Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2019

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Juryo yusho race:

11-2 J11e Shimanoumi

10-3 ---

9-4 J3w Ishiura, J5w Toyonoshima, J6w Chiyomaru

It took until Day 13 this basho, but that's the juryo we all know and love - losses all around for the three contenders. Chiyomaru got surprised by a Kyokushuho uwatenage out of (almost) nowhere, Ishiura made an ill-advised decision to try to beat tall Hakuyozan by backpedalling, and Shimanoumi found himself pulled down powerfully by Tomokaze. Toyonoshima is back in the race due to these results combined with his own Day 13 victory over Tsurugisho (for which he needed a torinaoshi).

After a one-day break it's obviously time for Shimanoumi to face his pursuers again - after Toyonoshima on Day 12 it's now Ishiura for Day 14. Should he win we're done here a day early, of course, otherwise Ishiura and possibly also the other two 9-4's will have a chance to close the gap on senshuraku. Toyonoshima will need to defeat demotion candidate Jokoryu for that, while Chiyomaru goes against fellow big man Gagamaru.
 

Lower division yusho races (Day 13 results and links to video):

7-0  Ms3w Wakamotoharu (Arashio)
6-1 Ms53e Tochinobori (Kasugano)

7-0  Sd15e Asabenkei (Takasago)
6-1 Sd49w Kotoseigo (Sadogatake)
6-1 Sd75w Oisato (Minezaki)

7-0  Jd17w Hatooka (Kise)
7-0  Jd45e Hokutoo (Hakkaku)
6-1 Jd87e Yukiamami (Tatsunami)

6-1 Jk22e Yabuoka (Futagoyama)
7-0  Jk23e Roga (Futagoyama)

Jonokuchi is done without the need for a same-stable playoff after Roga had a super-easy victory to finish unbeaten while Yabuoka lost a very hard-fought battle against taller and heavier Kototsukahara. Congrats to the winner, and I do hope this basho's effort was good enough for Yabuoka to deserve a proper shikona again for his next time on the dohyo.

Jonidan is unsurprisingly not done yet, thanks to Hatooka fulfilling his role as the favourite down here. His sandanme opponent Oisato didn't make things easy for him, though. Hatooka's playoff opponent is Hokutoo who easily marched out Yukiamami earlier in the day's session. It's Hokutoo's very first zensho record after more than 10 years in sumo, while former collegiate rikishi Hatooka can achieve the Jk and Jd double here as he returns from injury.

Oisato's loss turned the later sandanme match into a yusho-deciding clash, and after the briefest of tussles this one was over quickly in favour of ex-juryo Asabenkei over sandanme regular Kotoseigo. From his position at Sd15 this should mean an immediate return to the extended makushita promotion zone for Asabenkei; we'll see in March and beyond if he's got something sekitori-worthy left in the tank or if this was just an underranked last hurrah.

And finally the makushita decision, which looked much like the one in sandanme. Wakamotoharu clinches his second makushita yusho (after Nagoya 2013) and third lower division yusho overall. I'm not fully convinced yet that he's got the same sekitori-quality potential as his brother who's already up in juryo, but at 25 years of age he still has enough time to prove that he does. Defeated Tochinobori has to be content with a 6-1 record and a return to the upper half of the makushita division for Haru.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Looks like Toyonoshima gets a free win and a big boost with Jokuryu going kyujo. That also means he will drop to Makushita for sure. Too bad.

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Well then, no extra appearance for Akua (or whomever) needed after all. Jokoryu possibly considering intai? This is a very strange moment to withdraw considering he didn't look outwardly injured yesterday...

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19 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Jokoryu possibly considering intai?

Say it ain't so Jok!

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What's his degree in?  He meets the criteria to be an elder (though no Kabu), but his career prospects based on the degree and his fame might be a better option.

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8 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Well then, no extra appearance for Akua (or whomever) needed after all. Jokoryu possibly considering intai? This is a very strange moment to withdraw considering he didn't look outwardly injured yesterday...

They say he broke his leg. Was on crutches this morning. No luck, this boy. 

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This has probably almost certainly been asked/answered elsewhere, but if Takakeisho is promoted to ozeki after this basho, how will he rank among youngest ozeki promotees?

