Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2019

[itchyknee 41]

4 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

And as far as I know, even sekitori require explicit permission from the shisho in order to marry, even if that's usually just a technicality. One may think it's an outdated thing to insist on, but as long as it exists it's hardly surprising that breaking the "rule" would come with punishment.

Is this retired rikishi (oyakata) pretending they're daimyo, or is it in traditional in Japan for teachers and employers in general to have this sort of power?

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,204]

7 hours ago, itchyknee said:

Is this retired rikishi (oyakata) pretending they're daimyo, or is it in traditional in Japan for teachers and employers in general to have this sort of power?

Yeah something similar happens with employers. I dunno if it's explicit permission but not informing them very early on seems very rude, and I've heard of people getting bitched at for timing or partner selection. Timing of having kids is similar. I also witnessed first hand a guy get yelled at for moving his family with him when he got transferred continents for a 5 year period "they're just going to distract you!"

Though it should be pointed out this is one of the things that seems to be quickly changing in Japan over the last 5 years. A lot of social changes initiated by the current government.

[Morningstar 117]

16 hours ago, itchyknee said:

Is this retired rikishi (oyakata) pretending they're daimyo, or is it in traditional in Japan for teachers and employers in general to have this sort of power?

It is actually very logical, if you understand how Heya organized, ran, and administered. And similar requirements are common in other organizations with similar structure.

 

Basically, the Heya is treated as an extended family grouping. The controlling oyakata is the homeowner/family head. The Rikishi live in his house, eat his food, and practice in his dojo. To bring another member in (by marriage) requires the homeowners permission. The same as if you wanted to have your boy/girlfriend move in with you into your parents house. Having a spouse can greatly disrupt the communal living, if things are not managed correctly. 

 

For Sekitori who are allowed to maintain a living space outside of the Heya, this request is generally a formality. Yet, one that should be followed. 

[Gurowake 3,791]

For the first time since Ichinojo's Sekiwake debut Aki 2014, there will be no rikishi of the same heya in sanyaku.  Since then, it's been mostly prevented by Kisenosato-Takayasu and Harumafuji-Terunofuji, with a few others before the last one developed.  Prior to that there was also Natsu 2014, right after Kotooshu retired; the gap in Nagoya was filled by both Aminishiki-Harumafuji and Tochiozan-Aoiyama.  Before Kotooshu retired, you'd have to go back quite a long way because of Kotoshogiku, back to Aki 2010.  And then that was also the first one in a while because Kotomitsuki retired the tournament before that - the next previous was Natsu 2005.  Back from there I count five, a veritable bonanza, after Musashimaru retired, which ended him with Musoyama, which went back to before Wakanohana retired, who was there with Takanohana since 1993.  I'm not going back any further, but it's clearly been rare the last few decades.

But it might start becoming a habit as there's no obvious long-term candidates.  Tochiozan or Aoiyama with Tochinoshin is probably the most likely, and those will be sporadic, particularly if Tochinoshin doesn't get well, and all three of them are getting old.  Myogiryu with Goeido just happened as well and we might expect it in the future sometimes.  But again, they're both old.  After that is a slight hope of Okinoumi and Hokutofuji, but afterwards you have to be positing those who have never made sanyaku with those not sanyaku regulars, like Daieisho with Endo or Nishikigi with Ikioi.  We'll probably have to wait for some new blood.

Edited February 1, 2019 by Gurowake

[Jakusotsu 5,501]

4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

After that is a slight hope of Okinoumi and Hokutofuji, but afterwards you have to be positing those who have never made sanyaku with those not sanyaku regulars, like Daieisho with Endo or Nishikigi with Ikioi.  We'll probably have to wait for some new blood.

There's also Shodai and Yutakayama.

[Rocks 1,799]

8 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

There's also Shodai and Yutakayama.

Both next Ozekis.

Edited February 1, 2019 by Rocks

[shumitto 418]

They can give a not very young (Shimanoumi, 29) but fairly motivated rikishi a chance at proving himself in Makuuchi. Either Yutakayama or Chiyoshoma, both lackluster, would have to give way. It is a no brainer, I think, but the Kyokai will probably play conservatively again like they did last time with Daishomaru/Terutsuyoshi.

Shimanoumi would likely bomb anyway, but why not be more aggressive with this promotion/demotion thing.

On a side note, I am happy for Daiseido. I have watched very few bouts of him, and in none of them he gave me the impression of being long-term sekitori material, but he's deserved his chance.

Edited February 2, 2019 by shumitto

[robnplunder 974]

On 01/02/2019 at 07:35, Rocks said:

Both next Ozekis.

I can't see Shodai making to Ozeki.   His sumo style is already set and it is not the stuff of Ozeki.   I especially don't like his "head high" tachi-hai.   Takarafuji has that same approach, he is stronger of the two, and AFAIK, he is not an Ozeki.  

It's too early to tell for Yutakayama although he seems to have run into a wall already.  

