Sign in to follow this  
Pandaazuma

Games Talk Hatsu 2019

Recommended Posts

10 hours ago, Rocks said:

Proper fusen placement is a key thing to learn in SG:

http://www.japanguide.info/sumo/bout.html?20191+11+1+3021

Not to say that it's not good advice (because it absolutely is), but it would have made no difference in that bout.  The tiebreak just would have come down to Takakeisho being lower ranked than Goeido in position 4.

Which is to say, it's still a tiebreak loss, even with proper placement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Haidouzo said:

Not to say that it's not good advice (because it absolutely is), but it would have made no difference in that bout.  The tiebreak just would have come down to Takakeisho being lower ranked than Goeido in position 4.

Which is to say, it's still a tiebreak loss, even with proper placement.

Ha! So it would! I didn't even notice. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

ISP could just as well feature Ichinojo's match every day...

Not really. Here's the pick distribution in Sekitoto so far:

Day 1:    Takayasu    67    Ichinojo    11
Day 2:    Kisenosato    27    Ichinojo    51
Day 3:    Ichinojo    3    Hakuho    74
Day 4:    Ichinojo    61    Goeido    12
Day 5:    Kakuryu    57    Ichinojo    16
Day 6:    Ichinojo    62    Tamawashi    12
Day 7:    Takakeisho    70    Ichinojo    5
Day 8:    Nishikigi    4    Ichinojo    73
Day 9:    Myogiryu    24    Ichinojo    52
Day 10:    Tochiozan    50    Ichinojo    23
Day 11:    Shohozan    16    Ichinojo    59
Day 12:    Hokutofuji    23    Ichinojo    52

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, somehow my used my default lineup in SG but I am sure I entered a daily lineup. That's just the cherry on top of an awful night.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Not really. Here's the pick distribution in Sekitoto so far (snip) 

I was referring more to the compete inability to predict which Ichinojo will show up each day. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I was referring more to the compete inability to predict which Ichinojo will show up each day. 

i don't get this "which ichinojo"-talk.....i guess ichinojo has the most predictable tachiai.... if the opononent gets in low and moves him back, he loses.....if not he is more likely to win........so.....for me ichinojo is the same every day......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pandaazuma now leads in Oracle. I will take a look at other possible yusho contenders later if I have the time.

Leader: Pandaazuma
Gansekiiwa -2
DeRosa -4
Bakanonou -5
Kotononami -6
Choshu-Yuki, Chishafuwaku -7
Gurowake -8
Unkonoyama -9
Haidouzo -11
Norizo -12
Asapedroryu -13
Kobashi -14
Torafuji -17
ScreechingOwl -18
Andonishiki -21

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Pandaazuma said:

Love how @Taka picked Hak as his loser in TTT. If only I were so prophetic. 

 

I really wish I could claim it but instead rather embarrassingly this was an extreme case of it better being lucky than good! 

At first I had picked the fusen bout and Mitoryu over Aminishiki as my two picks but even though at first I did have a strong feeling Hakuho could lose, when I started looking at other possible picks and considering the overall + - in the TTT Yusho race I started talking myself more and more into going with Hakuho (to win!) which increasingly seemed like the most rational pick. 

So I kept picking back and forth between Mitoryu and Hakuho and depending on what I ended up going with  I also had to change "to lose or to win" in the fusen bout and I guess I just accidentally ended up screwing things up and picking the opposite!

I think I've done similar once or twice over the years in TTT and fortunately for me, this time it worked out beautifully.

Edited by Taka
  • Like 2
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not that I have anything to brag about but this looks like an especially bad basho to be droning in the head to head games. Too many guys kyujo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm, just noticed that Day 10 obliterated the all-time winning percentage record in S4 with 96.9% winning players for the day (62/64). The old record stood since Nagoya 2014, where Day 1 had clocked in at 95.7% (67/70). No other days have topped the 90% mark.

On a vaguely related note, I see I'll be having the grand total of 5 rikishi to pick from for the final day, including such great options as Yoshikaze and Daishomaru...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Hmm, just noticed that Day 10 obliterated the all-time winning percentage record in S4 with 96.9% winning players for the day (62/64). The old record stood since Nagoya 2014, where Day 1 had clocked in at 95.7% (67/70). No other days have topped the 90% mark.