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That says Hakuho was the 4th youngest since Showa era and was over a year younger than Takakeisho.  Another article I found said Asashoryu was 5th youngest, and the latter was several months younger than Takakeisho.  So Takakeisho is at best 6th youngest, and there may be others in that gap.

Edited by Gurowake
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I don't pretend to any understanding how the torikumi is made in reality. But I use several factors, the first being the general rule that the sanyaku and the joi have to face all of each other, minus anyone from the same heya, and that later on in the basho the win-loss score becomes a factor too when lower ranked maegashira with big scores may be picked to face a higher ranked rikishi than they would otherwise face. 
But then there is this other factor -- the torikumi makers finding pairings that they think the public would like to see...

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36 minutes ago, orandashoho said:

But then there is this other factor -- the torikumi makers finding pairings that they think the public would like to see...

The nakabi torikumi is often their gift to the fans.

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Well with 3 retirees and Jokoryu withdrawing it looks like 4 Juryo promotions in March.  With his win I think Aminishiki is safe and, although they probably should, I don't expect him or Yoshikaze to retire. There are 5 KKs in the top 6 in makushita and 3 of those are guaranteed promotions at this point. So the last spot looks to me like it comes down to Ryuoko. If he wins,  he's in. If he loses he can still get in if Takanofuji loses. If he loses and Takanofuji wins Ryoku is out and Takanofuji is in. Irodori is out of luck but he should be right there at Ms 1 with promotion for May in his own hands.

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3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

That says Hakuho was the 4th youngest since Showa era and was over a year younger than Takakeisho.  Another article I found said Asashoryu was 5th youngest, and the latter was several months younger than Takakeisho.  So Takakeisho is at best 6th youngest, and there may be others in that gap.

Just outside the top 10 at 22y 5m.

(Table 4) Youngest Ozeki Promotions (modern era)

  Rikishi Ozeki Debut Age Top Rank
1 Takanohana 3/93 20 yrs., 5 months Yokozuna
2 Taiho 1/61 20 yrs., 6 months Yokozuna
3 Kitanoumi 3/74 20 yrs., 8 months Yokozuna
4 Hakuho 5/06 21 yrs., 0 months (Ozeki)
5 Kashiwado 9/60 21 yrs., 7 months Yokozuna
6 Asashoryu 9/02 21 yrs., 9 months (Yokozuna)
7 Musashiyama 2/32 21 yrs., 10 months Yokozuna
8 Takanonami 3/94 22 yrs., 2 months Ozeki
9 Kitao 1/86 22 yrs., 3 months Yokozuna
10 Terukuni 1/42 22 yrs., 4 months Yokozuna

(Kyokai banzuke topics for Hakuho's promotion. They didn't do an age table for Asashoryu's so not sure who was 10th before Hakuho entered the list.)

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Of those, only Asashoryu started around the same age as Takakeisho.  I have no idea what that means, but most of those guys had much more time in Ozumo.

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Since 1949 (3+ basho/year):

Takanohana Koji 20.55 yo; Taiho 20.59; Kitanoumi 20.79; Hakuho 21.14; Kashiwado 21.75;

Asashoryu 21.93; Takanonami 22.34; Kitao 22.38; Wakanohana Masaru 22.61; Takanohana Toshiaki 22.70

Takakeisho is just under 22.5 yo today, so 9th on this list.

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2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Of those, only Asashoryu started around the same age as Takakeisho.  I have no idea what that means, but most of those guys had much more time in Ozumo.

I realize you're talking about time in professional sumo, but it's worth noting that Takekeisho has been doing competitive sumo, and winning at it, his entire life, so that should count for something as far as experience.

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42 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

I realize you're talking about time in professional sumo, but it's worth noting that Takekeisho has been doing competitive sumo, and winning at it, his entire life, so that should count for something as far as experience.

That must have been a rough pregnancy for his mom.