[Asashosakari 18,158]

On 01/02/2019 at 03:13, Gurowake said:

For the first time since Ichinojo's Sekiwake debut Aki 2014, there will be no rikishi of the same heya in sanyaku.  Since then, it's been mostly prevented by Kisenosato-Takayasu and Harumafuji-Terunofuji, with a few others before the last one developed.  Prior to that there was also Natsu 2014, right after Kotooshu retired; the gap in Nagoya was filled by both Aminishiki-Harumafuji and Tochiozan-Aoiyama.  Before Kotooshu retired, you'd have to go back quite a long way because of Kotoshogiku, back to Aki 2010.  And then that was also the first one in a while because Kotomitsuki retired the tournament before that - the next previous was Natsu 2005.  Back from there I count five, a veritable bonanza, after Musashimaru retired, which ended him with Musoyama, which went back to before Wakanohana retired, who was there with Takanohana since 1993.  I'm not going back any further, but it's clearly been rare the last few decades.

It was exceedingly rare before 2004:

 

[Gurowake 3,791]

3 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

It was exceedingly rare before 2004:

 

Good that you were able to recognize then that Kotomitsuki-Kotooshu-Kotoshogiku was a possibility to keep it extremely rare for a while.

[Asashosakari 18,158]

6 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Good that you were able to recognize then that Kotomitsuki-Kotooshu-Kotoshogiku was a possibility to keep it extremely rare for a while.

Most parts of that post didn't age particularly well though. The wild west days of trying to figure out what was going on in the lower divisions without the benefit of the Sumo DB...

In any case, the best bet right now might be Chiganoura. "Only" needs Takakeisho to not implode and one of their other young guys (Takanosho and the twins) to develop into a joi regular. (The real shame as always is how many potentially high-caliber rikishi Kokonoe-beya has had in recent years, with practically all of them felled by injuries.)

Edited February 3, 2019 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 3,791]

Looking at those near the top of the banzuke born 1994 or later.  As I went lower in the banzuke I ignored some of the older guys:

Biggest possibilities in my mind:

Oguruma: Yago, Tomokaze

Tatsunami: Meisei, Hoshoryu, (Kitadaichi)

Chiganoura: Takakeisho, Takanosho, Takanofuji, Takagenji, (Takakento)

 

Lesser possibilities:

Hakkaku: Satoyama (I'm keen on this guy, and Hokutofuji is a long-term possibility, so I'm leaving this here)

Takadagawa: Kagayaki, Hakuyozan, Shonannoumi

Arashio: Wakaktakakage, Ko'tokuzan

 

The "they had two guys show up on this" list:

Isegahama: Terutsuyoshi, Nishikifuji, Midorifuji, Hikarifuji

Michinoku: Kiribayama, Kirinoryu

Nishikido: Gokushindo, Honda

Asakayama: Kaisho, Kurahashi

Sadogatake: Kotokamatani, Kototebakari

Kise: Kizakiumi, Inoue (plus Churanoumi)

Tokitsukaze: Hamayutaka, Shohoryu, Ohata, Tsushida, (plus Shodai, Yutakayama)

Sakaigawa: Sadanohana, Hiradoumi

Shikoroyama: Abi, Oki, (plus Irodori)

 

From among others that might have a long-term future in sanyaku, no one else showed up from Dewanoumi (Mitakeumi), Onomatsu (Onosho), Minato (Ichinojo), Takasago (Asanoyama).  Oitekaze might in the short-term catch Endo, Daishoho, Daieisho, and maybe one of the other random doofuses (Daiamami, Daishomaru, Tsurugisho, Tobizaru) but it doesn't look too likely right now.

Edited February 3, 2019 by Gurowake

[Rocks 1,799]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

In any case, the best bet right now might be Chiganoura. "Only" needs Takakeisho to not implode and one of their other young guys (Takanosho and the twins) to develop into a joi regular. (The real shame as always is how many potentially high-caliber rikishi Kokonoe-beya has had in recent years, with practically all of them felled by injuries.)

A very good bet I would say. Takakeisho is going to be there for a while it seems.  I think that there will be one or both of the twins revolving in and out of Sanyaku on a regular basis eventually. The Twins have all they need physically, they just aren't particularly good at technique yet. There are flashes of excellence but they look awful almost as much. If they get down a dominate style they will be in makuuchi for a good long while I would think. There is always the risk of injury but their physical makeup is very good in that regards. 

[Rocks 1,799]

9 hours ago, robnplunder said:

I can't see Shodai making to Ozeki.   His sumo style is already set and it is not the stuff of Ozeki.   I especially don't like his "head high" tachi-hai.   Takarafuji has that same approach, he is stronger of the two, and AFAIK, he is not an Ozeki.  

It's too early to tell for Yutakayama although he seems to have run into a wall already.  

Seems like everybody, besides Kotoyuki, is the Next Ozeki lately. 

[Rainoyama 1,157]

On 01/02/2019 at 08:01, Jakusotsu said:

There's also Shodai and Yutakayama.

 

On 01/02/2019 at 16:35, Rocks said:

Both next Ozekis.

