending off Endo's attempts to close in off the tachiai, a quick thrustdown was all it took to seal the deal. At 34 years and 2 months of age, Tamawashi is the 4th-oldest first-time makuuchi yusho winner of modern era sumo, following Kyokutenho (2012, 37y 8m), Toyokuni (1929, 35y 7m), and Tamanoumi (1957, 34y 10m).

Takakeisho's hopes of winning back-to-back championships were already dashed by the time he stepped up on the dohyo for his own bout, and to add insult to injury he showed uncharacteristically bad sumo in a quick oshidashi loss to ozeki Goeido, which may well have cost him the ozeki promotion despite clocking in at the generally expected 33 wins in 3 basho. I'm fairly surprised that the committee have given him the thumbs down here - the decision is well in line with past precedents about promotion candidates who are young and still relatively untested at the joi level, but with all the upheaval in the high ranks in recent times I didn't think they would be able to resist an opportunity to create some good news for a change.

Here's hoping Takakeisho will be able to secure his promotion next basho, and of course Tamawashi will be put on watch as well. We'll see who gets to compete for that from the Sekiwake East slot - personally I'm going to treat the recent two cases of sekiwake rikishi not getting re-arranged on their W-L records as an idiotic aberration that the banzuke committee has hopefully put aside again, so I'm expecting Tamawashi to take over the higher-ranked position.

The two sekiwake also shared in this basho's minor silverware, with the yusho winner receiving both the shukun-sho and the kanto-sho, and the runner-up being awarded the gino-sho. Komusubi Mitakeumi received a shukun-sho as well, making waves as the first rikishi ever to get a prize without full tournament attendance. Hard to consider it unwarranted, however, given that he defeated all three yokozuna and the top 2 performers of the basho. On a trivia note: Aside from last year's Aki tournament when no sansho were awarded at all, this is the first time since Natsu 2015 that no maegashira received a prize, and the first time since all the way back in Kyushu 1999 that it happened while all three prize types got awarded.

Takakeisho ended up as the only rikishi to finish in the runner-up position, after 10-4 contenders Endo, Kaisei (lost to ozeki Takayasu) and Abi (defeated by Yago) were all unsuccessful on the final day. Outside of Aki 2018 (again!) where Goeido's 11-4 record was even good enough to reach - and lose - a playoff, one has to go back to Nagoya 2008 to find another tournament in which only 11 wins were good enough for a sole second place finish.

Both ozeki got to end their Hatsu campaigns on an upbeat note, closing out with shiroboshi for matching 9-6 records. Consequently there will be no change in their ranking order for Haru, except for injured and now kadoban Tochinoshin shifting to the East side at the second rung, due to the retirement of yokozuna Kisenosato.

Rather unusual for a basho with so many high-ranked dropouts there were hardly any strong performances in the maegashira-joi - only Hokutofuji managed to reach kachikoshi between M1 and M5, the least KKs up there in nearly two years, and will deservedly earn his debut in the titled ranks for his 15th top division tournament. He replaces Myogiryu whose final record ended up at only 5-10 with a closing four-loss streak, rather disappointing after he appeared in good nick to retain his rank at 5-6 with the hard part of his basho schedule completed.

If there's any good news to take away from Takakeisho's non-promotion, it's that there's at least no need to source an ultra-lucky sanyaku promotee now, after absolutely everybody who was part of that conversation managed to be defeated on senshuraku. The new banzuke still looks quite hard to put together, with open space between M1 and M3 - which could mean Myogiryu gets just as lucky than Tamawashi did as Komusubi East with a 4-11 four months ago - followed by a major crunch area that looks to extend all the way down to around M11. Plenty of bad banzuke luck to go around here, most likely.

(x)  5-10 Myogiryu      K    Mitakeumi    8-4-3

                        M1
                        M2   Hokutofuji    9-6  (o)
                        M3
                        M4
                        M5
     8-7  Chiyotairyu   M6   Onosho        8-7
                        M7   Daieisho      9-6
    10-5  Kaisei        M8
                        M9   Endo         10-5
                        M10  Abi          10-5


The promotion/demotion decision between the maegashira ranks and juryo ended up getting settled in semi-straight-forward fashion. In the lower division, senshuraku victories for Daishoho and Tomokaze and a loss for Chiyomaru against Shimanoumi pushed up the number of credible promotion candidates to exactly 5, enough to fill out all the definitely available slots. Chiyomaru and low-ranked Shimanoumi remain as candidates for possible lucky call-ups, and as it happens there are also two maegashira on the bubble - Yutakayama was defeated by Kagayaki in their playoff for safe status, and Chiyoshoma also fell to a demotable 6-9 record in a somewhat questionable loss to Kotoshogiku.