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Day 14 (results, text-only results):

12-2 Sw Tamawashi

11-3 Se Takakeisho

10-4 M8e Kaisei, M9w Endo, M10w Abi


(x) 0-4-i Kisenosato    Y1   Hakuho       10-4
    2-4-8 Kakuryu       Y2
     8-6  Takayasu      O1   Goeido        8-6
                        O2   Tochinoshin  0-5-9
    11-3  Takakeisho    S    Tamawashi    12-2

And then there were two. Aoiyama was a troublesome opponent for Tamawashi before he turned himself into a sanyaku mainstay over the last couple of years, but now their matchup proved only a minor challenge to our yusho leader, who moved up to 12 wins and can rely on his own strength to win the championship tomorrow. Takakeisho did ensure that the battle would continue to the final day, by winning quickly over Okinoumi.

Both active ozeki did move to kachikoshi territory today, Takayasu with an easy victory over understandably cautious Mitakeumi, and Goeido with only the effort required to pick up his freebie over withdrawn Hakuho. For both pretty much a basho to forget, in which they were majorly upstaged by the guys one rank down. But not being kadoban for March will provide some consolation.

A mini-playoff for sanyaku contention took place in the maegashira-joi ranks today: Nishikigi had the chance to assert himself as the frontrunner for promotion, but instead he's outright makekoshi now after Hokutofuji prevailed in a close decision. Hokutofuji himself clinched his KK with that success and should be certain to make his debut in the titled ranks in two months - only Kaisei can still beat him on the numbers, and it's very unlikely that they would promote an 11-4 from M8 over an 8-7 collected against the top-ranked competition.

Takakeisho's promotion to ozeki hasn't been closed as a done deal by the powers that be yet even after his 11th win today, but I would be quite surprised if it doesn't happen now, even if he loses his senshuraku match. That would/will open up a second sanyaku slot, and the list of candidates for that is a rather oddball one, with only rikishi ranked M6 and lower still in. Incumbent Myogiryu missed the opportunity to maybe stay at the rank with a 7-8 finish as he got blasted out by Chiyotairyu for his 9th loss today, and Ichinojo also is no option anymore after he sleepwalked into his MK-clinching 8th defeat against Onosho.

Former quasi-yusho contenders Kaisei, Endo and Abi were victorious on Day 14 and all moved up into double-digit win territory, with potential to still grab a share of the jun-yusho.

(x)  5-9  Myogiryu      K    Mitakeumi    8-3-3

                        M1   Ichinojo      6-8  (x)
(x)  6-8  Nishikigi     M2   Hokutofuji    8-6
                        M3
                        M4   Okinoumi      6-8  (x)
(x)  7-7  Aoiyama       M5
     8-6  Chiyotairyu   M6   Onosho        8-6
                        M7
    10-4  Kaisei        M8
                        M9   Endo         10-4

Hakuho's withdrawal has thrown the senshuraku torikumi into even more disarray than it already was set to have, and the schedulers even went as far as to give the final bout of the basho to Goeido instead of the higher-ranked ozeki Takayasu as customary. So, the basho will close with the pairing of Goeido and Takakeisho, but will it still matter? Tamawashi will have the opportunity to secure the yusho against Endo two bouts earlier. (To enable that higher-profile matchup, they're skipping the normally expected Tamawashi-Myogiryu bout.) In between those two bits of action, Takayasu will get to finalize his Hatsu campaign against Kaisei.

So, not exactly easy draws for the two 10-win contenders for sanyaku, perhaps handing the favourites' role to Chiyotairyu (vs 8-6 Takarafuji) and Onosho (vs 7-7 Meisei). Onosho may already be out of the running, however, depending on how they look at his rank and record in relation to Kaisei's.


On recent form one may have expected the opposite outcome, but it's Kotoeko who saved his makuuchi bacon today, not Kagayaki. The late-blooming Sadogatake rikishi (redundancy?) still has a chance to finish his second top division appearance with kachikoshi now. Kagayaki remains seated on the bubble, where he is joined by Yutakayama who also wasn't able to win on Day 14, falling to MK against Daieisho in a one-sided bout. Chiyoshoma avoided the possible trip to juryo for now, courtesy of a henka win over Sadanoumi. Kotoyuki did not return to action for the end of the basho and has become the third certain demotion, freeing up slot #5 in makuuchi.