On a vaguely related note, I see I'll be having the grand total of 5 rikishi to pick from for the final day, including such great options as Yoshikaze and Daishomaru...

I picked Yoshi for today. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Hmm, just noticed that Day 10 obliterated the all-time winning percentage record in S4 with 96.9% winning players for the day (62/64). The old record stood since Nagoya 2014, where Day 1 had clocked in at 95.7% (67/70). No other days have topped the 90% mark.

I noticed the absurdly high win rate for Day 10 as well, and it seems strikingly out of the ordinary.  Let's take a look at the top picks of the day:

48: Kagayaki over Daishomaru.  One of the most-overranked rikishi in the division (thus unlikely to be picked so far) vs someone doing absolutely terrible.  (One person picked this the other way though)

39: Hidenoumi over Takekaze.  I might say almost the same exact thing as above.

28: Tamawashi over Nishikgi.  Sure, Nishikigi isn't doing terrible, but you have to pick the guys in the joi at some point.  Who else are you going to regularly pick against?

20: Kyokushuho over Tsurugisho.  Kyokushuho is the worst rikishi near the bottom of Juryo right now according to my numbers (though I have the higher-ranked Akiseyama slightly worse overall, as well as Takekaze, but he's not really in Juryo anymore), but he was 7-2 against Tsurugisho.  Now 8-2.

18: Ishiura over Aminishiki.  Aminishiki was doing about as well as Daishomaru.  Ishiura's not that bad, but, hey not everyone would have picked him yet.

11: Takarafuji over Kotoyuki

10: Shodai over Yoshikaze.  Shodai had mainly upper-ranked opponents before this.  Was he going to face anyone easier than the ailing Yoshikaze?

Other than Tamawashi-NIshikigi, just a convergence of poor rikishi against terrible rikishi that made a lot of people jump on the right bandwagons.  That Nishikigi lost as well (a 50-50 proposition is seems) added to it. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oracle Day 14:

Apart from the people I've been tracking, only Golynohana appears to have a chance of yusho. I don't think it is likely though.

My rough yusho prediction based on current standings...

Kotononami 65% chance
DeRosa 60% chance
Pandaazuma/Gansekiiwa 50% chance
Choshu-Yuki 15% chance
Gurowake/Bakanonou <1% chance

The others appear to be out of it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Pandaazuma said:

Oracle Day 14:

Apart from the people I've been tracking, only Golynohana appears to have a chance of yusho. I don't think it is likely though.

My rough yusho prediction based on current standings...

Kotononami 65% chance
DeRosa 60% chance
Pandaazuma/Gansekiiwa 50% chance
Choshu-Yuki 15% chance
Gurowake/Bakanonou <1% chance

The others appear to be out of it.

You realize these add up to way over 100%?  Over 200% even?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

On a vaguely related note, I see I'll be having the grand total of 5 rikishi to pick from for the final day, including such great options as Yoshikaze and Daishomaru...

Great start into the weekend - the 10 rikishi I had for today combined for 2 wins and 8 losses, so zero chance of winning the day. Can't imagine tomorrow will work out better.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

You realize these add up to way over 100%?  Over 200% even?

Is this a joke? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 24/01/2019 at 07:04, Asashosakari said:

ISP could just as well feature Ichinojo's match every day...

I did think about that..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Rocks said:

Is this a joke? 

What am I missing?  Am I completely misinterpreting something?  Not getting someone else's joke?  What?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

What am I missing?  Am I completely misinterpreting something?  Not getting someone else's joke?  What?

Haha....sorry for the confusion. I did it without thinking at all. It wasn't intended as a real mathematical forecast, just to give a rough idea of who is most likely to win. The numbers are arbitrary...with the margins between them intended to give people a very rough idea of who is in the driving seat. I didn't even think about calculating the correct odds  ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Pandaazuma said:

Haha....sorry for the confusion. I did it without thinking at all. It wasn't intended as a real mathematical forecast, just to give a rough idea of who is most likely to win. The numbers are arbitrary...with the margins between them intended to give people a very rough idea of who is in the driving seat. I didn't even think about calculating the correct odds  ;)

That's what I figured, but given that it's Oracle we're talking about, where you have to be mindful of the total wins you're distributing, I found it a bit ironic.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this