The Oitekaze duo ranked at M16 ended things with another pair of losses, but may be getting very lucky on the next banzuke as there's a real dearth of candidates to fill out the upper half of the juryo division.

(x) intai Takanoiwa     M9   
                        M10
                        M11
(o)  6-9  Kagayaki      M12
                        M13  Kotoyuki     4-7-4 (x)
(?)  6-9  Yutakayama    M14  Chiyoshoma    6-9  (?)
                        M15
(x)  4-11 Daiamami      M16  Daishomaru    3-12 (x)

(o)  8-7  Terutsuyoshi  J1   Daishoho      8-7  (o)
                        J2
                        J3   Ishiura       9-6  (o)
(o) 10-5  Tomokaze      J4
                        J5   Toyonoshima  10-5  (o)
                        J6   Chiyomaru    10-5  (?)
                        ...
(?) 13-2  Shimanoumi    J11

Given recent tendencies at the banzuke committee it won't come as a surprise that I'm expecting just the 5 obvious promotions to happen here, with both M14 guys barely hanging on to their maegashira spots. Yutakayama hasn't quite looked like himself in recent tournaments, but should be skilled enough to stay here if his genkiness can improve, while Chiyoshoma has been deep in the demotion race for four straight basho now and it appears to be just a matter of time until he runs out of rope.

Terutsuyoshi, Daishoho and Tomokaze (and possibly even Shimanoumi) are all set to make their top division debuts in March, the first time in nearly 6 years that there will be more than 2 of them simultaneously. Coincidentally, all three are 24 years old, although they made their professional sumo debuts at completely different times (in 2010, 2013 and 2017 respectively).

On another note, congrats again to Shimanoumi on an excellent tournament championship in the second division, with an impressive final tally of 13 wins. If his improved sumo wasn't a complete fluke here this month, he should find himself in the mix for a makuuchi debut later this year if he fails to make the cut this time.


And finally, we were still looking for two juryo spots to be filled for Haru basho. Takanofuji had the opportunity to move first, and found himself challenged severely by fellow ex-juryo Churanoumi...close to losing several times, Takanofuji managed to regroup and finally prevailed with a kainahineri pulldown after more than a full minute of action. That served to put big pressure on talented youngster Ryuko - and he wasn't up to the task, losing awkwardly to veteran Sokokurai and finishes at just 4-3. That was good news for 22-year-old Kiribayama, however, who is now certain to make his sekitori debut, alongside 25-year-old makushita yusho winner Wakamotoharu. Ryuko, still only 20 years of age himself, does look likely to be joining them before too long, though.

(x) 1-9-i Takekaze      J12
                        J13  Jokoryu      5-9-1 (x)
                        J14

(o)  4-3  Daiseido      Ms1  Kiribayama    4-3  (o)
                        Ms2  Ryuko         4-3
(o)  5-2  Takanofuji    Ms3  Wakamotoharu  7-0  (o)
                        Ms4
                        Ms5


In the last bit of news for the basho, the jonidan yusho was won by collegiate injury returnee Hatooka who collected his second straight divisional title, although he wasn't above HNH'ing his way to the decisive advantage off the tachiai against underdog Hokutoo. The latter should have his hands full in mid-sandanme next time, while Hatooka will be ranked high enough to need just 5 wins for a return to makushita for May.

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The final results of the former sekitori, lest I forget to post them again like I did last basho...
 

Record   Rank   Shikona Heya Age Out HiRk M# J#
4-3 Ms1e Daiseido Kise 26 7 J12   2
5-2 Ms3e Takanofuji Chiganoura 21 5 J14   1
1-4-2 Ms4e Gokushindo Nishikido 22 1 J13   1
2-5 Ms4w Akua Tatsunami 28 2 J14   2
0-3-4 Ms5e Chiyonoo Kokonoe 27 1 M15 2 31
2-5 Ms5w Toyohibiki Sakaigawa 34 6 M2 52 14
 
4-3 Ms6e Seiro Shikoroyama 30 2 M14 3 29
3-4 Ms7w Sagatsukasa Irumagawa 37 29 M9 6 22
4-3 Ms9e Churanoumi Kise 25 3 J14   1
6-1 Ms10e Fujiazuma Tamanoi 31 11 M4 17 18
2-5 Ms12e Kagamio Kagamiyama 30 16 M9 7 14
2-5 Ms12w Chiyootori Kokonoe 26 7 K 19 16
4-3 Ms15w Kizenryu Kise 33 3 J11   9
 