A possible 6th opening will appear thanks to the senshuraku schedule, which sees Kagayaki and Yutakayama pitted against each other. That's somewhat crucial for one juryo rikishi in particular, namely Toyonoshima who earned his 10th win of the basho today. That's a promotable record by the numbers, but as it stands he could still finish as low as #6 in the promotion queue if everything goes against him on Day 15. So, 5 slots wouldn't be enough, but 6 should do it. Unlike Terutsuyoshi last time I don't expect to see him passed over in favour of a borderline maegashira (i.e. the loser of Kagayaki-Yutakayama) if it comes to that scenario, so I think it's safe to welcome back the 35-year-old veteran to the top flight after nearly three injury-marred years.

As implied by the previous paragraph, the promotion race has become quite crowded as we approach the finish line. Day 14 victories for Daishoho, Tomokaze and Chiyomaru have left all of them one win short of looking promotable, and with decent enough records already to fill the available 5 positions (but not necessarily the 6th). Daishoho could cap off a remarkable 10-basho KK streak with his makuuchi debut if he wins again tomorrow. Terutsuyoshi and Ishiura are of course already assured their promotions, despite losses today. (Third straight for Terutsuyoshi since his KK clincher, second in a row for Ishiura.)

A wildcard is presented by fresh yusho winner Shimanoumi who will also be promotable by the numbers with another shiroboshi, but may find himself overlooked in favour of the higher-ranked candidates.

(x) intai Takanoiwa     M9   
                        M10
                        M11
(1)  5-9  Kagayaki      M12
                        M13  Kotoyuki     4-7-3 (x)
(1)  6-8  Yutakayama    M14  Chiyoshoma    6-8  (1)
                        M15  Kotoeko       7-7  (o)
(x)  4-10 Daiamami      M16  Daishomaru    3-11 (x)

(o)  8-6  Terutsuyoshi  J1   Daishoho      7-7  (1)
                        J2
                        J3   Ishiura       9-5  (o)
(1)  9-5  Tomokaze      J4   Tokushoryu    7-7  (x)
                        J5   Toyonoshima  10-4  (o)
                        J6   Chiyomaru    10-4  (1)
                        ...
(1) 12-2  Shimanoumi    J11

They've given Shimanoumi a credible enough opponent for his otherwise meaningless 15th match, namely Chiyomaru. I do believe that if Shimanoumi wins that he'll be considered a higher-priority promotee than the big Kokonoe man at least, if not anybody else. Tomokaze can secure his promotion for good against Hakuyozan (J6e 8-6), while Daishoho goes against J9e Kyokutaisei in a 7-7 clash. Up in makuuchi it's the aforementioned Kagayaki-Yutakayama pairing and a tough match for Chiyoshoma against Kotoshogiku, placed 10 ranks higher.


Aminishiki has held on to his sekitori position at last, following a lengthy but ultimately victorious battle against Arawashi. It remains to be seen if he just had a rough couple of weeks here or if this was the precursor to a quick demise of his career in two months' time. Jokoryu was forced to withdraw from competition unexpectedly with a foot injury and didn't even get the chance to prevent his return to makushita today, so we're done here a day early with what should be 4 available spots in the second division.

Of course we've got 5 contenders for those, so barring further sekitori retirement announcements somebody will be the odd man out here. Not getting left out again this time is Daiseido who prevailed over Sokokurai up in juryo and should finally be getting back to the paid ranks, after two gut-wrenchingly close misses in the last couple of tournaments. Kiribayama missed the opportunity to make sure of his own promotion today with a loss to Kotokuzan that sees him close Hatsu basho at 4-3.

(o)  2-12 Aminishiki    J3
                        ...
(x) 1-9-i Takekaze      J12
                        J13  Jokoryu       5-9  (x)
                        J14

(o)  4-3  Daiseido      Ms1  Kiribayama    4-3
                        Ms2  Ryuko         4-2
     4-2  Takanofuji    Ms3  Wakamotoharu  7-0  (o)
                        Ms4
                        Ms5

Kiribayama may or may not be safe, anyhow, depending on how valuable his result is deemed relative to Takanofuji's, should he finish 5-2. There's normally a bit of a preferential treatment for those ranked Ms1, but it's a close run even with that bonus in this case. Of course, the rikishi formerly known as Takayoshitoshi may well not be fully out of the tsukebito-beating doghouse yet, so it's quite possible that any narrow decision will invariably go against him here. It might not end up mattering though if Ryuko loses his last match, which will be taking place in juryo against 7-7 Sokokurai (him again!). Takanofuji goes against former juryo Churanoumi.