 

12 hours ago, robnplunder said:

I can't see Shodai making to Ozeki.   His sumo style is already set and it is not the stuff of Ozeki.   I especially don't like his "head high" tachi-hai.   Takarafuji has that same approach, he is stronger of the two, and AFAIK, he is not an Ozeki.  

It's too early to tell for Yutakayama although he seems to have run into a wall already.  

Shodai has been really frustrating to say the least. He looked really good at first until he reached sanyaku exactly two years ago ( Hatsu 2017 - Sekiwake west 7-8 ) and has been mediocre since but still good enough to stay close to the top ( 6 basho at M3 or M4, only three basho under M4 - two M5 and one M7) banzuke luck helping sometimes.  He has been unable to return to sanyaku since he dropped from Komusubi (Haru 2017).

He trains with top guys all the time but is losing a lot. I can't tell know what is the issue with him, is it lack of confidence, is it his weak tachi ai, is it because we hyped him too much and he actually reached his ceiling ? I'm still hoping he may get his act together someday, maybe he'll be better once a few more of the top guys retire, but maybe he just can't be better than this.

[robnplunder 974]

48 minutes ago, Rainoyama said:

 

He trains with top guys all the time but is losing a lot. I can't tell know what is the issue with him, is it lack of confidence, is it his weak tachi ai, is it because we hyped him too much and he actually reached his ceiling ? I'm still hoping he may get his act together someday, maybe he'll be better once a few more of the top guys retire, but maybe he just can't be better than this.

I think he needs to start with his tachi ai.   It's weak alright.   Can he fix it?   I doubt it.  Athletes don't/can't change their style easily.   I think he reached his ceiling of reaching sanyuku occasionally.  He will top out at Sekiwake which is still good.  

 

[Churaumi 707]

He’s a weak zebra, but when you consider he’s a weak zebra maintaining his place among the elite in his sport it gives perspective. I think if he didn’t come to makuuchi with the hype he would just be thought of as a middling maegashira, which is what he is.

[Asapedroryu 200]

He has been in upper maegashira for a while and always manages to beat at least one ozeki every time (ok, it's mostly Tochinoshin and he has never performed at ozeki level, since in the rank). He just needs to figure out how not to lose to lower ranks so often and then he can start putting double digits.

[Koorifuu 786]

Who's to say that Tochiozan doesn't gambarize from now on and Tochinoshin waltzes his way to a 8-7 score next time around - with some surprising yorikiri wins against Takayasu and Goeido?

[Jakusotsu 5,501]

1 hour ago, Koorifuu said:

Who's to say that Tochiozan doesn't gambarize from now on...

Me.

[Churaumi 707]

I think he trashed his body getting up to ozeki and is paying the price now. Between aggravating old injuries and accumulating new ones he just doesn’t seem to have much left. I hope he gets his kk and sits, going kyujo for May and getting whatever surgeries he needs or just letting himself heal for a while. But, he doesn’t seem to be that kind of guy, and will continue to grind himself down.

[just_some_guy 236]

On 04/02/2019 at 08:32, Churaumi said:

I think he trashed his body getting up to ozeki and is paying the price now.

His body's been trashed for a while. The way I see it, he just had a run of unusually good health that allowed him to perform at his full potential and make Ozeki. Now he's back to being the walking wounded. It's a shame, but it seems to be his lot in life.

[Asashosakari 18,158]

A juryo guess, with good-to-great banzuke luck for basically everyone thanks to the hole left by the two makuuchi intai:

Shimanoumi (J11e 13-2 Y)   J1   Chiyomaru (J6w 10-5)
Kotoyuki (M13w 4-7-4)      J2   Enho (J8e 9-6)
Hakuyozan (J6e 8-7)        J3   Takagenji (J2e 6-9)
Daiamami (M16e 4-11)       J4   Tokushoryu (J4w 7-8)
Wakatakakage (J5e 7-8)     J5   Daishomaru (M16w 3-12)
Kyokushuho (J13e 9-6)      J6   Tsurugisho (J11w 8-7)
Azumaryu (J7e 7-8)         J7   Sokokurai (J12w 8-7)
Wakamotoharu (Ms3w 7-0 Y)  J8   Gagamaru (J14e 8-7)
Kyokutaisei (J9e 7-8)      J9   Chiyonoumi (J14w 8-5-2)
Akiseyama (J7w 6-9)        J10  Tobizaru (J10w 7-8)
Hidenoumi (J8w 6-9)        J11  Aminishiki (J3e 3-12)
Mitoryu (J9w 6-9)          J12  Arawashi (J10e 6-9)
Takanosho (J2w 2-4-9)      J13  Takanofuji (Ms3e 5-2)
Daiseido (Ms1e 4-3)        J14  Kiribayama (M1w 4-3)

[Eikokurai 3,431]

Truly great banzuke luck would be Shimanoumi making the instant leap to makuuchi, as Amakaze did when he won the Juryo yusho with 13-2 at J11w. Nagoya 2016 was a particularly bad basho for the bottom of the hiramaku, but that’s still a remarkable promotion.