4-3 Ms16e Dewahayate Dewanoumi 29 15 J9   6
5-2 Ms17w Tokushinho Kise 34 19 J6   27
1-6 Ms20e Takaryu Kise 26 21 J13   1
2-5 Ms22w Higonojo Kise 34 28 J9   4
2-3-2 Ms23w Ura Kise 26 6 M4 5 6
3-4 Ms25e Kitaharima Yamahibiki 32 8 M15 1 24
5-2 Ms27e Sakigake Shibatayama 32 24 J10   5
1-6 Ms29e Tenkaiho Onoe 34 16 M8 7 22
4-3 Ms30e Asahisho Tomozuna 29 10 M11 4 30
 
3-4 Ms34e Keitenkai Onomatsu 28 38 J11   1
kyujo Ms36e Homarefuji Isegahama 33 3 M6 10 28
2-5 Ms37e Chiyoarashi Kokonoe 27 33 J10   4
6-1 Ms44e Tochihiryu Kasugano 31 6 J7   9
3-4 Ms59e Dairaido Takadagawa 38 74 J2   6
 
6-1 Sd1w Nionoumi Yamahibiki 32 33 M16 1 12
4-3 Sd7e Masunoyama Chiganoura 28 23 M4 13 12
7-0 Y Sd15e Asabenkei Takasago 29 4 J7   7
3-4 Sd17e Yamaguchi Miyagino 29 6 M16 1 18
3-4 Sd35e Hitenryu Tatsunami 34 44 J13   2
6-1 Sd54w Kaonishiki Azumazeki 40 44 J6   2
5-2 Sd69e Yoshiazuma Tamanoi 41 26 M12 3 18
kyujo Sd88w Terunofuji Isegahama 27 4 O 24 5
kyujo Sd90w Amakaze Oguruma 27 5 M13 1 18


After some glimmers of hope last year it's now starting to look quite unlikely that we'll be seeing Toyohibiki in a coloured mawashi again. Also sad to see the continued demise of the still young-ish ex-sekitori in Kokonoe-beya, combined record of 4-13-4 here for the trio.

Back-to-back 6-1 records for Fujiazuma, who should be ranked up at Ms2 next time for a possible shot at returning to the paid ranks with just 4 wins.

Edited by Asashosakari
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I'm expecting a Shimanoumi for Chiyoshoma exchange.  Yutakayama will benefit from the return of M17e.  Also, there are going to be a lot of new eager young faces at the top of Makushita next basho!

Edited by Ack!

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33 minutes ago, Ack! said:

I'm expecting a Shimanoumi for Chiyoshoma exchange.  Yutakayama will benefit from the return of M17e.

No chance Shimanoumi is promoted to Makkuuchi.

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1 hour ago, Ack! said:

The last 3 cases of 13-2 at J11 ended up in Makuuchi.  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=j11&form1_wins=13  I know history is not the only consideration...

History also shows that for the first of those three Kaiho was not demoted.

9-6 Kakizoe M14 Kaiho 6-9
7-8 Tochiozan M15 Wakakirin 10-5
11-4 JK Baruto M16 Kasuganishiki 7-8

And there really wasn't anyone else who had close to a promotable record for the third of the three open slots (and none of the three open slots were even close to borderline, except the 7-8 in the last position on the Makuuchi rankings, but Kasuganishiki had already had banzuke luck the prior tournament with a 7-8 at M16e).

Same with #2 - four must open slots in Makuuchi, and no one even close to promotable for the fourth position except the 13-2.

The 201607 tournament was more of a gift.  They maybe could have kept Osunaarashi or promoted Ura instead?

 

Looking at search results though, if Ura at 10-5 at J8w wasn't promotable above Amakaze with 13-2 at J11w (http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201607#J) [note that Ura lost to Amakaze], yet Tokushoryo at J8e with an 11-4 was exchanged with Chiyotairyu with 6-9 in the fifth-to-the-bottom position of Makuuchi (http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201701#J), then maybe  Shimanoumi with 13-2 at J11e is worth an exchange with Chiyoshoma with 6-9 in the fifth-to-the-bottom position of Makuuchi.  Chiyoshoma did lose a bout with Ishiura (J3w), so an argument could be made for that being an exchange bout.

 

Asashosakari has a ton more experience with these matters than I do, so let's see in a month.

 

Edited by itchyknee
spelling, grammar, Kasuganishiki

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2 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Takanofuji slipped back into Takanohana-beya (Cold...)

D'oh. I noticed that when I posted the first table for the basho and corrected it on the fly, but apparently I never fixed the spreadsheet. Thanks for the heads-up!

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1 hour ago, itchyknee said:

History also shows that for the first of those three Kaiho was not demoted.