-----

Juryo yusho race:

12-2 J11e Shimanoumi

11-3 ---

10-4 J5w Toyonoshima, J6w Chiyomaru

Although two of Shimanoumi's chasers were successful on Day 14, the one who mattered the most wasn't, namely Ishiura who faced the leader personally. Much like the day before Ishiura attempted to pull an opponent who had no inclination to get unbalanced by it, and was promptly marched out of the ring again. So this yusho is in the bag already for a rikishi who is quite a surprise winner - Shimanoumi's six previous juryo appearances hadn't even seen a double-digit record, and in fact only two of them were kachikoshi at all. As mentioned above I'm not sure the committee will be that gung-ho to move him up to makuuchi, but depending on how things go on senshuraku they might not have much of a choice in the matter.

As many as four rikishi could still take second place here, if Toyonoshima and Chiyomaru both lose; Ishiura and dethroned Kyushu yusho winner Tomokaze are the duo that stands at 9-5.


In addition to all this, senshuraku will of course also see the deciding playoff match in the jonidan division between Hatooka and Hokutoo. It's up to Takakeisho and Tamawashi whether it will remain the only playoff to happen in this tournament.

Edited by Asashosakari
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1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

senshuraku will of course also see the deciding playoff match in the jonidan division between Hatooka and Hokutoo

Hatooka, Hokutoo on Senshuraku sounds like the title for a Dr. Seuss book. :-D

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Takekeisho's loss ensuring a stay at Sekiwake makes the sanyaku picture very clear and easy, whereas it was going to take an oddball 10-5 jump from M8 for Kaisei or 8-7 jump from M6 to Komusubi if Tak made Ozeki this go around. Not unheard of, but definitely a stretch.

Probably best for Takekeisho to wait one more basho. If he gets 10/11 next time its an easy justification. If he doesn't, then it's probably a sign it would have been too early to promote him anyway. 

 

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1 hour ago, Tiger Tanaka said:

Takekeisho's loss ensuring a stay at Sekiwake makes the sanyaku picture very clear and easy, whereas it was going to take an oddball 10-5 jump from M8 for Kaisei or 8-7 jump from M6 to Komusubi if Tak made Ozeki this go around. Not unheard of, but definitely a stretch.

Probably best for Takekeisho to wait one more basho. If he gets 10/11 next time its an easy justification. If he doesn't, then it's probably a sign it would have been too early to promote him anyway.

I just read the talk in the spoilers thread.  Too bad for Takekeisho.  At least he'll have a slightly easier time of it next basho.

He's got 33 wins (no fusen) as san'yaku over the last three tournaments, including a yusho, why wouldn't he be promoted?

Baruto didn't get it, but one of his wins was a fusen, bringing him down to 32 earned wins, and he had a big drop in his middle basho.

Miyabiyama was a former Ozeki, so it makes sense they'd want to see if he had the staying power.

Kotogahama had a record that was ratcheting down on a banzuke with 4 yokozuna and 3 ozeki already.  And maybe things were different in 1957/8.

7/10 of the modern era wrestlers with K-S-S records of 33 (or below) were promoted to ozeki, including all of them who had a yusho in that streak.

Plus with Takayasu and Goeido grinding, only 5 active Y/O (one of whom is kadoban), and the retirement of the only Japanese yokozuna, they need some excitement for the next basho.