9-6 Kakizoe M14 Kaiho 6-9
7-8 Tochiozan M15 Wakakirin 10-5
11-4 JK Baruto M16 Kasuganishiki 7-8

And there really wasn't anyone else who had close to a promotable record for the third of the three open slots (and none of the three open slots were even close to borderline, except the 7-8 in the last position on the Makuuchi rankings, but Kasuganishiki had already had banzuke luck the prior tournament with a 7-8 at M16e).

That 13-2 promotion for Ichihara may also have been a bit of a gift because he'd had such rough luck with not getting promoted out of makushita with strong records three times in a row before that. A bit of a different time anyway, back when they really didn't like to give out non-demotions on 7-8...nowadays somebody in Kasuganishiki's position would probably have a decent chance to survive if there's no really credible promotion candidate.

As for the Amakaze promotion after Nagoya 2016 due to a demotion for Osunaarashi that surprised pretty much everyone at the time: Since it's all water under the bridge as he's long gone from sumo and under less than savory circumstances to boot, I guess we can now talk about the rumour (I should really put that word in scare quotes there) that the excessively large demotion was allegedly punishment for him getting married during a trip back home without telling anybody in sumo beforehand, particularly not his stablemaster. So that case is probably not meaningful as precedent for anything; they had a spot to fill for non-competition reasons, and Amakaze just happened to be the one to profit from it.

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9 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

 As for the Amakaze promotion after Nagoya 2016 due to a demotion for Osunaarashi that surprised pretty much everyone at the time: Since it's all water under the bridge as he's long gone from sumo and under less than savory circumstances to boot, I guess we can now talk about the rumour (I should really put that word in scare quotes there) that the excessively large demotion was allegedly punishment for him getting married during a trip back home without telling anybody in sumo beforehand, particularly not his stablemaster. So that case is probably not meaningful as precedent for anything; they had a spot to fill for non-competition reasons, and Amakaze just happened to be the one to profit from it.

I remember the board mentioning the surprise at the time.  If true, that's a pretty sucky 'rumour'.  I'd be a bit nonplussed if a coworker didn't mention they were getting married, but it's hardly an offense.

Edited by itchyknee
clarity

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3 hours ago, itchyknee said:

I'd be a bit nonplussed if a coworker didn't mention they were getting married, but it's hardly an offense.

It's much more than that. It's essentially like not telling your own father that you're going to marry.

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36 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

It's much more than that. It's essentially like not telling your own father that you're going to marry.

My father was happy for us although I told my parents afterwards. 

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1 hour ago, Jakusotsu said:

It's much more than that. It's essentially like not telling your own father that you're going to marry.

No, it isn't.   No matter what the sumo tradition dictates, there is only one true father.   If Osu was further demoted for the rumored reason, he has a good case for contesting the decision.  I sure hope there's more to it than that.  Perhaps, he looks a lot older than his age may rubbed some old sumo masters the wrong way ;-).  

Edited by robnplunder
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5 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

It's much more than that. It's essentially like not telling your own father that you're going to marry.

And as far as I know, even sekitori require explicit permission from the shisho in order to marry, even if that's usually just a technicality. One may think it's an outdated thing to insist on, but as long as it exists it's hardly surprising that breaking the "rule" would come with punishment.

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8 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

And as far as I know, even sekitori require explicit permission from the shisho in order to marry, even if that's usually just a technicality. One may think it's an outdated thing to insist on, but as long as it exists it's hardly surprising that breaking the "rule" would come with punishment.

When I was in the US Navy, a similar rule was in place (it still is as of 2017 when I looked last). Anyone wanting to get married, was required to seek and receive their commands permission to marry. So not really that unheard of in highly structured hierarchical organizations.

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20 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

That 13-2 promotion for Ichihara may also have been a bit of a gift because he'd had such rough luck with not getting promoted out of makushita with strong records three times in a row before that. A bit of a different time anyway, back when they really didn't like to give out non-demotions on 7-8...nowadays somebody in Kasuganishiki's position would probably have a decent chance to survive if there's no really credible promotion candidate.

As for the Amakaze promotion after Nagoya 2016 due to a demotion for Osunaarashi that surprised pretty much everyone at the time: Since it's all water under the bridge as he's long gone from sumo and under less than savory circumstances to boot, I guess we can now talk about the rumour (I should really put that word in scare quotes there) that the excessively large demotion was allegedly punishment for him getting married during a trip back home without telling anybody in sumo beforehand, particularly not his stablemaster. So that case is probably not meaningful as precedent for anything; they had a spot to fill for non-competition reasons, and Amakaze just happened to be the one to profit from it.

And that, my friends, is the type of analysis you won't get anywhere else but here!

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