		1			2			3			4		
Rikishi		Date	Rank	Record	Date	Rank	Record	Date	Rank	Record	Date	Rank	Record
Dejima   	1999.03	K1w	9-6	1999.05	S2e	11-4	1999.07	S1w	13-2 Y	1999.09	O2e	10-5
Takanosato	1981.09	K2wHD	10-5	1981.11	S1e	11-4	1982.01	S1e	12-3 J	1982.03	O1w	11-4 J
Masuiyama	1979.09	K1e	8-7	1979.11	S1w	11-4	1980.01	S1e	12-3 J	1980.03	O1e	3-5-7
Kitanoumi	1973.09	K1e	8-7	1973.11	S1e	10-5	1974.01	S1e	14-1 Y	1974.03	O1e	10-5
Takanohana	1972.05	K1e	11-4 J	1972.07	S1w	12-3 J	1972.09	S1e	10-5	1972.11	O1w	9-6
Kiyokuni	1969.01	K1w	10-5	1969.03	S1w	9-6	1969.05	S1w	12-3 J	1969.07	O1e	12-3 Y
Kotozakura	1967.05	K1e	10-5	1967.07	S1w	11-4 J	1967.09	S1e	11-4	1967.11	O2eHD	8-7
Mitsuneyama	1953.01	K2wHD	10-5	1953.03	S2eHD	11-4	1953.05	S1e	12-3	1953.09	O2eHD	8-7
												
Baruto  	2009.09	K1e	12-3	2009.11	S1e	9-6	2010.01	S1e	12-3 J	2010.03	S1e	14-1 J
Miyabiyama	2006.03	K1w	10-5	2006.05	S1w	14-1 D	2006.07	S1e	10-5	2006.09	S1e	9-6
Kotogahama	1957.05	K2wHD	12-3 J	1957.09	S2wHD	11-4	1957.11	S1e	10-5	1958.01	S1e	11-4

 

Edited by itchyknee
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What's missing here is strength of victories within the context of the run though. I'd argue Baruto's run had stronger claim even with the fusen. He beat Hakuho and all three Ozeki in his 3rd tournament in your query. During the run, Takekeisho had the following record by rank

  • Y: 2-3 (One against Kisenosato, during his 0-5 basho where he looked at Juryo level)
  • O: 3-5
  • S: 3-2
  • K: 3-1
  • M: 22-1

That's about as imbalanced as it can get. Also, minor discrepancy, but Takekeisho's run has been K-K-S, this basho was his debut at Sekiwake. Only two others have those criteria, both made Ozeki, but the key there is both also had a stronger strength of victory compared to the above.

For the record, I hope Takekeisho makes Ozeki. I think both he and Mitakeumi eventually make it as the Y/O group continues to age and compile injuries. The only barrier to this is if some of those promising rikishi rising quickly in the lower ranks make sanyaku in the next 12-18 months, making 11 wins per basho more challenging than it currently is.

Edited by Tiger Tanaka
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Wow, I can't believe I overlooked that this was his first tournament as sekiwake.

Thanks for the rationale Tiger Tanaka.

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23 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Just outside the top 10 at 22y 5m.

(Table 4) Youngest Ozeki Promotions (modern era)

  Rikishi Ozeki Debut Age Top Rank
1 Takanohana 3/93 20 yrs., 5 months Yokozuna
2 Taiho 1/61 20 yrs., 6 months Yokozuna
3 Kitanoumi 3/74 20 yrs., 8 months Yokozuna
4 Hakuho 5/06 21 yrs., 0 months (Ozeki)
5 Kashiwado 9/60 21 yrs., 7 months Yokozuna
6 Asashoryu 9/02 21 yrs., 9 months (Yokozuna)
7 Musashiyama 2/32 21 yrs., 10 months Yokozuna
8 Takanonami 3/94 22 yrs., 2 months Ozeki
9 Kitao 1/86 22 yrs., 3 months Yokozuna
10 Terukuni 1/42 22 yrs., 4 months Yokozuna

(Kyokai banzuke topics for Hakuho's promotion. They didn't do an age table for Asashoryu's so not sure who was 10th before Hakuho entered the list.)

Goes to show that sumo is really a young man's sport.

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23 minutes ago, itchyknee said:

Wow, I can't believe I overlooked that this was his first tournament as sekiwake.

Thanks for the rationale Tiger Tanaka.

No worries - good discussion! I'm still surprised there wasn't further deliberation though. And I'd put his chances at making Ozeki after next basho at 60-70%. 

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